More Red Ink – Lots of Fear in the Markets

Lots of folks raising money today–plenty of fear about higher interest rates.

While the markets have a fair idea on where the Fed is going with short term interest rates there seemed to be a gap in investors thinking until the last few days–no one was talking about the quantitative tightening coming in September. Now everyone is talking about it and stirring up lots of anxiety in the ‘nervous nellies’.

My accounts are pretty darned red and I have given back 3/4% of what we had garnered the last couple of months (around 2-2.50% in gains).

Today I though that we would see a bit of a bounce in the S&P500 at some point during the day, but it is near the low of the day right now–off 2.09%. We’ll see if the last hour of trading shows a little bounce.

The 10 year treasury is up 4 basis points to 3.03%. Remember we will have lots of Fed folks shooting their mouths off in Jackson Hole this week and then on Friday we will have the release of the PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index) on Friday.

For today I am just watching, but will see if there are ‘bargains’ out there tomorrow.

13 thoughts on “More Red Ink – Lots of Fear in the Markets”

  1. I don’t even gauge day-to-day. This year my accounts are -3.6% but much better than the markets. Divvies still steady to increasing and I houseclean on market extremes. It’ll kill you to dwell on the daily stuff so I keep long term objectives in mind. For my commons, I have finally built a large amount of “boring” dividend payers that provide staples. A few dividend tech plays and a nice portfolio of preferreds. Keeping on keeping on!

  2. MANAGE THE MARKETS: Have you been pruning and raising cash?
    I considered exactly what I would own and at what price, kind of a, “I would hold that sucka til death” idea. OK…so why NOT place an exit door right there for some one to panic an a parachute sell? Many of the issues we talk about here are thinly traded.
    Perhaps the stage is set, at some unknown moment when you are down putting air in the tires, for a great selloff to kick in?
    I do think there is going to be another up wave in Petro related stocks. When? I do not know, but now that everyone’s attention is looking at that ring in the circus, I will look to set some sell orders there for people to reach for too.

  3. Just how this guy stays employed SMH 🙃 Cramer is just a stock picking moron court jester clown (I cleaned my description up and may be too subtle) and he one of the many things wrong with CNBC. The public’s perception is that the markets are nothing more then a casino and Cramer is; well we all know what he is https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-cramers-reit-picks-april-160608951.html
    Full disclosure (as I have am biased): He and his staff stole 2 cases of high end Mezcal for his Mexican restaurant from one of the companies I own that is the largest producer of Mezcal in Zacatecas, MX.
    Cramer said, “Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.”, I only wish he’d look in the mirror, I am Azure

    1. I gave up on the idiot box a long time ago. So much of a waste of time. Other sources not much better. Youtube at least has some good instructional videos. But just don’t get Tik Toc, or Reddit no offense AB

    2. I remember when I was a newly minted broker in training (i.e. sales training) we were presented with a scenario: Your clients own stock A…we have just published a mildly bearish research report. Do you advise clients to buy, sell or hold?
      The class was split almost evenly between buy, sell and hold…which I found scary.

      But the instructor said “That’s OK…I don’t care what your recommendation is…I just want you to have conviction!”
      That’s why Cramer is popular…he may not be right..but he has conviction.

  4. SPX – statistically, the worst time of the year to be long the market is July 17 – September 30. I’m not sure if that applies to preferreds to. Does any one have data on preferreds seasonal tendencies? Thanks

  5. “A mere flesh wound!” It was a far worse day for commons compared to preferreds/baby/terms. The canary preferreds (low coupon IG) were down -1.65%, which is a far cry from the worst day this year of -3.82% on June 13th. The median preferred was down -0.71%, babys/terms were down -0.53%.

    The big story of the day IMO was ICR-A which we discussed on the “Reader Initiated Alerts” page. It closed up a STAGGERING 21.3% to close at 21.32. Popular Seeking Alpha service “High Dividend Opportunities” put out a buy signal yesterday per JB/AZ. It took off in the pre-market trading and was up to 21.46 before regular trading started at 9:30AM Eastern. For those that got filled when early trading started, it would have bought steak dinners for all and maybe even my beloved Yugo. Let there be NO doubt that the HDO team can MOVE the markets on these low liquidity preferreds. Don’t think they would have as much influence on say a SP500 stock.

    One other comment: it is pretty rare for any preferred/baby/term to trade in the pre-market, so the volume alone, 13k shares, was at least a 3 sigma event, not to mention the price change which given today’s overall market was probably a 4 or 5 sigma event.

    1. Tex:

      Recommending illiquid high-yield preferreds is truly HDO’s specialty and where they have had the most success. When they go over their skis and reach for yield in C-corps (T, MO) and REITs (NLY, AGNC) their recommendations have been crushed. Recently they recommended REIT EPR on Seeking Alpha…right before the parent of Regal Cinemas (9% of rents) put out the word that a Chapter 11 filing is imminent.

      And when they decide to go into anything distressed it is almost always a disaster for their subscribers (PEI preferreds, WPG bonds, etc.)

      1. And i would posit Rob that the success they have comes only due to the illiquid nature of those issues. It allows them to establish positions before making their “recommendation” then privately announcing to their subscribers where the price runs up, then pumping to the rest of the sheeple via a public article who they dump their shares on before the volume drives up again and eventually the illiquid returns to reality

  6. Not a good day to login and look at my portfolio! Also not a good day to do anything rash…… My experience it all works out over the long run if you bought anything decent to start with.

  7. That’s not bad Tim. I am down about 1/3rd% for the day. Probably 1/2 that was from a stock I bought today. Was expecting it to drop, just picked a bad entry point. Probably more volatility tomorrow.

    1. Charles you had my hopes up as I was driving most of the day to head to a golf excursion and hadnt checked the markets. My spreadsheet I just checked was actually up a microscopic plus 0.07% today, so no apparent bargains yet in my little sandbox.

      1. Oh Grid, the flippin has been decent. Several stocks are anchored by buyout bids just need another bad day to grab some more. I want one more flip, don’t want to get greedy. As Tex mentioned on the preferred’s, my one Ute preferred was in the red and my bet on a spec stock was the balance of my losses. NG stocks were up or steady but they could break and my tune might change.

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