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5/8/2024
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Sold Truist Bank (TFC). 35% gain in a little over 5 month hold
hat tip to Brad Thomas’ crowd on that one
Off Topic …. re Schwab Street Smart Trdng Tool ….
Due to be transfered over to the new trading site.
Any posters @ Schwab, and have already made the transfer…. interested in how tough it was. Tia
Jim,
I heard that Streetsmart Edge will be going away and that we will need to transition to ThinkorSwim (from TDA acquisition).
I was thinking this morning about how I need to get started with TOS. Haven’t done anything, but I guess I should. I hate learning new tools.
i use StreetSmart Edge, and have done so for about 3 years now.
ToS does not show some info that I wanted on watchlists, like XD dates and Div Pay dates – one has to go to other screens for that. Not convenient.
Am presently using ToS under the PaperMoney setting, this is simulated trading so does not mess up your account settings.
I intend to use SSE up to the last day, then switch over to ToS.
You will need to allocate time & effort to customize your watchlists and layout, so do not wait to the last minute to try it out.
When I first came to schwab (bonch of years ago), schwab offered me a one-on-one help session to set up streetsmart edge. Great help.
I was coming from scottrade, and the guy on the phone was familiar with their tools and could talk me through getting SSE set up to do the things I had at scottrade, plus some other stuff I like.
I guess I should call to see whether they have that service available for ToS.
I am sure I can make ToS work, I just hate learning new tools/learning curve when the tools I have are adequate. (I still write right-handed after 60 years because that is what the Sisters beat into me. Just never wanted to take the time and effort to switch).
Global Indemnity Raises Quarterly Dividend 40% to $0.35 Per Share; Payable March 28 to Shareholders on March 21.
Note: GBLI will report earnings next week, I believe 3/13 BMO.
Also sold serial market under performer Hormel (HRL) for a cool 15% gain holding it a month and a few days. Will be looking at WTRG or WEC if they can dip back down some.
Always keep a fairly significant percentage of the portfolio in SPY but today I moved all of SPY holdings to RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight). Felt like this would be better going forward, sort of cashing in some of the Mag 7 gains a bit to become more of a 493 stock value play. Yield runs a tad under 2% also so a decent half percentage bump there too over SPY.
Enjoy your under performance.
micahc
That’s the fun/challenge from investing.
In every transaction, the buyer expects the price to rise, the seller to fall.
Both believe they are correct.
SPY has strongly outperformed RSP because of the Magic 7.
The Magic 7 now constitute 70% of SPY’s total value and its P/E is 45.7.
The P/E of the other SPY 493 is 19.
Which segment will perform better in 2024?
pigpile has made his bet.
Will he be right?
Not?
Westie, not really a matter for me of being right, more like the move was right for me. I have a few of the Mag 7 stocks already. Decided holding SPY made no sense at this time. More a portfolio adjustment, market coverage move—and yes the P/E discrepancy between those group of stocks does give this move a more value/defensive tone. Could last thru 2024, or not, of that I am unsure.
Cummins Offer To Exchange regarding Atmus Filtration Technologies Shares
Not having an easy time focusing yet, but anyone have an opinion on this offer???? I get the feeling that ATMU is considered a slow growth company so if you believe in CMI as a growth company, one might not want to swap any CMI shares for ATMU shares unless trying to capture a quick trade for attractive inducement to swap…. Anyone have an opinion? and apologies if this has already been discussed
Just read Warren Buffet’s shareholder letter. Such wisdom. He affirmed the tailwind of USA for investments along with compounding. Stated he will no longer invest in western utilities until it makes economic sense due to fire policies. Union wages exceeded inflation supported by Washington which reduced earnings. I hope all take the time to read.
I made one purchase of Berkshire in 2000 time frame; it is now a 7 figure amount and I am not at retirement age. I don’t know another country where I would have this opportunity. Grateful.
BMY Another of my Pharm / bio picks. I got in a couple weeks ago at 48.80 for the 5% yield
Here is some recent news. Tie in with MRK who is a heavy hitter.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4070991-bristol-myers-wins-eu-backing-expand-label-reblozyl
BMY meets my criteria of the under $50 investors club. I can buy more shares than the over $100 club and get more bang for the buck.
“BMY meets my criteria of the under $50 investors club. I can buy more shares than the over $100 club and get more bang for the buck.”
Charles – I hate to say this but your premise above (at least on common stock) is a fallacy. Think of it this way – you have BMY trading at $50, you have AVGO trading at $1300. You have $13000 to invest so you buy either 260 shares of BMY or 10 shares of AVGO
After a year, let’s say both stocks have paid a 3% dividend and increased 8% in price. so now you have:
BMY – Dividend received – 50 * 3% *260 = $390
BMY Value in a year – 50 * 1.08 *260 = $14,040
AVGO – Dividend received – 1300 * 3% *10 = $390
AVGO Value in a year – 1300 * 1.08 *10 = $14,040
Hopefully you were not being serious with that statement but I also would not want someone mislead by it. Thanks
11:11 AM EST, 02/21/2024 (MT Newswires) — ImmunityBio (IBRX) said Wednesday it has completed enrollment and initial follow-up for the safety phase of its investigational cancer vaccine for participants with Lynch syndrome, one of the most common hereditary cancer syndromes.
The study, which is sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, is moving to the randomized controlled phase, with a total of 186 participants expected when fully enrolled, the company said.
The trial is to test whether its Nant Cancer Vaccine comprising a tri-valent Adenovirus in combination with its IL-15 superagonist N-803 could potentially prevent colon and other cancers in individuals with Lynch syndrome, the firm said.
Shares of ImmunityBio were down more than 2% in recent trading
Charles – IBRX something to watch. Very nice gain from the beginning of the year. Stocks like IBRX are very high risk.
Very high risk. No kidding Dan
But then I have been involved for over 3 years when it merged with Nantkwest.
Maybe I should not have said anything.
Didn’t want everyone knowing my dark risk taking side.
Not everyone knows I am in bio tech besides oil stocks.
Waiting for the shorts to capitulate.
Mark Hulbert has a short contrarian opinion piece on Market Watch & Barron’s suggesting that it is too early to declare the banking crisis over, citing all the obvious reasons posted muchly on this message board and elsewhere (bond portfolios still underwater from high rates, commercial real estate still evolving, flare ups like NYCB.) He points to a study saying it often takes 3 years on average to see if all the fires are out, noting that it during the 2007-2009 financial crisis it was over a year from the first problems at Paribas in 2007 to the failure of Lehman in 2008.
Current sentiment: Given the choice between the “safety” and “stability” of undervalued preferred stocks and the popular but deflated net-lease REITs on the one hand and the performance of “risky” high-flying AI stocks on the other hand, IMHO 5% CDs and T-bills still look like a good choice for the conservative investor. Except, you know maybe Nvdia for only just a week or so…
“O Oysters, come and walk with us”
The Walrus did beseech.
“A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk,
Along the briny beach.”
The eldest Oyster looked at him,
But never a word he said:
Meaning … he did not choose
To leave the oyster-bed.”
— Through The Looking Glass / Alice in Wonderland
JMO. DYODD
WHR declared their dividend today. $1.75 in line with previous 9 qtrs. Ex-dividend 2-29-24
I think I will cash out my DFS shares,. I will have a nice gain, but the percentage gain will be more impressive than the dollar gain. I was hoping to hold forever, but this might be too good of an opportunity to pass up.
Capital One (NYSE:COF) confirmed on Monday that it agreed to acquire Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) in a stock-based deal valued at $35.3B, which will create the largest U.S. credit card company by loan volume.
“Our acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity to bring together two very successful companies with complementary capabilities and franchises, and to build a payments network that can compete with the largest payments networks and payments companies,” said Richard Fairbank, founder, chairman and CEO of Capital One.
Under terms of the deal, each DFS holder will get 1.0192 shares of COF, representing a premium of almost 27% based on Discover’s closing price of $110.49 on Feb. 16, 2024.
News this weekend that Gen Z has been carrying higher debt on credit cards and not paying it down. Also auto loans with late payments are at their highest in 30 years
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/auto-loans/late-car-payments-heavy-loan-rates/
At some point during 2023’s 2nd 1/2 steep equities run-up, daily-delight began to transform into sobering caution as excess exuberance and FOMO appeared to have a hand at the table. To reduce potential volatility have hedged every position, some for the second and third time. Lance Roberts adds color to the recent market run-up, some historical comparisons and valuation considerations:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/theory-of-reflexivity-and-does-it-matter/
Best wishes to all for sustained gains.
Alpha one comment then I will get back to reading the article. So my rudimentary thoughts that the market for the majority of investors is ruled by emotions and most dance to the music and rush to grab seats when it ends. Someone else has put it into more words and shows it in charts.
Beautifully said Charles.
Dividend King Leggett & Platt (LEG) down almost 10% this morning. 51 yr dividend raise streak. Putting this one on the watch list. Also starting to look at WEC and PNW to possibly add to the utility bag.
ADM is down hard again on news of The U.S. Justice Department looking into their accounting practices.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-justice-department-probing-180540193.html
I picked up a few shares for a trade today. Hopefully the stock will rebound some. This will not be a LT hold.
I never pulled the trigger on Disney. WSJ reports: Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) (NASDAQ:FOXA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) are teaming up on a joint venture to produce a streaming platform that would share sports assets. I am not clear where this will stream?
I highly recommend on YouTube “Great Quarter Guys” following episode: https://youtu.be/OTIZy6Ph0-A?si=VS6S6PpYGO6qoN8L
I learned much but my big take away is I need to understand the Google YouTube potential. As normal, my sons ditched and now use YouTube for all streaming; I bought NVIDIA and COSTCO due to them. The other take away is my beloved Microsoft is validating AI results with financial gains. Apple is flat but will recover once it truly incorporates AI. Facebook (which I sold in disgust but left the holding in retirement as I would not get a tax loss,) continues to be an advertisement juggernaut. Would be interested in others take away. One person can hear the same information with a totally different take away.
I thought I was about finished flipping ADM.
I had sold in the $56.x range all but a couple hundred shares that I had on a GTC sell order over $57. Guess I was a little too greedy.
For better or worse, it looks like I am back in again because my $52.8 “stink bid” buy filled today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvzdehnJA9k
Hopefully it will continue to be profitable.
Laissez les bons temps rouler!
Anyone have UGI? Up over 12% midday. That’s not a move you see every day in this one. Not that I’m complaining.
Initiated a long sought after position in Polaris (PII) this morning.
Almost pulled trigger on Haverty (HVT) but going to sit it out some more, maybe get a further dip.
What is your objective with Polaris, is it a trade or longer term hold?
My objective is to buy quality companies that are shareholder friendly. I’m not sure at this moment if it will be long term hold. My guess at this time would be no.
WHR is scaring investors
Competition is heating up from China. ELUXY one of it’s competitors from Europe in the high end appliances just posted a loss. WHR is trying to sell it’s India division to pay down debt. See Private’s comments on doing business in India. Large portion of it’s sales affected by exchange rates.
Yet look at it’s dividend history. From 1995 to 2003 8yrs of no increase but steady payment with no cuts. 2004 it increased the divy and paid it for 7 yrs with no cut or increase through the GFC in 2011 it started increasing it again.
Now, I haven’t bought common stocks in a Coon’s age but with the next dividend coming up it seems a risk worth taking.
Another one for Bea, I dabbled into BTG @$2.69 last week. One of the very best SA analysts Taylor Dart has a great article out on them and I was convinced this pup was ready to buy. I know you follow the miners as I have eagerly read some of your comments.
NEM and AEM are getting there and will soon be a part of the pig pile 100
thanx PP, yes B2 Gold (US BTG (Canada:BTO) ) is in my portfolio, my basis is around US$3, I added a chunk on the selloff last week at 2.67. Holding in my IRA, the yield is about 6%, pays US$.04/q w e No div w/holding tax in Roth/TradIRA on CA c corps.
I know Taylor doubled down on his position. I have AEM, NEM as well, w low basis luckily in both, also div payers. Taylor is an exceptional young man who mostly covers mostly miners but also other values he finds for SA and his service. One of the few who consistently publishes his results , his 29 month result vs the high of the GDX etf is 134% total gain. Been playing in miners since about 1982, the Sunshine Silver Mine was my first. Still learning; I limit my allocation and diversify now that I am retired. When the big bucks were flowing in I took more risk cause I could replenish funds.. but now capital preservation, Tim/Warren’s rule 1 dominate and no more than 3% to any one name… but Anyway, kickoff time! take care. B
Just initiated a position in York Water (YORW).
Boring is beautiful.
Followed that up with new positions in SJW and ARTNA. Water seems to be my theme of the day. Hopefully forever holds.
These water utes are coming back down to earth and do look interesting; in discussion about sticky long term holds, probably no greater low beta sector than water utilities with their investors. My only concern is high capex replacement costs given material, labor etc. and the ability of the utes to obtain the rate increases necessary to accomplish this and continue to grow the modest low yields. Appreciate the posts PP letting me review these tickers which I had relegated into neverland with low yielding REIT names. Definitely worth a look!
I have been building a little ute portfolio in taxable a/c one name is my NWN is yielding 5.03% on close Friday 1/26 around where my basis is- w small long hx of div raises; along the water ute discussion, they have been building a water ute portfolio within the company that is growing. This is part of my move from MMKT to some div payers w qual divs in taxable for income streams to reinvest. Bea
Our local water utility offers plumbing insurance for major problems both inside and outside our home. I don’t know how popular this is nationally, but it seemed to me a way to build profit much the way our gas or electric utility offers major appliance insurance.
Bea, WTRG pays a little more yield than the few PP mentions. Also that other site pointed out the high debt ARTNA holds and has to service. Rate payers are getting tired of the constant increases. Labor costs especially have risen.
The stock chart for ARTNA doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. In the past year you would have lost 50% of your capitol if you held the stock. Take a lot of dividends to make that up. Could the stock go lower?
SJW has lost almost 25% in the past year, YORW has lost 20% in the past year.
With higher interest rates people are asking for higher returns so if I was to guess people are selling (rotating out ) of lower yielding stocks. Maybe into CD’s ? 5% and just as safe? Just kidding
I did look for bonds for these water utes, didn’t have much luck so I might not have the symbols. But WTRG has several that pay more than the common.
Charles, WTRG plays games with me. I did manage to sell awhile back in the high 40’s but missed my opportunity to buy back in low 30’s. Aaaargh!!!! the ONLY reason I didn’t pick this one up last week was a probably hopeless hope that it can dip to 33 again. But then again, if it does, then I’m sure the ones I did buy would also dip in unison.
PP NWN has a lot of bonds outstanding so a lot of debt. They need more water hookups and less gas. If interest rates stay high and NG prices stay low they are going to struggle. Not saying the common would get cut. As for WTRG, Hope you get the growth in the share price like you did the last time. Personally I would look at holding the bond.
Agree about the WTRG bond if someone wants to be in this space. 2052 maturity/5.6ish cy/S&P A-/29670GAG7.
Yes Pickler, 5.6% for an A- isn’t bad is it. Last trade 1/26/2024 Just need to watch it or call it in.
Hi Bea, yes good to hear you are doing some research and DD. I’m starting to nibble at these with intention of long term holds (water and regular Utes). NWN is definately a pig pile favorite.
Saw you mentioned over on the other site your desire for a water ute ETF. My thoughts exactly. Guess we have to resign ourselves to a no fee self ETF of our making.
York Water, which is the oldest investor-owned utility in the nation, has never missed a dividend in over 207 years. This is believed to be the longest record of consecutive dividends in America.
YORW is 7x revenue and 2x book.
Divvie is 2.3%
It’s down 22% in the last year.
What is the attraction?
YORW has zero attraction to me
But I suppose others may look at it as a SWAN that has paid out dividends (albeit minimal) for ages. And look at the 22% decline in price and think there may be capital gain potential if it rebounds
To me, a lot of utilities underperformed the last year and there are better options to bet on with better dividend yields that are also SWANs
But to each their own – that is what makes the market
Water is expensive, it’s tough to get them at what we would consider normal valuations, YORW is close to a 22 yr low PE. I thought it was a good time to start nibbling. The div % doesn’t concern me, it’s a dependable div that gets raised every yr at roughly the same percentage. I generally buy when others are selling, so YORW down 22% in the last yr is not a reason for me to stay away, it’s actually a reason for me to be interested and start researching. This company is a steady grower with excellent mgmt. I also like to buy companies where it’s very easy for me to purchase more if it goes down from my initial buy. In this particular instance I’m looking for a company that has the potential for a multi-decade hold. I don’t consider the fact others might not be interested as all that relevant in my decision to buy.
My Equity-Income Portfolio:
When I was younger I used to run several Equity-Income portfolios professionally, now in retirement I just do it for myself. Like most on this site I am fond of dividends, but I’ve learned over 40 years that dividend growth and share repurchases are at least as important as current yield. The real key in equity investing is the ability to grow revenues and return capital to shareholders (via dividends or share repurchases).
When constructing an equity portfolio I want my portfolio to have a yield at least 50% higher than the S&P 500 (if the S&P 500 yields 1.5% then I want a yield of at least 2.25%). This may not sound high, but this is the growth portion of my assets, I still have an allocation to fixed income for more income. Currently the S&P is 1.34% and I’m at 2.24%.
I also believe in diversifying by sector.
Here is a copy of my current portfolio:
Info Technology (XLK) 19.25%
Apple AAPL 3.00%
Broadcom AVGO 4.00%
Cisco Systems CSCO 3.00%
Microsoft MSFT 4.00%
NVIDIA NVDA 2.00%
Qualcomm QCOM 3.25%
Financials (XLF) 13.50%
Apollo Global 6.75% Mandy 7/31/26 APOAP 3.75%
Goldman Sachs GS 3.25%
CME Group CME 3.25%
Janus Henderson Group JHG 3.25%
REITs (XLRE) 2.75%
Prologis Inc PLD 2.75%
Health Care (XLV) 11.00%
AbbVie ABBV 3.75%
Amgen AMGN 3.50%
Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO. 3.75%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 7.75%
Amazon AMZN 4.25%
Tractor Supply Co TSCO 3.50%
Industrials (XLI) 11.00%
Eaton Corp ETN 4.00%
BWX Technologies BWXT 3.75%
Waste Management WM 3.25%
Energy (XLE) 6.75%
Coterra Energy CTRA 3.25%
Hess Corp – CVX 1.025 shs HES. 3.50%
Consumer Staples (XLP) 7.50%
Costco COST 4.00%
PepsiCo PEP 3.50%
Communication Services (XLC) 4.00%
Alphabet Inc GOOGL 4.00%
Materials (XLB) 0.00%
0.00%
Utilities (XLU) 2.50%
NextEra Energy 6.926% man cvt 9/1/25 NEE/PR 2.50%
Equity Holdings 86.00%
Cash Equivalents 14.00%
BLF BlackRock Fed Fund. 2.25%
JPMorgan Ultra-Short Inc ETF JPST 8.25%
Cash 3.50%
Total 25 100.00%
Chris, don’t mind my asking, are you holding the ETF’s or the stocks listed or both? I get the impression you hold the individual stocks and listed the ETF’s
as holding similar stocks. I like you listed the ETF’s for those who might not want to deal with 25 different stocks
Thanks for the responses about AI a couple days ago. I wrote that, logged off for the day and had planned on checking it the next day. Turns out my car got totaled while I was in a doctors appointment and that took up most of my day!
I’d rather it not happen at all, but if it’s while I was parked and not in the car, I guess that’s a good second choice.
Nvidia seems like the logical choice, but up 200% in the last year doesn’t seem like a good time to buy. Same with GOOGL. I just don’t do well purchasing in bull markets.
LMT and RTX are another thought of mine. Being in this industry, they seem be on the forefront of defense contracts that look to be utilizing AI in their newer acquisitions and awards. I don’t know that it will be a quick transition, but I can see LMT having a ton of AI assisted defense technology in the near future.
Anyway, just wanted to say thanks and I wasn’t intentionally ignoring everyone’s responses
lukkyseven, all thoughts appreciated on common stock ideas and the trends. I tend to stay away from the flavor of the moment and missed a few opportunities in the past. I just tend to stay away from growth stocks now at my age unless they pay some kind of dividend. I did jump into ADM as I think the dividend is pretty good for a common stock and safe as its covered by earnings and not a large payout of FCF although I didn’t like reading earnings have been declining. Great news they bumped up the dividend yesterday. Hopefully after all the noise is over we get a better idea of how they intend to grow those earnings.
I jumped in on the ADM as well. Only a 1/3 position, but I’m going to watch it for a little bit.
Saratoga (SAR) announced that their BOD has authorized the company to buy back 1.7M shares of common stock below NAV. No obligations. May be extended, modified, discontinued, etc.
Per usual I’m late to the AI party. I’m not a forward thinker and I tend to recognize trends a little too late. How are you guys making money off of AI? I guess I’m technically in the game by owning some GOOGL, but that’s the extent for me. Just looking for ideas that I can track down.
My suggestion would be to avoid any AI pure plays which could fizzle, and focus on the big names that have multiple revenue streams. Microsoft would be a good place to ride the AI trend, or a company that stands to benefit from the technology like Abbott Laboratories or Tesla. Or just size up your position in Google which is one of the AI front runners.
AI:
I bought some NVDA late 2022/early 2023 (wish I had bought more, but…)
We have a tiny company in China that creates little education videos using AI and sells them (we feed in some data, AI writes script, we validate script, AI “performs” it into video, which we take to market via various channels). It is making money (not a barn burner, but profitable). Hoping to sell the platform and/or make custom videos for clients. In the mean time, our team there is gaining a lot of AI experience.
Nice thing for us is that we are not seeing a lot of attrition among our China staff, so the skills will hopefully “stick. I think folds stay because
(a) they work for an “American” company (technically not true, but close enough for them),
(b) most of them have been with us for a while and have seen how we shift people from project to project and even second people from company to company (instead of firing and hiring new) so they have job stability, which is a rarity in China startups, and
(c) we pay them bonuses based on company results – and we let them see the books, so they feel like they are being fairly compensated.
On point (b) – its amazing how much treating “staff” like people helps build loyalty. The COO of our “top level” company started as my secretary/translator when I was first living in China. Really nice gal – newly graduated with a degree in English. I just dumped everything on her (sink or swim) – from setting up gov. meetings (scary for someone so young) to taking visitors around the city and attending gov. negotiations with me (even scarier for a kid). She really blossomed.
Couple of years later she said she really wanted to get into the business side, but felt she needed more finance training. I told her that if she wanted to go study, I would write her a recommendation for any school she wanted and I would guarantee to rehire her after graduation.
She was planning to go to a middling university, but I pushed her to apply to top schools, and got a few of my government friends (who had worked with her while working with me) to write recommendations too. She ended up going to Tsinghua University, and we rehired her. A couple of years later, she wanted to do a one year program in the US (to get a western view of finance), which we paid for and again rehired her when she was finished.
I know she has been headhunted more than a few times and I tell her she should do what is best for her and her family (she has kids now) – but she stays with us.
I gotta tell you, she is the best evangelist to employees/recruits we could ever hope for. We have key candidate we want to hire interview with her.
Sorry for the long post – I was on the phone with her this morning and I can’t believe how lucky we are to have her around.
I’m holding steady with IBM.
AI will require a lot of professional services for implementation and IBM will provide them
In my trading account, just doing strangles on NVDA. Premiums are so high, you can get way-far out of the money. This week was a 560/670 sell put/sell call strangle for $180 per contract – covered it at $18. Been doing this for MONTHS and collecting about $500/week on a small trading account. Was only put the stock once but then sold deep IMT calls the next week on it and made even more. I play the AI (and any hype for that matter – including the MEME stuff a few years back) conservatively on the fringes and collect the hype’s premiums…I only play money I can afford to lose – my trading account is about 2.5% of my total portfolio.
I hold all this ‘technology stuff’ through the closed end fund BlackRock Science and Technology (BST). I feel it provides broad based exposure with a good yield. Although much of the 8% yield is certainly roc, I feel at my advanced age if I don’t take it now, then when?
LS. If u own google you are in AI. Hard for me to recommend stocks as we are in bull market. That being said I was buying Apple when folks were screaming it was overpriced. NVIDIA is likely the least pricey per earnings forecast. I continue to add as I have since 2016 or so. I think dollar averaging is best way to build wealth.
My quick thoughts on Ai. If super revolutionary. First companies to adopt would be small caps and thus receive the disproportionate benefit.
5year S&P600 index (IJR) has been flat. How could this BE?
Second thoughts Ai will be beneficial for specific applications which explains 7 companies dominating over the last 12 months who deal exclusively with data science activities.
Seen this one before in 1999 it did not end well for all participants once the market understood the true value proposition.
As the saying goes, you are entitled to your opinion but not your facts. Dot bubble had companies IPO with no profits trading at crazy valuations. I think the average was 100 times. Why would small caps be the first to benefit? No company can integrate without the NVIDIAs of the world and providers such as MFST. Are they overvalued today? IDK. BUT I DO KNOW THESE COMPANIES HAVE GREAT EARNINGS AND BALANCE SHEETS.
MMM down 11%+, yield now 6.27% for this 65 yr div raise streak company.
PP, I have friend that works at MMM. She is highly educated and experienced. Her comments to me is that MMM has lost its way. Decade ago it was a place for innovation. After 20 years, she is considering leaving.
I have been adding to CIBR; it hit a 52 week high today. I also add small amounts to NVIDIA. I have such a large gain that if it drops, I will continue to hold.
Lastly, adding to energy. Difficult to do as prices are not encouraging. Regardless I will add.
This morning I am of the mind to sell my Disney. I own a chunk of it and still at a gain. I may pay cap gain tax and get out of it. I have no confidence in leadership. Corporate responses are similar: in time of trouble call in the tall, white guy that we all know. Seldom does that work. Reading the NETFLIX share price has me on a rant over Disney.
What a nice investment CIBR is, started a small purchase pre-pandemic and it quickly got away from me as I tried to add more. Bad move as it turned out, even so, pretty happy original shares have doubled.
I sold a lot of 3M products over 12 yrs ago. They lost their innovation even longer than a decade ago. The writing was on the wall about water based adhesives and finishes. The Europeans BonaKemi in finishes and Sia adhevsives came in the market and kicked their bass.
Possible accounting irregularities at ADM, down 21% midday. Do not have this one but looking to consider it now.
Thanks Pig Pile… picked up 200 shares and if it hits 45, I’ll take a full position.
RILY – It looks like it’ll be a rough morning for RILY shares on Monday. I sure hope innocent bystander investors like me who bot FRGAP to simply capture YTC can’t possibly be sucked into this in any way because the call was contingent upon the going private deal closing…..
https://archive.ph/IAR28
SEC Probes B. Riley Deals With Client Tied to Failed Hedge Fund
Firm says it hasn’t received anything from SEC on the matter
Nomura arranged partial financing for client’s FRG buyout
By Donal Griffin and David Voreacos
January 22, 2024 at 1:22 AM UTC
US authorities are investigating B. Riley Financial Inc.’s deals with a key client who was linked to a securities fraud, and the use of his assets to help the investment bank obtain a loan from Nomura Holdings Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
The US Securities & Exchange Commission carried out interviews in recent months about B. Riley and its relationship with Brian Kahn, the people said, requesting anonymity as details aren’t public. Kahn is an unidentified co-conspirator in a US Department of Justice criminal case prompted by the 2020 demise of the Prophecy Asset Management hedge fund, Bloomberg News previously reported.
Officials have been scrutinizing how Kahn led a buyout of a retail business called Franchise Group Inc. in a deal arranged last year by B. Riley. Nomura partly financed the transaction, with some of Kahn’s assets pledged as collateral, according to the people and documents reviewed by Bloomberg.
Concern about B. Riley’s relationship with Kahn has helped send the Los Angeles-based firm’s shares tumbling, along with losses and writedowns on some of its investments, and the stock has attracted large bets by so-called short-sellers wagering on further declines. The brewing controversy also touches on Nomura, one of B. Riley’s biggest lenders, which has been seeking to repair its own reputation for risk management after losing almost $3 billion in 2021 amid the collapse of Archegos Capital Management.
A spokesperson for the SEC declined to comment. The probe is in its early stages. Scrutiny by the agency doesn’t necessarily mean anyone has engaged in any wrongdoing or that legal action will result, and Nomura isn’t the focus of the probe.
“We have not received anything from the SEC on this matter and to the extent the SEC makes an inquiry, we would fully cooperate as we have done in the past on all regulatory inquiries,” a spokesperson for B. Riley said in an emailed statement.
Short Sellers
“We would welcome an investigation into the outrageous tactics the short sellers have pursued to destroy B. Riley, including the coordinated options trading with zero disclosure obligations,” the statement said. “The short sellers continue to harass, intimidate, and insult employees and everyone associated with B. Riley, resorting to lies and crude remarks so they can personally profit.”
A Nomura representative said the bank declined to comment.
B. Riley told shareholders on Nov. 9 in its quarterly filing with the SEC that the firm has enough cash and other sources of liquidity to meet its needs. Kahn and his attorney didn’t respond to messages.
“At no time during my former business relationship with Prophecy did I know that Prophecy or its principals were allegedly defrauding their investors, nor did I conspire in any fraud,” Kahn said in a November statement. “Like many other investors, my relationship with Prophecy was costly, including economically, and I ceased doing business with Prophecy several years ago. In no way, shape or form has this previous relationship impacted Franchise Group.”
Investigators from the SEC’s Los Angeles office have also sought information about bebe stores inc., a women’s clothing chain that B. Riley controls and that also had dealings with Kahn, one of the people said.
Representatives for bebe stores didn’t respond to a request for comment.
B. Riley, founded by Chief Executive Officer Bryant Riley, traces its roots to 1997 as a boutique stock-picking firm focused on smaller companies. It now offers a birth-to-death business model for smaller publicly traded clients, including stock and bond offerings.
Franchise Group
Kahn is a longstanding client of B. Riley’s who has been involved with multiple businesses. Last August, the bank helped him lead a management buyout of Franchise Group, or FRG, a retail company based in Delaware, Ohio.
Nomura led a $600 million lending syndicate for B. Riley to help finance Kahn’s takeover, putting in place the three-way relationship that now exists among the parties, according to loan documents reviewed by Bloomberg News. The Japanese bank committed $240 million, more than any other lender, one of the people said.
B. Riley put up about $1.5 billion of various assets as collateral for the loan, the documents show. Some $220 million included shares of FRG, while $200 million is a loan B. Riley made to Kahn that is itself secured by more FRG stock, according to the documents.
Prophecy Management
Several months after the FRG deal closed, a Kahn associate named John Hughes pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud investors out of $294 million through Prophecy Asset Management, a now-defunct investment fund.
One of Hughes’s co-conspirators was “the CEO and president of a multibillion-dollar company that owned and managed large and diversified retail franchises,” according to the charging document prosecutors filed in New Jersey federal court. That conspirator was Kahn, according to a person familiar with the matter, Bloomberg previously reported.
The SEC also sued Hughes in a complaint that details massive trading losses by Individual 2. The agency’s depiction of Individual 2’s alleged actions matches the description of Kahn in the Hughes criminal case.
Read More: Prophecy Fund Co-Founder Pleads Guilty to $294 Million Fraud
It also aligns with a 2020 civil lawsuit filed in New York by a group of Prophecy investors who named Kahn and others as defendants. They alleged Kahn helped to swindle them out of tens of millions of dollars and used more than $100 million to amass a controlling stake for himself in FRG. Kahn has not been charged and denies any wrongdoing.
The case, filed in federal court in New York, was referred to arbitration and dismissed in 2022. It’s not clear from court records whether there was a settlement or whether Kahn paid any money.
The allegations against Kahn rippled through B. Riley’s relationship with Nomura and FRG’s credit rating. Loan documents show that at Nomura, a team of external advisers encouraged the Tokyo-based bank to write down the value of the loan to B. Riley, citing the allegations against Kahn and warning that the collateral for the debt may be tainted by fraud.
Nomura decided not to take action, citing the overall strength of the loan, according to the documents and one of the people.
However, S&P Global Ratings downgraded FRG’s credit rating,
which was already deep in junk territory, to B minus on Nov. 10, warning that its high leverage and “weak operating performance” could make its heavy debt burden unsustainable. S&P described the allegations against Kahn as an “unresolved” situation that could distract the company.
PLUG – Anyone want to weigh in: PLUG has entered into an At Market Issuance Sales Agreement with RILY for the issuance of up to $1 billion of new common shares. In the agreement – https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1093691/000110465924004465/tm243485-2_424b5.htm#sPOD, there is the following language in the Plan of Distribution section on p S-12: “Notwithstanding the foregoing, the aggregate amount of shares of common stock that we will direct B. Riley to sell as principal in principal transactions (inclusive of any shares sold by B. Riley in agency transactions) in any calendar week shall not exceed $30,000,000.” HOW WOULD YOU INTERPRET THIS LANGUAGE? Does it mean that no matter whether shares are marketed by RILY acting as agent OR as principal that the total maximum limit for amount of shares to be issued in any one week is limited to a maximum of $30 million worth?
That’s what I think it means but am having a “discussion” on that other site as to whether or not this limitation means the $1bil ATM marketing agreement cannot be completed any faster than 33.33 weeks time ($1 bil divided by $30 mil = 33.33 weeks or in other words approximately no earlier than the first week in September) under any circumstances.
The full content of the relevant paragraph reads:
“From and after the date hereof, we [PLUG] will have the right, but not the obligation, from time to time at our sole discretion over the 18-month period beginning on the date hereof, to direct B. Riley Securities on any trading day to act on a principal basis and purchase up to $10,000,000 of shares of our common stock as set forth in the sales agreement, by timely delivering a written notice to B. Riley Securities in accordance with the sales agreement; provided, however, only one principal sale may be requested per day, and in no event on consecutive calendar days, unless otherwise agreed to by B. Riley Securities. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the aggregate amount of shares of common stock that we will direct B. Riley to sell as principal in principal transactions (inclusive of any shares sold by B. Riley in agency transactions) in any calendar week shall not exceed $30,000,000.”
I’m awaiting feedback from PLUG Investor Relations but have yet to hear back. It seems pretty clear to me to be a strict weekly limit but the other side argues that this program will be completed by March 31, the end of the 1st quarter… I just don’t think that’s possible based on this language let alone whether or not Mr Market ability to absorb $1 bil worth of new PLUG common shares in that rapid a period. If I’m wrong it wouldn’t be the first time but what would you think is correct?
PLUG is a struggling green energy company trying to avoid chapter 11. It pays zero dividends, has no preferred shares or publicly traded notes and ~15% of the common shares are sold short. I don’t see why income investors here would be interested in PLUG, but on Tuesday the company is giving a webcast presentation.
Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG), a global leader in comprehensive hydrogen solutions for the green hydrogen economy, today announced the access details for its January 23, 2024 business update conference call. During the conference call, Andy Marsh, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, and Paul Middleton, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, will provide a business update and answer questions.
Join the call:
Date: Tuesday January 23, 2024
Time: 8:30 am ET
Toll-free:877-407-9221 / +1 201-689-8597
Thanks CW – I had missed that notification….. I’ll listen in….. I hope I was in no way implying there was an opportunity here for III’ers with PLUG… This actually came up in a RILY article and the author was trying to point out how they going to rake in millions in fees to the tune of $30 -50 mil quickly from this PLUG ATM and I just don’t see it…… This is all academic anyway as I don’t own RILY or any of its notes or preferreds anymore, not since 2022, and wouldn’t be comfortable owning any of them now either, even if they appear to be set up for a potentially massive short squeeze. I just think the author is misinformed on the short term potential impact on RILY from this deal, not only because of this issuing limitation but on the ability of the market to absorb so many new shares. Even the short term impact for RILY is only a minor cog in what they need to happen for them, so again, this is an academic exercise.
I read with interest the discussion about KRP last week, then went and looked at the November 10-Q:
– oil/gas rev down 16%
– op income down 16%
– LTD up 33%
– op cash down 11%
None of that looks great to me. What am I missing?
Bur, last dividend was .51 using 15% less I am estimating next one will be around .43 +/- Still not a bad yield
DFS – Discover Financial – “It’s a sign that higher interest rates are impacting consumers and households.”
https://archive.ph/JjIao#selection-93.0-321.33 [Barrons]
Discover Stock Tumbles After Earnings. Bad Debt Is a Problem.
By
Callum Keown
Jan. 18, 2024 5:26 am ET
Discover Financial set aside more money to cover bad loans.
Discover Financial Services stock tumbled 10% in premarket trading Thursday after the company missed earnings estimates and set aside more money to cover bad loans.
Discover said its provision for credit losses was $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $1 billion from the previous year. The increase included a $305 million higher reserve build and a $717 million increase in net-charge offs—debt that a lender deems unlikely to be repaid.
The lender’s net-charge off rate rose to 4.11% from 2.13% in the same period last year.
It’s a sign that higher interest rates are impacting consumers and households.
“A combination of factors more than offset the revenue upside, including a higher provision for loan losses, marketing expenses, other expenses and employee costs,” Seaport Research analyst Bill Ryan said in a research note. He has a Buy rating on the stock and target price of $128 but said his estimates were under review.
Discover reported earnings of $1.54 a share on revenue of $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Analysts were expecting profit of $2.49 a share on revenue of $4.1 billion, according to a FactSet survey of estimates.
The company is exploring the sale of its student-loan business, and said in November that it will stop accepting new loan applications from Feb.1.
The stock, which is 6.7% up over the past year through Wednesday’s close, was down 10.1% ahead of the open of trading Thursday. Fellow credit-card companies traded mixed. Visa declined 0.4%, while Mastercard was up 0.5%.
2wr–I saw this and thought the same thing–consumers are slowly getting squeezed.