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Any thoughts on HOVNP?
Bloomberg article says shortage of homes for sale because owners have 2-3-4% mortgages so changing to another house at 7% is unworkable. Homebuilders able to charge huge prices to those who have to buy.
The parent stock is up 100% YTD.
HOVNP down 17%
11.8% yield
??
Westie, HOVNP is non-cumulative and did not pay a dividend from 9/28/07-12/29/21 (over 14 YEARS) rated by Moody’s Caa3 and S&P rated C. Would only be speculating just how long they will continue to pay the quarterly dividend if/when they begin to struggle… 🤕
Westie18, This is a yield chase with an outsized probability of ending with a box of kleenex as a parting gift.
See Azure’s note. He’s laying it out for you in generously wonderful detail. At a minimum, if you’re not familar with the meaning behind Moody’s or S&P ratings, strongly suggest you dive in now as the knowledge and understanding will ultimately save you a lot of misery. And I mean this as a III friend: You shouldn’t even be asking about this issue.
So you know, S&P “C” has a rating description of “Default Imminent”. It’s the 11th tier into junk status. The issue may recover some day – we just don’t know and should not make predictions. But mathematically over time, your cash would be more valuable as kindling.
You may find these helpfuL:
StandardandPoors.com
https://www.moodys.com
fitchratings.com
Best to you Westie.
Thank you alpha and Azureblue
Invaluable advice
I do know what Ca and C mean
It is curious that the Institutional funds below are such major holders of the common stock
Major HoldersCurrency in USD
Breakdown
10.06% % of Shares Held by All Insider
52.22% % of Shares Held by Institutions
58.06% % of Float Held by Institutions
122 Number of Institutions Holding Shares
Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value
Blackrock Inc. 301,778 Mar 30, 2023 5.72% 27,341,086
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) 246,803 Mar 30, 2023 4.68% 22,360,351
Renaissance Technologies, LLC 200,715 Mar 30, 2023 3.80% 18,184,778
Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. 143,974 Mar 30, 2023 2.73% 13,044,044
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 142,642 Mar 30, 2023 2.70% 12,923,364
GW&K Investment Management, LLC 129,051 Mar 30, 2023 2.45% 11,692,020
State Street Corporation 93,389 Mar 30, 2023 1.77% 8,461,043
Geode Capital Management, LLC 90,062 Mar 30, 2023 1.71% 8,159,617
Morgan Stanley 71,856 Mar 30, 2023 1.36% 6,510,153
AWH Capital, L.P. 68,500 Mar 30, 2023 1.30% 6,206,099
Top Mutual Fund Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 179,684 Dec 30, 2022 3.41% 16,279,370
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 117,071 Feb 27, 2023 2.22% 10,606,632
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund 64,069 Dec 30, 2022 1.21% 5,804,651
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 47,726 Mar 30, 2023 0.90% 4,323,975
Fidelity Small Cap Index Fund 43,158 Jan 30, 2023 0.82% 3,910,114
iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF 39,764 Feb 27, 2023 0.75% 3,602,618
Invesco ETF Tr-Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid ETF 35,321 Mar 30, 2023 0.67% 3,200,082
Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund 26,006 Feb 27, 2023 0.49% 2,356,143
DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Series 16,757 Jan 30, 2023 0.32% 1,518,184
DFA U.S. Targeted Value Portfolio 14,034 Jan 30, 2023 0.27% 1,271,480
I do agree with your advice
I’m out when I can
Federal Farm Credit Banks
Full call on 06/08/23 –
CUSIP 3133EPCQ6 6.64% of 03/08/23
CUSIP 3133EPCP8 6.54% of 03/08/23
New issue –
CUSIP 3133EPMD4 6.33% dated 06/07/23, callable 09/07/23
Thanks
Guess I am going to have to snag some of the new Federal Farm Credit issue to replace one of the issues being called
Gladstone Land is listing their 6% C series “on or about June 8, 2023” as LANDP:
https://www.gladstonefarms.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/315/gladstone-land-corporation-announces-nasdaq-listing-of
If I’m reading the prospectus supplement correctly (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1495240/000119312520098120/d898121d424b5.htm), the call date for LANDP becomes 01 jun 2024.
Not an issue for me–I’m happy to continue collecting 6% in the meantime–but I’d be interested to hear from anyone experienced with LAND’s previous offerings
Jun. 01, 2023 6:44 AM ETScorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG), SBBA
MONACO, June 01, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG) (the “Company”) announced today that it has recently purchased 851,978 of its common shares in the open market at an average price of $46.74 per share as part of the Company’s securities repurchase program. The Company currently has 55,331,704 common shares outstanding.
On May 31, 2023, the Company’s Board of Directors replenished the 2023 Securities Repurchase Program to purchase up to an aggregate of $250 million of the Company’s securities which, in addition to its common shares also consist of its Senior Unsecured Notes Due 2025 (NYSE: SBBA). This program resets the program that was previously replenished on May 1, 2023. There is $250 million available under the 2023 Securities Repurchase Program as of June 1, 2023.
I like hearing about the repurchase – speaks to the strength of free cash flow and ultimately safety. If they do buy back SBBA before 6/30/24, they need to do so at a premium of $25.25.
Not sure I would state that this is a strength that will last for years. At any given year, they might have 70 million or 400 million in cash from ops. Last year was a good year, but this does not necessarily translate into a multi year of boom where they are pulling down hundreds of millions of dollars in cash. They are being prudent, but I would not say this is a back up the truck investment.
Valid point, especially from an equity perspective. Considering though that SBBA is a relatively short term issue (maturity 6/2025), actions like this help to de-risk the remaining two years – to a degree.
How does that work? Can’t they buy it back on the open market and not pay the premium to $25.25?
Good point GF – my assumption was a partial call. However; they can buy on the open market to avoid.
I have always been curious – is their is any regulation that prevents a company from halting dividend payments on their preferred stock, letting the stock price drop like a rock, and then purchase back the stock at rock bottom prices?
Talk, most prospectus that I am aware of typically have dividend restrictions on commons and restrictions on preferred stock open market purchases while dividend is suspended. But you have to check the prospectus. Additionally though, most would still be allowed to tender an offer though that can be accepted or rejected by preferred holder.
$talk, What Grid said, though if you replace the part “halting dividend payments” with “push to the pfd to the expert market”, then you’ve got a fairly good summary above of how rule 15c2-11 “encourages” rather than “prevents” your scenario.
What Grid said is right on – also:
– Most companies know that they will want to go back to the market at some point, so if they screw current investors, future investors will be less likely to buy their securities. That usually acts as a damper on stupidity.
-when management knows they won’t be going back to the market, they can do what you said. IIRC, this is what happened not that long ago at a company discussed on this board (I think it was Maiden Holdings?).
Somebody correct me please if I have the wrong company.
GNL/RTL acquisition – This is weird. Right in the middle of this acquisition Moody’s withdraws its ratings on GNL –
Moody’s withdraws Global Net Lease’s ratings due to insufficient information
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-withdraws-Global-Net-Leases-ratings-due-to-insufficient-information-Rating-Action–PR_477203?cid=GAR9PTU7VKT2671&emailToken=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJVc2VySWQiOiIwNTkzODg3Yi1iM2NhLTRmNTgtYmY3Ny0xZDRjZmI3M2VlY2QiLCJEb2NJZCI6IlBSXzQ3NzIwMyIsImNyZWF0aW9uRGF0ZSI6IjIwMjMtMDUtMzFUMDg6MzQ6MzIuNjc4ODQzOS0wNDowMCIsImV4cCI6MTY4NjE0MTI3MiwiVXNlck5hbWUiOiIyd2hpdGVyb3NlcyIsIlVzZXJUeXBlIjoiMiJ9.DgwN-W58hxzEn_7j7xur_wECjqd03PN9ZYpMnrGb33Y
Ellington Financial to acquire Arlington Investment. Wonder what happens to my AIC note.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3975730-ellington-financial-to-acquire-arlington-investment-to-boost-scale-liquidity
ATHENS, Greece, May 30, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (“TEN” or the “Company”) (NYSE: TNP), a leading diversified crude, product and LNG tanker operator, today announced that it has called for redemption all 3,517,061 of its outstanding 8.75% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares (NYSE: TNP-PD) (CUSIP: G9108L140) (the “Series D Preferred Shares”).
The redemption of the Series D Preferred Shares will occur on July 7, 2023 (the “Redemption Date”). The Series D Preferred Shares will be redeemed for $25.00 per share, plus all accrued and unpaid dividends to, but not including, the Redemption Date in an amount equal to $0.243056 per share, for a total payment of $25.243056 per share, which will be payable in cash on the Redemption Date.
After the Redemption Date, Series D Preferred Shares will no longer be deemed outstanding and all the rights of the holders of Series D Preferred Stock will terminate, except the right to receive the redemption price. In addition, because all the issued and outstanding shares of Series D Preferred Shares are being redeemed, the Series D Preferred Shares will no longer trade on the New York Stock Exchange after the Redemption Date. The Series D Preferred Shares currently trade on the NYSE under the symbol TNP-PD.
So the question for AAIC preferreds and probably notes is will this event constitute a “Change Of Control?” Just looking at prospectus for AAIC-C, here’s the definition of Change of Control:
”
A “Change of Control” is deemed to occur when, after the original issuance of the Series C Preferred Stock, the following have occurred and are continuing:
the acquisition by any person, including any syndicate or group deemed to be a “person” under Section 13(d)(3) of the Exchange Act, of beneficial ownership, directly or indirectly, through a purchase, merger or other acquisition transaction or series of purchases, mergers or other acquisition transactions of our stock entitling that person to exercise more than 50% of the total voting power of all our stock entitled to vote generally in the election of our directors (except that such person will be deemed to have beneficial ownership of all securities that such person has the right to acquire, whether such right is currently exercisable or is exercisable only upon the occurrence of a subsequent condition);
AND
following the closing of any transaction referred to in the bullet point above, neither we nor the acquiring or surviving entity has a class of common securities (or American Depositary Receipts representing such securities) listed on the NYSE, the NYSE American LLC or the Nasdaq Stock Market, or listed or quoted on an exchange or quotation system that is a successor to the NYSE, the NYSE American LLC or the Nasdaq Stock Market.”
With EFC continuing to trade after this acquisition, does this meet the criteria for provisions that will be tripped off by the acquisition?
I don’t think the CoC applies to the EFC-AAIC transaction as they described it. I checked the docs on each of the prefs and AIC notes. And there’s this too from the PR:
“Ellington Financial will assume Arlington’s outstanding preferred equity, senior unsecured notes and trust preferred securities. ”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230530005243/en/Ellington-Financial-and-Arlington-Asset-Investment-Corp.-Announce-Definitive-Merger-Agreement
According to this filing, parts of which I excerpt, business as usual?
Price of AIC is up pre-market, but EFC looks to be substantially financially weaker than AAIC. Maybe the share holders will vote no?
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1209028/000114420415015987/v404372-424b5.htm#tCLM1
Merger or Consolidation
Under the terms of the indenture, we are generally permitted to consolidate or merge with another entity. We are also permitted to sell all or substantially all of our assets to another entity. However, we may not take any of these actions unless all the following conditions are met:
– where we merge out of existence or sell all or substantially all of our assets, the resulting entity must agree to be legally responsible for our obligations under the Notes and the indenture.
– etc ….(omitting for brevity)
Consolidation, Merger and Sale of Assets
Each indenture generally permits a consolidation or merger between us and another corporation and the conveyance, transfer or lease by us of all or substantially all of our property or assets, in each case without the consent of the holders of any outstanding debt securities. However, unless we indicate otherwise in the applicable prospectus supplement, each indenture requires that:
– the successor or purchaser is a corporation organized under the laws of the United States of America, any state thereof or the District of Columbia and expressly assumes our obligations on the debt securities under the applicable indenture;
– immediately after giving effect to the transaction, no event which, after notice or lapse of time, would become an event of default, will have occurred and be continuing pursuant to the applicable indenture; and
– either we or the successor person has delivered to the applicable indenture trustee an officer’s certificate and an opinion of counsel stating the consolidation, merger, transfer or lease, as applicable, complied with these provisions and all conditions precedent of the applicable indenture.
The successor shall be substituted for us as if it had been an original party to the indentures and the debt securities. Thereafter, the successor may exercise our rights and powers under the indentures and the debt securities and, except in the case of a lease, we will be released from all of our obligations and covenants under those documents.
From the press release:
https://www.arlingtonasset.com/2023-05-30-ELLINGTON-FINANCIAL-AND-ARLINGTON-ASSET-INVESTMENT-CORP-ANNOUNCE-DEFINITIVE-MERGER-AGREEMENT
Anticipated Benefits to Ellington Financial and Arlington Stockholders from the Acquisition:
– blah, blah, blah
– Desirable Target Capital Structure: Arlington’s capital structure includes unsecured debt and preferred equity with attractive costs of capital.=
– blah, blah
The “attractive costs of capital” implies they won’t be calling AIC anytime soon?
> Wonder what happens to my AIC note.
I looked at the prospectus this morning. There’s no change of control provision, if that’s what you were curious about.
I haven’t looked at the prospectus for that note issuance (I also hold some of the notes) but highly unlikely IMO a baby bond debt instrument would have any change of control protections.
If that assumption is wrong, somebody feel free to correct me.
CME Futures for Jun 14 Fed Funds rate
5-19 83% 5-5.25%
17% 5.25-5.5%
5-26 40% 5-5.25%
60% 5.25-5.5%
Mortgage REIT Ellington Financial (EFC) has agreed to acquire Arlington Asset Investment (AAIC), another mortgage REIT, in a deal that should increase scale and liquidity, the companies said Tuesday.
In addition, Arlington’s (AAIC) portfolio aligns well with Ellington Financial’s and its relatively low leverage should offer the opportunity to enhance returns by deploying additional capital in EFC’s targeted asset classes, they said.
“We believe that the benefits of this acquisition include greater operating efficiencies, a larger market capitalization, and attractive long-term unsecured debt and preferred equity capital,” said Ellington Financial (EFC) CEO Laurence Penn.
Under terms of the agreement, Ellington (EFC) will issue 0.3619 share of EFC for each share of Arlington (AAIC) common stock held, or ~11.7M EFC shares in total. Arlington stockholders will also get $3M in cash, or $0.09 per share, to be contributed by Ellington Financial’s external manager.
The closing stock prices for Ellington Financial and Arlington on May 26, 2023 imply an offer price of $4.77 per share, representing a 73% premium to Arlington’s share price on Friday, and a 15% discount to diluted tangible book value per share as of March 31, 2023.
Arlington Asset (AAIC) stock surged 50% Tuesday premarket trading and Ellington Financial (EFC) stock dipped 3.7%.
The acquisition is expected to add to Ellington Financial’s (EFC) earnings in 2023 and to its book value within a year of closing. They also expect to improve operating expense efficiency by spreading fixed expenses over a larger equity base.
Upon completion of the deal, expected in Q4 2023, Ellington Financial (EFC) is expected to have pro forma equity capital base of more than $1.5B. Based on the closing price of EFC’s common stock on May 26, the estimated pro forma market capitalization of the combined company would exceed $1.0B.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3975730-ellington-financial-to-acquire-arlington-investment-to-boost-scale-liquidity?mailingid=31632287&messageid=2900&serial=31632287.2371&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=31632287.2371
Somebody posted about the PREPA Insured bonds and the elections to be made. I don’t want the commutation treatment but among the two versions of Non Commutation ( escrow and trust) I am not sure about what to choose or whether it is a toss up. Any analysis or thoughts appreciated.
COWNL 7.75% debentures frozen in March 2023 at $25.22 today show zero value. Spoke to TD Private Client and stated no official word what COWNL and TD Bank the buyer of COWN will do but that redemption is scheduled June 15, 2023. In my many years of investing I have not seen a merger where a bond was reported as zero value. Any comments or information much appreciated. No warning at all from the company or brokerage before zeroing out value of COWNL. Very poor treatment of investors by TD Bank and COWN
Transfer over to your ROTH.
This is what I am trying to do. T Rowe has been making it difficult to set up a broker account in the ROTH. Going on 1-1/2 weeks and nothing shows yet twice sent DocuSign. First time it was sent while on the phone. Waited 4 days and called again was told the salesperson did it wrong. Then took 2 days before new Doc’s showed up in the email. That was 2 days ago and still waiting
FTM – Treatment by TD Bank and COWN has been fine. They are not to be blamed for brokers zeroing out. Problem is TD Bank/COWN took care of this so long ago, March 1 to be exact….. TD Private Client is just uninformed. Funds are in escrow to call L on first call date of June 15. Refer them to https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1466538/000095015723000197/form8-k.htm
2033 Notes
As previously reported, the Company entered into that certain Senior Notes Indenture, dated as of October 10, 2014 (the “Base Indenture”), as amended and supplemented by the Third Supplemental Indenture, dated as of June 11, 2018 (the “Third Supplemental Indenture” and, together with the Base Indenture, the “Indenture”), by and between the Company, as issuer, and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee, security registrar and paying agent (in each such capacity, the “Trustee”), relating to the Company’s 7.75% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”). On the Closing Date, in connection with the consummation of the Merger, the Company (i) satisfied and discharged the Indenture and (ii) issued and delivered a notice of redemption to the holders of the 2033 Notes to redeem all $100,000,000 in aggregate principal amount thereof at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount to be redeemed plus the accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date. On the Closing Date, the Company deposited with the Trustee the applicable payments to satisfy and discharge the Indenture and to eventually redeem the 2033 Notes. The 2033 Notes are expected to be redeemed on June 15, 2023.
2WR My wife tried on Thursday to do it with several people over the phone, finally one of the rep’s said he wasn’t that knowledgeable and suggested she call back with her husband. We got up early Friday and tried again and was transferred to a senior rep who I talked to and explained all I needed was a brokerage set up in the Roth and a sweep account. He understood and sent her a e-mail with a Docusign and told us he would rush the request since we had been having so much trouble and should be setup Tuesday after the holiday.
When we got off the phone, my wife said I knew more than some of the people she had talked to and I should get a job there.
I don’t really know that much, But I learned a lot from everyone here!
Thanks
Charles, I was lucky to see your post yesterday and get the COWNL in in my ira transferred to my roth within seconds. I took all kinds of screen shots showing the zero asset value, zero taxable distribution, etc. As expected the value of my roth stayed the same after the conversion. Keeping my fingers crossed this will hold.
35spline, I now have a Brokerage account in our Roth, and will be moving the COWNL over there tomorrow.
If you’ve set this up specifically to transfer COWNL at zero, then once they’re called, isn’t 100% of your return a profit? So doesn’t that mean you have no access for withdrawal of those funds for 5 years? I could be wrong as I’ve never opened a ROTH.
No, this ROTH was part of my Wife’s 401k that was transferred over from when she set up the IRA 9 months ago. she has had it for 4 or 5 years already. I have just been letting the funds set in a short term Treasury fund. Never set up a brokerage account in the ROTH as I have been too busy trying to get the IRA invested.
Be nice to find a few more like that Watford and this Cowen to move over there.
I am starting to doubt this is actually going to work. After the transfer to my roth the number of shares doesn’t show it just says invalid symbol. I am thinking TDA might still put the redemption funds back in my regular IRA instead of the roth after June 15th.
I’m sorry to be a broken record about this, but I really encourage people to think twice about these zero value Roth conversions, especially when you expect to be paid in the same tax year.
If the IRS asks you why you valued the conversion at $0, what are you going to say? I don’t think “the broker said it was worth $0” is going to cut it when a month later you were paid $25/share.
Of course if someone has a real tax accountant who has blessed the idea, I’d love to hear about it.
The IRS is not going to question the individual…if anything, they will question your brokerage. You will get a 1099-R if you do a Roth Conversion (transfer COWNL from an IRA to a ROTH IRA). Your brokerage will provide you that form and it will likely show a $0.00 conversion amount. You just report the values provided on the 1099-R into TurboTax and you are done. Don’t try to change numbers around or else you will open yourself up to an audit because your numbers are not matching what your brokerage sent to the IRS.
If the IRS examined the return, why wouldn’t they question a zero value conversion? It seems like an obvious red flag since it doesn’t serve any legitimate purpose.
A taxpayer who receives an incorrect 1099-R is required to ask the issuer to correct it, and if that fails, to file form 4852. That should not lead to an audit. However, I do think it’s better to avoid the whole situation by not doing zero value conversions.
I keep checking Fidelity and it still shows my COWNL @ 25.22/sh. Would be nice to covert to Roth @00.00.
Friday I insisted TD’s corp actions dept send me an explanation message in mobile app – close as I could get to a letter documenting this whole screwy sitch… debited brokerage account internally 5-25 after close… cash incoming 6-15-23 + div uncertain?
Been on this since March when COWNL IR told me they paid out all shareholders and I needed to get my money from TDAMERITRADE!!!
Was this squirrely because COWN was bought by TD? Messy
Mz G TD Ameritrade was / isn’t part of TD Bank ( Toronto Dominion ) the bank that bought Cowen. Surprised Cowen sold all their preferred bank holding stocks. Probably took a loss. I would of thought they would of only sold off portions.
An analyst over on SA who retired in 2013 as a credit manager for a regional bank said that you don’t see problems in banks until 1 to 2 years after a system wide shock, giving examples of 2001 and 2007-2008. the bank failures came later like 2010-2012
He’s recommending only short term holds for now (trading) until we get to 2024 and start to see the fallout of higher rates on banks.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4601386-beaten-down-bank-stock-list-analysis
Thank you Charles
Rvert, I posted about the National Insured Prepa bonds on 5/11.
IMPORTANT to note that Azure also holds some of these and came to a different conclusion as to the course of action. He chose Option 1, I chose option 2B, both based on the same set of facts. There is NO exact model for how this will work out because there are several variables. So today you cannot prove which choice will optimize your return. We have substantial holdings of many different CUSIPS, so do have a vested interest in how this works out.
Verbatim from 5/11/ post:
Puerto Rico Electric (PREPA) muni bond holders alert! I do not know if any other III’ers beyond Azure hold these bonds. If you hold National Insured PREPA’s, you have an important decision to be made before June 6th. There are three options and the default if do not take any action is the worst choice IMO. If anyone is interested, please speak up and I will post the secret decoder ring that translates your choices.
Offer 1) Take the ~ 70% cash the board agreed with National on and get a pile of uninsured new issues valued at the other 30%. Many of these if not all will be in strange sizes that do NOT conform to the $5k minimum/$5k increment standard. You might receive literally $353 of one Cusip, $547 of another Cusip, etc.
Offer 2a) Take National’s offer to be on the hook to reimburse you for 100% without a time guarantee like they did on the GO/HTA deal. On GO/HTA they paid out all principal immediately without regard to what the original maturity date was. They are not making that commitment at this time. Maybe they do pay them off immediately or let them run until the original maturity date or something in between. This option includes the chance of essentially a make whole payment if they are called early. This option was done entirely on the basis of an institutional investor lawsuit against the board/AGMC claiming that insurers did NOT have the right to do an immediate call @ par on the GO/HTA plan.
Offer 2b) Take National’s offer to be on the hook to reimburse you for 100% without a time guarantee like they did on the GO/HTA deal. This does NOT include the potential of a make whole type payout which is different than 2A.
Changing from facts to opinion: My assumption is that National MIGHT treat 2A and 2B differently. They might be more inclined to do an immediate call @ par on 2B as opposed to 2A. There is another wrinkle. The BK judge threatened this week to throw out the whole plan and start over. Understand that the PROMESA law essentially allowing PR to declare BK was signed in 2016, so this has been going on for 7 years. If the judge does through the proposed plan out, all of these choices might be null and void. It is unknowable. If the plan is NOT thrown out, it is unknowable exactly when the plan will be approved. It might be 2023, or stretch into 2024.
We have selected offer 2B for all of our holdings with the working assumption that National pays them off in full @ par, right after the plan is approved. Once again, National has NOT explicitly said what they will do, partly because they also have no idea of the timing.
Related to this, MBIA/National released their earnings yesterday 5/9. The board chair resigned/retired/whatever. And they said they are no longer pursuing strategic alternatives. Rumored that AGMC was going to buy them. My pure guess is that the PREPA cloud overhanging everybody is what killed the deal. Any buyer could not determine National’s liabilities until PREPA is complete and lord knows when that will be. No mortal does, that is for sure.
Thanks. I sort of came out with the same conclusion. The possibility that interest going forward is taxable was not a good development. I believe that in the case of HtA the trusts pay tax free interest.
With the current interest rates I rather redeploy elsewhere in muni land than hold to maturity. By the way are you assuming that all AGMC insured bonds are paid off? I don’t see any election other than for National unlike previous PR plans.
Rvert, the proposed PREPA “plan of adjustment” is bizarre and personally I do not see how it is legal. But what is not “legal” has not slowed down the PR bankruptcy judge Swain in the least. The PR oversight board cut a special deal with National that excluded all of the other insurers, primarily AGMC. The deal was NATL insured issues would get ~ 70% cash when the deal was approved, in exchange for not continuing to fight. Kind of like “if you raise the white flag of surrender” we will treat you well. AGMC in particular has been offered as little as 0.2% cash BECAUSE they keep fighting.
This is why you have a choice on NATL insured issues but NOT on AGMC ones. If/when the plan is approved, I am highly confident that AGMC will make all of their issues 100% money good. Most likely they will immediately call them and pay them off @ par, but they have not officially committed to that AFAIK.
We have substantial quantities of AGMC issues so have a vested interest in the outcome.
Tex, for clarification, I chose 2a. My good sized insured position PREPA municipal bonds in question mature 7/1/2023 and will will just have to see if my sophisticated trust based in Nevis is made whole. I’m sure most know here that PR is truly a beautiful place, but is corrupt to the core and I’m certain there will be more twists and turns.
Please remember Memorial Day and those hero’s that have given their lives for our freedom, Azure
Azure, thanks for the update. IIRC, your last post on PREPA’s indicated you were going to choose option 1. Did you change to option 2A or did I miss something?
2nd you comment about PR corruption and add an “incompetence” tag also!
Thanks, T2
Tex, thank you for your post. I reread everything and believe 2a was right for my portfolio.(s) This is EXACTLY why people should be buying insured municipal bonds; they have never missed an income payment or principle payoff in decades of my or my clients buying into this narrative.
Last night I was in Weston, Florida at a restaurant named Acquolina (highly recommended) sitting at the bar awaiting my table. The guy next to me is talking to the bartender about the world/Fed/US defaulting. I told him who I was and what I did and he said he was a former Fed Governor and that he believes they are very close to a deal to raise the debt ceiling. He also said he hoped there was a default “so we could get our fiscal house in order”. When I asked him about what he thought about how the Fed and our Congress managed to put us in this situation he asked “how much time do you have” and ordered another drink. Finally, after my friends and I ate the waiter told us the bill had been paid for by a guy at the bar. I wish I knew how to get in touch with him to at the very least say thank you ⭐️ Much more to say about what we spoke about, but I don’t really want to bore many here
Please bore us!
Bur, I was really surprised he talked extensively about oil (domestic and international production and use), green energy and then “dollar diplomacy” and how much he liked Stock ’84 VSOP an Italian Brandy 🥃. Very nice guy, was on his own and I definitely should have asked him to join my group of friends for dinner (in hindsight). He mentioned some quips about current politics (I will NOT discuss them here) and hope I can meet him again. I was going to look him up and reach out to him, but I don’t want him to think I am stalking him 🙃 so I’ll just be thankful for the time and conversation…
Please have a great holiday weekend and keep the fallen members of our military in your thoughts
Azure, thank you for remembering the fallen members of our military; this date is meaningful for me as I am a vet ( Combat Engineers O3 ).
My son is a Green Beret SSG ( Comms Sgt ) but was injured in Afghanistan and now on VA disability benefits. He is married with a child and lives in Wisconsin.
May we never forget their sacrifice and service.
Inspbudget, thank you for sharing my friend. You and your son are both heroes and we all owe our freedoms and safety to our incredible military. My father served 2 tours with the Navy, he has since passed and when I came across his honorable discharge papers all I could do was smile. My father always said the most difficult thing he ever did was leave the military, but he and my mother then wanted to raise a family in the US and he would be gone for many months at a time or be overseas.
May we never forget their sacrifice and service 🇺🇸
Woof!
Five year CD’s at 5.1% !!
For sure, call protected, but the rise in rates isn’t over (I think)
Good Morning Westie,
I, too, believe the rise in rates isn’t over, yet I’m a little tired of shuffling these short-term CDs. Which brokerage are you seeing 5yr, +5% CDs? I haven’t seen them pop up recently on schwab. Maybe bad timing on my part?
Thanks!
it is nice being on the other side of the steam roller.
After having been blindsided by all the regional bank preferred collapses, to see CORRPRA up 30% today after 15% yesterday, brings it almost back to where I started.
Expect to read something in the press soon.
Perhaps related to this????
CorEnergy to Sell MoGas and Omega Pipeline Systems to Spire
8:00 AM ET 5/25/23 | BusinessWire
All-Cash Transaction Expected to Repay Bank Debt in Full and Generate Additional Cash
KANSAS CITY, Mo.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–May 25, 2023–
CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, Inc. (NYSE: CORR, CORRPrA) (“CorEnergy” or the “Company”) today announced entry into a definitive agreement to sell its MoGas and Omega pipeline systems (“MoGas System”) to Spire Inc. (NYSE: SR) for approximately $175 million in cash, subject to final working capital adjustments. The MoGas System is an interstate natural gas transmission and distribution system providing service to markets in Missouri and Illinois.
Transaction Highlights
— All-cash transaction valued at approximately $175 million
— Expected to close in the third quarter 2023, subject only to anti-trust
clearance and customary closing conditions
— Estimated $165 million of net proceeds after taxes and
transaction-related costs
— Net proceeds will be used to repay all CorEnergy bank debt at closing,
approximately $100 million
Dave Schulte, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of CorEnergy, said: “The sale of our MoGas and Omega systems enables us to significantly de-leverage our balance sheet and strengthen our overall capital structure. This is one of several 2023 initiatives we are undertaking to improve our balance sheet and operating results, including proposed tariff increases and corporate cost reductions.”
“The team at MoGas and Omega has produced reliably profitable results and an excellent safety record as a part of CorEnergy, and we wish to thank them for their dedicated service over the past several years,” said Schulte. “Spire shares our commitment to providing safe, reliable, and environmentally sustainable service to the customers and communities that we serve, and we are pleased they will retain our field operating personnel.”
The Company plans to provide an updated 2023 outlook, including opportunities within its California energy transition and other business initiatives, after the transaction has closed.
Hi Florida Guy and Westie 18
The idea intrigues me, thanks. I saw this article, just released, thought you guys might be interested.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/will-corenergy-ever-pay-their-preferred-dividends–16124707?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO