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READER INITIATED ALERTS

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1,628 thoughts on “READER INITIATED ALERTS”

  1. If anyone looking to buy something at the buzzer here, the ask just dipped to par. [BTW I have been putting in limit orders all day a couple or few pennies above bid (well below ask) on numerous issues and I’m getting hit all the time]

    ATLAS CORP. 7.95% PFD
    ATCO/PRD

    BAC/PRB 6%er now asking a penny under par.

    1. good comment.. atco.prd/vclt pair has seen atco outperform for the last 3 years ..currently trading near fair value

    1. From Morningstar:
      “TPG Inc is an alternative asset management firm. It invests across five multi-product platforms namely Capital, Growth, Impact, Real Estate, Market Solutions, and TPG Angelo Gordon. The company focuses on large-scale, control-oriented private equity investments.”

  2. I bot RNR.PRG 4.2 perpetual at 15.88 6.6 CY .. the RNR-G/VCLT pair is near 3 year low was 3 sigma rich in march 2024 and now near 3 sigma cheap …several articles on S/A on RNR

  3. Big price drop for RILYG 3/31. Anyone how bought then is doing ok. Up over 8% today at $11.16. Still lower then the $13 it was a few days ago. I don’t own any.

  4. SCHW-D
    Charles Schwab Corp. 5.95% perpetuals now trading just under par.

    PRH – Prudential 5.95% BBs just under par.

    MS-I, Morgan Stanley 6.375% perpetuals trading under par.

    HIG-G Hartford 6% perpetuals now, you guessed it, under par.

    1. Love these and was scooping some of these up yesterday. Lots of MS issues are near par or below. I’ve been favoring issues with the lowest coupons but nearly the same yields in hopes they aren’t called later.

      MET.PRF is at 6% yield with 4.75% coupon

      WBS.PRG, WBS.PRF are at 7% and 6.5% yield approx now.

      1. Yield Hunter,

        I am setting up my wife’s retirement portfolio and I am using the same philosophy. Buying high quality, low coupon issues currently paying around 6% with the anticipation that they will never be called, and as such, my wife will not have to make many reinvestment decisions.

        The negative that I have noticed is that when interest rates rise, these issues have a disproportionate drop in value. Given that there is no plan to sale any of these issues, I assume that they will have a corresponding increase in value when interest rates drop.

        1. LarryL, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I also have bought a bunch of high quality perpetuals for my wife’s retirement account. The weak point I see is inflation risk: if inflation gets to 6%+ a year, then the account will be losing purchasing power. Curious to hear opinions on that risk and how to manage it.

          1. Maybe Tim will chime in but I think the way he handles it is with some proportion of large proportion of term preferreds that must be called. A portfolio could consistent of some of these high quality and then could have some with the fixed + SOFR component and then stagger some maturity dates.

            I’ve been playing volatility a little bit and when rates rise I buy these and then when rates drop I sell off my least favorite or lowest yield. Some economists are calling 2025 the year of vol.

            The term preferreds would require some degree of work for your wife but the combo fixed/floating could be a partial solution.

            1. Yield Hunter – since my target is just 6% (although I would love 7%) I can be conservative (as I define it) and buy almost all term preferreds, relatively short dated baby bonds and more recently purchasing some fixed to floating issues that I am confident will be call in the next short while. All these in theory have a floor under the share price ($24.50 or so) I don’t really do much trading to capture movements (i.e. dividend captures etc). At this time I balance all the term preferreds and baby bonds and preferred with a pretty large portion of money markets and CDs in the average area of 4.25% so to get my 6% I need about 7.75% or so off the term preferreds and baby bonds. I don’t personally worry about laddering anything at all. Now just recently I started to add a few high quality low coupon preferreds to the mix–some I think have a good shot at doing a 5-15% capital gain in the next year–we’ll see.

        2. LarryL,

          For diversification, you could consider adding in some “perpetual” floaters with 4% min. Only a handful to choose from, I like/own MS-A, USB-A, BML-L, and GS-C. Current yields meet your criteria, can’t go below 4%, and the shares won’t drop in value as much if rates go up.

        3. good comment low coupon preferreds have got slammed vs VCLT as we are nearing 3yr lows on the pair.. this is consistent with their positive convexity which exaggerates interest rate moves in either direction but has been disproportionate

        4. They are very much like bonds in that way so it’s all about our outlook. It definitely seems like Trump wants short term rates lower and if things stabilize that could happen and the value of these could rise.

          We are just looking for reasonable cash flow though, right? I like lots of free cash flow and if they pay a common dividend that can be cut before they cut the preferred. Lots of these are cumulative too. I didn’t have any but the PCE shares stopped paying after wildfires for a few years but they caught back up when they started paying again. Pretty great.

    2. Is MS-I floating? The Quantum Online site has a strike through on the floating info so not sure if it is and if so what the rate/formula is.

  5. Didn’t receive a call notice from Schwab for MBNKP, so it will float on April 1 at 3mL + 6.46%.

    Tim gave it a D for dividend safety, however the chart of parent MFIN looks pretty good of late.

    1. Excellent. I had been holding for this outcome.

      11% is a fair reward for the risk on this issue.

  6. Futures plummeting ahead of last day for Q1 trading.

    DJIA -870
    Nasdaq -617
    S&P -136
    FTSE -17
    CAC -85
    DAX -208
    EURO Stoxx -48
    NIKKEI -1,100
    HANG SENG -540
    VIX + 7.25%

    I’m so annoyed right now because thanks to the all the chatter on Gold here recently, I was so close to loading May futures contracts on Friday late afternoon but ultimately held back. I’m sure those contracts are going to be up significantly.

      1. Maine – Great catch thanks. My buddy texted me that info and with the time difference, he’s way ahead being overseas and I completely forgot that we aren’t past 5 yet. So those first 3 US quotes above are totally stale. Good chance they will be worse then, hopefully not.

        1. No problem.. it certainly feels dark and gloomy out there. I hate politics (both parties) so I try not to pay attention too much, but markets are certainly manic lately. Short term investing is almost always difficult to predict, but I feel that’s it’s even more difficult lately.

          It’s been a fantastic run w prefs / credit, so trying to stay higher quality and maintain some semblance of dry powder, although that’s proving difficult.

      1. It was an error due to time zone differences. I received stale data from overseas, also forgetting we weren’t past 5PM eastern here either. I can’t edit it now or delete. Maybe Tim can if he sees this. It was pointed out/corrected by Maine also, a few posts above yours. Cheers.

        1. Who knows by 4pm those awful numbers may be correct.
          Dow down 5.15% for March. The market hates tariffs. Good fortune.

          1. KingCash – My apologies. With all the crazy headlines today, I just kind of panicked and one of my trading buddies whose been right all year and is super long gold futures, in my frustration I just rushed to post. I am missing out big time on the volatility/commodities long trade this past week and a few weeks back I was looking at some EOY puts inventory on the S&P but didn’t pull the trigger. It’s now eating me up alive inside. Won’t do this again.

    1. good comment wrb-e/vclt pair has gone from 2 sigma rich in March to 3 sigma cheap today (3yr horizon)..this is typical for lower coupon preferreds,,,would expect continued underperformance targeting december 2021 lows on pair ,,on absolute price basis would target near 21.5

  7. NEE-PN finally hit my bid at 22.79 which I had forgotten about. Entered a bid for a little more at 22.76. Sold out of it back in October but now at around 6.2% I’m interested again.

    1. good comment.. nee-n/vclt pair nearing as many low coupon preferreds are 3 yr lows (underperformance)..was over 2 sigma rich on september 2023 to near 2 sigma cheap today (3yr horizon) ..on absolute price basis would target near 22.13

  8. Just a note that credit spreads have widened a little, but if we tank later in the day I want to be short HYG,PFF, and MUB . I’m long higher quality in each sector, and am short small quantities of the first 3.
    I think there are too many people who have a resistance to shorting anything.
    I’d buy puts if I really knew what was going to happen…..the only time that worked for me was the GFC

    1. I bought puts for hyg but the spread is weird and I had to test it at each nickel to get it to fill. it won’t cover much of the paper loss for all the hy component of the portfolio, but I’m buying more hy on the way down anyway since it’s reasonably clear to me that there won’t be anything on the short end of the curve at some point in the future. Do you match the position sizes so you fund your long treasury position with the proceeds from the short?

    2. good comment ..on absolute price basis closes below following levels are ominous
      PFF 30.65 (already happened)
      HYG 78.09 (about to happen)
      MUB 105.47 (already happened)

  9. ABLLL looks to be on sale again. It had an absurd run up last December, and now is back under par. The parent company’s basic plan is to buy up life insurance policies for cash at discount, and then hold them until the policy holder dies.

    It’s a 9.875% coupon, callable in 2027, maturing in 2028. Current yield is a little over 10%, YTC is about 11%, YTM is in between. Do your own research, of course, but I think they are a bargain. I sold it too early in the last run up to fully benefit and just bought back in now.

    1. I noticed they had a super quarterly which got me looking at the numbers…. a tough one to analyze because on the surface, they look pretty good for what it is, a 9 7/8% coupon senior note trading at a discount…. But then I saw what a gigantic amount of assets show up as good will…… yikes! Certainly not an easy one to figure out.

      1. 2WR I remember reading the first generation of insurers who came up with this business plan ran into problems. Abacus claims to have solved the issues that led to problems and companies getting out of this business.

    1. Westie? 😉
      Back away from the roulette wheel. Don’t get so excited.
      Quarterly report and investor day is coming up soon here in April.
      Ask yourself, do you buy on the rumor and sell on the news? Especially when talking bio techs.
      #1 sell and book a profit.
      #2 sell 1/2 and book a profit and keep the rest depending on your cost.
      #3 hold long term? Or trade in and out.
      Points. Majority of the shares held by the CEO, lots of debt mostly IOU’s to the same CEO who has taken more shares as pik. On the public float lots of institutions own, but not large quantities. Still losing money and has an ATM program in place so will probably need to borrow more money or issue shares. Lots of potential coming up. Approval in GB and EU, allowed by the FDA to distribute a ingredient that MRK can’t provide enough of so there’s a shortage. Has their own plant in New York to produce the compounded drug. Potential approval for lung cancer. Besides the approval they already have for bladder cancer. Agreement with a chain of urology centers to use their drug. Tests on going for prostate cancer. Original focus 3 years ago was a treatment for pancreatic cancer.
      So potential long term.
      I apologize if I missed any points.

      1. I only have a passing interest in the biotech space, and have placed a few losing bets. Do either of you have a recommendation for some generic overviews of how these orgs get their feet wet before they solicit the public for dollars and how those early securitizations happen? I’m aware that that part of the market has been more dormant than usual, and obviously know a bit about the big flops like SAVA, etc.

        A local organization asked my partner and I to do a little investor / researcher education on the matter, and I’m looking forward to working on the project, but hoped that some of you might be kind enough to show me the literature that made the biggest impression on you….it’s not lost on me that the university (hospital / teaching hospital) to industry pipeline takes on a lot of different forms, but since all of you have so many years of experience on the investing side, perhaps you’d share anything that resonated with you…

        always enjoy the commentary here, and may your riskier or less risky bets pay off (I’m starting to sell SGOV and buy some duration but slowly slowly …. KRP for the win too!)

        1. jb, can’t help you with anything that would give you an edge. Even the experts like private equity can’t pick winners on a consistent basis.
          Even the stock above being discussed, I ran across a stock investor who was a urologist and he posted he thought the treatment held promise but he knew nothing about judging if the company would be a successful investment.
          I am always looking for a long term hold, but I’m willing to sell if a stock gets overvalued to the point the stock price is ridiculous.
          I’m on this site because I learned after years of investing that income is better than chasing growth stocks that don’t pay a dividend.

          1. I’m not even that interested in taking positions myself, I’m mostly just curious about the funding funnel and the phenomenon that lead to the public investment for the sake of the research —> industry pipeline itself. I mean, I know at some level that the addressable market has to be evaluated, the treatment (or method or bio-IP) has to be reviewed, etc…but it would be nice to read some stories about how the researchers slogged through the decade (??) or so to get to the xxx million dollars needed do the trial…more of a capital markets look less of a gambling look.

            1. jb we could be looking at a lost decade in research without gov. spending. People today want instant results which is why there is so much love for AI.
              1800’s was about wars, industrial and colonial expansion and exploration. people talked the government into spending on a lot of this and it was doable as wealth grew to support the government growth.
              A group of scientists spent a decade studying DNA floating around in the ocean and matching it to every plant and animal living there. They didn’t get rich from doing it, probably developed skin cancer from exposure to so much sun. They were doing it because they love what they do. Where did all the funding to support this research come from? I suspect partly from the government. We have dumbed down what we teach in schools or allow, so we have several generations that don’t believe in science and question what this research accomplished and the waste of money spent on it.

              Only it wasn’t a waste. They discovered an algae that is a symbiotic host to a simple cell that makes nitrogen out of the air and water for the algae and releases excess back out into the environment. The article I read said one use of this discovery would be for land based agriculture to engineer plants to make their own nitrogen so we can stop dumping tons of fertilizer on the plants.
              Back to your question. The workings of how money is raised publicly to fund this research. I suspect this goes back to the organization who asked you and your partner to research how they can raise funding.
              This site is more for personal investing for retirement and saving for retirement. The only person here who could possibly advise you is Private and I don’t know how to get a hold of him, although there may be others here who can help but they have only shared their interest in personal investing.
              You might want to start your search over on the Silicon Investor website.

              1. August West would be good as well. If my memory serves me, at one point he was the CFO of a biotech company in the Bay area. He resurfaced here and posted not too long ago.
                There is a biotech forum in Silicon Investor that may be useful (biotech/medical):
                http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=60340
                Investor Village also has a biotech forum:
                http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=58
                and an IBRX forum:
                http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=20738

              2. thanks for taking the time to write the comment. I’m somewhat connected to the local startup / VC culture and have a sense of what they like to fund and at what size of stake, but also get the impression that the trials themselves run in the mid nine figures and the investors who buy the ipo may only do so if they have a sense the NIH (et al), were going to pony up a massive sunk cost in a grant form to make the risk worth taking. Your general purview of ‘what government funds and why’ seems pretty on point to me, and I tend to think of the government / private investment machine as a pendulum that swings one way or the other at different times (rural electrification, pentagon/nasa developments turned over to industry, whatever the case may be). The organization that asked us to inform the researchers about capital markets ponies up a decent chunk of change to fund the research, but certainly can’t throw it’s weight around like the feds do, did, or might not do. This, and I recognize that not all investments in science are commercial enough to justify wall street involvement, and should probably be understood as Adam Smith’s ‘Political Economy’ and not as tools to create market returns. III, come for the hot takes on the preferreds, stay for the collective wisdom of a nice group of folks 😉

                1. Jb glad to meet you! Even if it’s only on this forum. I appreciate your posting on events related to history. The understanding of the universe of interconnected things.

              3. Oh, I think we could manage to cut some gain of function funding and live without the next lab created, pandemic level virus.

                I also think it is insulting and condescending of you to pretend that anyone who objects to a lot of the obvious waste or propagandizing is due to their education being dumbed down, or their lack of belief in “science” as if such a thing is synonymous with whatever the government is funding at any given time.

                You should know better than to act like this. It is not appreciated, and it will not be allowed to pass unchallenged.

                1. Best to you Scott on your investments. For a change you are the one who turned this into a political statement.
                  Bye

              4. Bio-medical research is a low probability endeavor, with a huge potential payoff. It is best suited for the public dollar, not the impatient venture capital dollar. The best strategy is to fund many projects with small amounts, thereby maximizing the chance of getting the prized result, which is almost never apparent at the outset. Most biotechs will burn investor capital without producing a valuable product. I think the best biotechs are structured to have many irons in the fire — Roivant comes to mind. Still, not the best investment, IMO. It is far better to buy the companies that have a stable of successful products and are exploiting and buying new emerging technologies, such as Vertex.

                1. And I like and own both, with VRTX being the much, much larger position. But ROIV is, to me, an investment house (consolidator) of promising startup bio’s and will have many losers but the few big winners will matter. I am very bullish on that. They also sell before “big wins” to keep funding and cash flow stable. A good formula, IMHO. I could see ROIV once being a company to fund and help a budding VRTX. I had to reply when your post listed two of my fav stocks…

      2. IBRX like a bouncing ball. Big bounce up yesterday, down 9% today. Looking at the chart down over 60% from last May. But where does it go this year and next?

        1. Dan and Westie, felt nice to be rich even if it was just for one day.
          Dan, you’re asking questions, but I tried yesterday to explain.
          Early bio tech is a trading vehicle. Not a longer term hold. There are too many day traders and professional traders working for funds or traders like Lt.

          I like you clued in on the chart. You need to match the news to the chart.
          #1 around August or October 2023 the FDA issued a CRL
          (A complete response letter (CRL) is a notice issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) indicating that an application will not be approved in its present form)
          In IBRX’s case there was no issue with the drug or the treatment, no side effects requiring additional testing. ( i.e. going back to the drawing board)
          There was a problem with the manufacturing process that needed to be fixed to get approval. Company said X amount of time to get the problem fixed and re-apply to get FDA approval. Time marched on and investors got nervous with stock price going up and down. (trading, get it)
          Finally application re-submitted. FDA saying it is allowed up to 6 months to make a decision.
          #2 April 2024 rolls around. Look at the chart and see at the end of month the FDA finally issues a BLA ( Biologics license approval)
          #3 the excitement dies down when people realize that qtr. financial report doesn’t include a full 90 days of sales and company is giving away treatment to induce sales and cash is running low so more money is going to be needed. You get bloggers and traders making and posting speculations trying to manipulate the stock over on SA. Even guessing total sales over life of patent.( give me a break)
          #4 announcement trying to get approval of insurance companies to cover treatment and the get a J code assigned so Medicare will allow payment.
          #5 Nov. look at chart. Stock tanks when no investor day is announced and sales are not growing as fast as investors hoped. Everyone wants a rocket to the moon, not a slow and steady wins the race.
          #6 J code is approved first of the year, but this doesn’t have much of a reaction on the stock price because no announcement of how sales are doing. In the meantime other news such as possible use for lung cancer, partnering with another bio-tech to study this, possibility FDA may approve off use for lung cancer without going through a complete separate license application. FDA granting approval to use a different form of BRG manufactured in India and even approval for IBRX to sell this separately to urology cancer treatment centers since Merck can’t supply enough.
          #7 Next possible catalyst upcoming, release of the quarterly report and stockholders meeting ( which has been announced and not cancelled like the one in Nov.)
          Ok folks, I laid this snake out for you. Place your trades. I should have sold yesterday, locked in some gains and replaced shares I sold today. Why didn’t I do it? I’m looking at odds of getting caught trading too close to the April report and investor meeting.
          Again with the advice. This is for trades until it becomes an established company. Dr. Soon owns 80% of the company. He sold his first company and he is 72? will he sell this one? anything is possible, but I think this is going to be his legacy. Also, in a race don’t forget to look over at the competitors in the race and see where they are at.
          OK enough sharing and speculation BS

        2. danzeb said: “But where does it go this year and next?” A rhetorical question.
          We don’t know where IBRX will be next month or a year from now but with enough information we can put odds on a guess. I don’t own any but it’s interesting enough that I’m adding it to a watch list.
          Thanks Charles M for the very detailed response.

      1. What Rocks? you didn’t buy more as it went down then sold the higher cost shares when it popped!

        1. rocks and Charles
          IBRX
          My initial buy was at $2.99.
          Thanks to the expertise on this site – of which you two rank high IMHO – I put in a GTC at $2.70.
          Which hit.
          Now, like Charles says, what to do?
          What the hell, if you bought a long shot horse thinking it might win.
          Then it won one race and you got an offer slightly above your purchase..
          Sell it?
          Nah.
          Ride it for a while.
          Keeping in mind Tim’s comments about his biotech experience.

  10. Two thoughts on BC-C:
    – It’s going lower
    – BC-B was called. Will BC-C be called?

    1. BC Exposure to tariffs appears to be driving the common down and pulling preferreds with it. This is not new news but looks like a buying opportunity for BC-B especially with ex-div only days away.

      I have a 2002 Sea Ray 185, so this is a sentimental fav for me.

      1. Ted, I would have to deal with Nanny Fido , rated by Eagan Jones and most trade below par. telling me they are not well liked by investors especially the ones out 4 years.

  11. SPNT-B There’s been a seller on B all day long @ 25.17….. Seems attractive to me…. 25.17 = slightly over 8% YTC date 2/26/26. B will RESET ON 2/26/26 @ 5 YEAR TREAS + 7.298 if it is not called and then will not be callable again for another 5 years…… NR/BB+ Seems highly likely to not make it past 2/26/26.

    Just broke 25.17 and moved to 25.16 sales

    1. If called on 2/26/26, would the dividend accrual for the month of February be 26/30 of the entire month?

      1. Interesting question, GnG. I’ve never taken the time to find out how that actually gets figured for a Feb pay, no less with one 2 days before the normal pay date …… I just trust the calculator as determining it properly according to standards set by the industry. I’ve never even tested to see how what it comes up with compares with using an assumption such as yours……sounds like what you’re saying should be right.

        1. GnG and 2wr,

          From what I read in the prospectus:
          1. FULL divs are calculated on the basis of twelve 30-day months, but PARTIAL divs are calculated on the basis of the actual # of days elapsed. Prospectus, p. S-13.
          2. If redeemed, the final div will accrue up to the day before the call date. If the call date for SPNT-B is 2/26/26, the final div will accrue through Feb 25.
          Prospectus, p. S-17.

          I get a partial, final, div, accruing 25 days in February, and being called the next day, on 2/26/26.

          Here’s the SPNT-B prospectus.
          https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576018/000110465921087047/tm2120188-3_424b5.htm#tDOSB3

          1. Thanks mbg. If called the dividend corresponding to that last quarter should be $0.47

  12. I don’t think these are too illiquid but the SCE are trading at higher yields today. SCE.PRL is at 7.14% right now. I own some but not a recommendation. They have the CA fire situation that they have to deal with but I do know there are some of us that think they’ll make it through.

    caveat emptor

  13. I bot fgn 7.95 perpetual at 25.78 (25.73 stripped) for 7.03 ytc 12/15/2028… the fgn/sjnk pair has gone from near 3 sigma rich in december to over 2 sigma cheap today and near all time low set near inception 12/2023

    1. Nice trade mjtroll. For anyone that can’t pay over par in a taxable account, FGSN is a good trade here also now @ $24.60 with a 7.30% coupon.

      1. tks.. would recommend article on S/A titled FGSN: a 7.3% Baby Bond from F&G Annuities & Life by Arbitrage Trader dated 1/27
        and excerpt from it
        FGSN is fairly priced compared to OTC debt but overvalued relative to exchange traded debt, better options with higher credit quality exist in the sector
        because it was recently issues not enough history to make a judgement relative to vclt

        1. Or COVID did it for them.
          The same reason that care insurance blew massive holes in the insurance company income statement, was the same reason the viatical market tanked. People outlived the assumptions.
          COVID turned the tables because it had a very high mortality rate where the patient was above 70, and also caused the death of a not inconsiderable number of people in their 40’s and 50’s.
          So the life insurers felt the pain and the viatical bets paid off like gangbusters since 2020, because the viatical bets were to an age of probably somewhere around age 83-85 and when that person dies at 72-75, the return on the investment is huge.

    1. This is good news as I have a position in this thanks to several on this site. Only problem is trying to understand their financial statements. Really could use an insurance industry CFO to comment.

  14. Bloomberg reporting ATT is in talks to acquire Lumen’s fiber optic, LUMN down 10.5%, T is up

    1. T making a wise acquisition? Hmmm. They are so used to just paying other companies billions to not merge with them.

      1. Boy it’s a good thing themajor rating agencies don’t rate B. Riley….. I think RILY would hate to hear their interpretation of this debt reduction maneuver… They’re cutting $35 million by exchanging $123 million of senior debt for $88 million of junior debt and additional equity vehicles……

        1. It’s fun to watch a flailing investment bank try to dig itself out of a hole, isn’t it?

          Maybe someday they’ll even get current with their reporting obligations.

      2. B. Riley continues to chip away at its debt…good news for investors in RILYK and to a lesser extent RILYG.

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