Common Stock Chat

This page is set up for those that want to chat about various common stocks.

There are no rules–other than the usual–no politics.

199 thoughts on “Common Stock Chat”

  1. COST: Costco opened its 800th warehouse today. Five more warehouse openings are slated by the end of November. Revenues are running +10% year/year. Like many, their online sales have exploded this year. They are currently sitting on $12 billion in cash and talk of a special dividend in the spring is swirling.

    1. This afternoon Costco announced a special dividend of $10 per share to be paid next month!

    2. COST is certainly interesting. The strange thing to me is that Buffet exited his entire holding of COST. Since he’s smarter than me, that gives me pause…

  2. CUBI – I know some here follow CUBI – any opinion on shareholders now to be directly receiving shares of BankMobile upon the spinoff before the end of the year? I note a 1 year lockup on the shares which is not thrilling, but I look forward to receiving shares of BM Technologies [BMTX], which will be the corporate name of BankMobile once the shares are distributed:

    As previously disclosed, on August 6, 2020, Megalith Financial Acquisition Corp., a Delaware corporation (“Megalith”), MFAC Merger Sub Inc., a Pennsylvania corporation and (“Merger Sub”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Megalith, BankMobile Technologies, Inc., a Pennsylvania corporation (“BankMobile”) and Customers Bank, a Pennsylvania state chartered bank and the sole shareholder of BankMobile (the “Bank”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Original Merger Agreement”). On November 2, 2020, Megalith, Merger Sub, BankMobile, the Bank and Customers Bancorp, Inc., the sole shareholder of the Bank (“Customers Bancorp”), entered into a First Amendment to Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “First Amendment;” and, the Original Merger Agreement, as amended by the First Amendment, the “Merger Agreement”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, at the closing of the transactions contemplated by the Merger Agreement (the “Closing”), BankMobile will merge with and into Merger Sub (the “Merger”), with Merger Sub continuing as the surviving corporation.

    The Original Merger Agreement provided that a portion of the consideration payable to the Bank in the proposed Merger was to be paid in shares (the “Merger Consideration Shares”) of Megalith’s Class A common stock to the Bank. Pursuant to the First Amendment, the Original Merger Agreement was amended to provide that (i) Customers Bancorp would become a party to the Merger Agreement, (ii) the Merger Consideration Shares will now be issued directly to the stockholders of Customers Bancorp instead of to the Bank and (iii) Customers Bancorp may at its discretion, upon written notice to Megalith, redirect or reallocate the distribution of the Merger Consideration Shares at any time prior to the Closing to other parties.

    Additionally, the Original Merger Agreement was amended to provide that, subject to certain exceptions, there will be restrictions on the sale or transfer of the Merger Consideration Shares for a period of twelve months after the Closing, rather than for a period of 180 days after the Closing as contemplated by the Lock-Up Agreement attached to the Original Merger Agreement.

  3. Sold GAB, The Gabelli Equity fund today.
    its trading at almost a 9% premium to NAV compared to its 5 and 10 year average of close to zero. plus with its policy of paying out 10% of NAV as dividends per year and a current NAV of 5.24 i expect next years payout to be closer to .50.

  4. I’m sure a number of us are also interested in common stocks that provide decent dividends. I’ve owned AT&T (T) for a while, and with a 7.5% dividend, I’ve found it quite attractive. Sure, the share price is down after Covid, but before then it had been doing quite well. Frankly, at 7.5%, I don’t care too much about the share price (as long as it doesn’t drop dramatically). I’m trying to think if I’m missing something on this one, but it sure looks like a decent candidate for an income investor.

    1. AT&T is trading close to 10 year lows, so the downside risk for share price is minimal (imo). Dividend increases over the past decade have kept pace with inflation. AT&T has lots of cash flow, and the low interest rate environment make its massive pile of debt look less ominous. I’ve always maintained a core position in T but add to or subtract from that position depending on share price…currently adding.

      1. be care full guys, the old southern bell “SBC “, before the formation of current “T” had a big dividend in 2002, which was cut in half, the total return since that episode without reinvesting dividends, is like 1.9% for 18 years. If your in it now with a good cost OK, but starting a new position here leaves a taste in my mouth. debt & Hat size dividends are always a red flags.

        1. Meh…there is much more risk in the REIT space right now than there is with AT&T at these levels. I’m willing to put AT&T up against any REIT on your recent list of recommendations for total return over the next 3-6 months. Want to make a friendly wager on it Mike?

          1. Citadel West, your may be right about a 3-6 month time frame, which is irrelevant to me. I was only only speaking from experience in ’02 on old SBC I don’t recall posting any recommendation list of reits. I have commented on holding STOR and WPC and a couple PSA preferreds, and asked for an opinion of STAG, if that constitutes a recommendation, so be it. As far as exposure in the telecom sector, its Verizon & Telus up north. Better watch what I comment on in the future, if this is a betting “site”?

            1. I happen to think REITS are a terrible investment right now Mike, and I’m sure if we look back 20 years or so we can find a couple of “red flags” on both STOR and WPC. The difference I guess is that I don’t feel compelled to show up in REIT Chat to pour cold water on folks when they’re talking their book there. Since you don’t want to make a friendly wager, then maybe you’ll take some friendly advice.

              1. Citadel West, what’s a good invest investment now ? everything is overpriced including preferred’s, and reits have been hammered. How did I ” pour cold water”: on any bodies book? I’ll now keep my opinions to my self, read the good information, and dismiss the “vomit”.

              2. Get real – giving a differing opinion is not pouring cold water on anyone’s book. It’s a discussion forum, everyone will have different opinions. Learn from them rather than attacking someone who has a different opinion than you do

                And FWIW, I have owned T as well as a host of REITs for some time. My most recent buys from that group have been in REITS because they have been beaten down and I see the potential for more long term upside there in the right REITS. T is nice for the dividend but it has been range bound for years

                1. Agree with you Maverick. I own T but have not added to it in years. I think my cost basis is around 31 or so.
                  Recently, I have bought a significant position in FRT and small amounts of MNR and UBA on dips. More upside in them than T IMHO with a decent dividend while we wait.

                  1. Thanks Bill. I too have added some FRT. And I believe I mentioned recently I like a few of the Apartment Reits (AVB & CPT are my 2 favorites) as I see them undervalued now – and am willing to take a reasonable dividend while I wait

                2. Since when is offering to make a friendly wager with someone over a difference of opinion considered to be attack? Mike is clearly traumatized over the prospect of “betting” but that doesn’t mean I attacked him.

                  Anywhoo…my offer stands, your top REIT against AT&T, for % total return over the next 3 months. We’ll use this Friday’s close as the starting point, and you can sell your position and go to cash at any point along the way.

                  Any takers?

                  1. First off Citadel, all Mike did was give his opinion on T based on his past history with old Southern Bell. He never mentioned any REIT at all – you brought it up and challenged him to a wager. Mike declined because for him, just like for me, 3 to 6 months is irrelevant. Except for some planned flips of new issues, I typically invest for the long term – not 3 months. Seems Mike does the same

                    Second, you then told Mike “The difference I guess is that I don’t feel compelled to show up in REIT Chat to pour cold water on folks when they’re talking their book there. ” Then you followed that up with “Mike is clearly traumatized over the prospect of “betting” but that doesn’t mean I attacked him. ”

                    What the hell? Seems to me Mike simply gave his opinion on a stock and just because it was opposite of yours, you attack him for it for no reason and continue to do so.

                    And no, I want no part of your silly wager either. I do not invest for 3 months out

                    1. To all who commented and also “TIM”, Thanks for the support, I never intended and never will intentionally offend anyone. I’m learning where I can have a discussion and who to avoid. I certainly don’t want to taint this valuable resource.

                    2. mike–sorry if you had a bad experience, but you are right that some conversation is more accepted than others. I don’t think many folks intend to offend here–although it happens and I am of the thought that the ‘more the merrier’.

                    3. Go back and read my original comment about AT&T and you’ll see that I covered the debt issue as well as the historical trends in share price. There is absolutely no need to go back 20 years for “red flags”, unless the object is to throw dirt on the subject. In fact at least one of the REITS that Mike prefers to invest in doesn’t even have a 20 year track record to look at…go figure.

                      If you’re unwilling to back up your “opinion” with a wager that’s fine, but
                      don’t presume to lecture me about it… your crew doesn’t hold any exclusive franchise on profitable income investing, in fact far from it.

                  2. Maybe Warren Buffet, will take you up, Berkshire recently doubled down its stake in that newcomer STOR your referred to: I’ve heard he plays cards with Bill Gates you’ll have to ask him if he bets? good bye and good luck

                    1. Buffet and Gates play bridge. They have played competitively in-person and also play online at Gates is a part owner of bbo.

                    2. Citadel – Damn, I have a crew now – who knew. Can you please let me know who they are, I need to add them to my Christmas Card list.

                      As to T and REITS, you really are missing the point. As I said I have owned T for many years and I have owned various REITS for some time as well. There is a place for both in my portfolio. But I would not be putting my new money into T right now. And who cares if one of the REITS Mike likes hasn’t been around for more than 20 years? Are you saying a newer company can not offer a compelling investment?

          2. citadel west, just cleaning up some “old” business from your bet offer of last month. AT&T has done well along with the market. That newcomer “STOR” you beat up, in the “reit’ space has rallied 19.2% since you offered to bet for whatever reason. Not pouring cold water on anybody here. Both have a way to go past 3-6 months.

      2. Dave and CW

        I’m an Old Telephone Guy who is a retiree of an AT&T subsidiary (Avaya). My telecom common stock exposure is with LUMN and I suggest you give it a look in lieu of T.

        LUMN is a the old US West and a roll-up of major fiber plays and many rural telcos. The new CEO has been successful paying down the sizable debt with the free cash flow and I think (eventually) the stock price will rise significantly. The current yield is ~10%.

  5. Anyone have an idea on why PCG surged this week? I had been trading in and out of it for fun but it soared this week and I can’t find anything as to why.

    By the way, have they paid out the cumulative dividends on those preferreds yet?

  6. CUBI – I don’t profess to be a good stock analyst but it sure seems to be amazing just how hated all bank stocks seem to be today, no matter what news they announce… CUBI confirmed once again today that their target EPS for 2020 is $3/share, just as they have projected all year long and yet the stock is down on the day @ around $12/share or 4 P/E…. I guess banks are never getting out of the doghouse until “lower for longer” goes out of style.

  7. Sachem Capital (SACH) is breaking out big to the upside with volume, up 13% so far on the day. No news reported, so this might be a technical move based on the 50dma crossing above the 200dma. Good for all long positions, especially if there is some follow through next week.

    1. Decent follow through for Sachem Capital (SACH) today, currently up 5.00% on approximately 3x normal volume. This stock currently yields ~12.50% and goes ex-div at the end of October.

  8. The PBCT has very strong support at 10.5, I started to build a position in this dividend aristocrat.
    At least their 6.8% divies looks good for these times.

  9. Warning – the market is very dangerous right now. The same negative divergences are happening now that happened in ‘07, ‘11, ‘15, ‘18, ‘20 right before big corrections. A/D line, stocks above 50 dma., Vix, vxn, are not confirming new highs. Not to mention that QQQ is 25% above its 200 dma. We have only seen a higher number 2 times and they both ended badly. Reversion to the mean can be a bitch. At least take some profits and sell the weak stocks. Hope this warning saves you some cash. Capital preservation, ATB.

    1. Thanks Tim…yes your warning was very helpful. It gave me more confidence in trimming some stinkers and winners.

  10. Someone is long EVRG? It looks like it found it’s bottom at 50 and from there consolidation begins.
    Probably, I will start to slowly build a position there so that no one say that I am a permabear ))))

  11. Thinking about starting to pick up Dow’s Fallen Angels PFE, RTX and XOM. Not sure about the XOM, there is a lot of risks in the Energy sector.

    1. Yurly – Do you happen to know anything about ANGL, VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF?? I just saw an ad for it today and thought it might be worth investigating… Is this out of place for Common Stock Chat?

      1. I follow this index but have never bought ETF. I believe there is too much garbage there, e.g. such as CBL or X
        Now there is a great demand for Junk at the market and these funds (ANGL, JNK, HYG etc.) are trading high, but sooner or later many companies from their portfolios will go bankrupt and investors will write down their losses.
        Too much risk for the 5% yield IMO.

    2. Yuriy: saw you posted in “canadian discussion” thought you might have an opinion on a canadian fallen angel Suncor SU “buffett” increased position ?
      In roth, no withholding of dividends. Saw some buy ratings and price targets, thanks anyone else for input, maybe “canuck buck”

      1. Of the Canadian commons I’m currently long only on the NTR.
        SU is a “buy” just because is a WB backed, but personally I prefer not to buy loss-making companies. Especially from the energy sector. I own some HSE but only their prefs.

      2. Mike, I’ll chirp in here as a follower of many Canadians. Do a deep look at these two royalty streamers which do have OTC symbols as well: FRHLF and PREKF. Of course they are available TSX. Another outlier is IPPLF. I bot into all three and now is a good entry point in my reckoning.
        I have followed them for years and the presentation they have on their sites tell their real story and diligence on management through every up and down cycle. Even if you want to just understand another business model. Freehold pays monthly. The other two used to pay monthly, but quar.
        With these streamers you are an OWNER and just let the hardened management do their jobs. They move the div up and down as a target percentage of free cash flow. If divys go down with the cycle then buy when they are low like now. Say it again, “like at these current prices!”
        These are tough survivors and the two royalty streamers have NO debt, own NO infrastructure or hold no liability, plugged into delivery systems. Core holdings for me esp at this price. Good ‘oily’ holdings in lieu of companies with massive debt and liability issues.
        Oh yeah, SU is proven tough SOBs too!
        Happy hunting! JA

        1. joel thanks for the leads. I have several Canadians in my roth as foriegn exposure, BIP, BAM, EMB, NTR, BNS, TU. more comfortable up north than europe or far east, I’ll checkout tax treatment of your ideas plus canadian prefferreds. thanks again!

  12. Today I bought two regional banks – PEBO and ASB both paying in the 5-6% range on common dividend. I think there is probably more upside here than in the preferred space at the moment.

  13. I just noticed that a call option that I previously sold on OXY (and many other call and put options) have now been reclassified as “non-standard” options. Does anybody know why and what is the effect. Could it have had anything to do with their junk bond offering? Any info or suggestion as to where to look would be appreciated.

    1. they distributed warrants, so you have to deliver those as well hence non standard. see recent press releases

  14. PG&E (PCG) started trading. Seems like they gave away the company on IPO, which is usually the case. In my experience, these are great buys once they come out of bankruptcy. The investment banks under price it so they get to buy all they want to make up for their losses. Even M* commented how low it was. Food for thought.

  15. I opened a small position in AT&T this morning, with an eye on the ex-dividend date upcoming in several weeks. The current yield on T is around 6.85% which is reasonable in this environment. This is a tough market to forecast, but my expectation is that AT&T has the cash flow needed to maintain its dividend. I fully expect another ‘risk-off’ correction as second quarter earnings are reported, so there may be opportunities to add to this position over the summer.

    1. I’ve been considering T for some time now, attracted (as usual) by the yield. The company is working on reducing the mountain of debt they piled up in their shopping spree and to that end they may have to resort to some asset sales. But the best thing that could happen is for the CEO to finally leave and allow a more conservative manager to come in and tackle that debt. I also believe there will be more opportunities to add to a starter position later in the year.

      1. AT&T you have to go in knowing the next 10yrs the stock will stay flat to go down. If you reinvest all dividends this will cause a great opportunity for wealth creation.

        Once the business leverage is reduced growth will return and price appreciation will restart.

        Essentially businesses like this for most investors are non-investable due to the long timeline involved.

  16. Recently been on the look out for quality CEF funds using data from the recent crash.

    Screened for positive 3/5yr NAV trend which eliminated 80% of funds. 100% coverage of distribution. and 80% investment grade or higher.

    Truly wanted unleveraged funds to avoid messy deleveraging when markets go irrational. Only found 2 so I started to review leveraged candidates as well. Municipals seem to be the goto asset class for this type of screen.

    Which makes me wonder when states are asking for debt bailouts.

    Target Date:
    (Muni) BTT – BlackRock Municipal 2030 Target Term (Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 3.16%

    (Muni) MTT – Western Asset Muni Defin Opp Tr Inc (Leverage N) Current Distribution: 3.63%
    (Muni) NXR – Nuveen Select Tax Free Inc (Leverage N) Current Distribution: 3.32%

    (Muni) BBN – BlackRock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust (Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 5.62%
    (Muni) EIM – Eaton Vance Municipal Bond (Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 4.65%
    (Muni) DTF – DTF Tax Free Income (Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 3.38%
    (Muni) MQY – BlackRock Muniyield Quality (Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 4.36%
    (Muni) BYM – BlackRock Muni Inc Qty Trust (Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 4.24%
    (Muni) DMF – BNY Mellon Municipal Income(Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 4.19%
    (Muni) BAF – BlackRock Muni Inc Inv Qty Tr (Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 4.56%
    (Muni) PMO – Putnam Muni Opportunities(Leverage Y) Current Distribution: 5.02%

    1. BBN is a different breed of Muni bond fund, a CEF holding taxable municipals and Build America Bonds, which is why it’s yield is higher than the others.

  17. Looking at some of Nomad’s old comments and saw that on Friday another of Rita Moron picks bit the dust. ATAX cuts its dividend 52%
    Also they paid off their debt with Deutsche bank and terminated their relationship and opened new debt financing with lender Mizuho Capitol. Like taking one credit card to pay off another.

  18. Some commons that are well down from pre-virus highs, have a noteworthy dividend, and seem like recovery candidates. Which of these should be avoided? I already own one, but a couple others look pretty tempting…

    Discover DFS 4.3%
    FedEx FDX 2.2%
    IBM 5.5%
    JP Morgan-Chase JPM 4.0%
    Coca-Cola KO 3.6%
    Wells Fargo WFC 8.3% (I’m not confident this can stay this way for long)

    1. Recently added to my positions in DFS and TD, BNS. More confident in Canadian banks loss provisions.

      Tempting picks:
      Adp 2.55% or payx 3.68%
      Gd 3% or rtx 4.46%
      Eqr 3.98% psb 3.45%

      Avoid wfc, jpm as jpm has already indicated dividend will be suspended or cut in last conference call. If jpm cuts will cause domino effect.

      IBM is unable to return to growth seems they are in a binary mode with recent acquisition of red hat. If they can’t grow revenue the dividend will be under further pressure.

      1. PPL, ASMIY, MSB. Assuming there’s life on earth post CV19, or the government cytokine storm response.

      2. Micaha, I bought RTX around 57.50 an as I posted before I made the error of buying pre 1st qtr. Release of financials. It dropped to around 54 and had me sweating, but I am looking at it as a long term hold both a dividend and growth stock. Few defense technology companies under 100.00 a share. July upcoming bid for replacement of all B 52 engines and spare engines and spare parts. Hope they get it. This pulling out of treaties with Russia, our Allies and antagonizing China in South China sea and resurgence of cold war arms race has me worried, but might as well make money off it

        1. rtx, gd, lhx Once you think they are down and out another contract shows up. Blowing up stuff never goes out of fashion.

  19. I reduced my cash position from 72% to 67%.

    Purchased an oversized position in Wells Fargo Common Stock. The current dividend is 7.7%. The price on the common stock is back to 2011 levels. It has been cut in half this year. From $54 a share down to $26 and change.

    The next ex-dividend date is tomorrow 5/7.

    How the economy is going to recover with all the money center banks doing so badly that they are going back to 2011 levels is beyond me. So, is this around the low for the money center backs (Citibroup is down about 45%)? I have no clue but I don’t see much downside at this price. If it does, I will buy at 2007/2008 levels.

    1. Not a bad move, Steve. If WFC can keep working on fixing their reputation, they’ll be just fine I think. On another note, COF got a little gut punched by Moody’s today (worried about credit card defaults and asset quality issues):

      Outlook Actions:

      ..Issuer: Capital One Financial Corporation

      ….Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

      ..Issuer: Capital One, N.A.

      ….Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

      ..Issuer: Capital One Bank (USA), N.A.

      ….Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

    2. Well I am in for a wild ride. Picked up my first Defense stock yesterday, 200 share of RTX yesterday at 58.65 goes ex-div. 5-14
      Compared to other defense stocks its cheap, but there is a reason. Combined company of Raytheon & United tech is now a large company in the market but United had more sales to the public sector which will be hurting for the forseeable future even with its international sales.
      May flip just before the dividend and then buy back.

    3. I’m a long-time shareholder, retaining my WFC position, this is dirt cheap for the stock but don’t be surprised if the dividend gets cut.

  20. Shell ADRs off ~13.5% on this news

    The Hague, April 30, 2020 – The Board of Royal Dutch Shell plc (“RDS” or the “Company”) today announced an interim dividend in respect of the first quarter of 2020 of US$ 0.16 per A ordinary share (“A Share”) and B ordinary share (“B Share”), reduced from the US$ 0.47 dividend for the same quarter last year.

    The pace and scale of the societal impact of COVID19 and the resulting deterioration in the macroeconomic and commodity price outlook is unprecedented. The duration of these impacts remains unclear with the expectation that the weaker conditions will likely extend beyond 2020. In response, Shell has taken decisive actions to reduce our spending and position our businesses to compete in the current lower commodity price environment and uncertain demand outlook. The Board of Royal Dutch Shell has taken the decision to reset its dividend to provide financial resilience and further flexibility to manage the uncertainty. Shell is taking the steps necessary to ensure that we are well-positioned for the eventual economic recovery.

  21. FWIW, opened a starter position in FLR, about 80% off its late 2018 high. Lots of industrial and government work, paying a little under 5% dividend. I expect it to double over the next year and a half or so. Any thoughts?

    1. I hadn’t thought about Fluor in years. Looking at recent events I know why.

      Even absent COVID this company has a bag full of problems. It was an $80 stock not very many years ago and it recently went under 3. It’s definitely a contrarian bet. Be sure to read all the recent SEC filings before you go big.

      A good acquisition candidate, perhaps. BAM is a possible acquirer.

      1. Yeah, tell you the truth, I sold it next day for a couple of bucks, but keeping an eye on it. Just strikes my left-sided brain as a “person of interest” and I may get it again, as you say one of the future survivors may take it over. It’s occurred to me, now that I’m working at home, that I may be able to play a name or two for short term gains in our qualified accounts. Did the same with ERX, speaking of danger, at the same time. I’m out at the moment. Thanks, Bob, I wish I had the time — and the smarts — to get into the Canadian prefs, maybe that time is coming. Best of luck!

    2. Fluor had a couple of favorable mentions in Barrons this week as a possible industrial value play. Also mentioned were Flowserve, United Rentals, and Emerson Electric. Of those four, my money would be on Emerson.

    3. I took a look at FLR after the Barron’s mention but all the recent drama makes me want to avoid it.

      I did notice that their small-cap subcontractor GVA is trading at 10-year lows and pays 3%.

      This is not a recommendation as I have only started DD.

  22. Just saw this somewhere else. Makes ya think, don’t it…

    “The worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few people as possible escape the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited for volume of trading to return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next 24 months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable.” –The Crash of 1929 by John Galbraith.

    I’m 15-20% cash and wondering if it’s enough of a cushion.


    1. Call me dumb but i am 70% in cash. i have been selling hard the last few weeks as things recovered. I was fortunate that i cashed in my target 2020 fund back in february when this started, that was 30% of my portfolio. I wish i had cashed out everything then. At one point i was down 16%, now i am only down 4.5% and i can live with that until the market stabilizes (maybe it will be 24 months). My strategy is to collect dividends, i am not in this for capital gains so i will wait until things stabilize rather than try to buy low. Fortunately the dividends are not critical as i am not yet retired. Currently a 4.5% loss puts me back to where i was around fall last year.

      1. jmp, by the way that was a great reminder of how sour things can go. Not saying it will but it’s a great reminder, thx for posting.

  23. Recently purchased shares in ATO (Atmos Energy) A rated texas gas regulated ute with narrow moat on its recent drop.

    In searching through this sites comments their is no mention of this ute which I found odd given the loyal ute fan base.

    From all financial indications it appears steadily growing and extremely safe dividend. Geographically exposed to Texas which the regulator at times has been ute unfriendly (recent CNP rate case). No preferred issuance but plenty of bonds trading above PAR.

    Maybe I’m not getting it.

    1. Micach, You answered your own question. No preferred stock. Right or wrong, that appears to be the focus. If it had a preferred you would here more about it. I remember owning ATMOS 25 years ago or so.

  24. This weekend I spoke with the Supply Chain Directors for two large publicly traded firms. One is a spice firm and the other a construction equipment firm.

    I asked about the virus impact and their responses. Both have significant plants and distribution in China. One also has two plants in Italy. Both are reliant upon India.

    My question concerned the Communist Party in China and its likelihood of “taking over” their plants if the economy of China deteriorates. Both expressed hesitancy to criticize China publicly. But, both also said the Chinese Govt. is inside their plants and directing any operations/exports.

    My question concerns the large cap stocks that are reliant upon China. I would appreciate thoughts from this board on the risk for those large cap stocks.

    I did NOT speak with Apple but it greatly concerns me. As far as I know, Apple cannot operate without its Chinese supply chain. That seems to make Apple more of a risk.

    I am focusing on large cap stocks that I believe in the next five years can recover nicely.

    Appreciate any thoughts here.

    1. Keep your eye on Whirlpool, lot of plants in US but idling some due to demand. It has already hit what I would of thought was a good price range (mid 70’s ) From when I was looking at it a couple weeks ago and talking to a nephew in law. If you want to buy in I would nibble as Tim has said. Personally, Now that I have seen this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to low 50’s over the next couple months as we see how much damage has been done to the economy.

    2. We are simply staring into an abyse right now as estimates are just being revised down on a huge GDP drop. I own or highly desire to own the following companies but waiting for Q2 results to roll in.

      Financial Services Companies:
      CME Group (CME)
      Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE)
      The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
      Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)
      Paychex (PayX) / Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

      5G Picks
      Crown Castle International Corp (CCI)
      Bell Canada (BCE)
      Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

      Consumer Related:
      Discovery Financial Services (DFS)
      Unilever (UN)
      Lowe’s (LOW)
      Dollarama Inc (DOL.TO)

      General Dynamics (GD)
      Honeywell (HON)
      Rockwell (ROK)

  25. Steve A and All, appreciate your USB insight, am looking at the preferred. Wondering about commons of the 5 major Canadian banks? I read and super respect the Canadian prfrd mavens on III, but find it’s too complex for my feeble brain (friends sometimes call me D minus), so interested in the commons. Made money with all of them over the past few years and closed out last holdings (BNS in mid-50s) six or so weeks ago, and now I see they’re yielding 6-8 percent again. Tempting. They bounced a bit today. I’m all in on 3 of 5 portfolios, but looking for an alternative to fixed income for dry powder in the other 2. Appreciate any insights. D

    1. Not a big 5 Canadian bank – CWB Canadian Western Bank. Price has not recovered over concerns of debt exposure to oil and gas industry.

      Missed the boat on td/ry. Only buy if yield is above 5%.

  26. Purchased 25% position in DTE common this morning at $82 which is approximately 40% below it’s 52 week high of $135.67.

    Have order in for another 25% at $78. At a price of $80 per share, the yield on the common would be 5%

  27. Consider myself very fortunate this morning, I brought a 50% position in US Bancorp common stock at $30.05. At that price, the current yield is 5.6%. This is the 7th largest bank in the US and Buffet’s 7th largest holding. Naturally, it has been stress tested. This bank does not have a lot of overseas exposure.

    $30 per share is below its 2012 stock price. The price in the financial crisis was around $15 per share.

    At $30.05, this is a more than 50% drop from its 52 weeks high of $61.11.

    At this point, I am looking at common stock buys. After searching all weekend, this is the only one I found that I wanted to invest in.

    1. Sorry.

      This is the 9th largest buffet holding in terms of $$ invested according to CNBC Buffet portfolio tracker.

      This is the 5th largest bank in the US

  28. Airlines have been hit hard. It will probably last for some weeks, probably months. I believe they’re asking for gov’t funding. But when this virus problem subsides, surely airlines will recover in a significant way, won’t they?

    Even with the huge gains on Friday (3/13), American is still down over 50% since January 1. United down over 57%. Spirit is worse, down 62%. Southwest got hit the least, down 23%. The ETF for airlines, JETS, is down something like 43% for the year.

    I wouldn’t buy a cruise line for quite a while, but the airlines would seem to have a more significant and quicker recovery likelihood. Maybe a nibble here and there until it looks like a turnaround is in site…

    1. Lower energy prices normally provide a tailwind to earnings for the airlines also, but this market is anything but normal.

  29. I’m scaling into MMM below $150 on the theory it had the better part of its correction before the latest general downturn. So far it has pretty good relative strength. If I see some good capitulation, I’ll write put strikes at $135 or below.

    Also looking at PSX and RY the same way, but I haven’t started buying any yet.

    I already wrote puts on EPD (too early), but I’ll be OK being assigned.

    My favorite royalty trusts (MSB, SBR, DMLP) are almost into buy range, though I’d only add to MSB.

  30. PPL is off almost 3% today after hardly moving on Monday and the first half of Tuesday. The only news I can see is the CEO is stepping down and a new CEO was named. Seems like an over reaction to what looks like an orderly rotation in the C-suite. With an ex-dividend date approaching (3/9)…this may be a trading opportunity. PPL currently yields 4.8%.

  31. XOM has been beat down mercilessly. Adding a starter position here along with RDS.B. Two excellent balance sheets.

        1. Alpha, Im not feeling it yet. The XOM premium is not there anymore. There isnt any reason why it cant join some of the other Integrated Oils with a 7% divi with risk of a cut.

          1. It might be better to value XOM by their cash flow statement rather than by the balance sheet.

            If you do that it might be harder to convince yourself that the stock is a bargain at 54.

            Not sure what multiple of cash flow xom would deserve so I can’t say

  32. Anyone on here follow the solar industry? SunPower (SPWR) specifically. I’m just trying to get a feel for the upcoming spinoff of the manufacturing arm to Maxeon. Current shareholders will become shareholders in both companies after the spinoff. I own about 300 shares. Thinking of selling before the spinoff. I don’t know anything about Maxeon yet – I do plan to do a little research, but just thought I’d see what the sentiment on here was before making any rash decisions… TIA

    1. Mark,
      I am not directly involved in the Solar business although a project estimator for Tesla Solar reached out to our company a couple days ago and I had a discussion with him about supplying to them.
      The state of California has mandated all new homes be built with solar. But I don’t believe that is where the money is at. In talking to people in the business its in the large scale mega projects. Even then these go from project to project and if a company doesn’t have multiple projects in the pipeline the revenue streams can dry up. That has been the problem with residential solar, so much money has to be spent on marketing, call centers, sales and installation just to land a job that the margins are thin. Kind of like the Calif gold rush, the only people making the money were the ones selling the picks and shovels to the miners.

      1. Hi Charles,
        Thanks for your thoughts. While I agree that commercial / utility scale solar is where the real money is, it is interesting to note that SunPower actually has far better margins in residential solar. While I find that encouraging, especially in light of the fact that California is going to be a big driver in residential solar, my question was really more pointed towards the separation of it’s manufacturing business and its sales side business.

        It looks to be a roughly 70/30 split with the majority of shares staying with SunPower. I’m overall bullish on solar, so maybe I’ll just hang on and see what plays out. I also have small positions in First Solar (FSLR), Terraform Power(TERP), Pattern Energy Group (PEGI), and Brookfield Renewable (BEP)

  33. BANX – Anyone follow this company? Shareholders are being asked to vote for “Approval of a new management agreement (the “New Investment Advisory Agreement”) between the Company and StoneCastle-ArrowMark Asset Management, LLC (“StoneCastle-ArrowMark”), a newly-formed investment adviser that is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ArrowMark Colorado Holdings, LLC (“ArrowMark Partners”), which would replace the current management agreement between the Company and StoneCastle Asset Management LLC…” It looks like in the details this change essentially makes Josh Seigel disappear in a continuing role of importance, though he theoretically will continue in some titular capacity. IMHO, Seigel’s the reason to be BANX. I have no feel for ArrowMark but my inclination is to oppose this change by voting NO. Anyone else in this and have an opinion? It’s been a nice steady performer over the 2 1/2 years I’ve owned it…

    1. 2wroses

      I visited with the company about two years ago. What you have to understand are the following. Banx holds mainly proffered issues from local and regional banks. Mostly because the banks will not sell equity. The holdings in the fund are only the tip of the iceberg as Josh has a private firm with major assets.In the past I did not buy Banx as I did not see upside and the yield did not excite me. Today that is less true given the new environment.
      When I read the news release it seemed clear that Josh was giving up control of banx. To me this was strange unless he had health or other issues which meant that he could not actively manage things. I’m afraid I don’t know any more and know nothing about the buyer. I too would be against the sale unless there is something that we do not know. The cfo and the ir people were clear and helpful and overall I’ve had a good impression of the firm. If you learn more, would like to know. tia sc

      1. Thanks for your input, sc…. I decided just to not vote since there was not enough compelling info imho on ArrowMark to think getting a 10 cent payout plus promises of increased dividends was compelling enough to overcome Seigel pending departure as a result of this change should it pass… I discovered that not voting is the same as voting no so I guess I’ll just continue to be an abstainer. Confirming Seigel’s exit from BANX occurs for all practical purposes should this go through only reconfirms I’d vote NO anyway…. I was surprised to see he’s only 48 yrs old..

        1. 2wroawa-
          A I suggested above, we need more information on why he left. If he sold control of the management company then there must be a reason because his private company located at the same office- has a lot of money under management. For this reason, I thought perhaps it related to health issues but I have no insight.The original announcement came as a total surprise. sc

  34. Re-posting a comment/question from last night about energy complex equities, originally directed to Citadel West, but interested in opinions and insight from all III readers:
    Greetings, CW, apropos your interest in WMB, wondering how your take on energy names has evolved since New Year’s? I see SLB closed back under 34 again today, yield heading back toward 6 percent. I played it three times last year from low to high 30s, last time up over 40, and picking up several dividends along the way. Looking at opening a small position again, especially if it weakens further in next week or so — it goes ex-div in a couple of weeks. I like these volatility driven short term (and small quantity) plays to juice yield. I’ve also stumbled, entered positions in ET recently that are under water, but holding for yield and ready to leg in further if it drops significantly. Just curious what you may be thinking. Thanks and best wishes.

    1. Good morning D…I was on a holiday and missed your original comments here regarding WMB and the other energy names. While I generally think that income investors need to hold dividend paying common shares as part of an overall strategy, I have been disappointed by my picks in the energy sector so far this quarter.

      WMB has mostly been a loser since I first started to nibble at it in December, and I have since cut my position to a bare minimum. I also have some shares of OXY, which is still in the green but have lost much of their earlier gains. I ditched my shares in BP when they started to turn red, and never pulled the trigger on RDS/B.

      I may circle around and try to play the bounce in some of these names, but my general feeling is that the energy sector is still bottoming and the risk of capital loss there is still significant. The better way to get some dividend exposure to energy sector may be to just own XLE.

  35. Corrections are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get…lol. I still believe we have one more wave lower in Spx below 3200. That should be a great buy opportunity. ATB

  36. Amazon (AMZN) pushing above its 200dma and making a break topside this morning +3% on 2X volume. Will be interesting to see if it can hold the gains or fall back down again.

  37. SAVA or FDX anyone?
    Seems insiders bought at both of these.
    Sava is a low priced stock (Red Flag) but i may play with just 700 shs bought at 2.65. I have no idea where it will trade by 9:45
    FDX is a giant shipping company and i will buy 100 shs only at 148.90
    I’m not expecting big moves at all..looking for $250 minimum gain.

  38. This is a much quieter page than sandbox, but my question is probably more closely related to common stocks…. Hope to get a few replies.

    Anyway, was wondering if anyone here has experience with FastGraphs?

    As I am still dabbling in common shares, this seems a good way to get a quick picture of a company. If nothing else, a good starting point for further DD. At $480 for an annual subscription though, I’m wondering if other’s see value in it. Are there other products where I can get same / similar info for less or free? Do the Level II platforms on the brokerage sites show anything similar? These FastGraphs are pretty easy for me to understand.

  39. I’m more hopeful about our investment in The Williams Companies (WMB), which has been rising on above average positive volume for the past two weeks…even shrugging off the usual dip in share price associated with going ex-dividend. WMB is a large domestic natural gas infrastructure company which is 90% owned by institutions. We’re looking to capture a 10-15% capital gain in the next four months, along with a couple of dividend payments. The Williams Companies’ most recent presentation where they update their strategy and guidance is linked below.

    1. Greetings, CW, apropos your interest in WMB, wondering how your take on energy names has evolved since New Year’s? I see SLB closed back under 34 again today, yield heading back toward 6 percent. I played it three times last year from low to high 30s, last time up over 40, and picking up several dividends along the way. Looking at opening a small position again, especially if it weakens further in next week or so — it goes ex-div in a couple of weeks. I like these volatility driven short term (and small quantity) plays to juice yield. I’ve also stumbled, entered positions in ET recently that are under water, but holding for yield and ready to leg in further if it drops significantly. Just curious what you may be thinking. Thanks and best wishes.

  40. We finally rang the register on Macys (M) yesterday, after missing a chance to do so last week. When I started the position in mid-August, my expectations were to capture a 20%+ capital gain plus a couple of dividend payments, and while the stock did run up over 12% a couple of times, it always fell back down again shortly after. Our trade did generate a roughly 6% gain plus two dividend payments, but that is not a sufficient reward (imo) for the risk of a four month hold.

    1. One of my rules is to avoid retail. Too much like a game of musical chairs. Too many participants for all to prosper and the winner/loser classification seems to get scrambled every quarter. Way too much work to follow trends. Plus the yields are generally not enticing.

      1. You’re right Vinny…its easy to get burned by individual retail names. A lot depends on your tolerance for risk and like you said how much time you spend following trends.

  41. Sentiment is extremely frothy at the moment and Spx at new highs without a Vix at new lows. I expect a correction sometime in Q1 or Q2. Be careful out there. ATB.

    1. I suspect if / when fed stops repo program that will be a catalyst to start a correction. 3190 needs to be broken to confirm at this point.

  42. I forgot to check my i-phone and didn’t respond to a text: PLCE Insider Buy at 9:05 AM.
    It would have only made sense buying pre mkt. By 9:36 AM it’s move was over.
    You snooze–You Lose.

  43. For anyone on III who may be holding or following it, PPL closed up c. 6% today, highest close since late 2017. I don’t see any specific news, wondering if anyone has an insight In to what‘s going on? Thanks

    1. D, Seems to be related to the blowout British vote and a surety of Brexit actually happening. It’s amazing when people get out of the way so that choking regulations and stupidity can be eradicated and free markets are let loose to do their thing. Sounds like another recent historical event around our neck of the woods.

    2. D, The regulators were about to put the choke hold on allowable equity rate of return for them during next approval cycle which is 2021 or 2022. The assumption is basically what A4I is suggesting. That the powers that be may be more lenient on utes in their rates of return. The Labour party was still yakking about nationalizing them. That chatter will be gone for now.

    3. I took some profits in PPL on Friday afternoon. When someone offers a years worth of dividend income in a single day I usually take it.

    4. D, sorry for the late reply. Just catching up on this tread. PPL generates a large amount of it’s revenue from UK operations and concern over brexit, etc have kept pressure on the PPL shares. Boris Johnson’s impressive re-election has caused companies like PPL, SSE and others to get a significant boost.

  44. SAGE CEO and other officers bought $2 Million of their plummeting stock at 64.20.
    I bought at too high a price a few minutes ago at 64.62
    Its at 64.26 bid now
    Anyways, I hope after a 80 point drop that this is a FLU shot in the arm.

    10 minutes to countdown

    1. Thank You Insider Cow.
      I kept some shares just in case Sage rebounds 10 or more points.
      The bad news is my Medicare part B will go up in 2021 as a result of gains and other income in 2019.

    2. Newman – I don’t normally watch recommendations on the Stock page, but just happened to notice your timing on SAGE….Great call!!!! Congrats…. You bot it too high at 64.62???? Pssssshaw…….

      1. 2WR, The credit goes to my younger brother who filters the best bets.
        He was pumped up and bought 1200 shs and i did 750 shs.
        We had a great day. Normally i make $200-700 on these buys, but this one was a doozy.
        I overslept on a few issues and missed those.
        But , i’ll post new ones as they come.
        The Inside Buys only work in a Bull Market .

  45. I have a generalized question about trade executions, but I’ll use a trade this morning on RILYL as an example (even though it’s not a stock). This morning there were 2 trades executed for 1000 shares and 400 shares at 25.23 at 9:44.33 AM. Simultaneously, 1000 shares and 400 shares also show up as being traded at 25.2375. Can anyone explain why this frequently happens? I was the buyer of the 400 lot at 25.23. Was the execution of 400 at 25.2375 and sale to me at 25.23 an example of my broker being willing to execute on my behalf while eating .0075? Certainly these were related trades and not coincidental. Anyone have an explanation?

  46. Citadel West, Back in the day, I eagerly waited for Saturdays when Barron’s would come to the newsstand.
    It was a huge paper with immense data . I would read the musings of Abelson and company. Many guests were asked for their outlook. But, Year after year of S&P growth did not deter Barron’s from their bearish outlook. Five years on, I realized this relationship was not helping me understand the market and make money.
    I have not touched a Barron’s in 25 years and i’m better off for it.
    So when i said the bad news was their write up, i felt they were jinxing the stock.

    1. IMHO, Barrons has gone way down hill since the Abelson days.. To me, reading what’s available today thanks to, it’s become not much more than a dumbed down weekly tout sheet.

      1. I agree. I sold out my final shares of expe at 110.69.
        I erased the symbol from my Fido watch list as well.
        That gain should pay for the office crews lunch this week and the feral cats food in the back yard.

        Cash me outside y’all

    2. I still enjoy reading Barrons on Saturday morning occasionally, but I totally understand your sentiment. My personal jinx is that guy Jim Kramer on TV…

      1. CW, My brother emailed Kramer about some bad picks and got a nasty e-mail from Kray Kray.
        I see where you play Macys stock. I admit i’m intrigued, but I’m too busy working, no SLAVING for my daughters fledgling business to watch the stock markets up and downs.
        I used to play Teva, but it ran away from me after $7.50…
        I’ll watch out for your comments though.

        1. Thats funny Cramer got his dandruff up on his bald palate over a critical email from a bad pick. Cramer doesnt say it often enough, but he does consistently say index funds are largely the way to go investing in stocks.
          But, there would be no show if all Cramer ever said was invest in low cost index funds though.

  47. Insider buy at EXPE.. I picked up 150 shs at 108.79 just now (5:30)PM
    First inside buy last week was at 98
    The CEO and CFO were booted, usually that’s bad news.
    But what the hay.
    Only bad news is Barron’s likes it in a write up on 12-6
    This inside buy was at 108.33, $ 2.5 Mill by VP
    Another risk is holding it overnight. One never knows what’s going to impact us tomorrow AM

    1. “Only bad news is Barron’s likes it in a write up on 12-6”

      Ok, that’s pretty funny…

  48. In a week that saw the general markets rise, Macys (M) did not perform well at all, and remains stuck below its 20 day and 50 day moving averages. Macys goes ex-dividend on Thurs 12/12 paying 38 cents per share, so any moves up this week are likely going to be followed by a move down on Friday. After holding Macys since mid-August and being up over 10% at a couple of points in time, we currently only have a slight gain when you add in a couple of dividend payments. Perhaps more patience is needed, but opportunity costs are starting to weigh on this investment. We may be sellers on the open Friday.

  49. Ready Capital to join the the S&P Small Cap 600 – At opening this puts RCA in the money as a convertible

    NEW YORK, Dec. 2, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — S&P Dow Jones Indices will make the following changes to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600:

    S&P MidCap 400 constituent Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASD: ODFL) will replace SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Cabot Microelectronics Corp. (NASD: CCMP) will replace Old Dominion Freight Line in the S&P MidCap 400, and Ready Capital Corp. (NYSE: RC) will replace Cabot Microelectronics in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the open of trading on Monday,

  50. Another stock which has come across our radar screens recently is major US oil and gas pipeline provider The Williams Companies (WMB). Williams stock has not had a great year and the sector its in is beaten down, but Williams pays $1.52 dividend and at its current share price yields 6.69%. This is a better yield than many of the recent new preferred issues and is well covered. There is also some upside capital gains potential for Williams going into 2020, especially if there is a cold winter, and the downside risk to share price (imo) seems limited. Gonna start nibbling on this one.

  51. Does anyone here follow STAR??? I own STAR bonds and have owned preferreds in the past but was wondering if it’s a good time to buy STAR common. What got me thinking is their 67% ownership of SAFE.. In round numbers after SAFE’s recent successful equity raise, the market value of STAR’s holding in SAFE is over $1.2 billion and yet STAR’s total market cap is $788 mil approx? You can buy STAR at a 35% discount to the value of its SAFE holding alone and also get the rest of STAR thrown in for free???? STAR is also on credit watch positive at S&P… Sound good?

  52. Macy’s (M) sold off 11% earlier this week after Kohl’s (KSS) reported earnings and lowered guidance going forward, so it was somewhat anticlimactic when Macy’s reported their own mixed bag of earnings and lower expectations. On Friday the stock rebounded nicely +5% to close out the week. From a technical perspective this breakdown puts Macy’s share price below the 50 and 20 day moving averages which become resistance rather then support going forward. On the plus side, Macy’s had 2x normal positive volume Friday which it needs going forward to breakout of its pattern.

    We are adding to our position next week and plan to hold at least until the next ex-dividend day in December. The volatility experienced this week may provide the catalyst needed to fill the gap created back in August.

    1. CItadel, who is “we”? You and the mouse in your pocket? Or do you run some hedge fund? Or is this a post from somewhere else?

      1. Just me and my long time advisor A E Neumann here Grid…We both like Macy’s going into December.

        1. I would trust Ol Neumann more than Rida and the ‘Boys… Macys…I always watch it with interest. About 6 times the past couple years I almost pulled the trigger. Good thing I didnt because I would be down, as I would have guessed wrong. I still get the itch though.

          1. The shorts have had their hooks into Macy’s for quite a while, but we (Alfred and I) think it’s a good value around the current price. Some good news regarding consumer spending and the upcoming ex-dividend date should provide the catalyst needed for a short squeeze and a nice breakout.

            -btw I think you guys are too hard on the HDO crew…It’s the folks blindly following their investment suggestions without due diligence (IMO) who deserve the scorn. Caveat Emptor!

            1. Its definitely a volatile stock and if played right could score someone no doubt. Its not like its losing money either. But it has the trouble of being in struggling department store segment and their buildings are in many bad malls too.
              Im hard on Rida, because I have caught them in too many lies. Cant be trusted. I agree totally the buying responsibility is on the buyer. So since I believe that, I can say I respect honest money losing stock pickers than dishonest ones who have some winners. They take advantage of fact that most readers are too dumb or lazy to fact check them. Oh wait, silly me.. I am a dinosaur, the word lie is illegal and politically incorrect, so I apologize. I meant to say factual untruths. 🙂
              Though I must say I respect Preferred Stock Trader. And he is an honest well meaning person too.

  53. Fibonacci anyone?,
    I’m not a follower of this, but they (actually 1 guy who has some cred) predicts a very big down day on Tuesday.
    I find it hard to believe that one can predict that from lines and waves.
    I remember this one guy who used astrology to predict the market. Archie Crawford i think.
    I’m not buying it.
    Anyways, late monday, i’ll buy a SPY put for a day or two trade just in case.
    I want him to be wrong of course.

  54. UBER CEO buy $ 7 million of stock
    I bought 600 @ 28.50 extended hours trading
    Will unload by 10 AM or later tonight
    I hope for a .50 cent gain minimum

    Not for the faint hearted

    1. Sold all 600 for a measly gain of $134
      UBER is much higher after i sold.
      Oh well, let someone else share the ride.
      There was a big sell overnight that deflated trading early, now it’s at 28.94.
      Picking which inside buy to trade is imperative. Tech stocks are the desired types.
      Maybe this is not the forum for Insider buys.

    1. Too late, It jumped too fast out of the gate. Did not buy.
      I got the news at 9:21 but was away till 9:29

  55. Good news for those who bought into EFC-A –

    Ellington Financial Inc. Announces Common Stock Offering
    [Business Wire] [PRICED 4.2 MIL SHARES AT $18.20]
    Business WireNovember 18, 2019


    Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) (“Ellington Financial” or the “Company”) announced today that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 4,200,000 shares of common stock. The Company also expects to grant the underwriters an option for 30 days to purchase up to an additional 630,000 shares of common stock. UBS Securities LLC, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, BofA Securities, and Keefe Bruyette & Woods, Inc. are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.

    The Company expects to use the net proceeds of the offering to acquire its targeted assets. The Company may also use the net proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes.

    The shares of common stock will be offered under the Company’s existing shelf registration statement on Form S-3, which was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 3, 2019. The offering is being made only by means of a prospectus supplement and accompanying base prospectus, which will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies of the prospectus supplement and accompanying base prospectus related to the offering may be obtained from UBS Securities LLC, Attention: Prospectus Department, 1285 Avenue of the Americas, New York, New York 10019, or by telephone at (888) 827-7275; or Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Eleven Madison Avenue, 3rd floor, New York, New York 10010, Attention: Prospectus Department or by telephone at (800) 221-1037; or BofA Securities, Attention: Prospectus Department, NC1-004-03-43, 200 North College Street, 3rd floor, Charlotte, NC 28255-0001 or by email at; or Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc., 787 Seventh Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10019 (Attn:Capital Markets) or by telephone at (800) 966-1559.

  56. ATGE cfo bought $1,000,000 worth
    i paid 33.91 for 700 shs.
    Let it ride..
    I will be out within the next 20 minutes i hope

    1. I sold off all at 34.29-34.32.
      I thought it would be a bigger haul.
      A gain of .40 is still acceptable.
      Till the next inside buy..seeya

  57. Anyone play the inside buys ?
    Just bid 25.50 on tdc after hours….I don’t want to chase it too high.
    Also bought dbx @ 19.41..I know i wuz late, culda bought it at 19.29
    I usually unload at the open , i hope
    The best ones are the ones that come in after hours.
    One can hold these longer, but it’s not my practice.

    1. Just sold tdc at 26.75..I know , i know it’s over 27 now.
      But i made some nice change..
      DBX is a drag..will give it another few hours.

  58. Hmm, where is the CEF Chat page?

    Anyone have an explanation for EOT’s plunge today? It made me think dividend cut, but there is no news anywhere. Did some index rebalance?

    1. Macy’s (M) had a nice bump up on Friday +3.76 as shorts began to cover their bets. Macy’s will report earnings on thursday, and according to the perverse logic of the markets if the number is less bad then expected more shorts will cover to lock in their gains, driving the share price higher. Of course Macy’s could lay an earnings goose egg, but as outlined last week the technical set up looks favorable for a spike higher.

  59. October 28, 1929– About 90 years ago, is known as ‘Black Monday’ in financial circles.
    The US stock market had peaked the previous month, on September 3, 1929, with the Dow Jones stock index reaching a record high of 381.
    But throughout September and October, nervous investors began pulling their money out of the market.
    And over a three day period in late October (including Black Monday), the market lost more than 30% of its value.
    Ninety years later, I thought it would be prudent to look at three key insights from that historic crash, starting with:
    1) Stocks are more overvalued today than they were in 1929
    Back in 1929, the price/earnings ratio of the average company trading on the New York Stock Exchange was about 15.
    In other words, investors were willing to pay $15 per share for every $1 of the average company’s profit.
    That’s not high at all. In fact, a Price/Earnings ratio of 15 is completely in line with historic averages.
    Coca Cola’s Price/Earnings ratio back in 1929 ranged between 15 and 18. Today it’s 30… meaning that investors today are willing to pay roughly twice as much for each dollar of Coke’s annual profit.
    Coca Cola is actually quite an interesting case study.
    If we just go back a few years to 2010, Coca Cola’s annual revenue was $35 billion. By 2018 the company’s annual revenue had fallen to less than $32 billion.
    In 2010, Coca Cola generated $5.06 in profit (earnings) per share. In 2018, just $1.50.
    And Coca Cola’s total equity, i.e. the ‘net worth’ of the business, was $31 billion in 2010. By 2018, equity had fallen to $19 billion.
    So over the past eight years, Coca Cola has lost nearly 40% of its equity, sales are down, and per-share earnings have fallen by 70%.
    Clearly the company is in far worse shape today than it was eight years ago.
    Yet Coke’s share price has nearly DOUBLED in that period.
    Crazy, right?
    It’s not just Coca Cola either; the Price/Earnings ratio of the typical company today is about 50% higher than historic averages.
    (This means that the stock market would have to drop by 50% for these ratios to return to historic norms.)
    It’s clear that investors are simply willing to pay much more for every dollar of a company’s earnings and assets than just about ever before, including even right before the crash of 1929.
    2) Stocks fell by nearly 90% in 1929… and it took decades to recover.
    The ‘crash’ wasn’t isolated to Black Monday.
    From the peak in September 1929, stocks ultimately fell nearly 90% over the next three years. The Dow bottomed out in 1932 at just 42 points.
    42 is lower than where the Dow was trading in 1885… so the crash wiped out DECADES of growth. And it took until November 1954 for the Dow to finally surpass its high from 1929.
    If that were to happen today, it means the Dow would fall to just 2,700… a level it hasn’t seen since the early 1990s. And it wouldn’t return to today’s highs until the mid 2040s.
    Most people think this is completely preposterous.
    And to be fair, I think the government and central bank will do everything in their power to prevent a severe crash.
    The Federal Reserve has already announced that it will print another $60+ billion per month, which should be favorable for the stock market in the short term.
    But just because we can’t imagine something happening doesn’t mean it can’t happen. In fact it’s happening right now in Japan:
    Japan’s stock market peaked in late 1989 with its Nikkei index reaching nearly 39,000.
    Within a few years the Nikkei had lost half of its value and would ultimately fall by 80%.
    Even today, thirty years later, the Nikkei index is still 40% below its all-time high.
    There is no law that requires the stock market to go up. It can fall. And it can stay low for years… even decades.
    3) Adjusted for inflation, stocks have returned just 1.7% per year since 1929.
    It’s best to think long-term about any investment. Businesses take time to grow and expand, and patient investors who understand this tend to do well.
    But when thinking about the long-term, it’s imperative to consider the extraordinary effects of inflation.
    Every single year your money loses around 2% of its value. But over time those small bites of inflation fester into a major chunk of your investment gains.
    Consider that, even according to the federal government’s monkey math, the US dollar has lost 94% of its value since 1929.
    So even though the Dow is more than 70x higher than it was in mid-1929, when you consider the effects of inflation, stocks are only about 5x higher over the past 90 years.
    That works out to be an average annualized return of just 1.7%.
    Even over the past 20 years– if you go back to late 1999, the stock market has only returned about 2.2% per year when adjusted for inflation.
    Think about all the risks and wild market swings that investors have had to deal with over the past 20 years– all for a measly 2.2%.
    It’s interesting to note that, when adjusted for inflation, GOLD has outperformed stocks over the long run.
    When adjusted for inflation, gold has averaged a 1.8% return since 1929 (slightly higher than stocks), and a 6.7% return since 1999– more than 3x as much as stocks.
    But unlike stocks, people who own gold haven’t had to put up with the same risks. No shady brokers. No WeWork bullshit. No Enron scandal.
    They earned 3x more than the stock market– with the added benefit of being able to hold their investment right in their own hands.
    Please do your own deep due diligence before investing and NEVER follow someone blindly just because they are a good and convincing writer..l
    To your freedom,

    1. Thanks for that chilling reminder, I’m staying in bed thank you.
      I think i can stop the bull market in one week, all i have to do is to invest 100k in the S&P index. Once i’m in the market, it’s guaranteed to drop.
      It may take a major European bank to shutter its doors to get me out of the market.
      Following blindly, Well, guilty as charged.
      When me and the missus are on 39th street and Broadway sipping our coffees and we see people from uptown start running down our street in drips and drabs and then huge crowds running wildly past us, Do we stop and think what’s happening ? or do we run with them thinking they know better?
      It’s hard to run against the crowd. I did that once in 2009 when i bought Mer-k and actually had the print low of $7 or $9 and change. I believed that after Lehman, the treasury would not allow ML to go under. What a roller coaster ride.
      I made my most of my money in Real Estate buying low and selling at the next top or keeping the rental properties. RE seemed to tank 2-4 years after a market crash and it stayed low for 3 years. That gave me plenty of time to cherry pick. My last buys were in 2010-2013. In RE no one manipulates the value from one day to another and you can’t just sell when you are panicky. I played with gold for awhile..last purchases were at 1,200.
      Sorry for the rant.

  60. Macy’s (M) had a nice break out today, up 5.4% to 16.71 on higher volume. The two key technical parameters from my perspective will be the 20 day moving average crossing above the 50 day, (should happen this week) and the down gap from mid-August that getting filled when the share price reaches 18.86. Also, the 200dma sits two full points above the gap fill, at 20.87… so its a nice technical set up going into the start of the holiday season.

  61. LTS – Ladenburg looking to sell itself and hired an advisor to do so.. I wonder what what a sale would mean for the baby bonds and preferred?

    1. 2whiteroses, On LTS, I have not verified but the following is from Richard LeJune on the SA HDO Chat: “No LTS.PA would Not be hurt if LTS goes private. LTS.PA has conversion rights to put shares at par subject to a share cap of 25 LTS shares. So unless LTS was taken private for less than $1 per share (which isn’t going to happen) , there is no danger to preferreds. “

      1. TNT – To be honest, I wasn’t thinking negatively should LTS get bought out… It’s such a dicey one as it is, I was wondering outloud whether or not there was a requirement for the notes to be assumed by a purchaser. Practically anyone would be a credit positive if they had to assume the outstanding.

  62. If you ever wanted to own Amazon (AMZN) shares tomorrow morning should provide a decent entry point, as the company reported earnings this afternoon that are being interpreted as a miss. After hours share price is off ~7% to 1655.

    1. AMZN feeling the pain in after hours, now down to about $1,648.

      I put in a lowball bid for a couple shares tomorrow opening, in the hope that some panic dumping ensures.

    2. If you bought AMZN at the open this morning …congrats… you’re probably feeling pretty good right now as shares are trading about 60 points higher. Looks like 1700 is a technical support level, although that may get tested again the afternoon if traders fade the rebound.

  63. My Macy’s investment is currently flat after being up almost 10% and am looking to add some more shares today. It remains to be seen whether Santa delivers a stocking full of sweets or a lump of coal on this one.

  64. MO Altria Group – Rumoured merger with PM as JUUL continues to get hammered from regulators and medical rumours.

    FDX Fedex – Previous earnings call hammered stock. Will the sell off continue or is it overdone.

    UNH / MRK / MDT – Best of the beaten healthcare stocks.

  65. AAPL trading flat on lower volume today, after launching some new products. This not a positive signal for the company, although these launch events have seen diminished effect on stock price over the years.

    Meanwhile Macy’s (among other retailers) continues its post-Labor Day run…trading up 4% today. Macy’s goes ex-dividend on Thursday which may create a buying opportunity.

    Both stocks are consumer driven, but at these price levels Macy’s is more of a value bet and Apple is more of a momentum play.

    1. There’s a big rotation going on right now… Value is making a push while Momentum is getting hammered. That’s a major reversal and it’s three straight days. HUGE if it sticks. That probably signals that Q4 may get ugly again. JMO

      1. Agreed, somebody is rotating something. Probably just rebalancing ahead of the slow October period / window dressing the 3rd quarter. My biggest gainers of over 150% like V and MA are not having a good few days, but I’m not worried. I’m taking these 2 to the grave. Meanwhile. T is crushing 52 week highs and some ute’s are also doing very, very well like DUK. I love playing both sides of the fence.

  66. A few comments: Income related: For those who are talking equities, need to hone up, looking to build in a possible new skill set and are good self-directed students. This is actually no more difficult than understanding the preferred details. Hope it is useful to some!
    1) Take a look at selling calls on something you hold? I have held SIL and published this a few months ago as being cheap. It was a good bet. I’m out now. Did not sell calls at that time.
    I looked at selling calls on a new silver or gold holding and a good candidate is CDE. I learned to appreciate the commodity managers in the global mining space as the toughest bunch of manager hombres around. These companies have proven they can manage thru all cycles. IE: RIO just paid out a special dividend and all their balance sheets are wrung OUT. I am usually 6 – 12 months early, but my planning would be to collect the divys and option premia while waiting. (etf: PICK or GUNR if you want some ag in there)
    Regarding selling call options: If they get assigned, it can guarantees a profit and you can re-enter if you choose or roll up and out of the money along the way. I think selling calls is the BEST way to SELL stock.
    So my example: look at a holding some CDE now ? , buy at $5.40 , sell options at $6 to Sept 20 at $.10. Receive 1.85% on investment cash up front now. If called at $6 on Sept 20th with no roll out = 12.9% or 70 cents/ $5.40 per share. Boom: On $10,000 = $1,290 and out of the position in fifteen market days. If not called 1.85% in fifteen trading days and cost basis down to $5.30.
    Skill Set:
    Sell options again? (Do this in a tax sheltered account, all short term, ordinary income)…
    roll or stay naked?
    Roll up and further out of the money if the stocks begin to wave up? Don’t forget you CAN roll if prices start to go up (calendar call spread, standard electronic entry on all brokerage sites) not just on expiration date. Best to roll before option goes in the money and the volatility is beginning to price up calls further out.
    PS: You keep the divy if xdiv date occurs before an in the money call assignment may be made on you.

    That’s really about it. No more detailed than preferreds, calls, floats, resets, etc.
    It is a safe, conservative and prudent approach to the market of equity if you ARE going to hold equity anyway.
    Sideways and down markets are best for call option strategies. Commissions apply too.
    Usually have to request options trading on your account…stick to ‘covered calls’ only!
    2) Big oilys look like their 60% retracement since Xmas has happened, but is lost in the news morass. Some decent spasms since then, someone is accumulating? I like the yields and their balance sheets can ride a LONG time. Still hold IPPLF and FRHLF in the Land of the Grandmother, monthlies and hardy as a cabbage plant. Bot some RDS.b and BP and looking to just watch now…maybe sell some covered calls! All in Roth about 8% of portfolio.
    “As long as we are here the Story is not over. We can change the entire thing.”
    Happy Investing

  67. I bought a small amount of FL (foot locker) yesterday. >4% dividend with only a .32 payout ratio.

    Stock is down 45% from recent highs on China and recession fears. Could be a value trap.

    1. August has traditionally been a good time to invest in retailers Jacob, and you’re getting into FL at a reasonable price close to a major support line at 32.91, which is the 200 month moving average. There may be a better entry point if the market melts down again, but technically it looks good.

              1. Good job Jacob. Gutsy call on that one. Maybe you should consider giving TGT a shot going into next quarter’s earnings. What a year they’ve had. Going from ~65 to just cracking 109.00/share.

                1. TGT valuation seems full right now with a PE at 18.

                  I was considering using my M proceeds to buy TLRD (tailored brands) but it seemed too risky… glad I didn’t! They announced div suspension today and stock is down 25%.

  68. Interesting to see JNJ up on lower than expected judgement in OK. I have been hesitant to consider drug stocks between the liability risk and political ramifications. MMM is interesting at this level, but with their lowered outlook and continuation of trade war, they may have a bit further to fall.
    Any thoughts?

    1. furcal, I get my exposure to the drug industry through a fund, HQH, which gives me diversification and a nice yield. Between the talcum powder and opioid lawsuits, things could get dicey with some individual firms, especially JNJ.
      I’m not smart enough to know when is the bottom on any issue so if I like it, I’ll buy a small position (1% or less of my stock portfolio) and watch to see if I should add over time or admit I made a mistake and get out. A full position in my stock account is 2 to 3%. This keeps the land mines (unanticipated blunders) from being fatal.

      1. JV, A few weeks ago I looked at the 4 main healthcare cef’s THQ THW HQL HQH and went with THQ since it pays monthly (as does THW vs quarterly for HQL and HQH) and THQ had a very nice cushion with nearly $2 in UNII. I have been trying to avoid cefs with negative UNII.

        Further discussion on healthcare cefs welcome in case I am missing something obvious, per usual.

    2. Hi Furcal,

      I would be interested in MMM at 125 – that would give them a P/E of about 15. Speaking of litigation, I’ve seen commercials about ‘defective’ 3M military earplugs.

      1. Jacob, thanks, I know MMM had some environmental litigation risk, was unaware of the airplug issue. I have starter position from 165 but am not averaging down at this point.

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