Common Stock Chat

This page is set up for those that want to chat about various common stocks.

There are no rules–other than the usual–no politics.

19 thoughts on “Common Stock Chat”

  1. AAPL trading flat on lower volume today, after launching some new products. This not a positive signal for the company, although these launch events have seen diminished effect on stock price over the years.

    Meanwhile Macy’s (among other retailers) continues its post-Labor Day run…trading up 4% today. Macy’s goes ex-dividend on Thursday which may create a buying opportunity.

    Both stocks are consumer driven, but at these price levels Macy’s is more of a value bet and Apple is more of a momentum play.

    1. There’s a big rotation going on right now… Value is making a push while Momentum is getting hammered. That’s a major reversal and it’s three straight days. HUGE if it sticks. That probably signals that Q4 may get ugly again. JMO

      1. Agreed, somebody is rotating something. Probably just rebalancing ahead of the slow October period / window dressing the 3rd quarter. My biggest gainers of over 150% like V and MA are not having a good few days, but I’m not worried. I’m taking these 2 to the grave. Meanwhile. T is crushing 52 week highs and some ute’s are also doing very, very well like DUK. I love playing both sides of the fence.

  2. A few comments: Income related: For those who are talking equities, need to hone up, looking to build in a possible new skill set and are good self-directed students. This is actually no more difficult than understanding the preferred details. Hope it is useful to some!
    1) Take a look at selling calls on something you hold? I have held SIL and published this a few months ago as being cheap. It was a good bet. I’m out now. Did not sell calls at that time.
    I looked at selling calls on a new silver or gold holding and a good candidate is CDE. I learned to appreciate the commodity managers in the global mining space as the toughest bunch of manager hombres around. These companies have proven they can manage thru all cycles. IE: RIO just paid out a special dividend and all their balance sheets are wrung OUT. I am usually 6 – 12 months early, but my planning would be to collect the divys and option premia while waiting. (etf: PICK or GUNR if you want some ag in there)
    Regarding selling call options: If they get assigned, it can guarantees a profit and you can re-enter if you choose or roll up and out of the money along the way. I think selling calls is the BEST way to SELL stock.
    So my example: look at a holding some CDE now ? , buy at $5.40 , sell options at $6 to Sept 20 at $.10. Receive 1.85% on investment cash up front now. If called at $6 on Sept 20th with no roll out = 12.9% or 70 cents/ $5.40 per share. Boom: On $10,000 = $1,290 and out of the position in fifteen market days. If not called 1.85% in fifteen trading days and cost basis down to $5.30.
    Skill Set:
    Sell options again? (Do this in a tax sheltered account, all short term, ordinary income)…
    roll or stay naked?
    Roll up and further out of the money if the stocks begin to wave up? Don’t forget you CAN roll if prices start to go up (calendar call spread, standard electronic entry on all brokerage sites) not just on expiration date. Best to roll before option goes in the money and the volatility is beginning to price up calls further out.
    PS: You keep the divy if xdiv date occurs before an in the money call assignment may be made on you.

    That’s really about it. No more detailed than preferreds, calls, floats, resets, etc.
    It is a safe, conservative and prudent approach to the market of equity if you ARE going to hold equity anyway.
    Sideways and down markets are best for call option strategies. Commissions apply too.
    Usually have to request options trading on your account…stick to ‘covered calls’ only!
    2) Big oilys look like their 60% retracement since Xmas has happened, but is lost in the news morass. Some decent spasms since then, someone is accumulating? I like the yields and their balance sheets can ride a LONG time. Still hold IPPLF and FRHLF in the Land of the Grandmother, monthlies and hardy as a cabbage plant. Bot some RDS.b and BP and looking to just watch now…maybe sell some covered calls! All in Roth about 8% of portfolio.
    “As long as we are here the Story is not over. We can change the entire thing.”
    Happy Investing

  3. I bought a small amount of FL (foot locker) yesterday. >4% dividend with only a .32 payout ratio.

    Stock is down 45% from recent highs on China and recession fears. Could be a value trap.

    1. August has traditionally been a good time to invest in retailers Jacob, and you’re getting into FL at a reasonable price close to a major support line at 32.91, which is the 200 month moving average. There may be a better entry point if the market melts down again, but technically it looks good.

              1. Good job Jacob. Gutsy call on that one. Maybe you should consider giving TGT a shot going into next quarter’s earnings. What a year they’ve had. Going from ~65 to just cracking 109.00/share.

                1. TGT valuation seems full right now with a PE at 18.

                  I was considering using my M proceeds to buy TLRD (tailored brands) but it seemed too risky… glad I didn’t! They announced div suspension today and stock is down 25%.

  4. Interesting to see JNJ up on lower than expected judgement in OK. I have been hesitant to consider drug stocks between the liability risk and political ramifications. MMM is interesting at this level, but with their lowered outlook and continuation of trade war, they may have a bit further to fall.
    Any thoughts?

    1. furcal, I get my exposure to the drug industry through a fund, HQH, which gives me diversification and a nice yield. Between the talcum powder and opioid lawsuits, things could get dicey with some individual firms, especially JNJ.
      I’m not smart enough to know when is the bottom on any issue so if I like it, I’ll buy a small position (1% or less of my stock portfolio) and watch to see if I should add over time or admit I made a mistake and get out. A full position in my stock account is 2 to 3%. This keeps the land mines (unanticipated blunders) from being fatal.

      1. JV, A few weeks ago I looked at the 4 main healthcare cef’s THQ THW HQL HQH and went with THQ since it pays monthly (as does THW vs quarterly for HQL and HQH) and THQ had a very nice cushion with nearly $2 in UNII. I have been trying to avoid cefs with negative UNII.

        Further discussion on healthcare cefs welcome in case I am missing something obvious, per usual.

    2. Hi Furcal,

      I would be interested in MMM at 125 – that would give them a P/E of about 15. Speaking of litigation, I’ve seen commercials about ‘defective’ 3M military earplugs.

      1. Jacob, thanks, I know MMM had some environmental litigation risk, was unaware of the airplug issue. I have starter position from 165 but am not averaging down at this point.

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