Common Stock Chat

This page is set up for those that want to chat about various common stocks.

There are no rules–other than the usual–no politics.

121 thoughts on “Common Stock Chat”

  1. This weekend I spoke with the Supply Chain Directors for two large publicly traded firms. One is a spice firm and the other a construction equipment firm.

    I asked about the virus impact and their responses. Both have significant plants and distribution in China. One also has two plants in Italy. Both are reliant upon India.

    My question concerned the Communist Party in China and its likelihood of “taking over” their plants if the economy of China deteriorates. Both expressed hesitancy to criticize China publicly. But, both also said the Chinese Govt. is inside their plants and directing any operations/exports.

    My question concerns the large cap stocks that are reliant upon China. I would appreciate thoughts from this board on the risk for those large cap stocks.

    I did NOT speak with Apple but it greatly concerns me. As far as I know, Apple cannot operate without its Chinese supply chain. That seems to make Apple more of a risk.

    I am focusing on large cap stocks that I believe in the next five years can recover nicely.

    Appreciate any thoughts here.

    1. Keep your eye on Whirlpool, lot of plants in US but idling some due to demand. It has already hit what I would of thought was a good price range (mid 70’s ) From when I was looking at it a couple weeks ago and talking to a nephew in law. If you want to buy in I would nibble as Tim has said. Personally, Now that I have seen this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to low 50’s over the next couple months as we see how much damage has been done to the economy.

    2. We are simply staring into an abyse right now as estimates are just being revised down on a huge GDP drop. I own or highly desire to own the following companies but waiting for Q2 results to roll in.

      Financial Services Companies:
      CME Group (CME)
      Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE)
      The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
      Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)
      Paychex (PayX) / Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

      5G Picks
      Crown Castle International Corp (CCI)
      Bell Canada (BCE)
      Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

      Consumer Related:
      Discovery Financial Services (DFS)
      Unilever (UN)
      Lowe’s (LOW)
      Dollarama Inc (DOL.TO)

      Industrials:
      General Dynamics (GD)
      Honeywell (HON)
      Rockwell (ROK)

  2. Steve A and All, appreciate your USB insight, am looking at the preferred. Wondering about commons of the 5 major Canadian banks? I read and super respect the Canadian prfrd mavens on III, but find it’s too complex for my feeble brain (friends sometimes call me D minus), so interested in the commons. Made money with all of them over the past few years and closed out last holdings (BNS in mid-50s) six or so weeks ago, and now I see they’re yielding 6-8 percent again. Tempting. They bounced a bit today. I’m all in on 3 of 5 portfolios, but looking for an alternative to fixed income for dry powder in the other 2. Appreciate any insights. D

    1. Not a big 5 Canadian bank – CWB Canadian Western Bank. Price has not recovered over concerns of debt exposure to oil and gas industry.

      Missed the boat on td/ry. Only buy if yield is above 5%.

  3. Purchased 25% position in DTE common this morning at $82 which is approximately 40% below it’s 52 week high of $135.67.

    Have order in for another 25% at $78. At a price of $80 per share, the yield on the common would be 5%

  4. Consider myself very fortunate this morning, I brought a 50% position in US Bancorp common stock at $30.05. At that price, the current yield is 5.6%. This is the 7th largest bank in the US and Buffet’s 7th largest holding. Naturally, it has been stress tested. This bank does not have a lot of overseas exposure.

    $30 per share is below its 2012 stock price. The price in the financial crisis was around $15 per share.

    At $30.05, this is a more than 50% drop from its 52 weeks high of $61.11.

    At this point, I am looking at common stock buys. After searching all weekend, this is the only one I found that I wanted to invest in.

    1. Sorry.

      This is the 9th largest buffet holding in terms of $$ invested according to CNBC Buffet portfolio tracker.

      This is the 5th largest bank in the US

  5. Airlines have been hit hard. It will probably last for some weeks, probably months. I believe they’re asking for gov’t funding. But when this virus problem subsides, surely airlines will recover in a significant way, won’t they?

    Even with the huge gains on Friday (3/13), American is still down over 50% since January 1. United down over 57%. Spirit is worse, down 62%. Southwest got hit the least, down 23%. The ETF for airlines, JETS, is down something like 43% for the year.

    I wouldn’t buy a cruise line for quite a while, but the airlines would seem to have a more significant and quicker recovery likelihood. Maybe a nibble here and there until it looks like a turnaround is in site…

    1. Lower energy prices normally provide a tailwind to earnings for the airlines also, but this market is anything but normal.

  6. I’m scaling into MMM below $150 on the theory it had the better part of its correction before the latest general downturn. So far it has pretty good relative strength. If I see some good capitulation, I’ll write put strikes at $135 or below.

    Also looking at PSX and RY the same way, but I haven’t started buying any yet.

    I already wrote puts on EPD (too early), but I’ll be OK being assigned.

    My favorite royalty trusts (MSB, SBR, DMLP) are almost into buy range, though I’d only add to MSB.

  7. PPL is off almost 3% today after hardly moving on Monday and the first half of Tuesday. The only news I can see is the CEO is stepping down and a new CEO was named. Seems like an over reaction to what looks like an orderly rotation in the C-suite. With an ex-dividend date approaching (3/9)…this may be a trading opportunity. PPL currently yields 4.8%.

  8. XOM has been beat down mercilessly. Adding a starter position here along with RDS.B. Two excellent balance sheets.

        1. Alpha, Im not feeling it yet. The XOM premium is not there anymore. There isnt any reason why it cant join some of the other Integrated Oils with a 7% divi with risk of a cut.

          1. It might be better to value XOM by their cash flow statement rather than by the balance sheet.

            If you do that it might be harder to convince yourself that the stock is a bargain at 54.

            Not sure what multiple of cash flow xom would deserve so I can’t say

  9. Anyone on here follow the solar industry? SunPower (SPWR) specifically. I’m just trying to get a feel for the upcoming spinoff of the manufacturing arm to Maxeon. Current shareholders will become shareholders in both companies after the spinoff. I own about 300 shares. Thinking of selling before the spinoff. I don’t know anything about Maxeon yet – I do plan to do a little research, but just thought I’d see what the sentiment on here was before making any rash decisions… TIA

    1. Mark,
      I am not directly involved in the Solar business although a project estimator for Tesla Solar reached out to our company a couple days ago and I had a discussion with him about supplying to them.
      The state of California has mandated all new homes be built with solar. But I don’t believe that is where the money is at. In talking to people in the business its in the large scale mega projects. Even then these go from project to project and if a company doesn’t have multiple projects in the pipeline the revenue streams can dry up. That has been the problem with residential solar, so much money has to be spent on marketing, call centers, sales and installation just to land a job that the margins are thin. Kind of like the Calif gold rush, the only people making the money were the ones selling the picks and shovels to the miners.

      1. Hi Charles,
        Thanks for your thoughts. While I agree that commercial / utility scale solar is where the real money is, it is interesting to note that SunPower actually has far better margins in residential solar. While I find that encouraging, especially in light of the fact that California is going to be a big driver in residential solar, my question was really more pointed towards the separation of it’s manufacturing business and its sales side business.

        It looks to be a roughly 70/30 split with the majority of shares staying with SunPower. I’m overall bullish on solar, so maybe I’ll just hang on and see what plays out. I also have small positions in First Solar (FSLR), Terraform Power(TERP), Pattern Energy Group (PEGI), and Brookfield Renewable (BEP)

  10. BANX – Anyone follow this company? Shareholders are being asked to vote for “Approval of a new management agreement (the “New Investment Advisory Agreement”) between the Company and StoneCastle-ArrowMark Asset Management, LLC (“StoneCastle-ArrowMark”), a newly-formed investment adviser that is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ArrowMark Colorado Holdings, LLC (“ArrowMark Partners”), which would replace the current management agreement between the Company and StoneCastle Asset Management LLC…” It looks like in the details this change essentially makes Josh Seigel disappear in a continuing role of importance, though he theoretically will continue in some titular capacity. IMHO, Seigel’s the reason to be BANX. I have no feel for ArrowMark but my inclination is to oppose this change by voting NO. Anyone else in this and have an opinion? It’s been a nice steady performer over the 2 1/2 years I’ve owned it…

    1. 2wroses

      I visited with the company about two years ago. What you have to understand are the following. Banx holds mainly proffered issues from local and regional banks. Mostly because the banks will not sell equity. The holdings in the fund are only the tip of the iceberg as Josh has a private firm with major assets.In the past I did not buy Banx as I did not see upside and the yield did not excite me. Today that is less true given the new environment.
      When I read the news release it seemed clear that Josh was giving up control of banx. To me this was strange unless he had health or other issues which meant that he could not actively manage things. I’m afraid I don’t know any more and know nothing about the buyer. I too would be against the sale unless there is something that we do not know. The cfo and the ir people were clear and helpful and overall I’ve had a good impression of the firm. If you learn more, would like to know. tia sc

      1. Thanks for your input, sc…. I decided just to not vote since there was not enough compelling info imho on ArrowMark to think getting a 10 cent payout plus promises of increased dividends was compelling enough to overcome Seigel pending departure as a result of this change should it pass… I discovered that not voting is the same as voting no so I guess I’ll just continue to be an abstainer. Confirming Seigel’s exit from BANX occurs for all practical purposes should this go through only reconfirms I’d vote NO anyway…. I was surprised to see he’s only 48 yrs old..

        1. 2wroawa-
          A I suggested above, we need more information on why he left. If he sold control of the management company then there must be a reason because his private company located at the same office- has a lot of money under management. For this reason, I thought perhaps it related to health issues but I have no insight.The original announcement came as a total surprise. sc

  11. Re-posting a comment/question from last night about energy complex equities, originally directed to Citadel West, but interested in opinions and insight from all III readers:
    Greetings, CW, apropos your interest in WMB, wondering how your take on energy names has evolved since New Year’s? I see SLB closed back under 34 again today, yield heading back toward 6 percent. I played it three times last year from low to high 30s, last time up over 40, and picking up several dividends along the way. Looking at opening a small position again, especially if it weakens further in next week or so — it goes ex-div in a couple of weeks. I like these volatility driven short term (and small quantity) plays to juice yield. I’ve also stumbled, entered positions in ET recently that are under water, but holding for yield and ready to leg in further if it drops significantly. Just curious what you may be thinking. Thanks and best wishes.

    1. Good morning D…I was on a holiday and missed your original comments here regarding WMB and the other energy names. While I generally think that income investors need to hold dividend paying common shares as part of an overall strategy, I have been disappointed by my picks in the energy sector so far this quarter.

      WMB has mostly been a loser since I first started to nibble at it in December, and I have since cut my position to a bare minimum. I also have some shares of OXY, which is still in the green but have lost much of their earlier gains. I ditched my shares in BP when they started to turn red, and never pulled the trigger on RDS/B.

      I may circle around and try to play the bounce in some of these names, but my general feeling is that the energy sector is still bottoming and the risk of capital loss there is still significant. The better way to get some dividend exposure to energy sector may be to just own XLE.

  12. Corrections are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get…lol. I still believe we have one more wave lower in Spx below 3200. That should be a great buy opportunity. ATB

  13. Amazon (AMZN) pushing above its 200dma and making a break topside this morning +3% on 2X volume. Will be interesting to see if it can hold the gains or fall back down again.

  14. SAVA or FDX anyone?
    Seems insiders bought at both of these.
    Sava is a low priced stock (Red Flag) but i may play with just 700 shs bought at 2.65. I have no idea where it will trade by 9:45
    FDX is a giant shipping company and i will buy 100 shs only at 148.90
    I’m not expecting big moves at all..looking for $250 minimum gain.

  15. This is a much quieter page than sandbox, but my question is probably more closely related to common stocks…. Hope to get a few replies.

    Anyway, was wondering if anyone here has experience with FastGraphs?

    As I am still dabbling in common shares, this seems a good way to get a quick picture of a company. If nothing else, a good starting point for further DD. At $480 for an annual subscription though, I’m wondering if other’s see value in it. Are there other products where I can get same / similar info for less or free? Do the Level II platforms on the brokerage sites show anything similar? These FastGraphs are pretty easy for me to understand.

  16. I’m more hopeful about our investment in The Williams Companies (WMB), which has been rising on above average positive volume for the past two weeks…even shrugging off the usual dip in share price associated with going ex-dividend. WMB is a large domestic natural gas infrastructure company which is 90% owned by institutions. We’re looking to capture a 10-15% capital gain in the next four months, along with a couple of dividend payments. The Williams Companies’ most recent presentation where they update their strategy and guidance is linked below.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4312216-williams-companies-wmb-presents-wells-fargo-securities-midstream-and-utility-symposium

    1. Greetings, CW, apropos your interest in WMB, wondering how your take on energy names has evolved since New Year’s? I see SLB closed back under 34 again today, yield heading back toward 6 percent. I played it three times last year from low to high 30s, last time up over 40, and picking up several dividends along the way. Looking at opening a small position again, especially if it weakens further in next week or so — it goes ex-div in a couple of weeks. I like these volatility driven short term (and small quantity) plays to juice yield. I’ve also stumbled, entered positions in ET recently that are under water, but holding for yield and ready to leg in further if it drops significantly. Just curious what you may be thinking. Thanks and best wishes.

  17. We finally rang the register on Macys (M) yesterday, after missing a chance to do so last week. When I started the position in mid-August, my expectations were to capture a 20%+ capital gain plus a couple of dividend payments, and while the stock did run up over 12% a couple of times, it always fell back down again shortly after. Our trade did generate a roughly 6% gain plus two dividend payments, but that is not a sufficient reward (imo) for the risk of a four month hold.

    1. One of my rules is to avoid retail. Too much like a game of musical chairs. Too many participants for all to prosper and the winner/loser classification seems to get scrambled every quarter. Way too much work to follow trends. Plus the yields are generally not enticing.

      1. You’re right Vinny…its easy to get burned by individual retail names. A lot depends on your tolerance for risk and like you said how much time you spend following trends.

  18. Sentiment is extremely frothy at the moment and Spx at new highs without a Vix at new lows. I expect a correction sometime in Q1 or Q2. Be careful out there. ATB.

    1. I suspect if / when fed stops repo program that will be a catalyst to start a correction. 3190 needs to be broken to confirm at this point.

  19. I forgot to check my i-phone and didn’t respond to a text: PLCE Insider Buy at 9:05 AM.
    It would have only made sense buying pre mkt. By 9:36 AM it’s move was over.
    You snooze–You Lose.

  20. For anyone on III who may be holding or following it, PPL closed up c. 6% today, highest close since late 2017. I don’t see any specific news, wondering if anyone has an insight In to what‘s going on? Thanks

    1. D, Seems to be related to the blowout British vote and a surety of Brexit actually happening. It’s amazing when people get out of the way so that choking regulations and stupidity can be eradicated and free markets are let loose to do their thing. Sounds like another recent historical event around our neck of the woods.

    2. D, The regulators were about to put the choke hold on allowable equity rate of return for them during next approval cycle which is 2021 or 2022. The assumption is basically what A4I is suggesting. That the powers that be may be more lenient on utes in their rates of return. The Labour party was still yakking about nationalizing them. That chatter will be gone for now.

    3. I took some profits in PPL on Friday afternoon. When someone offers a years worth of dividend income in a single day I usually take it.

    4. D, sorry for the late reply. Just catching up on this tread. PPL generates a large amount of it’s revenue from UK operations and concern over brexit, etc have kept pressure on the PPL shares. Boris Johnson’s impressive re-election has caused companies like PPL, SSE and others to get a significant boost.

  21. SAGE CEO and other officers bought $2 Million of their plummeting stock at 64.20.
    I bought at too high a price a few minutes ago at 64.62
    Its at 64.26 bid now
    Anyways, I hope after a 80 point drop that this is a FLU shot in the arm.

    10 minutes to countdown

    1. Thank You Insider Cow.
      I kept some shares just in case Sage rebounds 10 or more points.
      The bad news is my Medicare part B will go up in 2021 as a result of gains and other income in 2019.

    2. Newman – I don’t normally watch recommendations on the Stock page, but just happened to notice your timing on SAGE….Great call!!!! Congrats…. You bot it too high at 64.62???? Pssssshaw…….

      1. 2WR, The credit goes to my younger brother who filters the best bets.
        He was pumped up and bought 1200 shs and i did 750 shs.
        We had a great day. Normally i make $200-700 on these buys, but this one was a doozy.
        I overslept on a few issues and missed those.
        But , i’ll post new ones as they come.
        The Inside Buys only work in a Bull Market .

  22. I have a generalized question about trade executions, but I’ll use a trade this morning on RILYL as an example (even though it’s not a stock). This morning there were 2 trades executed for 1000 shares and 400 shares at 25.23 at 9:44.33 AM. Simultaneously, 1000 shares and 400 shares also show up as being traded at 25.2375. Can anyone explain why this frequently happens? I was the buyer of the 400 lot at 25.23. Was the execution of 400 at 25.2375 and sale to me at 25.23 an example of my broker being willing to execute on my behalf while eating .0075? Certainly these were related trades and not coincidental. Anyone have an explanation?

  23. Citadel West, Back in the day, I eagerly waited for Saturdays when Barron’s would come to the newsstand.
    It was a huge paper with immense data . I would read the musings of Abelson and company. Many guests were asked for their outlook. But, Year after year of S&P growth did not deter Barron’s from their bearish outlook. Five years on, I realized this relationship was not helping me understand the market and make money.
    I have not touched a Barron’s in 25 years and i’m better off for it.
    So when i said the bad news was their write up, i felt they were jinxing the stock.

    1. IMHO, Barrons has gone way down hill since the Abelson days.. To me, reading what’s available today thanks to outline.com, it’s become not much more than a dumbed down weekly tout sheet.

      1. I agree. I sold out my final shares of expe at 110.69.
        I erased the symbol from my Fido watch list as well.
        That gain should pay for the office crews lunch this week and the feral cats food in the back yard.

        Cash me outside y’all

    2. I still enjoy reading Barrons on Saturday morning occasionally, but I totally understand your sentiment. My personal jinx is that guy Jim Kramer on TV…

      1. CW, My brother emailed Kramer about some bad picks and got a nasty e-mail from Kray Kray.
        I see where you play Macys stock. I admit i’m intrigued, but I’m too busy working, no SLAVING for my daughters fledgling business to watch the stock markets up and downs.
        I used to play Teva, but it ran away from me after $7.50…
        I’ll watch out for your comments though.

        1. Thats funny Cramer got his dandruff up on his bald palate over a critical email from a bad pick. Cramer doesnt say it often enough, but he does consistently say index funds are largely the way to go investing in stocks.
          But, there would be no show if all Cramer ever said was invest in low cost index funds though.

  24. Insider buy at EXPE.. I picked up 150 shs at 108.79 just now (5:30)PM
    First inside buy last week was at 98
    The CEO and CFO were booted, usually that’s bad news.
    But what the hay.
    Only bad news is Barron’s likes it in a write up on 12-6
    This inside buy was at 108.33, $ 2.5 Mill by VP
    Another risk is holding it overnight. One never knows what’s going to impact us tomorrow AM

    1. “Only bad news is Barron’s likes it in a write up on 12-6”

      Ok, that’s pretty funny…

  25. In a week that saw the general markets rise, Macys (M) did not perform well at all, and remains stuck below its 20 day and 50 day moving averages. Macys goes ex-dividend on Thurs 12/12 paying 38 cents per share, so any moves up this week are likely going to be followed by a move down on Friday. After holding Macys since mid-August and being up over 10% at a couple of points in time, we currently only have a slight gain when you add in a couple of dividend payments. Perhaps more patience is needed, but opportunity costs are starting to weigh on this investment. We may be sellers on the open Friday.

  26. Ready Capital to join the the S&P Small Cap 600 – At opening this puts RCA in the money as a convertible

    NEW YORK, Dec. 2, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — S&P Dow Jones Indices will make the following changes to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600:

    S&P MidCap 400 constituent Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASD: ODFL) will replace SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Cabot Microelectronics Corp. (NASD: CCMP) will replace Old Dominion Freight Line in the S&P MidCap 400, and Ready Capital Corp. (NYSE: RC) will replace Cabot Microelectronics in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the open of trading on Monday,

  27. Another stock which has come across our radar screens recently is major US oil and gas pipeline provider The Williams Companies (WMB). Williams stock has not had a great year and the sector its in is beaten down, but Williams pays $1.52 dividend and at its current share price yields 6.69%. This is a better yield than many of the recent new preferred issues and is well covered. There is also some upside capital gains potential for Williams going into 2020, especially if there is a cold winter, and the downside risk to share price (imo) seems limited. Gonna start nibbling on this one.

  28. Does anyone here follow STAR??? I own STAR bonds and have owned preferreds in the past but was wondering if it’s a good time to buy STAR common. What got me thinking is their 67% ownership of SAFE.. In round numbers after SAFE’s recent successful equity raise, the market value of STAR’s holding in SAFE is over $1.2 billion and yet STAR’s total market cap is $788 mil approx? You can buy STAR at a 35% discount to the value of its SAFE holding alone and also get the rest of STAR thrown in for free???? STAR is also on credit watch positive at S&P… Sound good?

  29. Macy’s (M) sold off 11% earlier this week after Kohl’s (KSS) reported earnings and lowered guidance going forward, so it was somewhat anticlimactic when Macy’s reported their own mixed bag of earnings and lower expectations. On Friday the stock rebounded nicely +5% to close out the week. From a technical perspective this breakdown puts Macy’s share price below the 50 and 20 day moving averages which become resistance rather then support going forward. On the plus side, Macy’s had 2x normal positive volume Friday which it needs going forward to breakout of its pattern.

    We are adding to our position next week and plan to hold at least until the next ex-dividend day in December. The volatility experienced this week may provide the catalyst needed to fill the gap created back in August.

    1. CItadel, who is “we”? You and the mouse in your pocket? Or do you run some hedge fund? Or is this a post from somewhere else?

      1. Just me and my long time advisor A E Neumann here Grid…We both like Macy’s going into December.

        1. I would trust Ol Neumann more than Rida and the ‘Boys… Macys…I always watch it with interest. About 6 times the past couple years I almost pulled the trigger. Good thing I didnt because I would be down, as I would have guessed wrong. I still get the itch though.

          1. The shorts have had their hooks into Macy’s for quite a while, but we (Alfred and I) think it’s a good value around the current price. Some good news regarding consumer spending and the upcoming ex-dividend date should provide the catalyst needed for a short squeeze and a nice breakout.

            -btw I think you guys are too hard on the HDO crew…It’s the folks blindly following their investment suggestions without due diligence (IMO) who deserve the scorn. Caveat Emptor!

            1. Its definitely a volatile stock and if played right could score someone no doubt. Its not like its losing money either. But it has the trouble of being in struggling department store segment and their buildings are in many bad malls too.
              Im hard on Rida, because I have caught them in too many lies. Cant be trusted. I agree totally the buying responsibility is on the buyer. So since I believe that, I can say I respect honest money losing stock pickers than dishonest ones who have some winners. They take advantage of fact that most readers are too dumb or lazy to fact check them. Oh wait, silly me.. I am a dinosaur, the word lie is illegal and politically incorrect, so I apologize. I meant to say factual untruths. 🙂
              Though I must say I respect Preferred Stock Trader. And he is an honest well meaning person too.

  30. Fibonacci anyone?,
    I’m not a follower of this, but they (actually 1 guy who has some cred) predicts a very big down day on Tuesday.
    I find it hard to believe that one can predict that from lines and waves.
    I remember this one guy who used astrology to predict the market. Archie Crawford i think.
    I’m not buying it.
    Anyways, late monday, i’ll buy a SPY put for a day or two trade just in case.
    I want him to be wrong of course.

  31. UBER CEO buy $ 7 million of stock
    I bought 600 @ 28.50 extended hours trading
    Will unload by 10 AM or later tonight
    I hope for a .50 cent gain minimum

    Not for the faint hearted

    1. Sold all 600 for a measly gain of $134
      UBER is much higher after i sold.
      Oh well, let someone else share the ride.
      There was a big sell overnight that deflated trading early, now it’s at 28.94.
      Picking which inside buy to trade is imperative. Tech stocks are the desired types.
      Maybe this is not the forum for Insider buys.

    1. Too late, It jumped too fast out of the gate. Did not buy.
      I got the news at 9:21 but was away till 9:29
      sorry.

  32. Good news for those who bought into EFC-A –

    Ellington Financial Inc. Announces Common Stock Offering
    [Business Wire] [PRICED 4.2 MIL SHARES AT $18.20]
    Business WireNovember 18, 2019

    OLD GREENWICH, Conn.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–

    Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) (“Ellington Financial” or the “Company”) announced today that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 4,200,000 shares of common stock. The Company also expects to grant the underwriters an option for 30 days to purchase up to an additional 630,000 shares of common stock. UBS Securities LLC, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, BofA Securities, and Keefe Bruyette & Woods, Inc. are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.

    The Company expects to use the net proceeds of the offering to acquire its targeted assets. The Company may also use the net proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes.

    The shares of common stock will be offered under the Company’s existing shelf registration statement on Form S-3, which was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 3, 2019. The offering is being made only by means of a prospectus supplement and accompanying base prospectus, which will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies of the prospectus supplement and accompanying base prospectus related to the offering may be obtained from UBS Securities LLC, Attention: Prospectus Department, 1285 Avenue of the Americas, New York, New York 10019, or by telephone at (888) 827-7275; or Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Eleven Madison Avenue, 3rd floor, New York, New York 10010, Attention: Prospectus Department or by telephone at (800) 221-1037; or BofA Securities, Attention: Prospectus Department, NC1-004-03-43, 200 North College Street, 3rd floor, Charlotte, NC 28255-0001 or by email at dg.prospectus_requests@baml.com; or Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc., 787 Seventh Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10019 (Attn:Capital Markets) or by telephone at (800) 966-1559.

  33. ATGE cfo bought $1,000,000 worth
    i paid 33.91 for 700 shs.
    Let it ride..
    I will be out within the next 20 minutes i hope

    1. I sold off all at 34.29-34.32.
      I thought it would be a bigger haul.
      A gain of .40 is still acceptable.
      Till the next inside buy..seeya

  34. Anyone play the inside buys ?
    Just bid 25.50 on tdc after hours….I don’t want to chase it too high.
    Also bought dbx @ 19.41..I know i wuz late, culda bought it at 19.29
    I usually unload at the open , i hope
    The best ones are the ones that come in after hours.
    One can hold these longer, but it’s not my practice.

    1. Just sold tdc at 26.75..I know , i know it’s over 27 now.
      But i made some nice change..
      DBX is a drag..will give it another few hours.

  35. Hmm, where is the CEF Chat page?

    Anyone have an explanation for EOT’s plunge today? It made me think dividend cut, but there is no news anywhere. Did some index rebalance?

    1. Macy’s (M) had a nice bump up on Friday +3.76 as shorts began to cover their bets. Macy’s will report earnings on thursday, and according to the perverse logic of the markets if the number is less bad then expected more shorts will cover to lock in their gains, driving the share price higher. Of course Macy’s could lay an earnings goose egg, but as outlined last week the technical set up looks favorable for a spike higher.

  36. October 28, 1929– About 90 years ago, is known as ‘Black Monday’ in financial circles.
    The US stock market had peaked the previous month, on September 3, 1929, with the Dow Jones stock index reaching a record high of 381.
    But throughout September and October, nervous investors began pulling their money out of the market.
    And over a three day period in late October (including Black Monday), the market lost more than 30% of its value.
    Ninety years later, I thought it would be prudent to look at three key insights from that historic crash, starting with:
    1) Stocks are more overvalued today than they were in 1929
    Back in 1929, the price/earnings ratio of the average company trading on the New York Stock Exchange was about 15.
    In other words, investors were willing to pay $15 per share for every $1 of the average company’s profit.
    That’s not high at all. In fact, a Price/Earnings ratio of 15 is completely in line with historic averages.
    Coca Cola’s Price/Earnings ratio back in 1929 ranged between 15 and 18. Today it’s 30… meaning that investors today are willing to pay roughly twice as much for each dollar of Coke’s annual profit.
    Coca Cola is actually quite an interesting case study.
    If we just go back a few years to 2010, Coca Cola’s annual revenue was $35 billion. By 2018 the company’s annual revenue had fallen to less than $32 billion.
    In 2010, Coca Cola generated $5.06 in profit (earnings) per share. In 2018, just $1.50.
    And Coca Cola’s total equity, i.e. the ‘net worth’ of the business, was $31 billion in 2010. By 2018, equity had fallen to $19 billion.
    So over the past eight years, Coca Cola has lost nearly 40% of its equity, sales are down, and per-share earnings have fallen by 70%.
    Clearly the company is in far worse shape today than it was eight years ago.
    Yet Coke’s share price has nearly DOUBLED in that period.
    Crazy, right?
    It’s not just Coca Cola either; the Price/Earnings ratio of the typical company today is about 50% higher than historic averages.
    (This means that the stock market would have to drop by 50% for these ratios to return to historic norms.)
    It’s clear that investors are simply willing to pay much more for every dollar of a company’s earnings and assets than just about ever before, including even right before the crash of 1929.
    2) Stocks fell by nearly 90% in 1929… and it took decades to recover.
    The ‘crash’ wasn’t isolated to Black Monday.
    From the peak in September 1929, stocks ultimately fell nearly 90% over the next three years. The Dow bottomed out in 1932 at just 42 points.
    42 is lower than where the Dow was trading in 1885… so the crash wiped out DECADES of growth. And it took until November 1954 for the Dow to finally surpass its high from 1929.
    If that were to happen today, it means the Dow would fall to just 2,700… a level it hasn’t seen since the early 1990s. And it wouldn’t return to today’s highs until the mid 2040s.
    Most people think this is completely preposterous.
    And to be fair, I think the government and central bank will do everything in their power to prevent a severe crash.
    The Federal Reserve has already announced that it will print another $60+ billion per month, which should be favorable for the stock market in the short term.
    But just because we can’t imagine something happening doesn’t mean it can’t happen. In fact it’s happening right now in Japan:
    Japan’s stock market peaked in late 1989 with its Nikkei index reaching nearly 39,000.
    Within a few years the Nikkei had lost half of its value and would ultimately fall by 80%.
    Even today, thirty years later, the Nikkei index is still 40% below its all-time high.
    There is no law that requires the stock market to go up. It can fall. And it can stay low for years… even decades.
    3) Adjusted for inflation, stocks have returned just 1.7% per year since 1929.
    It’s best to think long-term about any investment. Businesses take time to grow and expand, and patient investors who understand this tend to do well.
    But when thinking about the long-term, it’s imperative to consider the extraordinary effects of inflation.
    Every single year your money loses around 2% of its value. But over time those small bites of inflation fester into a major chunk of your investment gains.
    Consider that, even according to the federal government’s monkey math, the US dollar has lost 94% of its value since 1929.
    So even though the Dow is more than 70x higher than it was in mid-1929, when you consider the effects of inflation, stocks are only about 5x higher over the past 90 years.
    That works out to be an average annualized return of just 1.7%.
    Even over the past 20 years– if you go back to late 1999, the stock market has only returned about 2.2% per year when adjusted for inflation.
    Think about all the risks and wild market swings that investors have had to deal with over the past 20 years– all for a measly 2.2%.
    It’s interesting to note that, when adjusted for inflation, GOLD has outperformed stocks over the long run.
    When adjusted for inflation, gold has averaged a 1.8% return since 1929 (slightly higher than stocks), and a 6.7% return since 1999– more than 3x as much as stocks.
    But unlike stocks, people who own gold haven’t had to put up with the same risks. No shady brokers. No WeWork bullshit. No Enron scandal.
    They earned 3x more than the stock market– with the added benefit of being able to hold their investment right in their own hands.
    Please do your own deep due diligence before investing and NEVER follow someone blindly just because they are a good and convincing writer..l
    To your freedom,
    Nomad

    1. Thanks for that chilling reminder, I’m staying in bed thank you.
      I think i can stop the bull market in one week, all i have to do is to invest 100k in the S&P index. Once i’m in the market, it’s guaranteed to drop.
      It may take a major European bank to shutter its doors to get me out of the market.
      Following blindly, Well, guilty as charged.
      When me and the missus are on 39th street and Broadway sipping our coffees and we see people from uptown start running down our street in drips and drabs and then huge crowds running wildly past us, Do we stop and think what’s happening ? or do we run with them thinking they know better?
      It’s hard to run against the crowd. I did that once in 2009 when i bought Mer-k and actually had the print low of $7 or $9 and change. I believed that after Lehman, the treasury would not allow ML to go under. What a roller coaster ride.
      I made my most of my money in Real Estate buying low and selling at the next top or keeping the rental properties. RE seemed to tank 2-4 years after a market crash and it stayed low for 3 years. That gave me plenty of time to cherry pick. My last buys were in 2010-2013. In RE no one manipulates the value from one day to another and you can’t just sell when you are panicky. I played with gold for awhile..last purchases were at 1,200.
      Sorry for the rant.

  37. Macy’s (M) had a nice break out today, up 5.4% to 16.71 on higher volume. The two key technical parameters from my perspective will be the 20 day moving average crossing above the 50 day, (should happen this week) and the down gap from mid-August that getting filled when the share price reaches 18.86. Also, the 200dma sits two full points above the gap fill, at 20.87… so its a nice technical set up going into the start of the holiday season.

  38. LTS – Ladenburg looking to sell itself and hired an advisor to do so.. I wonder what what a sale would mean for the baby bonds and preferred?

    1. 2whiteroses, On LTS, I have not verified but the following is from Richard LeJune on the SA HDO Chat: “No LTS.PA would Not be hurt if LTS goes private. LTS.PA has conversion rights to put shares at par subject to a share cap of 25 LTS shares. So unless LTS was taken private for less than $1 per share (which isn’t going to happen) , there is no danger to preferreds. “

      1. TNT – To be honest, I wasn’t thinking negatively should LTS get bought out… It’s such a dicey one as it is, I was wondering outloud whether or not there was a requirement for the notes to be assumed by a purchaser. Practically anyone would be a credit positive if they had to assume the outstanding.

  39. If you ever wanted to own Amazon (AMZN) shares tomorrow morning should provide a decent entry point, as the company reported earnings this afternoon that are being interpreted as a miss. After hours share price is off ~7% to 1655.

    1. AMZN feeling the pain in after hours, now down to about $1,648.

      I put in a lowball bid for a couple shares tomorrow opening, in the hope that some panic dumping ensures.

    2. If you bought AMZN at the open this morning …congrats… you’re probably feeling pretty good right now as shares are trading about 60 points higher. Looks like 1700 is a technical support level, although that may get tested again the afternoon if traders fade the rebound.

  40. My Macy’s investment is currently flat after being up almost 10% and am looking to add some more shares today. It remains to be seen whether Santa delivers a stocking full of sweets or a lump of coal on this one.

  41. MO Altria Group – Rumoured merger with PM as JUUL continues to get hammered from regulators and medical rumours.

    FDX Fedex – Previous earnings call hammered stock. Will the sell off continue or is it overdone.

    UNH / MRK / MDT – Best of the beaten healthcare stocks.

  42. AAPL trading flat on lower volume today, after launching some new products. This not a positive signal for the company, although these launch events have seen diminished effect on stock price over the years.

    Meanwhile Macy’s (among other retailers) continues its post-Labor Day run…trading up 4% today. Macy’s goes ex-dividend on Thursday which may create a buying opportunity.

    Both stocks are consumer driven, but at these price levels Macy’s is more of a value bet and Apple is more of a momentum play.

    1. There’s a big rotation going on right now… Value is making a push while Momentum is getting hammered. That’s a major reversal and it’s three straight days. HUGE if it sticks. That probably signals that Q4 may get ugly again. JMO

      1. Agreed, somebody is rotating something. Probably just rebalancing ahead of the slow October period / window dressing the 3rd quarter. My biggest gainers of over 150% like V and MA are not having a good few days, but I’m not worried. I’m taking these 2 to the grave. Meanwhile. T is crushing 52 week highs and some ute’s are also doing very, very well like DUK. I love playing both sides of the fence.

  43. A few comments: Income related: For those who are talking equities, need to hone up, looking to build in a possible new skill set and are good self-directed students. This is actually no more difficult than understanding the preferred details. Hope it is useful to some!
    1) Take a look at selling calls on something you hold? I have held SIL and published this a few months ago as being cheap. It was a good bet. I’m out now. Did not sell calls at that time.
    I looked at selling calls on a new silver or gold holding and a good candidate is CDE. I learned to appreciate the commodity managers in the global mining space as the toughest bunch of manager hombres around. These companies have proven they can manage thru all cycles. IE: RIO just paid out a special dividend and all their balance sheets are wrung OUT. I am usually 6 – 12 months early, but my planning would be to collect the divys and option premia while waiting. (etf: PICK or GUNR if you want some ag in there)
    Regarding selling call options: If they get assigned, it can guarantees a profit and you can re-enter if you choose or roll up and out of the money along the way. I think selling calls is the BEST way to SELL stock.
    So my example: look at a holding some CDE now ? , buy at $5.40 , sell options at $6 to Sept 20 at $.10. Receive 1.85% on investment cash up front now. If called at $6 on Sept 20th with no roll out = 12.9% or 70 cents/ $5.40 per share. Boom: On $10,000 = $1,290 and out of the position in fifteen market days. If not called 1.85% in fifteen trading days and cost basis down to $5.30.
    Skill Set:
    Sell options again? (Do this in a tax sheltered account, all short term, ordinary income)…
    roll or stay naked?
    Roll up and further out of the money if the stocks begin to wave up? Don’t forget you CAN roll if prices start to go up (calendar call spread, standard electronic entry on all brokerage sites) not just on expiration date. Best to roll before option goes in the money and the volatility is beginning to price up calls further out.
    PS: You keep the divy if xdiv date occurs before an in the money call assignment may be made on you.

    That’s really about it. No more detailed than preferreds, calls, floats, resets, etc.
    It is a safe, conservative and prudent approach to the market of equity if you ARE going to hold equity anyway.
    Sideways and down markets are best for call option strategies. Commissions apply too.
    Usually have to request options trading on your account…stick to ‘covered calls’ only!
    2) Big oilys look like their 60% retracement since Xmas has happened, but is lost in the news morass. Some decent spasms since then, someone is accumulating? I like the yields and their balance sheets can ride a LONG time. Still hold IPPLF and FRHLF in the Land of the Grandmother, monthlies and hardy as a cabbage plant. Bot some RDS.b and BP and looking to just watch now…maybe sell some covered calls! All in Roth about 8% of portfolio.
    “As long as we are here the Story is not over. We can change the entire thing.”
    Happy Investing

  44. I bought a small amount of FL (foot locker) yesterday. >4% dividend with only a .32 payout ratio.

    Stock is down 45% from recent highs on China and recession fears. Could be a value trap.

    1. August has traditionally been a good time to invest in retailers Jacob, and you’re getting into FL at a reasonable price close to a major support line at 32.91, which is the 200 month moving average. There may be a better entry point if the market melts down again, but technically it looks good.

              1. Good job Jacob. Gutsy call on that one. Maybe you should consider giving TGT a shot going into next quarter’s earnings. What a year they’ve had. Going from ~65 to just cracking 109.00/share.

                1. TGT valuation seems full right now with a PE at 18.

                  I was considering using my M proceeds to buy TLRD (tailored brands) but it seemed too risky… glad I didn’t! They announced div suspension today and stock is down 25%.

  45. Interesting to see JNJ up on lower than expected judgement in OK. I have been hesitant to consider drug stocks between the liability risk and political ramifications. MMM is interesting at this level, but with their lowered outlook and continuation of trade war, they may have a bit further to fall.
    Any thoughts?

    1. furcal, I get my exposure to the drug industry through a fund, HQH, which gives me diversification and a nice yield. Between the talcum powder and opioid lawsuits, things could get dicey with some individual firms, especially JNJ.
      I’m not smart enough to know when is the bottom on any issue so if I like it, I’ll buy a small position (1% or less of my stock portfolio) and watch to see if I should add over time or admit I made a mistake and get out. A full position in my stock account is 2 to 3%. This keeps the land mines (unanticipated blunders) from being fatal.

      1. JV, A few weeks ago I looked at the 4 main healthcare cef’s THQ THW HQL HQH and went with THQ since it pays monthly (as does THW vs quarterly for HQL and HQH) and THQ had a very nice cushion with nearly $2 in UNII. I have been trying to avoid cefs with negative UNII.

        Further discussion on healthcare cefs welcome in case I am missing something obvious, per usual.

    2. Hi Furcal,

      I would be interested in MMM at 125 – that would give them a P/E of about 15. Speaking of litigation, I’ve seen commercials about ‘defective’ 3M military earplugs.

      1. Jacob, thanks, I know MMM had some environmental litigation risk, was unaware of the airplug issue. I have starter position from 165 but am not averaging down at this point.

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