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Economy Roars–Interest Rates Plunge

This morning retail sales for March were released with the official number showing sales ripping higher by 9.8% against a forecast of 6.1%.

New unemployment claims fell all the way from 710,000 last week to a stunning 576,000 this week.

The Philly Fed manufacturing report and the Empire State manufacturing report both ripped higher.

Well in an example of of ‘what is up is down’ and ‘what is down is up’ the 10 year treasury has plunged by 10 basis points all the way down to 1.53%.

Oh well–such is life.

As I survey my accounts it is really hard to ‘bitch’—halfway through the month it is another extraordinary month. Conservative issues I own go higher–dividend captures (that turn into quick flips), and new issues are powering me higher–another record close in all accounts. I am sure I am a laggard compared to most readers because of my conservative nature–but any month I can get over a 1% gain means it is Miller time.

6 thoughts on “Economy Roars–Interest Rates Plunge”

  1. Small correction in rates after a big runup. Too early for me to consider it a plunge.

  2. Tim, I also am 100% a preferred and baby bond investor. More conservativew than you as I stay almost exclusively in investment grade. I also play the long-term gain and qualified dividend scenario as with my other income is such that I can eliminate tax on our return up to $108,000 AGI. It’s not as easy as it used to be but doable. Thank you for your hard work with the website. You are greatly appreciated.

  3. “Oh well–such is life.”

    Another long term saying

    “Don’t fight the Fed”……except truth be told the Fed is fighting the Fed!

  4. If you have the time, look over Jesse Livermore’s paper “Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes”. It’s long, and even hard for me to get through, but the first part really helps explain why bad news for the economy is good news for markets craziness. Alternatively, he does a podcast where he talks through it with O’Shag and it’s easier to follow.

    1. Jesse Livermore died in 1940, why would someone use the name of a famous stock trader instead of their own?

      1. There’s a whole backstory to it, but the author is anonymous, and has been publishing in finance for a long time. He’s really good, but finance isn’t his full time field, and i’m sure he has reasons to remain anonymous.

        Also, the real Jesse Livermore is a great example for investors.

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