There should be little doubt that a recession is either here already, or will be soon. I originally predicted (or should we just go ahead and say ‘guessed’) the 3rd or 4th quarter). As more than one reader has mentioned you just have to watch energy prices to know what the economy is doing—when we see gas prices fall substantially we will get some relief.
The final reading on 1st quarter GDP came in at -1.6% today, slightly above the -1.5% that was expected. Technically we have the 1st quarter of negative growth of the 2 consecutive we need to call a recession–although I now hear the ‘talking heads’ trying to revise the ‘official’ rules for a recession.
Interest rates continue to predict a recession with the 10 year treasury yield off 10 basis points today to the 3.11% area. If we thought the Fed was backed into a corner before–they are really backed in tight now yet Fed Chair Powell said they still have a chance of engineering a soft landing–we’ll see I guess.
I continue to sit tight–primarily watching a handful of term preferred and baby bond issues that have redemptions in 2024. All of those issues are here.