There were nice gains for almost everyone this week and it is certainly super to have strong portfolio gains helping to recoup some of the losses from the last many months. My personal gains were great enough to put portfolios back to the 1 1/2% off of all time high levels. Obviously my portfolios have been helped by having a heavy weight in shorter dated CDs and treasuries–but given my lack of dry powder now if we get further gains in preferreds and baby bonds I will underperform. I hope this week has been generous to everyone.
The 10 year treasury is trading at 4.65% right now a basis point or two below the close yesterday–kind of drifting waiting on employment numbers in 30 minutes.
Forecasts are for 170,000 new non farm payroll jobs being created in October–we all know the actuals can come in dramatically different from forecast. One would be silly at this point in time to forecast market reactions to the number–this week has shown that short term movements are impossible to guess–just like long term movements are near impossible. Bring on the CNBC panel – let them prove that they have no clue–just like the rest of us.
Just checking CD rates this morning – they have drifted down 1/10% since the week started (at least on Fido). 5.65% is still available on a 1 year (callable) from JPM–but for a non call 1 year from Goldman you will get 5.45%. We’ll see what happens – I am not in the market for CDs now – I have a truckload already–I am most likely to nibble preferreds and baby bonds.