This morning we have the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) numbers being released in an h0ur – one of the most important pieces of data. The ‘core’ inflation data and the ‘headline’ inflation number are both expected to fall a little from last month. Obvious a hot number will send interest rates up, but there is no reason to believe that the number will be hot–none whatsoever. We are near the point where a ‘no hike’ decision is a 100% certainty for the December–in fact maybe we are already there.
As every week I am curious to see 1st time unemployment claims – forecast at 220,000 versus 209,000 last week. I would like to see this rise to the mid 200’s–say 240,000 in the next month. I don’t know if we are going to see a softening economy as long as employment remains strong–and to cement peak interest rates (for now) softer employment would be helpful (we have the monthly employment report on December 8).
This morning the 10 year treasury is trading pretty flat at 4.29%–the DJIA is up over 1/2%, although I follow the S&P500 as a better market proxy is up less-1/4%-guess a ‘party’ is on tap for the day (subject to instant change of course).
Yesterday a new issue baby bond priced for F&G Annuities and Life – this issue won’t trade for at least a week, but priced at 7.95% and is investment grade. More data to come shortly.