S&P Global released their flash purchasing managers index this morning and it is an interesting read – a mixed bag to some degree.
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4/23/2024
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I read reports like this all day long. In general most reports are forecasting doom and gloom. In fact we haven’t heard any long only (Mutual funds and Private Equity) with positive comments about the markets. And these guys are always positive!!! Every single one of them is negative short term, and wants to tell us about their bond funds.
If we do get through this w/o a big suck out low, they are all going to say everyone else thought so too…As if that makes being 100% wrong excusable. Same excuse used regarding ‘transitory inflation’
I know they aren’t responsible for me listening to them and taking the bait. Still when all the economists and 98% of the biggest fund manager’s wholesalers are warning about much lower markets it gets your attention
IYP, so many segments to what makes up the market. The news stories are all about AI and companies involved. The usual comments about if you have AI in the company name it must be a buy.
I see articles touting the usual nifty 50 as these authors have to write about something, yet these stocks have 3% yields and sky high PE’s
But what about other segments of the market? This report is a generalization between manufacturing and the services sector.
I am in sales for a manufacturer and I am seeing some of the things talked about in the report.
I had one customer tell me the project they’re working on is funded with federal dollars and they had to spend it or lose it. If the government ever cuts back on spending money then look out.
Hi If You Prefer
As one of those who are expecting the recession….. next week…next month… next year……
I continue to be depressed as Mr Market moves ever higher.
While I am down 13% opportunity cost by being in T-Bills/CD’s, rather than SPY, I am boggled by the recent disclosure that hedge funds have actual market losses totalling $101 billion in their short positions.
The guys that make those investment decisions are paid in the millions.
And, for Charles M, that’s real money, not just talk.
Westie, there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines in CD’s , treasuries, and MMF’s so there is a lot of liquidity. I have about 25% in these , but I also have a lot of open orders at low ball bids so I will continue to collect the lower rates the MM funds offer with the hopes someone panics and gives me a good deal.
Like you Westie I feel like we should be headed for a recession, but when is the question.
Last time I thought something was going to happen in 2001 / 2002 I waited about 8 yrs after Greenspan dropped interest rates and when it finally happened, boy was it a doozie.
Lot of things cooking in this soup and a few things bubbling like banks and real estate. Considering both are major components of the economy what is going on in commercial real estate has me concerned.
One of the big Hedge funds, Apollo Corp just bought Club corp who my daughter works for. I expect the standard mo of loading it up with debt and cost cutting by getting rid the people who cost the most then charging management fees to the company they already own.
Charles
Regarding Apollo buying Club Corp…..
Not too far from us, a developer recently bought a beautiful heavily wooded three acre single residence estate, bulldozed down all the trees, and built 24 rinky-dink houses, all 20 feet from each other.
The older home across the street has a sign in its front yard with an arrow pointing to the new development:
“Yeah, that sucks, doesn’t it?”
Progress, American style.
I hope your daughter lands on her feet.
TIm .. The market is down today ,but the bargains are Here… Georges