Well here we go with another jobs number tomorrow. Not that it really matters as I don’t think anyone pays much attention to the numbers anymore–they used to be semi-meaningful, but there is way too much ‘noise’ anymore to hold much meaning.
Anyway the ADP report that was released on Wednesday showed a loss of jobs in January–301,000. Now if the ‘official’ jobs report tomorrow shows anything similar (the forecast if for 150,000 jobs added) it will serve to highlight the major issue that the Fed will run up against as they are hiking interest rates–crazy economic cross currents. Also for those that have not noticed the Atlanta Fed has moved their 1st quarter GDP estimate to .1% on the GDP Now website–more cross currents.
Today we had interest rates ‘pop’ up and the 10 year treasury closed in the 1.83% area, although it had been as high as 1.86% during the day. All of this based upon the Bank of England raising their base rate for the 2nd time by 1/4% to 1/2%. Apparently 1/2 the BOE governors wanted a 50 basis point increase–quite a move for a typically dovish BOE. This aggressive behavior has folks talking again about a possible 1/2% point hike in March by the Fed instead of the more likely 1/4%.
What a mess has been created – the Fed will NEVER raise rates 4 times this year let alone the 7 times that some have projected. What a mess!!
6 thoughts on “Jobs Friday Just Ahead”
So now good news is bad news!!
And if we do get 4 to 6 increases and fed funds get back to 1.5% something we can’t say they are ‘high’!
The Fed is no longer an independent body, but completely at the mercy of mainstream political machinations. They are definitely behind the curve and most worried about being whipsawed in their efforts. They should have ended purchases 4-5 months ago and started to raise rates at least 2 months ago. If the economy starts to tank, will they raise rates? Maybe a symbolic raise or two, but that’s all. If the soft GDP figure only last one quarter, they will then think about raising a few more times. The Fed doesn’t lead anymore, it just follows. I think people will start to ignore the Fed’s statements and just react (if at all) only when they take action.
We know the number is going to be bad because the gov’t has already been trying to laughably “spin” (aka make excuses for) the bad news this week even before it came out
Agreed that it puts the Fed in a bind creating the mess the Fed created
Omnicron will really mess up this job report. I am not sure it will mean much compared to the next two.
The headline number will be irrelevant as to the actual strength of the economy.
You are so correct.
Much of inflation in England is from energy. In 2017 they shut down the last NG storage facility and without any internal production they have to buy spot prices as needed. Ouch. Utilities have been approved for 50% increased rates. Total nuts.
The Federal reserve increasing rates will not solve our structural problems causing inflation: supply chains, energy production, labor shortage, semiconductors
2000 melt down, 2009 meltdown, covid melt down
These are lasting hangovers
IMO, 3 rate hikes this year
On the bright side, only 3 more months to golfing season in the north East !