Our site runs on donations to keep it running for free. Please consider donating if you enjoy your experience here!

Investor Confusion? Everyone Has an Opinion

I should turn off CNBC–normally I do not have a TV on in the office–just a bunch of noise, but for whatever reason I have it on now. I guess the opinions on where equities are heading is pretty much split 50-50–markets are going higher to markets are going lower.

All I can say is I agree with Howard Marks, of Oaktree Capital, when he said (paraphrased) he is negative on equities–the SP500 estimates are off 15% for this year–does it seem like we are just 15% off of the norm?

It is getting even harder and harder to leave 35% of accounts in cash–you don’t want to miss further move highers, but on the other had you don’t want your portfolio to get vaporized. I am pretty much sitting tight today.

I have perused the preferred stock loss list and see some there that seem attractive–but will they be more attractive tomorrow or next week. Arbor Realty 7.75% is off $1.34–and seeming attractive with a 10.13% current yield–BUT it was as low as $8 a month ago and it could certainly go right back down there. With 20/20 hindsight one should have bought way lower—of course that would not be my nature being ultra conservative.

Looking at the Utility and Closed End Fund investment grade issues I find nothing attractive–I am loaded to the gills already with these issues (most bought at much lower prices). As I mentioned before I want some of the mid range quality issues–American Homes 4 Rent preferreds, some more VEREIT 6.70% preferred, some Customers Bancorp (CUBI) FF preferreds (or many of the mid tier banks).

Well one thing I know for sure–as we go through the year there will be many companies that either go bankrupt–or teeter on the edge, and there will be lots of opportunities every month to try to buy–whether we call it speculative buying or bargain buying–those times will come.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *