I continue to be mostly in the ‘hold’ camp. On Monday I nibbled a few bonds–maybe boredom, but they are good bonds–in fact if I thought we had seen peak interest rates I would have bought a truck load instead of a nibble.
With 13-14% cash I am in a comfortable position–but with cash paying me 4.5% to 5% (maybe more if I look harder)–I am totally not motivated to buy–and being 100% certain interest rates are moving higher for months to come I see better prices are ahead. My cash will grow by at least 1% in March as I have a fair sized stack of treasuries maturing on the 15th.
Again this morning we have equity prices up a little (1/4%)–of course futures prices are not highly meaningful and we will know in 9 hours how stocks trade–the 10 year treasury is trading at 3.94% and is looking for a reason to breach the 4% level. We have the manufacturing purchasing manager index at 8:45 a.m. central and ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 9 a.m. central.
We have only 1 Fed yakker on the schedule today so we should not have any ‘bombs’ thrown in this respect.
I see General Motors is laying off 500 white collar workers–not really meaningful in terms of employment news–any major company has a lot more dead wood around than 500–they probably could reduce 1000’s and not miss them. This looks like a PR stunt of sorts–they are saying ‘see we are keeping things lean and mean’–keep the activist at bay and feed the investor need to see that someone is taking care of business.
Well time to check the accounts to see what I see in terms of dividend and interest payments hitting the accounts (end of month/start of month).