We’ve been waiting all week–and now the jobs report for September will be known in 15 minutes.
Expectations are for 170,000 new jobs being created while the unemployment rate is forecast to decrease to 3.7% from 3.8%. Ideally I would like to see 150,000 new jobs with a flat unemployment rate–Goldilocks. If I had to guess right now (without all the data I need) the Fed will move rates higher at the next meeting (10/31–11/01) by 1/4%. Overall the economy (and employment) is not moving the way Jay Powell expects it to move–he absolutely wants employment to tumble–regardless of inflation.
It is nice to get crude oil prices tumbling–only 10 days ago we were around $94/barrel and now we are at $82. This is tremendously helpful in regards to consumer confidence and obviously inflation over the longer term.
Interest rates are at 4.74% right now—which didn’t help my accounts yesterday as they took further hits. All I can say is that the blood would be running deep in these accounts if they weren’t so heavily allocated to CDs and treasuries.
I’m starting to plan for a period of buying – legging into all positions–the time is near. I don’t have to do much research as I own many low coupon, high quality issues in small quantity and they have been absolutely pummeled – current yields now between 6.75% and 8%. No need to go searching – I own them already.
Well let’s sit back and watch the ‘show’–this could be a very good day or very bad day (or if we are lucky a very boring day).