So on Friday we have the ‘official’ (from the government) jobs numbers coming in at 7:30 am (central) and the current estimate is for the creation of 318,000 new jobs. Last month showed a blowout number of 528,000 new jobs. We know from the job openings and labor turnover report (JOLTS) for July just released yesterday that there remains a massive 11.2 million job openings
Today we had the ADP jobs numbers released showing the creation of 132,000 new jobs for August against a median forecast of 300,000 new jobs. Unfortunately the ADP numbers seldom mirror the ‘official’ numbers and for all practical purposes mean little–maybe they should just quit publishing the data.
A number matching (or some below) the government estimate would be nice–would not show blowout employment. The Fed has plenty of arrows in the quiver already for a 75 basis point rate hike in late September and if we are going to see some lessening of upward rate hike pressure we need to see some data that shows at least a modest amount of slowing.
As usual the talking heads will yak endlessly about the estimate for Friday–all means little–just proving how clueless they really are about these matters.
2 thoughts on “ADP Job Numbers Come In Soft”
The rising dollar is killing others- the GP @ ~1.16 is the lowest since 1984 (same then), and lowest as far back as ’72. Has to hurt sales abroad.
Time for a trip to the UK or others- but priciest if renting a car.
The 2y is at the highest level since ‘07. After the next rate hike I expect the 3m/10y to invert making the odds of a recession around 90%. Protect capital.