Just a couple random thoughts rattling around my mind this morning.
Is everyone being too sanguine about energy prices coming down so much? Seems to me that that we are now starring into the winter season with massive potential heating costs ahead. Seems to me that Putin holds way to many cards heading into the season. While I am no expert in energy, on the surface, it seems we are thinking about tomorrow when the danger is 3-4 months from now when it is 10 below zero in Minnesota (and elsewhere). As some folks mentioned in the various comment sections yesterday delinquent utility bill are skyrocketing–this is somewhat ominous for the economy ahead and I see full page notices in the local newspapers announcing 10% rate increases by both Xcel and Centerpoint (personally we buy our electricity from a local cooperative and heat the house with propane which we bought a years worth of gas a few months ago).
How much higher do treasury yields have to go before they become a great alternative to other income securities? The 2 year treasury is around 3.80% now–is 4% a good number? Just thinking that a relative short term treasury may be a good hiding spot for now for a small chunk of change. I am going to give it more thought–actually it could be a shorter term issue than 2 years as there are some tasty (relatively speaking) out there.