I’ve been waiting for 4% to be breached–and right now the 10 year treasury is trading at 4.03%. This is a mostly meaningful because it is a round number–psychologically important. Inflation is the culprit–not just in the U.S., but globally. Seems to me that many folks on the website have done the right thing–raised a little cash in the last month and then sat on their hands as ‘cash’ rewards them for their patience. Market timing is generally a loser for me, but this time it seemed more ‘obvious’ that booking some gains and waiting was the right thing to do.
Where are rates going? Higher–how much higher is anyone’s guess, but until we see employment affected in a significant way rates will go higher. It goes without saying that we need to see the CPI and PCE numbers to soften a bit. We will see February jobs number next week.
In 30 minutes we have 1st time jobless claims. We need to see this start moving higher in the weeks an months ahead–this is the canary in the coal mine for employment–we get it every week. Expectations are for 197,000 claims versus 192,000 last week–not to wish ill will to anyone, but would love to see 210,000 or some such number, but no reason to believe that will happen.
So I will again be sitting on my hands—nothing new about that.