The 10 year treasury barely moved yesterday–trading in about a 3 basis point range. Today may be a totally different day with the consumer price index being released in an hour. The headline number is forecast to go much higher year over year and core is forecast to be lower.
Any substantial deviation from forecast will send interest rates much higher or some lower. We’ll see.
Oil is up again this morning – knocking on the door of $90/barrel which is getting very near a 52 week high. This is a bit scary as fuel prices at the pump translate into reduced consumer confidence fairly quickly–it is a quick and very visible hit to the pocketbook. I know in Minnesota we saw prices at the pump up 30 to 50 cents/gallon recently as a number of refinery’s were down at the same time–that was fairly painful and it occurred quickly-overnight.
No investment decisions are made on any one number and this time it is not any different–no moves by me today, but today will factor into the decisions over the next week or two.