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War!! Or Certainly a High Chance

You’ve probably seen the news that supposedly Iran is to attack Israel in the next 48 hours—of course no one knows for sure if this will occur, but this is what the CIA is positing.

The S&P500 which was quite green turned 1% red in the last few minutes.

Since I am not a ‘trader’ I plan to do nothing–no selling or hedging of any type and know I may take a hit to accounts. It has been my experience that trying to react to events like these ends up with poorer results than simply riding the event out. I have cash so I would buy if major bargains presented themselves.

Let’s see what happens overnight – if we see an attack.

15 thoughts on “War!! Or Certainly a High Chance”

  1. In light of some of the contentious comments on this thread, I thought I would offer up something that all of us can get upset about. My wife and I have a small online savings account set up with Marcus by Goldman Sachs. It isn’t material to us but we’ve used it as a sinking fund for several years. Check out the email these degenerates sent me yesterday:
    We’re writing to let you know that the rate on our Online Savings Account has been adjusted to 4.40% from 4.50% Annual Percentage Yield.

    As we adjust our rates based on economic conditions, you can rest assured that we’re still committed to offering competitive rates on our savings products: Our Online Savings Account’s rate remains 8X the national average.
    As a result, I took a few minutes today to move the money and close the account. I was shocked that these goofballs are front running POSSIBLE Fed rate cuts and trying to screw over account holders as quickly as possible. They always seem much quicker to decrease than they are to increase.

    See, now we can all be mad at Goldman Sachs instead of each other.

  2. Here is my logic – FWIW

    1)This is an election year and the Fed wants to ease to get a desired outcome.
    2)Interest payment on national debt are going out of control. A cure for this is inflation.
    3)War in mideast is clearly going to escalate.
    4)Escalated war in mideast can cause a panic in finanical markets and long term rates to drop.


    The Fed now has an excuse to ease inflation be damned (per item 2 they secretly want the inflation anyway)

    I will stick to my thinking that there will be 4 rates cuts in 2024 totaling 100 BPS.

  3. FYI there is already war, Iran has been attacking Israel via Hamas on 10/7, Hezbollah which launched rockets on 10/8 and Houthis in Yemen firing cruise missiles on southern Israel. Nothing new here this week.

  4. Contrary to what you might see on X,
    Tel Aviv is not being bombed as of this moment.

    Washington Post:
    BEIRUT — Israel’s military was on high alert Thursday as the country braced for Iran’s promised revenge after an Israeli strike in Damascus this week killed senior Iranian commanders and stirred fears of widening war across a region on edge.
The strike — in broad daylight, on a diplomatic building adjacent to Iran’s embassy in Syria — was an escalation in Israel’s multi-front battles against Iranian-backed groups, which have intensified during its war in Gaza.

    The Israeli strike drew threats of retaliation from Tehran’s leaders and condemnation from their Arab neighbors. The European Union, which also condemned the strike, said in a statement that “further escalation in the region is in no one’s interest.”
“We will make them regret this crime and other similar ones with the help of God,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in a statement Tuesday, the day after the attack.

    For all of Iran’s muscular rhetoric, though, it would probably carefully calibrate any response, according to analysts, Western officials and people close to Iranian-backed militant groups. The country still hoped to avoid being goaded into a costly war, they said, while maintaining its ability to support proxy forces that have traded fire with Israel and attacked its main ally, the United States, throughout the Middle East.

  5. Seeing video of bombs in Tel Aviv on twitter and absolutely no mention of a possible conflict from the Washington Post or the New York Times


    1. That’s been the norm for awhile now.

      It’s another good reason to evaluate geopolitics by the price of oil and commodities versus what you expect or actually see in the mainstream news.

  6. Sounds inflationary. Guess Granny will have to work harder to peddle all those T bills.

  7. My guess is that Netanyahu doesn’t like Dems (had major issues with Obaha and now Biden seems to be giving him a verbal licking every other day); this is Israel’s way to throw the election Trump’s way, who was way nicer to Israel.

    1. Sacrificing his countrymen for the sake of an election that is not even in Israel?

      1. Yeah, that is not what is happening and is an insane take but I won’t state what obviously IS happening because we shouldn’t be discussing this stuff here.

  8. If the market gets turbulent, there could be a flight to quality into bonds and treasuries. I’ve long since given up trying to predict what will happen. It’s easier to just react to it when it happens.

  9. Brent ~ blew through $90/barrel…now at $90.83…if Iran strikes, expect over $100/barrel trickling through our economy. Iran & Israel both have an “eye for an eye” military posture, let’s hope cooler heads prevail.

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