We are waiting on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data–this could be a huge market mover today–either up or down.
Then after PCE we have at least 5 Fed yakkers who could pile on to the data in a hawkish way–most of their speak lately has been hawkish so we will see if the PCE data gives them reason to ‘pile on’. Actually ‘hawk’ Loretta Mester already was interviewed on CNBC this morning and she reiterated her hawkish views–but also claims she is data dependent.
It’s boring–but I continue to watch. I guess boring is preferred to doing something stupid which I have the ability to do. Honestly given my outlook on interest rates I can see doing darned little for the next month. The next FOMC meeting doesn’t occur until March 20/21 and with lots of data between now and then, but we will have a fair idea of the rate hike for March based on CPI, PCE and employment data that we see in the next 3-4 weeks.
Buckle up–with equities down about 1/2% this morning we’ll see if the data reverses the move lower OR if the data sends stocks much lower. The 10 year is at 3.92% and strong PCE data will send the rate over 4%.