Wow with the Dow up 600 points (1.88%) and the S&P500 up 1.55% you would think a ‘pause’ had already been announced in interest rates–the bigger the party the larger downside risk to a disappointment.
While the 75 basis point hike in interest rates on Wednesday should be baked into the cake–I don’t think that Powell is going to talk seriously about a pause–too much data to be looked at between now and December and I don’t think the Fed Chair really would be thrilled with all the stock partying going on–he doesn’t really want to be seen as a lackey for the stock market. But the markets will do whatever they do.
The 10 year treasury has bumped up 6 basis points today–that’s enough for now–keep the movements manageable.
Overall just a little movement higher in income issues, but I did notice the Arbor Realty 6.375% perpetual (ABR-D) issue has moved higher by over $1/share. I am sure there are others jumping up after hard selloffs in recent months. Disclosure – I own this issue.
As expected I am doing nothing at all–watching.
Issues drop 20% then bounce back 5%. I’m not partying yet. But unlike previous bear market rallies I’m not selling anything yet either.
Not that anything even resembling common sense applies to the Market anymore. And of course it could just be a Bear Rally. But I think recent Market activity highlights this totally phony narrative, pushed by every mass media outlet that interest rates need to be somewhere between 0%-.25% in order for the economy to perform well.
What a month. Down in Oct by less than 4/100%, up this week just shy of 1%
Lots of turmoil for not going anywhere. I’ll take the income tho.
I am sure none of my low ball open orders hit today. Yes I know capitol is sitting there tied up but it’s still in a mm fund getting some interest. Be interesting to see what happens next week. I wouldn’t be surprised there might be some disagreement among the fed committee and they settle on a 50 basis point raise.
Tim..Might look at the arb swap with ABR-E. Have had some luck with that one.