I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
HFRO-B is trading , $.69 below the A
Equitable holdings. Junior Subordinated. 6.7% fixed until 2034. Resets at 5YR+2.39%. Expected ratings by Moodys and SP of BAA2/BBB-
Looks like some of the newer junior subordinated are extending to 10 years. I did this for 2 issues (2% of my net worth). That’s enough for now. Looking at 5 year resets off the TBILL. With that said 6.7% is a nice coupon for a double investment grade rated issue.
https://ir.equitableholdings.com/financial-information/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=18279259
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001333986/8039b660-e5e0-4883-997d-81bd6673914a.pdf
I called up Fidelity bond desk yesterday about some of the junior subordinated bonds and require a min of 50K to place order. Most of those bonds (if not most of the junior $1000 bonds) are been traded in OTC and very rarely appearing on the secondary online market. Can’t compete with insurance and other big financial investment companies putting big block of order offered by dealers/underwriting agents prior to official trading date. Small investors like me are finding it difficult. Sorry about my rant but if anyone has any idea which brokerage bond desks cater for retails, please chime in. TIA!
Retired, it’s been discussed on here before. IBKR seems to be the place to go if your’re interested in bonds. I almost opened up a practice account there this week.
SteveA—can you provide the reset info for cusip G3075PAA9? Like what you did above.I can’t find it. Thanks.
I do not know what this cusip is?
I read with interest assorted reader perspectives on inflation in yesterday’s post by Tim (Try as They Might Stocks Can’t Move Higher). Having lived for the better part of the last 50 years overseas, either working or retired, I have a different perspective on many issues compared to the stereotypical US person whose frame of reference is almost universally derived from domestic experience or the questionably biased news media
I don’t believe spiraling Inflation in the US can ever be brought under control as long as companies continue to cave to wanton wage demands. Case in point, recent wage increases “won” by UPS delivery personnel, state (California) sponsored burger flippers, UAW auto workers and so called Boeing machinists. Sorry if I have offended any individuals in the above mentioned workforce but an assembly line parts installer, either automotive or aircraft, is not a machinist. A dictionary definition of a machinist is a ”person who operates machinery, especially a skilled operator of machine tools”. A van driver delivering packages with no qualification other than a drivers licence (i.e no CDL) is not a logistics specialist any more than a McD’s burger flipper is a culinary preparation specialist.
As I don’t foresee the present self proclaimed “entitlement” generation demanding, and getting, anything less than continued outrageous wage and benefit demands I propose an alternative to the out of control US inflation situation. In a word, leave. With regard to currently reported US inflationary news items, here are some facts.
1. Automobile insurance. Premium has declined, yes declined, every year since original purchase nearly 8 years ago.
2. House insurance. Zero, yes nill. Local house construction is such that there is nothing to ignite, no wood or asphalt roofing, just cement and steel reinforcement. No seismic or sea level issues to contend with if one does not want beach property.
3. Property taxes. None over a dollar for more than a decade.
4. Package delivery. Two to three days from the capital and usually free as the seller pays the minimal fee.
5. Eggs. 30 farm fresh eggs for less than 3.60 dollars.
6. Labor. Present bathroom renovation consisting of new ceramic tile installation on floor and walls. Labor rate for two workmen, less than twenty five dollars a day (total), yes per day. (rate quoted is foreigner rate, Thai people pay considerable less)
I am confident virtually all readers will not accept my alternative proposal to the uncontrolled US inflation situation but I request a show of respect for another person’s opinions and beliefs. If you don’t like my opinion, that’s OK, just show how smart you are by using the down arrow button and go to the next post. Regards, from Thailand.
Good to hear from you Bob.
Bob
So much in your rant. I also live in a SE asian country. As long as you live mostly on the local market yes inflation has been mostly tame for you, Your imported goods have not been immune from inflation. A couple of my friends travel to thailand often, guess what, they would disagree with you. You think the common people are overpaid. What about the upper management. My DIL work for a fortune 500 company talk about overpaid. Too each his own
If finally got around to listening to this podcast, which I posted recently. I can feel the whole elephant now. The title doesn’t reflect the depth of the analysis presented.
The “Biblical” Rotation Out Of U.S. Stocks | Julian Brigden on Flight from Dollar Assets, Tariffs, and Rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord”
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-biblical-rotation-out-of-u-s-stocks-julian/id1769093906?i=1000698465431
Hypothetically…Under what circumstances might Congress be willing to authorize the revaluation of the gold certificates held by the Fed? Is it possible to engineer those circumstances? What problems would gold revaluation solve? create? If you thought this could happen, how would you position yourself in advance?
Factually… Has Scott Bessent made statements, even obliquely, hinting at the above?
Revaluation has been done before — “The 1934 Gold Reserve Act…changed the statutory gold content of the U.S. Dollar from $20.67 to $35 an ounce. While this might be seen to some as a move that increased the value of gold, it actually merely devalued the U.S. Dollar so that less gold was required to back U.S. Currency, and the Federal Reserve was free to print more paper money. … The resulting profit that the federal government realized funded the Exchange Stabilization Fund…” — Executive Order 6102 , Wikipedia
No specifics on revaluation in the 2024 Mar-A-Lago Accord (white paper) written by the head of the Council of Economic Advisers, but not forgotten history either –
” The Gold Reserve Act also authorizes the Secretary to sell gold in a way “the Secretary considers most advantageous to the public interest,”
– “The President can direct the Treasury Secretary to use the ESF as he sees fit.”
— I agree with Wiki: IMHO , a 2025 revaluation would not necessarily affect gold prices. It would just allow printing more dollars to fund deficit spending. (Pretty much like the Fed taking 2% Treasuries worth $50 at market as collateral then loaning troubled banks $100 face during the 2023 bank crisis. )
— Oblique, January, Emphatically Denied, February
Scott Bessent: “We’re Going To Monetize The Asset Side Of The US Balance Sheet” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zBT3rDZKZk
Bessent Has No Plans to Revalue US Gold Reserves
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-02-20/bessent-has-no-plans-to-revalue-us-gold-reserves
— Not a gold bug, but getting there. JMO. DYODD.
Bear-
Thanks for your report. I believe there were two other revaluations after the one you mentioned. Seems like all trial balloons for now and might never happen. Just something to be aware of in case the narrative noise level grows.
Isn’t this just sleight-of-hand?
(revaluing to market)
I find it humorous there is a bet on polymarket that the gold in Ft Knox is overstated. Last I checked it was 29/100
I’ve looked high and low on the info sheets for new CDs at Etrade and cannot find if they are FDIC insured- shouldn’t it be there? Schwab & FIDO have it.
Anyone know if/where it is located ?
thx
Click on the detail CD in Etrade and under the section “CD Features” you should be able to see if there is a FDIC number. If there is a number, it means FDIC insured. For e.g. JPM CD has FDIC number 628 and you can search it via FDIC website.
THANKS- I SEE THE NUMBERS- WISH THEY DIDN’T USE A CODE THAT HAS NO INTERPRETATION. Have to assume it means FDIC… ‘trust us’.
sorry for caps.
Gold ~ new record today at $2,979 t.oz.
Newbie, minimal dividends on the 2 gold stocks I hold, but the price increase is helping to keep the accounts in the green.
Charles M ~ each time I hear a new tariff imposed, seems like gold goes up another $20; the looming CR in DC may push the glitter past $3000 milestone if CR not passed by the Ides of March
I have a few physical gold coins that I bought and stash it away for many years. Most are bought during the 1st decade (2000 – 2010). Funny is that when the price is high like right now, I took it out recently, hold and admire that wonderful piece of metal. The more you look at them the more beautiful they are. When price is low prior for most of the initial years, I never look at it.
BTW, it is easy to hide a few 1oz gold coins, unlike comex bars or some humongous bars.
Make sure someone knows where they are.
When i was in law school, there was a case where a man buried hundreds of gold coins in the backyard during his life
Guy dies, family has no idea and sell the house.
Fast forward 4 years, and the buyers stumbled on the coins and they are worth more than the house,,,
Story makes the papers, and the family sues and loses…
These are my armchair opinions.
FOMC meets on Wed. Is the Fed concerned about liquidity issues affecting various rates they monitor/set? If so, we might expect a policy response, including the possibility of a rate cut soon or the possibility of ending QT for treasuries (but not MBS) sooner than expected.
If there is no policy change on Wed., I think we see a negative reaction in markets. Companies that lend as a business or borrow short-term need rate relief. I don’t know how helpful cutting the FFR is in this regard.
Pro-liquidity:
Fed ends QT, meaning it will buy treasuries to keep its stock steady, not shrinking
Treasury emphasizes bill issuance
Debt ceiling hit forcing Treasury to spend from the TGA
NLY Common Divi increased to .70c from .65c
FWIW
Recent purchases
CIMN @ $24.98
ARGD @ $21.52
DYODD
Gumfighter, Thanks for the posting, but Bermuda domiciled and Brookfield and insurance I would do some more research.
good comment.. argd/vclt pair trading near fair value (1yr horizon) was 2 sigma rich in january and 2 sigma cheap in september ..i like the structure (fixed maturity) and ytm of near 8%
Question for the group. I’ve only been involved in fixed income for a bit less than a year so I haven’t had the opportunity to see how different issues behave in different environments. Take the fixed to floating preferred stocks. It seems to me that the currently floating rate issues have a zero duration and are callable right now so wouldn’t that help to mitigate any upward or downward price movement? The floating dividend rate of course will change. In essence, dry powder in any rate environment. Appreciate everyone’s comments. Thanks!
Pink wrote “It seems to me that the currently floating rate issues have a zero duration and are callable right now so wouldn’t that help to mitigate any upward or downward price movement?”
It depends. If dividend is suspended it can cause price to drop. Also depends on interest rates and how good the float is.
I myself have a perference for fixed issues that reset off the 5 year treasury. You get the benefit of fixed rate for the 1st 5 years but then RESET (they do not float) for another 5 years at a “competitive’ fixed rate. Many of these are trading by bond cusip.
Enstar 7.5% fixed reset new issue. Does anyone know the terms of the reset?
Speaking of round numbers, the NDX high print was 22,222.61. Was that a sell signal?
Who remembers the 666.79 SPX low in 2009? There was a famous trader crowing about that number.
“They” do these things on purpose.
“Gold certificate account: The gold certificate account reflects the receipts issued to the Reserve Banks by the Treasury against its gold holdings. In return, the Reserve Banks issue an equal value of credits to the general account of the Treasury, computed at the statutory price of $42.22 per troy ounce. Because nearly all of the gold held by the Treasury has been monetized in this fashion, the Federal Reserve Banks’ gold certificate account of $11 billion represents the nation’s entire official gold stock.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_table11popup.htm
All the gold has been monetized at $42.22. There’s a narrative that Treasury/Bessent will revalue the gold at market price, giving Treasury a $770B account boost by my calculation.
Imagine you find great grampa’s gold certificates hidden in the wall. Your bank allows you to deposit them. Now what?
https://moneymetalsexchange.medium.com/how-the-u-s-treasury-can-cash-in-big-using-its-gold-revaluation-account-f580f58d6cbc
“Doing so [revaluing the gold] would allow the Treasury to spend hundreds of billions of dollars without increasing the national debt.”
Throw that in on top of everything else and…? Huge bump to the money supply would…? Devalue the dollar? Raise the price of gold?
Here’s a Bloomberg podcast on the Mar-A-Lago Accord which is an academic paper not an international agreement. The MALA paper sees the US trade imbalance as a big problem because it makes the US a debtor nation and a job exporter. (We buy trinkets from overseas. They buy Treasury bonds with US dollars. They build more factories.) The solutions can be controversial.
Although MALA’s author is the head of the Council of Economic Advisers, MALA is not official policy. IMHO, it does explain some of “why” they are doing “what” they are doing in Washington. A roadmap with points of interest, from gold to tariffs to pay-for military security to dollar devaluation. It did get me interested in gold.
Jim Bianco Explains the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ | Odd Lots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HI0I7zFcfZo
JMO. DYODD.
ES (SPX futures) rallied overnight, peaking at 8:25am ET. The 8:30am CPI release (better than expected) turned into a sell-the-news event. So much for “short-term happy.”
It tanked off the Canada retaliatory tariff news that broke off Bloomberg/Reuters just after 10AM. I rode NDX down for nearly 100 points. It was absolutely astonishing.
ANG-B – American National Group Inc. 6.625% Ser B Dep Shr Reset Rate Pref Stk [resets 9/1/25]
Can anyone explain the bear case for this one? For those looking for YTC alternatives to MM rates returns, this one seems like a slamdunk… It’s been hovering at 25.02 for a long time. ANG-A got called on 2/24 to avoid its first reset at 5 yr + 4.332. ANG-B, if it were to reset, will reset at 5 yr + 6.297! So it seems very very likely that ANG will elect to call no matter how low the 5 year goes….. At 25.02 YTC = 6.929%. Looks awfully attractive to me and obviously, I’ve been adding all along… B pays out on 3, 6, 9 and 12/1…. I know there’s some unfounded concern for delisting, but still, the likelihood of call would remain high. Also, unlike many resets, it will remain callable at any time instead of only on any reset date, after 9/1, but then again, so was ANG-A. It’s also non-cum as was A.
2wr-
Agree. I have a little ANG-B below par, way too little, and faint hope for a dip. It looks good as a 6.625% hangout until the Sep 1 call date.
Looking for any publicly traded equities that has mostly ROC distributions. One I found recently was NXG. I like the fact that the price hasn’t flinched during this panic sell-off. It’s a monthly payer too but the only thing that stuck out was the distribution has doubled vs. 2 years ago and it’s currently trading at a pretty big NAV premium of 14%.
If you have any thoughts/experience on NXG or any other candidates/holdings of your own, please advise. Much appreciated. Cheers.
There are plenty of choices. I prefer funds that deliver CG or ROC, so partially OT – my shopping list –
— CEFs: older funds, funds with option overwrites or managed distributions, funds under activist pressure, funds advertised as tax-managed like Eaton Vance CEFs.
— Covered Call ETFs that are structured to generate ROC or CGs. Read the product materials and the disty notices.
— UTG is popular on the message boards. I am happy with QQQX.
— Fidelity has a Stock Research tool with a 2-year bar chart and a table break down – “Distributions Type by Calendar Quarter” and “Dividends and Capital Gains Distributions” YMMV on ROC from year to year.
“To research distribution details for a specific CEF, go to our Stock Research Center, enter the symbol, then click on the Distribution & Expenses tab.”
— Understanding the option strategies and performance under different market conditions of CC ETFs is more important than what kind of distributions the funds pay. A ETF designed for stable or gently up markets may not perform well in a market crash.
— IMHO the best Return of Capital is non destructive.
JMO. DYODD,
Bear. I’m a little bi-polar. I worry about being safe then I will take a risk. Bought some ADX the other day at 18.37
Since they switched from monthly distribution to a quarterly the next ex dividend date is not until April
This would be a long term hold if I thought the economy was going to grow. Since the dividend is based off the Nav at 8%. I should be ok
I’ve owned ADX for a long, long time. (So long that I forgot which decade.) It’s not one that I worry about. I get overly concentrated in sectors when I yield hog. ADX balances that out. Their old divvy policy was 3-small quarterlies plus 1-variable. This confused the yield function on the stock websites. ADX switched to 4 more equal quarterlies. This is an older fund, so divvies tend to be LTCG. Not why I bought them but in line with my current needs. ADX tracks SPY reasonably well so there was an on-going SPY vs ADX debate. With ADX now paying a higher divvy, the difference is shatper. JMO. DYODD.
I think I got the idea from you posting about it Bear.
Actually the first ETF I have ever bought.
Thanks
ADX always seems to be mentioned in the same breath along with TY and CET. All oldies but goodies……. I own CET but sure wish I owned it for a far longer time period than my actual timeframe….. Fascinating story behind it with 25% of the portfolio comprised of a single private insurance company, The Plymouth Rock Company, that they’ve owned since 1982. Performance rivals BRK over the timeframe mainly due to Plymouth Rock…… CET trades at a 17% discount to its NAV and beside that, CET discounts the calculated worth of its Plymouth Rock holding by an additional 20-25% below the Rock’s and their mutually calculated value of the Rock’s NAV due to the size of their holding…. talk about conservative…. I keep wondering if there’s eventually going to be a value catalyst to occur some day soon with Plymouth Rock as its founder is getting up there in age and really ought to be considering estate planning moves as he personally along with his family still control the company’s shares I believe.. Then again, I’ve been wondering this now for at least the past 3 years…
For the record, CET’s cost on Plymouth Rock is now carried at $700k. It’s valued on CET’s books as of 12/31/24@ $392 million – https://www.centralsecurities.com/wp-content/uploads/Central-Securities_AR_web-2024.pdf
2WR, if you really want to read a thing of beauty, go read CET’s annual reports. I’m not even sure old school is the way to put it. You will know what I mean, it’s just a great way to do it. Every other annual report I’ve ever read from any other company is a huge disappointment compared to CET’s.
Thanks for pointing me to CET’s annual report. Thing of beauty indeed. Loved it! Not least the cavalcade of news quotes from the past year.
Anybody seen or heard anything about the AIC delisted Ellington Financial call due Mach 15, 2025?
I’ve emailed them twice but been ignored.
Joel – I wouldn’t worry about it. EFC is doing great. I’ve had zero success getting callbacks from their IR group.
I too have this and have no worries. EFC has timely paid quarterly distributions since delisting and has more than ample resources to redeem AIC. This issue is just under 3% of my port and I trust that by early next I’ll be very happy with over a 9% return on my sub $24.00 cost.
To go along with the down day for bonds, the MOVE index continued upward, indicating rising volatility in treasuries.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-move-index-and-why-it-might-matter
SPX hit the 10% correction level and sprang back up like popcorn dropped in hot oil.
Elsewhere, treasuries, DXY, LQD and JNK are down.
What I texted to a friend yesterday:
“Scenario: Tuesday morning dive and bounce. Wed. CPI moves lower. Mkt gets short-term happy.”
Are we having fun yet?
R2S I like your crystal ball! Can I borrow it?
LOL, Charles. I ordered mine from the back of a comic book.
Luvin’ me some technicals. It’s something to note. MOVE is based on OTC options?
Bloomberg headline:
“Trump Allies Want Faster Tax Cuts to Balance Growing Tariff Fear”
Farce, a comic dramatic piece that uses highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters, extravagant exaggeration, and violent horseplay. The term also refers to the class or form of drama made up of such compositions. Farce is generally regarded as intellectually and aesthetically inferior to comedy in its crude characterizations and implausible plots, but it has been sustained by its popularity in performance and has persisted throughout the Western world to the present.
This is an investement site not facebook give us unbiased analysis not talking your emotional bias, Easy to spot the difference you’re not fooling anybody here.
Goodness, Martin, where did you get the idea I was making a political comment?
My comment was regarding the way Bloomberg chose to write the headline. I don’t know anything about the underlying facts, but I thought it was funny that BBG interpreted the facts that way. The press can be quite hyperbolic and misleading.
Martin,
Please, as much as you worry about what you perceive as political statements (and I don’t think R2S’ was), please refrain from attacking individuals in our community.
If we don’t want to look like facebook, avoiding personal attacks is right up there with moderating political rants.
Back in December 2021, shortly after SEC Rule 15c2-11 went into effect, OTCMarkets.com published a very insulting cartoon depicting Santa on his sleigh screwing over retail preferred shareholders via the SEC rule. Does anyone have a copy of that cartoon? I need it for legal reasons that could potentially benefit all preferred stockholders impacted by that rule.
Nevermind, I found it. Here it is for those interested
https://otcmarketsgroup.cmail20.com/t/ViewEmail/i/1B0CE6C4AA0BE5912540EF23F30FEDED/5FDC7CCDEB261C8B981D23A7722F2DCD?alternativeLink=False
Good luck, LI – I hope you can make something out of your efforts.
That drawing sledded right past me without meaning.
Legal reasons?
Do tell.
It was subtle for me at first but clear now. Are there any discussions you could point us to that aren’t necessarily your position or created by you where we might see current/upcoming activity related to our preferreds and 15c2-11?
LQD has started a small downtrend. I’m going to be watching for further deterioration.
Tweet from someone I pay attention to.
https://x.com/brandonjcarl/status/1899267986566836402
“We’re in the early innings of this. The chip glut will be historic.”
A chip glut is the last thing I’d be expecting. Now keeping an open mind.
I’m not a native speaker. What is a chip glut?
Jos, memory chips. Glut is over abundance. Suggesting over production or demand has dropped.
So, cookie prices aren’t falling…..
The semiconductor industry tends to go through glut and shortage cycles for various types of products. Memory, processors of various types, MEMs, the whole gamut.
Lots of drivers (new plants coming online, equipment/process changeovers, changes in demand, disruptions (earthquakes, etc.), issues aligning supply chain (wafer, dice, packaging, etc.) – very complicated.
My experience is that a lot of the “analysts” who have no real experience in silicon manufacturing really don’t understand how it works, but its always safe to say “glut” or “shortage” because both will usually be right in some part of the industry.
RILY – https://brileyfin.com/press-release?release_id=122659
I have no ax to grind in this, but how can this not be interpreted any other way other than RILY giving away 11% of BRS to BRS management for free? Since BRS is going to be debt free, doesn’t this just weaken the “security” (term used loosely) behind the existing notes??????
This company takes too much time to figure out. There are so many better things to look at. I’m With you on your assessment
Yesterday, Steven Bavaria on SA, posted a long article suggesting folks think about doing something similar to Buffett’s recent slimming of winners, along with other suggestions for hunkering-down for what could be a fairly long stretch. Something to think about– I have become reluctant to sell since it has seldom worked well for me. I am set to buy- having plenty of cash equivalents.
Gary, I still think we are in the early innings of a new ball game. I have a few sell orders out there but at prices I want.
I’m looking to buy, but I don’t see any panic selling in the stuff I want to buy. Which tells me this sell down isn’t what the talking heads are making it out to be.
Ford 6.50% issue ( FpD ) currntly @ $23.43 … 6.95% area ….
Any holders / thoughts. Automotive , yet seems good credit.
Hi Jim
I cobbled together about 1K F-D shares back in late 2023 (?) when it was below $21, so over 7.75%. I am just letting it sit for now as a diversifier. i don’t think Ford is going to BK anytime soon and this is debt so higher in the cap stack.
I try to find a few issues like this to get some diversity outside the industries commonly discussed here – banks, CLOs, reits, BDCs, etc.
Another one I picked up in 2023 for diversity was SLMBP (Sallie Mae preferred) . It was paying over 11%, when Biden’ kept fooling around with student loans. Its down to about 8.6% now because the price has increased substantially.
esgr 5.75 of 2040 tender at 100 by Friday. I’m holding.
Nothing to buy…offered at 100, but if holing might want to tender
7-10yr IEF & 20+yr TLT up some today, yld 3.61 & 3.66% respectively — not a lot of diff for going out 10+yrs more. Surprising the prior 3 days have been down. Interesting that their lows were 1/14 – same day that oil was at recent high.
I was eyeballing the 10 year chart myself this evening. Trying to recall time periods when people were unsure of things, the govt might have to reduce spending, layoffs in both private/public sectors, the stock market was over priced/due for a pull back over the short/medium term, the average person thinks everything is expensive now days, and etc.. I think we might very well have reached a point in time sub 4% will be with us for a while when it finally happens which at this rate might be next week.
Even today you could sell a lot of stock and lock in 100% plus gains from just 4-5 years ago in quite a lot of names. Then simply buy a 10 year and just hold on tight for a while especially as you get older. 3.75% will sound a lot better then possibly down 20%.
I am expecting IG preferred will start creeping up in price and most likely drag everything else with it if a reasonably decent name in fixed income. I don’t follow corp bonds very closely but I can only imagine good deals have dried up completely. Muni bonds for my state have zero good deals compared to just 3 months ago when I was getting 4.6-4.7% tax free buying new issues. Now you are lucky to get 4.0-4.1% in a new issue of reasonable quality and longer duration.
I still think there is time to get a reasonable deal instead of a great deal. Not too late to buy. But if we see the 10 yr below 3.75% for any length of time those IG rated QDI preferred paying 6-6.2% will turn into 5.60-5.80% right quick.
Using PSA and Gabelli preferred as the canaries in the coal mine almost every one is under 6% already. Historically both of these names are still yielding a lot more then many people in the past who bought got.
I’m thinking the opposite. Friend who is 37, very smart (perfect SAT score smart), wants to bet me, with him taking lower rates and me taking higher. This is the guy I mentioned who invented a nonsense stable coin and sold his % for $63 million after getting Coinbase and Peter Thiel to buy, among others.
I’m actually betting WITH him given all my long term munis and perp preferreds but I don’t think slowdown necessitates lower long term rates. Indeed, term premium is virtually nonexistent now.
It sure seems TLT rallies when the market falls quickly then falls right back down.
FC, I assume you are not looking at muni housing bonds as they have similar yields regardless of the state, but are callable at any time.
My experience is these don’t get called easily. Nothing like FHLB and FHLMC debt. I’ve had exactly 5k out of 1.8 million called since 2014. Granted, rates have not been dropping sharply during that period.
Lt and Fc, I don’t know what to think and how to play it.
The closest to what is starting to happen is when I remember living when the Vietnam war ended. We already had a lot of things costing more. Groceries, gas, home heating. My dad bought a new home and SCE convinced him to go all electric then the utility bill shot up. The government cut spending and hiring just as vets got out of the military only to find it hard to get a job. The state cut spending and all these hiway projects got cancelled. The widening of the 405, the overpass in San Fernando valley going from the 405 to Palmdale just left hanging in the air.
It seems like now could become similar just not as bad. Nothing is ever exactly the same
So tell me how to play it?
TSLA off another 14% today- 53% off of 17 Dec closing high. Going down in flames like a Starship– something off-putting going on?
Maybe he is no longer the richest person?