I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
Any of these would up the odds of a rate cut:
– weakness in the economy
– rising unemployment
– falling inflation
FOMC March 19 and May 7. Will the topic of ending QT get more attention? Ear to the grapevine.
r2s—all three basically go hand-in-hand. The worst outcome would be the first two followed by a rise in inflation. Then we end up with an inflationary recession—which I think is a real possibility because of the debt overhang and no real cut in Federal spending. I certainly hope not, as I’ve experienced this once before.
I experienced it and at least in my case for others not around it was about 1974 when gas went from about 25 cents or 50 cents to waiting in line every other day to get gas because of the oil embargo and with the end of the Viet Nam war unemployment went up. The cost of transporting everything went up so food prices went up etc.
This interactive chart shows inflation, high interest rates and unemployment rates during the Volcker era. Inflation was fun when I was young and employed. Times were good. Pay increases every year, MMFs paying 14%, and tax exempt bonds paying 10-15%. Stagflation on a retirement budget? When a big Social is +3%, electricity is up 20%, insurance is up 40%? Quire worrying. So embarking into the dangerous and turbulent waters of alternative investments. JMO. DYODD.
Monthly Federal Funds effective rate, unemployment rate and inflation rate in the U.S. during Paul Volcker’s terms as Federal Reserve Chairperson from 1979 to 1987
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1338105/volcker-shock-interest-rates-unemployment-inflation/
TRIN BDC with really good results today – trades at almost 1.3x NAV (5th highest I see in BDC universe indicating common holders place a premium on this one and it can issue common shares thru ATM)… leverage in line with BDCs… internally managed which is a plus
I own and bought more of the baby bonds here (TRINI/TRINZ) – both with YTC/YTM >8% with the accrued interest
These aren’t gonna run away I dont think and management can ATM these bonds if they want but I still like them at 8% YTC/YTM vs other BDC options trading <7% or even less than 6% for the best BDC bonds
This is a pretty high quality BDC with its bonds trading like its one of the lesser BDC's
my 2c
good comment.. I bot TRINI 7.875 (callable 9/30/2026) at 25.35 (25.04 stripped) as the trini/sjnk pair when using stripped price is trading at bottom of 1yr range.. good articles which are generally positive on S/A on TRINI..tks for show
Z I like the coverage you add to your posts. Thank you very much.
Sure would be great to have a “Mute” button to control the nonsense posted from certain commenters. I’m all about scrolling thru the rubbish bin but it gets tiresome.
speaking of “mute..” That’s what you should have done w my comments on ARE, +5% since then. Sorry!
pig.. please stay on the site. you are one of my fav posters!
Maine, no worries, just frustrated. And no worries on ARE, I did make a small initial purchase on Monday morning, 25% of a position, so have some skin in the game now. Never expect anything to rise up like this after buying, normally just the opposite.
It’s as if they pulled a picture off the internet and said this is the DOGE admin.
Looks non-threatening and who can’t trust this woman:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-reveals-doge-acting-215621581.html
Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE: RITM; “ Rithm Capital ” or the “Company”) announced today that it will redeem $50,000,000 , or 2,000,000 shares, of the Company’s outstanding 6,210,000 shares of 7.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (the “Series A Shares”) at a redemption price equal to $25.00 per Series A Share in cash, plus $0.274091 per Series A Share of accumulated and unpaid distributions thereon to, but not including, the redemption date of March 28, 2025 (the “Redemption”). The Series A Shares trade under the ticker symbol “RITM PR A.”
Just bought some yesterday. oh well, an 8 cents loss but only on 30% of it. Then non-called shares will give me a profit, how much depends on how long before they call the rest f it. So I bought more today at 25.23 today, sure beats fixed income. Mere 4 cent gain for a month then 10+% on what isn’t called.
I bot AGNCP in Dec and Jan for an average of 24.72, hoping to benefit from the April 15 call/float to 3mL + 4.697%. Today, it closed at 25.25. So far, so good. The next ex-date for 38 cents is March 31.
AGNC has three active floaters, two with bigger spreads. I don’t expect AGNCP to be called.
Good purchase looks relatively safe.. I have AGNCO for the slightly higher yield but not quite as call friendly. They don’t appear to be eager to call it.
MSTR vols are way down. Lack of any guaranteed return arb opportunity by going long BTC and shorting something else
FWIW-
On 2/24 on SA, Arbitrage Trader wrote a sell article on ALL-B
hmmm….
Is it being called? Or will there be a buying opportunity if there’s a big selloff? Or a change in fundamentals? Or “Now for something completely different.”?
Here is Apollo’s February 2025 “Outlook for US Inflation”. it was obviously prepared before today’s US consumer confidence numbers…
https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/InflationOutlook-022525.pdf
The “Inflation Expectations by Political Party” graphs on pp. 24-25 are wild. Democrats have inflation expectations going way up for both the 1 year and the 5 year, while Republicans have them both going way down.
I’d assume this means that prices on inflation sensitive things (like perpetual preferreds) are probably in the middle of these two expectations, and thus if you can correctly predict which side is correct you can probably get a bargain.
Electric rate increases coming to utility bills for about 65 million people and many businesses in June. Apollo may need to update inflation expectations in July or August. JMO. DYODD.
Yep, I just got a notice on rate increase. Cable bill went up $50 per month so I’m finally cutting the cord
It–I finally cut the Dish networks for my house and saving 50 buck a month by streaming.
The long-predicted market storm appears to be upon us
IMHO
The fall in interest rates is not due to DOGE cuts but comes from the drop in consumer confidence which the market worries will lead to a drop in consumer spending which may/will lead to an economic recession.
If this scenario does occur, t he Fed can also be expected to begin cutting short-term rates to try to fend off the recession.
The above scenario would benefit fixed rate securities and punish equities and floating rate ones.
To add to the mix…….
March 14th is the latest end to the kick-the-budget-down-the-road game.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” solution being worked on promises a dramatic increase in future deficits and national debt..
Which would be expected to cause inflation and long-term interest rates to rise.
That scenario would be bad for equities and bad for long-term fixed rates securities.
Choose your poison carefully.
Stormy weather ahead
Westie short and sweet. You stated it perfectly. I’ll say it again. Cutting taxes and expecting the deficit to shrink and not grow is a dream in Lotus land.
Telling the average Joe he’s going to get a share of the savings Musk has found in a check from the government and telling people they will not have to pay taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security is just a smoke screen to placate the masses so they can make these massive tax cuts. How in the world do you cut taxes and not add to the debt?
Westie – I still look at F/F differently…. When you say “The above scenario would benefit fixed rate securities and punish equities and floating rate ones,” what you’re saying about F/F is that the lowering of SOFR along with other rates will bring down the payments to come from F/F issues….. But I think you have to keep in mind the absolute levels F/F issues in general pay vs comparable fixed rate….. IMHO F/F issues average between 150 and 200 basis greater current than the same issuers fixed rate issues… So YES, the payments will come down, but are you saying you think the spread vs fixed rate issues will narrow in addition? That’s a pretty large cushion in favor of F/F to begin with as it is right now…..
Drop in consumer sentiment is excellent news for us in fixed income land. Whatever it takes to get the long end of the curve under control.
What is the problem?
Most of us here are intelligent not to invest in areas with high defaults.
If you’re in intermediate and long-term bonds as I am and you’re holding to clip coupons you’ve got no issue. If you’re a trader in stocks or bonds you might have a problem.
Calculating annualized YTM and YTC.
yield = (gain/cost)*(365/days held)
gain = principal returned + dividends or interest – cost
Note: cost should included accrued interest for bond purchases.
For the 97 days I owned ANG-A, the YTC was 8.5%. The calculation was ridiculously easy because there was only one dividend. The hard part for DIY is calculating the expected dividends. It took a bit of work, but now my spreadsheet does it correctly.
I find knowing the YTM/YTC the most useful when the holding period is less than two years.
I looked at a monthly chart of LQD (IG corporate bond etf) from its 2002 inception to see how it behaves under stress. It appears to follow along with treasury rates, as you might expect, except during the two major credit events/recessions during the period. LQD spiked down hard in Sep and Oct 2008 and in Mar 2020, followed by strong recoveries. With some help from the Fed, US corporate bonds are amazingly resilient.
Today, with the stock indexes continuing to correct, treasury futures and LQD are up. Even JNK is up. Not a whiff of a credit problem. Is there one waiting in the wings?
FYI – Rithm Property Trust Inc. (formerly known as Great Ajax Corp.) (NYSE: RPT, “RPT” or the “Company”) announced today the commencement of a public offering of shares of the Company’s Series C Fixed-to-Floating Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (the “Series C Preferred Stock”) with a $25.00 per share liquidation preference. In connection with the offering, the Company expects to grant the underwriters an option for a period of 30 days to purchase additional shares of Series C Preferred Stock solely to cover over-allotments. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for investments and general corporate and working capital purposes.
Following the offering, the Company intends to file an application to list the Series C Preferred Stock on the New York Stock Exchange .
Something similar on alerts page- also confusing. I think RITHM started as NRZ, RPT was bought by KIMCO. RITH-C exists already as a perpetual.
Why RPT on the prospectus?
WHAT is going on?
My error – RPT is symbol for RITHM & mixed-up RITH for RITM-C– but Great Ajax?
RITM-C will have a very similar under RPT – they should pick one & stick with it.
https://www.rithmpropertytrust.com/company-info/company-profile/default.aspx – The issue is announced here on their site
Rithm Property Trust (the “Company”) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) externally-managed by an affiliate of Rithm Capital Corp. (“Rithm”). The Company, formerly known as Great Ajax Corp., was historically focused on acquiring, investing in and managing re-performing loans and non-performing loans secured by single-family and multi-family real estate and commercial properties. In connection with its June 11, 2024 transaction with Rithm, the Company is embarking on a new commercial-real estate focused investment strategy.
Thx- I finally found it myself- so confusing.
Tues Feb 25 @ 7:27ET … Tsys yields at …..
2yr at 4.11%
5yr at 4.15%
10yr at 4.32%
30yr at 4.59%
Per Bloomberg
At the beginning of Feb the Treasury QRA continued the policy of oversized bill issuance compare to coupons. Bessent said it would be some time before this changed, despite his previous criticism of Yellen for the same policy.
I’m looking at a chart of WFC-L and the trend change to rising (lower CY) coincides with the Treasury announcement.
Until something changes, I’m no longer looking for a higher high in long-end yields. A sustained renewal of the SPX/NDX rally might turn the yield trend back up. Same for DXY.
Over this last week, I have finally been able to unload a few hundred ATT T – at 27.12 (and a bit lower) lots to go, espec if it can gain a buck or two. Bought before the WBD debacle.
Muni buyers:
the EMMA website now shows the De Minimus threshold :
Note here it’s 99.25. (I did buy a small position in this muni at 91.55)
https://ib-advisor.lumesis.com/advisor-admin/ats-search/mbr
For the uninitiated , the deminimus threshold is the price , above which the portion of a muni bought at a discount to par can be treated as capital gains, and below which the entire discount is ordinary income at at maturity or earlier sale.
So, I’ll have to pay ordinary income tax at maturity on the discount from par, the interest received will be tax free, and I’m netting an after tax rate somewhere above the YTM at purchase
That link you shared says “auth failed”. I think it is something you can only read because you logged into something. FYI.
It wasn’t a login but I see what you mean. It was just the emma website for a random muni
It’s 51779aag4. Check the emma page
Do people think Citi punts on this and adjusts to a fraction of 1% plus the margin?
If so we should short it. May 1 adjustment
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/akpublic/storage/public/FinalProsuppUS2B5950.PDF
Lt, You tickled my funny bone :,) which came first, the Chicken or the egg?
My sister-in-law raised chickens for a while but gave it up. Her neighbor is raising ducks now and gives her a dozen eggs which she doesn’t like but is too polite to say no. I’m always in Tractor Supply for the family cats and dogs (not the sheep) Every spring I see them selling chicks, this year I wonder with the egg shortage where are they getting the eggs? Never made sense to me on raising chickens. The cost of the feed, building a shelter, dealing with skunks and raccoons, coyotes and foxes sealing eggs or ripping off the legs of the chickens reaching through the enclosure. Then there is the mess and smell. I had a neighbor down the road in a subdivision offer me a chicken coop, should have taken it and sold it on Craigslist.
Re: chicken enclosures and pests.
Exactly. One is not fencing in the chickens. That is easy. One is fencing out the ROW, which is much harder. And I will add snakes to the egg thief list.
Having trouble locating a prospectus on SEC.Gov. An investment grade issue BAA3/BBB- from Transcanada Pipeline Strip. A subsidiary of TC Energy, I see it is trading from my Etrade bond search. 7% coupon. Not showing up under TRP on SEC.GOV. Any ideas where to find it?
Next call date 3/01/2030. Resets at 5YR CMT + 261.4BP
What’s the ticker, or CUSIP?
I didn’t click on all of them, but QOL has several listed if you go to TRP and click the “related securities” link. No idea if any of those are what you are looking for. Seems they are priced in Canadian dollars.
dumb on my part. Forgot to list it.
CUSIP is 89352HBG3
found it
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99070/000119312525030844/d905971dsuppl.htm
Steve, are you actually getting 7% if this is in Canadian loonies? Also does this get hit with the 15% Canadian withholding tax?
This is trading in US dollars and has a US cusip number from the SEC. I am holding in a IRA account, so I expect no dollars to be subject to Canadian withholding taxes.
Additionally the underlying stock symbol is TRP which trades on the NYSE also. So, I assume it is much like AQN and AQNB which are not subject to Canadian withholding taxes. From the prospectus
Governing Law The Notes and the Indenture (as defined herein) will be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of New York.
Naturally DYODD
Steve,
FWIW,
Enbridge has three preferred shares that trade at about the same yield as the TRP bond. They pay QDI in US dollars and reset every five years with a margin to the US 5 Year treasury.
TMX listing, OTC listing, Reset year, Margin
ENB.PF.V EBGEF 2029 5YR+2.82%
ENB.PR.V EBBGF 2028 5YR+3.14%
ENB.PF.U EBBNF 2027 5YR+3.15%
My experience with the Canadian OTC symbols is they still do Canadian withholding taxes. At least that was the case with Emera, Fortis and Canadian utilities. Are you saying these Enbridge OTCs have no Canadian withholding taxes?
perhaps the difference is that ENB the underlying symbol is also on the NYSE? If so, I have learned something new about Canadian issues that I can buy OTC
Steve,
I’ve owned these securities within after tax accounts and within IRA’s.
When it’s after tax, the withholding happens.
When I have it in the IRA, there is no withholding.
Steve – Canada/U.S. tax treaty enables the experience Greg describes. The usual 25% withholding is reduced to 15% (taxable accounts), and to 0% for shares held in qualified retirement plans. To receive correct treatment, your broker will advise/arrange for the forms required by Canadian Revenue Agency. I believe this part is routed through transfer agent such as Computershare Canada. Good luck!
What has not been discussed in this thread is that if you have CDN taxes withheld on the likes of ENB preferreds held in a taxable account, you get to reclaim them as a tax credit essentially dollar for dollar when you file your taxes… I know TurboTax has handled this seamlessly in the past when I file… Here’s the explanation from the IRS – https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/foreign-tax-credit. I think Form 1116 is the key as described in the link.
well aware of the tax credit for canadian issues. In my case, I did not receive all of ot back. I now ignore it
thanks
Thanks Steve. This is not in Fidelity’s bond offerings. Last time I called in on a bond that wasn’t in their holdings I was told quite firmly it would be a 50,000 minimum to have the bond desk look. I have the money, I just don’t feel confident enough to put that much into one holding being that I just recently started getting into bonds. If it was a 25,000 minimum I might be more willing.
Thanks I checked on QOL related securities. It is not listed
Sunday evening futures are up. I’d give my last dollar to wager that the market finishes negative tomorrow. Maybe I’m just a pessimist now but I think the market has made a turn. Upward momentum has been lost. That’s the way I see it.
Futures show it should open up 208. Market will continue to risk to huge numbers.
Whoa!
Elon M, when I first saw your post I thought it was…………..
Scared me.
Please assure me you are not ………
Richard 50/50 being right or wrong. Rally faded into the end of the day as day traders and nervous investors took profits.
PFFR is an unleveraged etf of REIT preferreds. PFFR has been paying $1.44 annually since Oct 2017. To see a yield chart, use the symbol 144/PFFR. I took a good look at the charts for both symbols to see if I could discern a direction.
There’s no way to predict where PFFR will be at any future time, and your guess is as good as mine.
My guess is that the October high was an important top and the likely direction for PFFR is down with the yield going over 8%. I like owning PFFR. Based on my guess I will wait and see before buying PFFR or any REIT preferred.
Market Watch 2-23
“It surely says nothing cheerful that Warren Buffett, the world’s most famous and successful investor, now holds more than half of his company’s net assets in cash and Treasury bills.”
Another storm warning…….
Stormy Weather Westie
I guess lightning will strike me because that’s exactly what I’ve done.
I think it’s a good idea.
I am hoarding cash also..mostly from equity positions..
Buffet holds so much cash that crypto traders don’t need tether. They can just trade MSTR using BRK as the trading currency.
Yes, I have no idea what anything I just said really means.
I have very little cash. Almost all invested in short-term IG bonds, short maturity baby bonds. iliquid ute preferreds, AAA & BBB clo etf’s and high spread and soon to be high spread floaters. I’ve been thus invested for the past two years and have averaged a 10.65% annual return. My port is holding up well and over the past three days when the DOW has shed over 1,000 pts. its gone up a bit. The riskier issues I hold are ANG-B, AQNB, ARGO-A, ATCOL, ATH-C, CIMO, CHSCL, CHSCN, ECC-D, EICB, FITBI, HL-B, HOVNP, MBNKP, METCL, MFICL, NEWT-G,H,I,Z, NSA-B, OCFCP, OXLCP, PMTU, PMTV, RITM-A,B,C, PRIF-H, SAJ, SAY, SAZ, SPNT-B, TECTP, UMBFP, UMH-D, WHFCL, WSBCP, WTFCM, WTFCP AND XFLT-A. I’ve been seriously considering dialing back risk since most if not all these issues would crash in a REAL crash and I can ill afford that. That said, 8-12% yields from company’s that are doing well and in no danger of going belly up is like an addictive drug.
I again express my gratitude to Tim and all posters here.
Pretty close to that 50% myself, but have been around 40% for a long time.
Gold and the sovereign wealth fund
https://kotokreport.com/gold-sovereign-wealth-fund/
https://www.scottsdalemint.com/articles/2025/how-a-u-s-gold-revaluation-could-trigger-a-global-metals-boom/
I truly miss going to the Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings, but Omaha just isn’t on my crowded dance card:
https://apnews.com/article/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-annual-shareholders-letter-89d882488c22faf86c684993022c1428
Buffett “It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.”
What an incredible life we have all be fortunate to lead, I am Azure
Ab, be nice to read that book about Berkshires first 60 years.
I also like reading his “copycat” Fairfax Finacial in Canada. There a global picture takes place. They marry well to get a heartbeat on the world financial stage via insurance!! https://www.fairfax.ca/wp-content/uploads/FFH_Fairfax-Financial-Shareholders-Letter-2023.pdf
Noticed some comments about what’s going on with ABR plummeting. Here’s a good article that tells you what’s going on from the earnings Q/A. I don’t own the common, but do own a couple of their preferreds. Stand by for the common to have a dividend cut …
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arbor-realty-shares-drop-apartment-180030949.html
CCLDP preferred dropped to my buy price of $19.02. Dividends had been suspended but they restarted payments. CCLDP pays at 11% for 8 months and then drops to 8.75%. AT the buy price of 19.02 and the lower payment at 8.75% that sill is over 11%. Their finances have improve allowing them to restart dividend but there is risk.
There recent positive spin was ““We are thrilled to have reached this important milestone ahead of schedule and we want to express our sincerest thanks to our shareholders for their strong support,” said Stephen Snyder, Co-Chief Executive Officer of CareCloud. “We expect an exciting 2025 as we continue to achieve our profitability and free cash flow targets, while focusing on pivoting toward growth.”
Small company. Not suitable for risk-averse investors. Do your due diligence.
dropping today again
Bank etfs KBE and KRE down 2+%. Many banks following suit. Some bank preferreds down too, e.g. BANC and BANC-F.
OCSL News: Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Prices Public Offering of $300,000,000 6.340% Notes due 2030 – fyi
https://www.bdcinvestor.com/ocsl/202502/oaktree-specialty-lending-corporation-prices-public-offering-of-300-000-000-6-340-notes-due-2030/
What’s going on with ABR? Everythig is down but I don’t see any new hit pieces. Earnings came out and they look reasonable.
I just took a glance, I will read more later, but I also do not see anything glaring as an issue. I do not own the common. Only the preferred. I really do not see much to worry about. Both the common and preferred have been more volatile as of the last 16 months I think. Ever since that short report. Naturally going through hard times just amplifies everything with nervous investors eyeing that large dividend on the common and a possible cut.
I don’t own, but would suggest checking the earnings call transcripts to see if something negative was mentioned in either prepared comments or q/a.
Given the timing, I suspect there was something unfortunate on the earnings call. I don’t see any transcripts yet so can’t verify.
Foreward Q guidance for 2025 is 0.30 – 0.35, so expect div to be cut from 0.43 to something is this range.