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Sandbox Page

I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.

That link will get you to this page.

I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.

I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.

I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.

1,212 thoughts on “Sandbox Page”

  1. Has anyone received the dividend for SAJ yet ? Wife has SAZ in her IRA and it was paid out on time yesterday, but nothing credited to my IRA for SAJ yet. My account is with Schwab, hope I don’t have to call them.

    1. My roker credited SAJ’s quarterly coupon today. I write from Italy, normally I receive PS and BB credits a day later than you.

      1. Thanks Fabrib, that tells me Saratoga did it’s part, I will probably wait until tomorrow to call Schwab if it doesn’t show today.

        1. Fabrib; The dividend was just credited to my account about 5 minutes ago.
          Thanks for the reply.

  2. I know a lot of III’s think this way. Just want to point out the trend can be your friend or enemy and you need to watch for clues. I mentioned in common stock chat about ocean shipping you should look at other companies to see how the market overall is doing. Consider this article on CNN.
    https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/02/business/cargill-layoffs-thousands/index.html
    The comments section is worthless. Take a clue that estimated profits (this is a private co. so take it as a guess) are down. Now consider how this may affect other commodities companies that are publicly traded.

    1. I didn’t write this as a reply to your comment – it is just a few notes I wrote for myself last night when I saw that Bunge chartered a ship from Diana. I had seen the Cargill news. I stopped writing when I saw Ag has more moving parts than bulk commodity prices – seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, equipment, labor, land (cost and high interest rates), consumer resistance to GMO’s, Upcoming 2025 issues like conflicting culture preferences on food (seed oils, a surprising new battlefield), tariff impacts and geopolitics (lost overseas sales vs new farm subsidies, global competition to US e.g. new Pacific grain shipping port in South America). All this makes predicting crude oil prices look simple by comparison.

      “Nice contract for Diana with Bunge. There are a lot of parts to the Ag business. Took a look at Ag because Cargill was in the news. It pays to diversify, if you guess right: DBA was up on strength in coffee and cocoa. On the other hand, TILL was down.

      Bunge BG – down 12% YTD
      ADM – down 25% YTD
      Cargill – private – laying off 8000 workers, 5%

      Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF DBA – up 28% YTD
      Teucrium Agricultural Strategy No K-1 ETF TILL – down 14% YTD

      Corn – down 12%
      Soybeans – down 25% YTY
      Wheat – down 13% YTY
      Oats – down 13% YTY
      Coffee – up 58%
      Cocoa – up 116% ”

      In spite of a big hedge fund pumper talking his book – Farm equipment – sales drop – efficient new equipment that non-factory farmers can’t afford, see comments
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMII0N00W90

      JMO. DYODD.

      1. Maybe that explains the weakness in AGM+E. Any comments on the company are welcome as I do own a boatload of it. I think Tim owns it too.

        1. I suspect that any weakness in the preferred price is more related to interest rate jitters and 7/25 call expectations etc than to Ag commodity prices. The common is up 17% in the last month. Here is the latest AGM investor presentation, 3Q24.
          https://www.farmermac.com/wp-content/uploads/Equity-Investor-Presentation-Q3-2024.pdf

          Fact sheet 3Q24
          https://www.farmermac.com/wp-content/uploads/Equity-Investor-Factsheet-Q3-2024.pdf

          Long AGM preferreds and looking to add. JMO. DYODD.

      2. in minsk, all roads lead to tractor factory. my grandfather bought a Belarus for a laugh after the USSR fell

      3. Thank Bear, You put in a lot more detail than I ever could. Just following corn this past 6 months makes me wonder how someone can make money growing it, transporting it, storing it etc. I think from your post the only companies doing good with bad commodities prices are the ones doing hedges and trading options.

      4. BearNJ…. I somewhat follow the crop prices. My father worked for Allis Chalmers Farm Machinery in the 1950s and then was a farm machinery dealer for them in my home town through the early 1970s, so I grew up in the repair facility with the mechanics watching after me while I tinkered. We also owned a tobacco farm until 1980 when my parents asked if I had interest in farming it, which I did not. They sold it and retired. The grain prices are down, perhaps because the markets remember the previous round of tariffs where the Chinese stopped purchases of grain from the US. My Dad has a coastal NC cottage in the midst of grain raising country and I remember the huge piles of corn and soybeans stored under gigantic tarps because there was no market for it. They purchased from other countries that compete with the US for world grain sales. I also recall a major bailout to prop up the farmers from that. We may be headed to that scenario again where the agricultural companies and farmers take a big hit.

    1. I remember seeing that video some years back and seeing if a person could buy it (one like it). I forget the exact details but no.. we cannot. Lol. I think because it was a “single” bond. Sold to a specific individual. There is not 100s of them floating around and being able to bid on one in an auction for example.

  3. SCE-H was called 11/28. I received my redemption of $25 per share but not my accrued div at Schwab or Merrill.

    Did anyone receive their accrued dividend of $0.426992 per share?

  4. Has anyone received the final SCE-H $.427 dividend payment?

    Schwab redeemed my shares at $25 on 11/29/24, but no final dividend payment was posted. Nearly all of my redemptions in the past posted the final accrued dividend or interest payments on the same day the shares were redeemed.

    Given that it is Schwab, I see numerous phone calls being made to them in my future.

    Thanks!

    1. Papa Doc – given the delays between the redemption date and the payment date, I usually sell a couple of days before the redemption date so I can immediately put the funds back to work. I lose a couple of cents per share, but I more than make up for it with other investments due to the time lag to the payment date. Reducing the number of calls to Schwab is an added bonus.

      1. Zwei, Gary, Papa Doc – but not you, goin2cali, because you sold yours! :-):

        I just got off the phone with Fido. They got in touch with DTC about this, and DTC told them that the SEC-H partial div will hit my accounts tomorrow.

              1. Gary, can I borrow a couple hundredths of a penny from you? I’d like it if you could program the CNC machine to cut it exactly.

          1. Nothing yet at Schwab but what else would one expect? Unrelated they did post a final liquidation amoutn for EQC-D… Schwab paid the equivalent of 25.086 approx…. That seems to be about right…..

            1. I see a series of transactions at schwab this evening taking back the $25 for SCE-H and crediting $25.421292, all “as of” to 11/29.

              Of course, they aren’t going to let me put the money into a MM “as of” 11/29…

                1. Yeah, I complained about this over in Broker / Brokerage tab a few days ago. Where was the breakdown? Was this a failure of EIX to deliver the money on time? I mean, they had 30 days to get it lined up….. Was it a failure of the brokerages? DTC? I had the amount deposited and removed and re-deposited at Schwab. Fidelity initially paid with dividend, then took back the dividend, then took back the principal and redeposited 2 more times, and removed it again. Fidelity has sent me 4 Bond/CD redemption notices for SCE-H between Nov 25 and Dec 3.
                  Granted, I haven’t been doing this for 30 years, but this redemption did not seem to go very smoothly. Was this a one – off, or should we expect this sort of convoluted action going forward? I might start playing by goin2cali’s rules and just sell before the redemption date.

            2. Everyone,

              I just told Fido about the issue. They said a “hold” was put on this until Dec 15 and they’ll know more then. They told me to check for the corrected amounts hitting my account then, and call them if it doesn’t.

  5. I accepted the VIASP tender offer at $22.50 and promptly bought the same amount at $22.17. Did I miss something or did I just make an easy profit?

    1. The tender offer is only for 22.4% of the shares. If it is over-subscribed, only a portion of your shares will be bought at 22.50. Having said that, your move still seems shrewd, and I’m considering tendering some of my shares.

      1. So it’s not first come first served? I thought they just shut it off when it was fully subscribed.

        1. https://viarenewables.com/press-releases/via-renewables-announces-commencement-of-tender-offer-to-purchase-up-to-800000-shares-of-its-series-a-preferred-stock-for-22-50-per-share-in-cash/
          “Holders will receive the purchase price in cash, subject to applicable withholding and without interest, subject to the conditions of the tender offer, including the provision relating to proration in the event that the number of shares properly tendered and not properly withdrawn exceeds 800,000. The proration of Series A Preferred Stock tendered in the tender offer is described in the Offer to Purchase and in the Letter of Transmittal relating to the tender offer that will be distributed to holders of Series A Preferred Stock and filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “Commission”).”

  6. Not seeking tax advice, but looking for opinions on Roth Conversion strategies.
    Last year, I converted a number of underwater positions thinking that if they recovered, I’d be doing well since I paid tax on a lesser amount than the position was worth when I initiated it. Well, I’m not sure how sound that strategy was since one of the positions went bankrupt and I ended up paying tax on a position that went to zero…… It had already lost significant value before I converted it, but it exposed a flaw in my strategy (beyond the first flaw of buying something that went BK…..).
    I’m looking at doing a conversion again this year, so I am curious if there are any strategies people use when choosing which positions to convert.
    I have a number of PSA issues where I will have significant capital gains if / when they are redeemed, so I am thinking of converting those. Beyond that though, I am struggling with trying to find a long term strategy. I’m reluctant to convert things where I already have a large capital gain, but maybe that’s the point as long as I expect that cap gain to continue to grow. Or, maybe there is no strategy beyond “get everything to the Roth before RMD’s kick in.”
    Any thoughts / opinions are appreciated. Or if there are links / articles that address these questions.

    1. Mark in CO…… After reading your post a couple of times thought I would share my one penny worth of thought on Roth conversions. I have been converting my conventional IRAs to my Roth for a six or seven years now. First, I convert the maximum I can each year without going over the IRMAA income limit where your Medicare premiums increase. Second, my philosophy has been to move the highest paying equity (preferred stock, notes. etc.) to my Roth first. Third, I don’t move any that I suspect what happened to you, a wipeout due to bankruptcy. I am lucky I guess that I haven’t experienced that since the early 2000s when I dabbled in the oil patch and got creamed by the huge wipeout when the Arabs attempted to kill off all the frackers. Cured me of investing in the oil patch drillers. Fortunately I wasn’t in to Roth conversions at that time. I have converted some equities that have fallen below par by several dollars. The one that comes to mind is LTSAP, which is delisted and I think in the expert market. It has hung around $15 for years now since it got delisted. Another I haven’t converted is GMLPF. The jury is still out on whether it is abandoned by Fortress Energy. Not a good candidate for conversion. I have even thought about selling it at $10 and losing a few bucks on it. I have owned it long enough the dividends will soften the loss. As far as capital gains on issues I converted I made out quite well on the NS preferreds that got redeemed when Sunoco bought them. That was luck I guess as I didn’t see that coming and had converted them some time before due to the high payout. I have another year before the RMDs start. I have reached the 50% level in asset value in conversions and more than 50% in income reaching the point where I can easily supplement my budget from the Roth income alone. My goal is to continue converting and suck the income out of the IRA leaving the Roth alone for supplementing my monthly living budget. My goal is to maintain my total portfolio asset value and not burn assets due to the RMD. How much goes in the Roth I haven’t figured out, but I am on track to convert it all. I rambled a bit here as usual, but hopefully you see my one penny philosophy in Roth conversions!

      1. Just a couple of thoughts on Roth conversions-

        -I look for opportunities all year long. When a good opportunity arises, I try to take it.

        -At the end of the year, I “top up” my conversion to the level that won’t trigger the IRMAA mess (I start medicare next year, so I am just starting to worry about that), and that will pull me up to the top of my current tax bracket. Luckily, I can mostly control the rest of my income to help manage my bracket.

        -I try to move things that are down but I think will come back up, especially thinly traded issues. When we have little “crashes” (like when bank stocks dropped last year, or the crash in oil stocks a couple of years ago, or the big covid drop, etc.), I convert stocks that have been pounded down. For example, I was able to convert some XOM shares in the $30s a few years ago that are now around $120, and I have been able to convert a couple of delisted issues that were shown by the broker at zero value (no tax to pay) and neither the brokers nor the IRS have complained. If nothing else, I will move issues as they drop on ex-div dates.

        -I pay no attention to whether an issue has capital gains or not. they don’t matter in the IRA. the past gains of an issue doesn’t matter much. Only its future prospects matter.

        -I am sure others have better systems, which I would love to hear, but this seems to work ok.

        1. That is pretty much my plan too Private. The only thing different is I plan to “top off” my current tax bracket with Roth conversions in years where I am in one of the lower tax brackets since IRMAA is not a concern for a bit in my case.

          One thing I could use to help though would be a spreadsheet which calculates taxes instead of having to do run throughs with HR Block or other tax programs. I have one I downloaded to help with planning but it is a bit unwieldy (I guess they may have to be) and thought I would see what people use to calculate how much they should convert in a given year.

          I have also seen some software that professional financial planners use to plot out future scenarios which would be nice to have and wonder if there are any recommendations on those. The last one I saw was $299 which might be worth the money if you like to tinker with things yourself. I am sure these things become obsolete with each tax change so a maintenance plan or updates would be necessary to stay on track.

        2. Private, they didn’t complain on the one I did for my wife that went to zero value and I transferred it to the Roth. Couple months later it was called at par

  7. GLU-B Anyone looking for a MM equivalent yield 6.25% yield to put? GLU-B has been trading all over the place today, relatively, with last trade being 50.20. It looks as though there’s confusion with perhaps some not knowing that GLU added another put date of 6/26/25 on Nov 18th – https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/11/18/2983033/0/en/Gabelli-Global-Utility-Income-Trust-Adds-June-26-2025-as-Put-Date-for-Series-B-Preferred-Shares.html

    Stripped 50.20 = 49.716 and yield to put = 6.229%. I’ve managed to buy aas low as 50.14 today.

    Most recent coverage ratio published by Gabelli = 399% https://gab-misc-pdfs.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/LevAnalysis.pdf

    1. press release does not say at what price you can put it..and since its currently callable the yield would be negative if called

      1. Nope. not only do you have to consider the odds of them issuing a call notice 2 weeks after instituting a new put being very slim at best, but with accumulated dividend, it’s trading at a discount so no negative yield…. and of course the stripped price would be even lower than what I quoted if I used your personal math. Plus they can only call on 30 day’s notice so if called you’d get even more than the full coupon amount due on next payment date..

        1. 2wr-
          Assuming the GLU-B coupon stays at 5.2%, the five dividends between now and 12/26/25 total $3.25. If your cost is 50.20 and you receive 50 for the put, your net gain is $3.05, and the yield is 3.05/50.20 = 6.08% and annualized for 389 days the yield is 5.7%.

          Tell me what I’m doing wrong.

            1. 2wr-
              Can’t make sense of the calculator. It said 4.8%. It doesn’t know the payment dates. OTOH, I’m reasonably confident that my calculation is correct.

              1. OK, r2s, let’s walk thru using it…. First of all, it looks like you’re using the wrong date for the put… It’s 6/26/25 not 12/26/25, so that’s screwing your calc up a bit
                Yes, you’re right, the calculator doesn’t know the payment date. You have to put it in. It also doesn’t know the settlement date either but it defaults to next day.
                1. Enter price @ 50.20. Leave the first two boxes above it alone
                2. Enter annual Coupon rate @ 5.20
                3 Choose Quarterly for payment terms
                4. Enter maturity date in at 6/26/25
                5 Skip Call Date and Call Price in this case because they don’t apply
                6. Put 50 in as Par Value
                7 Enter the quantity as 1 – this way you’ll see the accumulated dividend in a per share amount
                8. Double check that the Settlement date is accurate – today it will say accurately 12/3/24. Tomorrow it will default to 12/4/24
                9. Press Calculate – You should see on the right that Accrued is .484 and YTM = 4..475… BUT WAIT! This is a pure bond calculator and assumes interest/dividend is included in the price paid…. As we know, that’s not the case in $25/50 baby bonds/preferreds in general. So to get an accurate yield you have to subtract the .484 accrued from the starting original 50.20 price and come up with 49.716…
                10 REPLACE your original price of 50.20 with 49.716 and Calculate again… You’ll arrive at the final answer of 6.229 Yield to Put.

                This may sound like a lot of steps but it is the industry standard for calculating bond yields and it’s really pretty simple when you know how to use it.. Right at the top of the calculator there’s a link under Learn More About this calculator – that’ll give you the details..

                In this case, the calculation is pretty straight forward, but it provides more flexibility than most to handle more complex yield calculations such as when the call date does not match up with a payment date….. So for this simple kind of calculation you can double check your results with the simpler tool, https://quantwolf.com/calculators/bondyieldcalc.html. In that one, all you have to do is press “dirty” and it will tell you the yield when the accrued is deducted…

                Does this help?

                Finally

                1. 2wr-
                  Oops! Wrong put date. Ancora…
                  Assuming the GLU-B coupon stays at 5.2%, the three dividends between now and 6/26/25 total $1.95. If your cost is 50.20 and you receive 50 for the put, your net gain is $1.75, and the yield is 1.75/50.20 = 3.49% and annualized for 205 days the yield is 6.21%.

                  Whew! We all agree. If you want a super high yield, use the Dec 2024 put.

                  1. Has anyone exercised puts (first time I have seen this) on these type of securities through fidelity and schwab platforms?

                    1. Sure… it’s no problem to do – just get to the Corporate Actions area and they’ll have all the instructions…. a simple phone call – I don’t think it can be done online but it’s been a while since I’ve used a put…….

    2. 2wr-
      Although you didn’t say so, I assume the 6.229% yield to put is for the 12/26/24 put date. If not, I don’t get it.

      1. I bet that’s because you do not use the same amount of accrued that the calculator does because you always take it from the x-div not not the payment date. That is not convention.

  8. Recently, I posted a tweet with a chart showing that historically TLT is strong in Dec. Here’s a possible reason: year-end portfolio rebalancing.

  9. Follow up on a few common stocks I have posted about and a couple observations. Initiated a starter position in BMY on 2-02-24 @48.60 followed up with a conviction buy of a second tranche 7-05-24 @ 39.46 This company has a higher level of debt than some might feel comfortable with but good cash flow and has made a pivot to treatments for the big C , purchased another company and several new drugs have been approved.
    Next is SUM bought 4 tranches 1 @50.88, 2 @50.86, 1 @ 50.76. I intend to hold and vote yes for the buyout by Quikrete at 52.50 buyouts usually take a while to close so opportunity to do some trading. Maybe something funny going on though. SUM recently merged with CMTOY in Sept of 2023 and now CMTOY is agreeing to vote its shares for the sale, so a quick flip and pocket the profit. This will allow Quikcrete the #1 manufacturer of bagged concrete to enter the bulk business.
    Next shipping and LGN There are many shipping companies and several separate segments of oil and gas products along with refined. I don’t recommend investing in shipping to my worst enemy!
    definitely DYODD.
    I have traded in and out of NAT, KNOT, CLCO, TNP, TNK, ASC, GLOP, FLNG
    and others and I have the losses to go along with the wins.
    I can’t say all the things I look for when investing in this high risk sector, that would take too long. One pc of advice, watch a few but only play in one at a time. This allows you to see a trend and watch for risk. I am not a chart follower like Avi Gilbert. but I look for trends like the high and lows before and after a dividend and a say look for a channel that shows if over the year a stock is rising or going into decline.
    Recent example is CLCO, a lot of speculators (not investors) were only looking at the dividend. The stock chart has peaks and valleys but not as pronounced and it has been in decline over the past year. Then it had a recent surprise, the dividend was cut from .41 to .15. and the stock dropped. This is a canary in the coal mine. (Public service announcement, I watch but I don’t trade)
    Now look at FLNG again the chart shows a year-long decline, but the peaks and valleys are more pronounced which is good for trading. Overall forget analysts, make your own mark in the sand. On Yahoo analyst guesses range from 24 to 30 with an average of 27. my guess was 27 to 28 and its actual peak was between 26 and 26.25 I decided to sell 1/2 at 26.20 when I originally thought to sell all on a flip. I am still ahead on the half I kept plus a dividend on the full holding. At this point I have no worries about holding as the company has already affirmed the dividend is safe for last quarter and the upcoming quarter.
    I used to follow billgatesisevilus over on SA on shipping stocks, Long gone I am afraid. He was knowledgeable enough to be a long term holder of shipping stocks.

  10. First, I am grateful for all of the information shared amongst us and for Tim hosting it all.

    I was wondering if there are recommendations on services provide notifications of new preferred issues (retail and institutional)? I try to read the alerts here but do miss some of them and I don’t think we all know about the institutional offerings.

    Any suggestions (I would be happy to share results if I sign for anything)?

  11. Financial and actionable! Every time an III’er purchases a preferred/baby they are playing the odds. Even if they do not explicitly think about it, the decision is based on the probability that the investment will pay on time, in full. The odds are never 100% this will occur. We know currently the only 100% investing odds are to buy US Treasuries. Yet most III’ers buy issues that have less than 100% odds, despite not knowing what the exact odds are.

    We all face a similar financial decision: How long will we live? If you pass away tomorrow versus 30 years from now, nobody questions the financial significance. Likewise, if you develop physical and/or mental issues, it might not impact your life expectancy but will likely impact your financial situation. Price out providing 24 hour at home care or 24 hour memory care at a facility. It will vary by location, but in round numbers, I would estimate it at $150k/year and increasing with inflation. And once again, it will make a significant financial impart to most people with a net worth less than ~$10 million.

    So, the question is whether you can do anything to impact the odds of extending your life expectancy and “full health” life expectancy. Turns out that answer is yes. It is a statistical yes that on average you can make a difference. It is not 100% just like investing in any preferred we talk about. Sometimes bad things happen, like illness and/or accident that could not have been prevented.

    Recently I have been following Dr Peter Atta who has dedicated his practice to extending lifespan and “healthspan.” Healthspan is what he calls living without significant physical and/or mental impairments. Pretty strange guy that graduated from Stanford Medical Schol and did his residency at John’s Hopkins. Hard to argue with those qualifications. He practices what he calls “Medicine 3.0.” He defines Medicine 1.0 as the time before drugs and surgery existed. Medicine 2.0 is what is currently practiced in the developed world, highlighted by antibiotics and surgery.

    Medicine 2.0 is mostly focused on treating problems after they occur. You fall ill, go to a doctor, they give you pills, a shot or surgery. The vast majority of the time, this solves whatever immediate problem you have. American doctors are very good at this. It is what they are trained on in med school and residency. People literally from around the world go to a little hospital down the street from Tim in Minnesota. If you have any condition that can be solved by Medicine 2.0, they will find it and treat it. Widely considered to be one of if not the best hospital in the world to treat an existing condition.

    Attia is very clear that IF you develop a condition that needs immediate attention, you should seek out and use current US doctors, aka Medicine 2.0 His focus is on five areas geared towards statistically extending your lifespan and healthspan.

    Exercise (some surprises in what he recommends here)
    Nutrition/diet
    Sleep (Says if you do not do a good job on this, nothing else matters.)
    Metabolic health (Different blood tests and body scans.)
    Emotional heath which is NOT the same as mental health

    The difference between Attia and all of the Tik/Tok video’s you see is that ~ all of his recommendations have scientific data backing them. IIRC, he has people on his staff that work full time keeping up on the latest in medical research. Important point here is your regular doctor down the street stands ZERO chance of doing that. The quantity of medical research that gets published every month is staggering. One medical specialty area stated ~ 180 papers a month come out and somebody has to go through every one to decide if it is credible and/or should be acted on.

    Attia obviously will not guarantee that if you do everything he recommends, you will live longer and healthier. He claims that he has some number of patients in their 70’s that he started seeing and now have better health in their 80’s compared to what they had in their 60’s.

    Attia claims that the number one strongest factor in increasing lifespan/healthspan is exercise. Pretty clear data backs this up. Attia shows data that exercise impacts several different mortality factors, including the leading cause of American death, cardiovascular disease. Another Texan, Dr Kenneth Cooper, is the father of modern Aerobics and has been making this point for ~ 50 years. Cooper is 93, incredibly mentally and physically sound and practices what he preaches about daily exercise.

    Unlike all of the financial variables we cannot control, like elections, recessions, inflation, worldwide virus outbreak, regional wars, etc. we CAN control at least some of the issues that Attia’s maintains are pertinent. And yes, I am “investing” along side him by changing some lifestyle aspects.

    Attia has a best-selling book if you are interested: “Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity”

    (Tim’s spam filter killed the post due to these links, so you will have to google them.)
    A reasonable Cliff note version is:

    Joe eisenmann a-summary-key-ideas-from-outlive

    Attia also have a weekly free podcast which goes into infinitely small details on all of this. He recently did a podcast/YouTube that outlines his method. Worth 40 minutes of you time to listen or watch IMO.

    Peter attia md longevity 101

    BLACK BOX WARNING: I am NOT a medical doctor, despite the multiple MD diplomas hanging on the wall in the house. No medical doctor has proofread and/or edited this post. I have no relationship with Dr Attia. I have not met him and do not personally know him. I have listened to many of his free podcasts. You absolutely, positively should consult with a medical professional before doing any of the things Attia recommends. The challenge is finding a local doctor that endorses the Attia methods. Understand US doctors went through 4 years of med school and a minimum of 3 years of residency, perfecting their Medicine 2.0 approach.(1) Then they started practicing somewhere using that approach. Expecting them to immediately endorse Medicine 3.0 is unrealistic. Instead, you will likely have to search out a local doctor that does. For high-net-worth folks, which a lot of III’ers are, you can book an appointment with Attia in Austin or the Cooper Clinic in Dallas. Will set you back more than a few steak dinners, so you have to decide how much increasing your life/health expectancy is worth. I know people that have done these comprehensive tests and believe them to be life altering in a good way.

    1) A note on US trained medical doctors. Every single med school student in the US takes an 8 hour “Step 1” test during their 2nd year of med school. It used to be graded, but was changed to pass/fail in the last few years. They then take the 8 hour “Step 2” test during their 3rd year of med school. A low percentage of people do NOT pass these and will never be licensed to practice medicine in the US. But students clearing the hurdle by 1 micron WILL be allowed to practice. A big difference between the bottom few percent and the top few percent in knowledge. Ask any doctor you know: “Would you be comfortable with 100% of your med school classmates treating a family member?” You might be surprised at the answer. Stated differently, there is range of doctor expertise, despite all of them having the Dr title.

    1. Tex—“Would you be comfortable with 100% of your med school classmates treating a family member?”

      Like in any field, there are a few “great” practitioners, some good ones, some mediocre ones and always some barely competent or incompetent ones. Consequently, it’s up to the individual to look after him-herself. The older I get, the more I firmly believe that you have to look after yourself–take responsibility for yourself. Do not assume that other people give a damn about what’s best for you. They have their own interests/problems to deal with. That’s not wrong on their part, it’s just what’s so.

      You have to be your own best friend and listen to your inner thoughts. I’m 82 and heading into my sunset years, but my wife and I are healthy, clear minded and have active pursuits. She’s an artist and works in her studio all the time. I work on my investments in the morning, go to the gym 3x a week and work in my garden/yard all the time.

      It’s important to trust yourself. Seek out opinions, but make your own decisions. Nobody really cares about you as much as you care about yourself and that’s the way it should be.

    2. Tex the 2nd……. I’ll grade myself here…..

      Exercise – I cycle 4 or more times a week in the virtual world od cycling. I’ve ridden in over 40 countries world. Great exercise with a smart trainer and software app I ride pretty hard and have done a number of the classic Tour De France climbs. Try it and you will see what I mean…….
      Nutrition / Diet – We eat mostly a Mediterranean style diet with very little meat.
      Sleep – Get consistently 7 – 8 hours of good sleep every night. Wife says we could have half the house blown away and I would only roll over…..
      Emotional Health – Feel good about myself and happy with were I am at this stage of life. PLaying a musical instrument (classical guitar) gives me a great deal of joy and fulfills a lifelong love of music.
      My ancestors lived long lives too. My father is 105 and doing very well. His brothers and sisters all lived into their 90s and a couple made it over 100, including one sister who lives to almost 107. We have often joked we hope our money has as good as genes!

    3. Tex-
      I’ve been following Attia for years. On his Drive podcasts, he interviews the most knowledgeable and credible people in their fields. The level of science in the discussions can be challenging.

      Attia is very serious about analyzing and often debunking the conclusions of health/diet/etc. studies, as stated by the authors or in news articles. You can’t rely on health articles in the news any more than you would stock market news stories.

        1. Stephen-
          I don’t know if Attia has commented on RFK, but your question made me LMAO.

        2. Stephen, I am not aware of what Attia thinks of RFK’s nomination. But he has one very significant endorsement for FDA head. Dr Marty Makary is a professor/surgeon at John’s Hopkins. He and Attia did surgical residency together there decades ago and have maintained their friendship. Recently, before Makary’s nomination, he did a podcast with Attia. Makary heads up some kind of group at JH that seeks to improvement medical practices across the whole US. In particular he takes issue with:

          1) How long it takes the medical establishment to formally change their recommendations AFTER they have been conclusively proven to be incorrect. His poster child for this is peanut allergies in kids. Long story short, med authorities came out and said something like “don’t give kids under X years old, any peanut butter.” Makary says that was proven to be bad advice and is directly traceable to many peanut allergy deaths in the US.

          2) He says that a single company is responsible for making and administering the standardized med schools’ tests. He says that med schools all “teach to the test” which he finds fault with. Suffice to say he is critical of the company.

          He recently published a book: “Blind Spots: When Medicine Gets It Wrong and What It Means for Our Health.”

          Interesting if he gets confirmed, it will make the second JH Professor/Surgeon that Trump has running something. Recall, world renowned surgeon, Ben Carson, was HUSD secretary. I met Ben when has was just a doctor, before he got into politics. Amazing doctor that transformed many lives. I have not met and do not know Makary. Recommend you listen to the recent Attia-Makary podcast if interested.

          Makary is also endorsed by former Senator Bill Frist. Princeton Valedictorian, Harvard Med School Valedictorian, was a practicing heart transplant surgeon. Kind of a smart guy.

    4. Tex-
      Haven’t heard of Attia, but sounds worth checking.
      I have been impressed with Dr Mark Hyman and his food approach ( among other things) for treating many conditions. Found him in his PBS shows and books– he is associated with Cleveland Clinic and has his own clinic.
      thanks

    5. I am a medical doctor. I remember taking some sort of test mid way through medical school (a very long time ago), that was a general test, not for a course. It didn’t matter what the score was. At the end of medical school we all took the Federal Licensing Exam or FLEX. That’s what you had to pass. No idea what the pass rate was. I don’t think the FLEX is around anymore. Might be wrong. Honestly, I don’t think medical school test scores are hugely important as far as the quality of care a patient will receive from a doctor. What’s important is how smart your doctor is, and whether or not your doctor cares about you, or cares more about making money. There is really no way for patients to know that (of course they all think they do, but they’re wrong). Your doctor’s colleagues know, but they’re not saying. I don’t think that there’s any number you can look at that will tell you much about your doctor. I think as time passes, you’ll be glad to have almost any primary care physician. Primary care doesn’t pay, and government regulations are making the job more and more miserable every day. So, it’s not something that many smart and well disciplined people of acceptable moral fiber are willing to do today.

      1. My PCP is a nurse practionioer which is more common these days. Less experience but arguably as current on the basic problems 95% have. Spends more time with the patient which builds a rapport and also more time to notice things. The medical system is completely broken and most doctors are complicit valueing their income more than patient care.
        My college roommate quit the medical profession to become ahigh school biology teacher. He liked educating the patients but the overlords wouldn’t let him spend any time with them, half the day to pay overhead and malpractice insurance then rush them out in 5 minutes to maximize profits.

        1. Martin, I had a brush with Melanoma when I was 40 just lucky I had to change GP’s tried a couple and they commented on a gray mole I had since 4th grade saying I should get it looked at. Finally I told the 3rd doc I wanted to get it taken out. He said no problem, he would take it out himself in the office. Big mistake. He was nonchalant about it but he did send it out for testing. When it came back positive and showed the margin hadn’t completely gotten the cancer I think he was slightly shaken. He was sick that day and did a second incision and I could tell he wasn’t up to par. At that point I asked to see a specialist. This led to a 3rd operation and a bigger chunk taken out but the stitching was so good you can barely see a scar. Fast forward 25 yrs. Same dermatologist I went to see for annual checkups. Two years in a row I asked about a mole and he said it wasn’t cancer. Third year I had to see a nurse practitioner as the doc was too busy. She looked and said if I was bothered by it she would cut out and send the sample to be checked out. Yep, it came back positive so a second trip to see a surgeon. If it wasn’t for the NP it could of been worse.

      2. IMO, there are the two big problems with US medicine:
        – Standard of Care (SoC)
        – Lawsuits
        If a doctor recommends a treatment other than SoC, the doctor is subject to being sued. SoC can be out of date and not include reasonable, non-pharmaceutical treatments, among other problems.

        Some of the early proponents of modern functional medicine, like Chris Kresser, have been arguing for years that medicine should attempt to treat causes, not just symptoms. In some cases the causes are blindingly obvious, especially years of eating processed, adulterated junk. Don’t get me started.

        After 25 years of reading a variety of online health gurus, I believe the only ones worth following treat patients on a regular basis in clinical settings and report on their success. Forget the talking heads, including you-know-who, even the ones who seem to get it right. I want to listen to someone slugging it out in the trenches where there are no easy answers.

      3. Dr Ed said: “What’s important is how smart your doctor is, and whether or not your doctor cares about you, or cares more about making money.”

        Dr, before they made the 2nd year standardized Step 1 test pass/fail, it WAS the single most critical factor in determining what kind of residency you get into. Many students cared more about making money that other factors. Maybe it is because some of them had racked up to ~ $300k in debt to graduate from med school. Three of the highest paying specialties are anesthesiology, dermatology and orthopedic surgery. Very hard to get accepted into these. Generally had to be in top few percent of test scores to even get an interview. Students would spend $250/hour to be tutored on improving their test scores hoping to get into one of these specialties. At the other extreme, some students paid the $250/hour to be able to PASS the minimum hurdle. They had taken the practice tests and were failing. Not clear why some of these lower achieving students got accepted to med school in the first place. Estimate for overall acceptance for all US med schools is in the 3% to 5% range, so these should be the best of the best coming in.

        A low percentage of med school students graduate but do NOT get accepted into any residency of any kind. Once again, these people will not be allowed to practice in the US. You invested 12 years of primary, 4 years of undergrad, 4 years of med school only to find out you don’t have a path towards making a living.

  12. So, anyone care to venture an opinion on the differences between the various credit rating agencies? I ask because I noticed Kroll rated one of the new issues Tim listed the other day and realized I have no idea where they fit in. I assume their rating is cheaper to get than some of the others. I get the general feeling that Fitch, S&P and Moody’s are highly respected while AM Best is…. not. But I have no idea why, or if this is even a correct perception. I

    One thing I read was that AM Best is limited to insurance companies so I wonder if those are just harder to rate for some reason?

      1. — I believe that AM Best ratings are used to assess the claims paying ability of an insurance carrier whereas S&P, Moody’s etc assess the percentage risk of default. These are two different things. (Think of it this way: after a banking collapse, your CD might get paid out, but your corporate bond might not .)

        — There are special cases like Florida where insurance rating agencies are under political pressure to issue higher ratings than are justified. (Not AM Best, I have not seen any Florida ratings from them, but smaller ratings agencies, like Demotech and Weiss.) IMHO, Florida under prices risk. In order to keep this post under 15,000 words, all I will say is, if you are thinking of buying any Florida paper, do some reading on Florida’s unique and quirky property insurance system. I owned (and fortunately exited) a security in a Florida insurance company that went under.

        “He (Weiss Ratings) said Florida’s insurance market is ‘on the brink’ of collapse. Then came the subpoena” – Miami Herald, November 22, 2024
        https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article295907699.html#storylink=cpy
        “Florida regulators issued subpoenas to a Palm Beach Gardens-based ratings agency last month to force it to justify its “dire predictions” for the state’s insurance market.”

        — Small but non-zero risk of default does not mean “no chance.”

        — You should do your own thinking before you buy. Sometimes bad ratings mean good investments. Howard Marks has a number of podcasts on this concept. Marks is a guy who preaches safe investing but made a fortune buying junk bonds. Marks says if you knock out the really bad risks, the risk-return ratio improves. You will understand this if you ever bought a bag of mandarin oranges then looked at them after a week.

        JMO. DYODD.

  13. Tim

    Great website and on this day of thanksgiving thank you for all your endless work.

    One favor, please add new Boeing convertible preferred to this site.

  14. I was wondering why ECC-PRD was going down so much, down even more than many peers lately, and so easy to buy at the bid! I looked at ECC’s latest Q earnings report and found my answer: they had issued an additional 1.5 million shares of ECC-PRD during the last quarter, and goodness knows, may still be issuing more. This would seem to suggest that they have zero plans to call the D shares any time in the next 5 years or so – how could they issue at $19.80 or so and call even 5 years later at $25 without taking a serious hit? Disclosure: I own it, DYODd

    1. It is a perpetual. The call date is superfluous as I do not believe rates will decline. I prefer rates not declining.
      Thanks for posting!

    2. I am overallocated to ecc.prd…in at about 19.80.
      3% of portfolio.. .
      I need to stop buying, I think it’s worth 22 right now..
      Good luck..

    3. Yeah I doubt ECC ever calls D. That’s fine with me. I think it’s mis-priced and it’s my #1 or #2 preferred stock holding depending on the day, in competition with ET-I (which I’m not selling, but I probably wouldn’t buy it at this price).

    1. Thanks for mentioning it – I took a look and noticed the Current Yield sheet is whacked out, missing a column and sorted based “Current Yield” but is actually the dividend amount.

      1. FL_Guy-
        The list is sorted by Earliest Redemption Date with yellow marking those past the date.

  15. Looking at the daily chart of NDX futures (NQ), I noticed something odd for the last few months: price drops right at the end of the month and rallies into the beginning of the next month. Here it is at the end of November and it’s a down day. The lows were on 8/5, 9/6, 10/2 and 11/4, and leaving out 10/2 the other three form a rising uptrend line. How…mechanical.

    This effect would be relevant to me if the December rally failed to materialize. What are the odds of that?

    1. Gary….. Ready to buy some? I’m considering it and also own METCL since it was issued. Really enjoyed that 9% payment and it has held par+ so far. About the earliest I expect to see METCZ is Friday and more likely next week.

  16. State Street Bank just issued a $2.25B debt issue. Does anyone know the cusip # or anything about this security? Thanks.

  17. Any thoughts on OAK/PRB. Rated BBB and paying 7.2% best I’ve found for a perpetual with this rating.

    1. If OAK-B is purchased in an IRA there may be UBTI tax. I haven’t looked at it closely.

    1. These are additional bonds from an already existing issue.
      “form a single series with the $600 million in aggregate principal amount of the 6.000% notes due 2029 that the Company initially issued on February 1, 2024”

  18. As Thanksgiving is near, I wanted to say a big THANK YOU to Tim and all the other fine people that are part of this community he built. For years the 1st thing I do in the morning and last thing I do in the afternoon is review the post for useful information to help me make educated decisions regarding my families nest egg. I really do appreciate, being in company of others with shared investment philosophy. Cheers to you all, and have a wonderful Thanksgiving. Rob

  19. I’m concerned that this recent comment of mine sounded bearish/alarmist. It wasn’t intended that way.
    “Looking through the charts of preferreds/babies this morning, I’m starting to notice formations that project lower, often into the area of the Oct 2023 lows.”

    I try not to make predictions but instead look at possibilities and guess at probabilities, in this case, the possibility of the 10-year yield rising above 4.5%. As to the probability of that happening, I can only guess non-zero.

    1. r2s don’t beat yourself up. I actually took your observation as a positive on the negative you’re seeing on prices. The reason for my comment on selling UEPEP in the illiquids forum. I’m with you for a ride in the clown car like the old buster Keaton silent shorts.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frYIj2FGmMA

  20. EP-C El Paso Energy Capital Trust I, 4 3/4% Trust Convertible Preferred Securities due 3/31/28

    For the ratings (BBB-/BB+) seems cheap with last trade on Friday at 6% YTM…. Bid’s higher now, but still seems like good value…. Also, strange to think about this having been in “broken convertible” longterm, but it’s now not out of the realm of possibility that the conversion aspect could come into play. I think KMI only had to increase something like 23% now for conversion to be meaningful.

    Capital Trust I (Trust I), is a 100%-owned business trust that as of December 31, 2023, had 4.4 million of 4.75% trust convertible preferred securities outstanding (referred to as the Trust I Preferred Securities). Trust I exists for the sole purpose of issuing preferred securities and investing the proceeds in 4.75% convertible subordinated debentures, which are due 2028. Trust I’s sole source of income is interest earned on these debentures. This interest income is used to pay distributions on the preferred securities. We provide a full and unconditional guarantee of the Trust I Preferred Securities. There are no significant restrictions from these securities on our ability to obtain funds from our subsidiaries by distribution, dividend or loan. The Trust I Preferred Securities are non-voting (except in limited circumstances), pay quarterly distributions at an annual rate of 4.75% and carry a liquidation value of $50 per security plus accrued and unpaid distributions. The Trust I Preferred Securities outstanding as of December 31, 2023 are convertible at any time prior to the close of business on March 31, 2028, at the option of the holder, into the following mixed consideration: (i) 0.7197 of a share of our Class P common stock; and (ii) $25.18 in cash without interest. We have the right to redeem these Trust I Preferred Securities at any time.

  21. One of the seminal investment books is “Triumph of the Optimists” by Dimson, Marsh, & Staunton which outlines 101 years of global investment returns covering 16 countries. They update the data each year with a free download by UBS.

    Dimson and three other authors recently published a similar piece: “Long-Run Asset Returns” available for free download on SSRN. Many interesting points in the paper, but I will verbatim highlight two:

    Omissions can be numerous. Zweig (2009) reported that “Siegel exclude[d] 97% of all the stocks that existed in the earliest years of the US market.” He noted that “more than 300 companies in various industries had been launched in the US by 1801. Most ended up fading into oblivion, leaving no record of their hapless investors’ losses. Yet the earliest of the data in Stocks for the Long Run tracks only seven bank stocks – all of which were selected because they did not go bust” (Graham & Zweig 2024). The large number of omissions from the index meant that it failed the test of macro-consistency. Moreover, unless an investor was clairvoyant—knowing which firms were destined to disappear—the investment strategy of the index could not have been replicated in real life
    .

    Looking at Schmelzing’s (2020) data in Table 3 reveals that, before the twentieth century, inflation was very low and there was little difference between nominal and real yields, which both fell to 3–4% around 1900. The twentieth century saw more persistent price rises, particularly the Great Inflation of the 1970s, which pushed nominal rates up to double digits—a level last seen in the 1500s. The post-1982 Great Moderation witnessed global convergence in inflation rates toward 2%—back to the low levels that characterized the pre-1900 economy. Even after inflation expectations stabilized at low levels in the 2000s, real yields and policy rates kept falling to negative territory. Eventually, even nominal yields in many European countries and Japan turned negative, or reached record low levels in places where they didn’t (the United States and the United Kingdom). The global rise in inflation in 2021–2022 finally turned bond yields higher after a 40-year downtrend. The yield evidence in Table 3 stretching back over centuries provides confirmation that the recent low (even negative) bond yields were truly exceptional.

    Pretty geeky stuff, but important IMO. Translating the two points I highlighted:

    1) Long run stock returns have been over estimated ala Jeremy Siegel “Stocks for the Long-Run” Henrik Bessembinder has also done important work on this.

    2) Inflation was abnormally high from 1900-1999 @ 4.4%, whereas <1.0% was the norm from 1600-1899. Question is whether the older data is pertinent to today’s world or not?

    Link to SSRN paper:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5022480

    1. Not Tex, we have reached a point with demand for finite resources by a ever larger world population that will cause an upward spiral in costs as competition for resources heats up. Even if we continue to find new resources and new ways to provide food and products to fill the greater demand the cost to do so will increase and this creates inflation.
      At least that’s my uneducated opinion on the subject.

    2. Can we please go back to the Hammurabi times where for 1500 years the rate was variously set at 12.5%-20% depending on the source you believe?

      1. LT, I am sure you keep your copy of “A History of Interest Rates” by Homer and Sylla at close hand. It is the bible for history rates covering the last 5,000 years. Yes, that is thousand! Another seminal publication worth reading for historical perspective.

        With the debate on long term interest rates and budget deficits, the standard book is more recent(2009): “This Time is Different” by Reinhart and Rogoff which covers “eight centuries of Financial Folly.” They also published a short paper which highlighted the same conclusions. Bottom line was the higher debt/GDP got, the slower GDP growth would become. Kind of explains modern Japanese growth rates and foreshadows US growth rates if it is NOT different this time.

      2. If you multiply our present interest rates by the turns of GDP

        debt leverage 3-4x.

        US Short Term Rates 5%.

        You arrive at 15-20%.

        Interest rates where lower when Jesus walked the earth and called out lenders as thieves.

  22. Looking through the charts of preferreds/babies this morning, I’m starting to notice formations that project lower, often into the area of the Oct 2023 lows. The lifeboats haven’t been lowered. The passengers are still partying, but some are checking out the life jacket lockers just in case. It’s good to be prepared.

    My reaction to the above will be to stop buying little bits of this and that and hang onto my 12% cash. I want the good deals should they appear. Worst case, I get to *enjoy* MMF yields.

    You could say broadly that there are two circumstances that drive $25 stocks lower: (1) an economic downturn with rising unemployment, and (2) rising treasury yields. The fall 2022 and 2023 dips go with #2. And if there is another dip in the offing, I expect it will be #2 again. The important difference between #1 and #2 is the odds of business failures are higher with #1 and the dip is likely to be larger and scarier.

    1. Driving down the freeway today saw a billboard for a local bank advertising 5% 6 month CD rate that is a little misleading. You go to their website and it’s an actual 4.88% and 5% annual. Interesting the longer out you go the less they are willing to pay you. Either they are betting rates will be lower or they want more of a cushion for the risk factor.
      https://www.poppy.bank/open-new-accounts/
      R2S, On #2 some people call it rearranging the deck chairs in case there are no life boats. I like to say grab a chair before the music stops as there are not enough chairs for everyone to sit. #1 is when I leave the party early to get out of the parking lot before everyone rushes to the exit and all are trying to get out of the parking lot at the same time.
      I’m doing similar to you. Been doing a little more selling and less buying and no interest in recent offerings. Going through the list and checking it twice, may sell more before the Xmas rush. I have already mentioned I am looking at some holdings that are up only .1 to 3% since purchase and my feeling they might have a higher risk of falling than going up as we get to the end of the year. My crystal ball says there is always excitement around the time of the coronation of the new king but after the celebration is over what then?
      Normal year the party ends on a high note for the year then after the New year the hangover sets in. Not so sure this is a normal year.
      Best story I hear on the news is about 2 dozen shoppers camped outside a Costco waiting for opening day before Thanksgiving. I would prefer staying at the Hilton down the street instead of camping out in 5 days of rain.

    1. He’s a fiscal hawk who will talk tough but his hands will be tied by the reality of a US government budget that has little room for DOGE to make the kind of difference that would actually place the deficits in check. Tariffs will bring some income but come with a risk of higher inflation. Expect tough talk and an eventual resumption of what Yellen and her predecessors have been doing for many years, issue a bunch of bills and bonds. As Lyn Alden says: Nothing stops this train.

      1. “Nothing” has the potential to become “something.” Haven’t you seen the kid’s movie , “The Neverending Story?”
        I saw parts one Saturday flipping through channels. The “Nothing” can take over and make the “Something” disappear.
        I feel that way about crypto every day.

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