I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
Only way to get around SPAM blocker. . .
(¡Un gran día en el SandBox!)
Un evento extremadamente raro que debería comprender si invierte en bonos municipales individuales. Una ciudad microscópicamente pequeña del estado de Washington se declaró en bancarrota bajo el Capítulo 9. Tiene algunos bonos de obligación general en circulación, por lo que es posible que sufra pérdidas. 26 de los 50 estados actualmente permiten la bancarrota bajo el Capítulo 9, lo que significa que 24 no lo permiten. El elefante que espera en la sala de bancarrota es Chicago, pero la ley de Illinois actualmente no lo permite. No me sorprendería que cambiaran la ley retroactivamente.
Recuerde que los estados/territorios no podían declararse en bancarrota, pero el Congreso aprobó una ley que permitió a Puerto Rico declararse. Ha sido un desastre épico, y quiero decir, épico. ¡La compañía eléctrica de Puerto Rico aún no ha salido de la bancarrota después de nueve años! Todo gracias a que un solo juez de un tribunal de distrito lo permitió. Mientras tanto, han gastado aproximadamente $500 millones en abogados/consultores sin un final a la vista. ¡Es la comidilla de la ciudad en las convenciones de abogados de bancarrota!
En resumen, incluso con los bonos GO, es necesario comprender el riesgo. Los bonos GO de Puerto Rico no asegurados sufrieron pérdidas importantes, al igual que Detroit y otros.
Aviso: NO mantenemos ninguno de estos bonos de Washington City (Cle Elum) en ninguna cuenta. SÍ mantenemos cantidades sustanciales de bonos asegurados de Puerto Rico Electric en múltiples cuentas que, hasta la fecha, se han pagado a tiempo y en su totalidad.
De Bondbuyer.com
Una pequeña ciudad del estado de Washington se declaró en bancarrota municipal (Capítulo 9) tras un fallo adverso del árbitro en una disputa urbanística que la ha dejado en riesgo de insolvencia.
Cle Elum, una ciudad de 2157 habitantes ubicada aproximadamente a 135 kilómetros al sureste de Seattle, se declaró en bancarrota el martes.
Las autoridades municipales informaron que no pudieron llegar a un acuerdo con City Heights Holdings, LLC sobre el pago de una sentencia de 25,9 millones de dólares relacionada con un proyecto de viviendas.
En noviembre, un árbitro otorgó al desarrollador 22,2 millones de dólares en daños a una tasa de interés del 12%, cantidad que desde entonces ha aumentado hasta el total actual.
Not sure what’s going on, but CUBI is up 20% in the last couple of weeks.
The bank seems to be doing better these days. Cheap enough to catch a bid, too.
STRK is impossible to borrow at quite a few brokers. It has not yet made the threshold securities list , but with STRF and STRD relatively easy to borrow, the latter seem to be good stocks to arb against each other
Nasdaq Threshold list:
https://nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=RegSHOThreshold
IBKR had 100,000 shares of it to borrow last night, and this morning exactly zero.
I agree with your relative value trade, if it was possible to actually put it on.
A bit of good news if you hold any PBI-B as I do;
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250626804996/en/Pitney-Bowes-Parcel-Shipping-Index-U.S.-Carrier-Disruption-Is-IncreasingAnd-Thats-Good-News-for-Shippers
PBI-B down 2% in the last month.
I hope it stays under $20.00 a bit longer, still buying a bit here and there, still paying close to 9% at his price.
Funny thing is, the common is up almost 9% in the last month.
boy these guys must be thrilled…
Friday…
On June 27, 2025, INmune Bio, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with two healthcare-focused institutional investors for the sale of an aggregate of 3,000,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Shares”), in a registered direct offering (the “Offering”) at a purchase price of $6.30 per share, priced at-the-market under Nasdaq rules, for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of approximately $18.9 million
Monday….
In the Phase 2 MINDFuL trial of XPro™ in patients with early Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) with biomarkers of inflammation, the modified intent-to-treat (mITT) population (n=200) did not meet the primary cognitive endpoint
And the stock tanked to $2.00 on Monday, wiping out 75% of that Friday investment…
And just for fun, here are the guys who were REALLY happy today – BMNR +694% TODAY.
https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitmine-stock-soars-511-02-250-million-ethereum-bet-2507/
BitMine Immersion Technologies, a company that recently uplisted to the NYSE American, has made a significant strategic shift by announcing a $250 million private placement. This move is aimed at accumulating Ethereum (ETH) as its primary treasury reserve asset, marking a departure from its previous focus on Bitcoin mining. The company plans to issue 55,555,556 common shares at $4.50 each, with the offering expected to close by July 3, pending customary approvals from the NYSE American.
The investment firm MOZAYYX is leading the private placement, with participation from several high-profile investors, including Founders Fund, Pantera Capital, Republic Digital, Kraken, Galaxy Digital, FalconX, DCG, and Diametric Capital. Notably, Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, also participated in the deal and was named Chairman of BitMine’s Board of Directors. Lee described Ethereum as a “higher beta” asset than Bitcoin, citing its foundational role in stablecoin transactions, decentralized finance (DeFi), and tokenized assets. He referenced comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who projected the stablecoin market could grow from $250 billion today to $2 trillion by 2028, suggesting that Ethereum should benefit from this growth.
Up 1000 pct and more. This is insane. I haven’t looked to see if it can be borrowed but I’m betting not.
Also look at STRK/ STRF/STRD
STRK went up $10 in a minute.
No wonder it was already way up on the day
************Attempt to block the SPAM filter. ********************
(A big day in the SandBox!)
Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 states currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.
************Attempt to block the SPAM filter. ********************
Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!
************Attempt to block the SPAM filter. ********************
BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.
Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.
************Attempt to block the SPAM filter. ********************
From Bondbuyer.com
A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.
Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.
City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.
In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.
************Attempt to block the SPAM filter. ********************
EP-C As a casual observation, who would have guessed that after almost a decade of being kindered, if my math is correct EP-C’s conversion factor into shares of KMI is pretty much right on parity…… EP-C is convertible into .7197 shares of KMI PLUS $28.30 cash per share….. with KMI @ 29.5, you can convert EP-C into KMI shares + 28.30 worth 49.53. SOMEBODY PLEASE CHECK MY NUMBERS cuz this seems too good to be true…. Who’d a thunked EP-C would be anything other than a busted convert to be valued solely by YTM?
2WR Quantum says plus 25.18 so .7197 of 29.35 is say 21.10 so I come up with a total of about 46.29 so with EP-C at $49.00 your losing money to convert right now.
I thought we went over this awhile back and KMI had to be at about $35.00 to be even on the conversion?
Thanks for checking, Charles….. I knew something didn’t feel right and had actually come up with that 46+ number once before, so I’m glad you called me out…. I did double check the most recent 10k to verify that nothing had changed vs QOL, and it hadn’t, but somewhere along the line I misquoted the 25.18 into 28.30… My apologies….. and yes, I too remember the past discussion which is why I thought to see what had changed with KMI common…. hmmmmm radiation treatments might be frying my brain even tho they’re aimed quite a bit, I mean QUITE a bit lower……….
2WR Hope things work out, I like hearing from you. Glad when I heard you moved closer to family.
I’m putting this in Sandbox since the trade is over.
Russell Rebalance resulted in some big wins Friday as PLTR fell $8 in the last 10 minutes, AMZN rallied $5 or $6 .
I did not trade these at all as IB is too inferior to trust.
A friend with a professional system made 6 figures in those 10 minutes with not a lot of risk.
So, the opportunities still exist, but I know my limitations with speed and software….and frankly unless it’s a clear “do” I don’t want “in”.
MY friend is building a program for me to trade imbalances in preferreds that may occur at the end of a quarter. That’s about my speed these days .
As a note, that would be today!
On another note, I was offered an opportunity to buy into the PIPE on NAKA at $5 , with funds due at the end of July. The stock is $14+ and very expensive to borrow. I demurred, probably to my detriment, but I can’t see this not heading closer to $5. This company is becoming a BTC treasury co.
Quiet weekend for most posters here on III land. I expect a quiet week also as a lot of investors will take additional time off.
Interesting article by ADS
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4798018-cef-weekly-review-cef-mergers-keep-coming
The world of CEF is shrinking. The comments were interesting. Muni funds are not doing good so weaker ones being merged. This can have tax consequences as one reader pointed out. Also another term fund to disappear. 20 yrs. ago when I was at my peak working years and fund managers brought these out they sounded like a great idea. Pick a target retirement date and all this money would magically appear. In real life, no one can foresee what market conditions are going to be like when the fund has to liquidate.
Charles, I have my $2 sparklers ready and have been throwing those little things that pop when they hit the ground for a week, to my dogs’ consternation.
It’s a great training device to get them to not follow me around the kitchen.
It, trading is in your blood!
I pass the fireworks displays in Costco selling for big bucks and feel sorry for kids these days that all they get is sparklers and poppers.
Of course I hate to admit after living through 2 fires I am not much for fireworks these days.
(SPAM filter blocked my traditional user name, so plan B.)
(A big day in the SandBox!)
Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 state currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.
Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!
BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.
Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.
From Bondbuyer.com
A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.
Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.
City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.
In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.
(First three attempts to post this got blocked by the SPAM filter for some reason.)
(A big day in the SandBox!)
Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 states currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.
Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!
BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.
Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.
From Bondbuyer.com
A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.
Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.
City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.
In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.
Third attempt to post. . .
(A big day in the SandBox!)
Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 states currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.
Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!
BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.
Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.
From Bondbuyer.com
A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.
Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.
City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.
In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.
(A big day in the SandBox!) 2nd attempt, first one got blocked???
Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 states currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.
Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!
BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.
Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.
From Bondbuyer.com
A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.
Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.
City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.
In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.
(A big day in the SandBox!)
Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 states currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.
Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!
BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.
Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.
From Bondbuyer.com
A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.
Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.
City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.
In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.
Long read from Financial Times that goes to great lengths to explain how/why private equity firms are buying up life insurance and annuity companies. Highlights the increased risk to the insured. Probably worth the read if you are invested in PE owned preferreds/babys. Traces the origins of this to Berkshire using Geico as a source of investable funds.
Excerpts from the article:
After all, it’s not only private equity-sponsored firms that engage in regulatory arbitrage balance sheet optimisation. It’s not unusual for any insurer to choose an affiliate to manage its portfolio. In fact, several of the world’s biggest asset managers are in practice subsidiaries of insurance companies — such as Legal & General’s LGIM, Prudential’s PGIM and Allianz’s Pimco. Lots of US life insurers have been using Bermuda to do funded reinsurance. And it’s not unknown for non-PE firms to pile into private credit, or even to lend to affiliated companies.
But in all these areas, private equity-backed insurers look like outliers.
. . .
PE-backed insurers’ arbitrage involves holding less capital to back risky portfolio investments. As a result, expected losses for PE-backed firms far outpace losses for non-PE counterparts. This creates the possibility that consumers will see harm in the event of a downturn
https://www.ft.com/content/ee40241a-c568-4673-88df-001c0244fb37?shareType=nongift
Everyone has read how higher risk and lower quality holdings were moved over to Bright House financial insurance then spun off and then it went public. How much they have cleaned up is for an expert to decide, but why are looking to sell themselves?
I have the same feelings about Aspen insurance. First it was bought by Apollo and now Apollo has turned around and brought them public again. Apollo still holds a majority of the shares. Do a little window dressing and then sell it to another PE firm.
Aspen is a reinsurer not an annuity company. (From memory, have not read through their latest reports.) I believe Aspen was originally incorporated in Bermuda, which is common for re-insurers.
This is different from a PE taking over a US incorporated life or annuity company, setting up a captive Bermuda reinsurer and replacing good assets with junkier PE deals. There is also a different risk profile.
Annuity companies sell to the general public. Come the inevitable great big crash, the PE sharks gonna walk away richer and the public gonna get to pick up the unpaid bills. And gonna lose the top part of their annuities. A few savvy insurance agents (and just one trade writer) picked up on these PE ownership risks a while ago but nobody big’s been listening.
Have not yet read the FT article. Thanks to Tex2d for posting. JMO. DYODD.
One would foolishly hope the insurer’s rating would suffer. I have no doubt ultimately the US taxpayer will carry the cost,
Thank you Tex, finished reading the whole thing this Sunday morning.
Tex 2,
Thank you so much for this.
I have an annuity with Aspida (A- Best ), which is the Ares affiliate. I was a little antsy buying that one, compared to , say Sammons/North American (A+ Best).
While I never looked at Aspida assets, I knew they couldn’t be as good as Sammons. which achieves an A+ rating by holding $50+ billion in average BBB- debt. I’d wondered on this site what must be in an A- or B++ company if all a A+ company held was BBB- debt. Now I have a better understanding.
I note the #1 company listed in the article as having high non MBS debt is SBLIC . This is nominally run by RBC or an RBC affiliate because I receive quarterly earnings info from RBC on this and they hold a conf call for Security Benefit debt investors.
If anyone is interested there are 2 debt issues, one due next year, and 1 in 2031. The latter is, if I understand it correctly, a surplus capital note, rated BBB-, and trades at slightly under 7% . I only started watching the debt because I had an annuity until last year with Sec Benefit (A- Best).
If you have any annuities , the ft article should be of interest because like FDIC, existing insurers have to fund the guaranty funds of the various states in a failure scenario. Unlike FDIC, you do not get paid anywhere near “immediately” in a failure. The insurer generally goes into rehabilitation and depending on the remaining capital, it could take years to see your funds.
Of note regarding this is that I have a special relationship with the insurance business as my dad has 7+ decades of experience and my 66 yr old brother retired from the P&C business a few years ago.
I recall during the GFC when AIG was in trouble my dad telling me a failure of AIG would bankrupt the 50 state guaranty funds and that would just be the beginning of the disaster.
In typing this response I am going to spend a lot more effort to understand the insurers in which I hold annuities. I have had a practice of thinking they have quite a bit less risk that other types of businesses, particularly those rate A++ like Mass Mutual sub Ascend. Any annuity issuer with a large life exposure has been experiencing excess mortality since Covid…i.e.the mortality rate did not recover to pre-covid levels and nobody knows for certain why.
Ok, too many thoughts unpacked in this comment already. I’ll go back to ignoring reality.
Thanks LT, first thing you have posted outside of options trading that I feel like I can begin to understand!
lt, re “Any annuity issuer with a large life exposure has been experiencing excess mortality since Covid…i.e.the mortality rate did not recover to pre-covid levels and nobody knows for certain why.” You mention annuity issuers, but does this apply across the population in general? I would appreciate more data if you have good sources–thanks.
From December.
https://insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/post-covid-19-excess-mortality-rates-could-remain-high-for-another-decade
Life insurers are not doing well right now because the younger generations are so small in comparison to the boomers, so their payouts compared to Premiums.
It doesn’t help that there are no nationally regulated insurance companies, and state regulators can get overwhelmed in the case of large international insurers (like AIG)
Justin,
Thanks for saving me a post with a link to excess mortality.
And, as my dad said back in 2008, “AIG has so many ceded reinsurance deals with it’s own Bermuda companies, it’s impossible to figure out and I have never been able to do so in 6 decades”
So, I ask myself why I hold annuities. I could just buy individual BBB- bonds and likely get a better return, but I’ve noticed the no-commission annuities not only have the capital buffer of the insurer, but the rates paid are actually higher than many of the insurer’s unsecured debt issues of similar maturity. Perhaps that not a good enough reason. I’m probably exposed to excess mortality of life policies issued by an insurer .
Well, I guess I’d hope the excess mortality comes in a war and not a pandemic, due to the war exclusion in life policies?
From Torsten Slok
“Treasury Issuance Growing”
https://www.apolloacademy.com/treasury-issuance-growing/
“With debt levels growing much faster than GDP, the bottom line is that Treasury issuance will continue to grow faster than the economy, and the most likely outcome is that investors will demand compensation in the form of higher long-term interest rates.”
Slok’s conclusion has been a dominant narrative for quite a while. What does “higher long-term interest rates” mean? Is it an absolute rate or a rate relative to Fed funds (the steepness of the yield curve)? And the usual other factors affect long rates: growth and inflation expectations, plus of late, gov’t rules changes soon to come.
Here’s another recent missive from Slok.
“Record-High Foreign Ownership of the US Equity Market”
https://www.apolloacademy.com/record-high-foreign-ownership-of-the-us-equity-market/
This appears to contradict the narrative that the falling dollar has foreigners exiting US stocks. Seems to me that stronger foreign currencies makes US stocks cheaper. BWDIK?
Bought some WAL-A here. 5 Year reset Sept 2026. If called, will be a big long term capital gain.
Unlikely.
Called or not, I expect price to rise above current value with 4.25% coupon. Using today’s 5YR of 3.82%, yield would be 3.82% + 3.45% = 7.27%, and possibly between 6.5% and 8.0% (+/-) at reset in 1.25 years, so 50/50 chance of being called. At today’s price of $21.97, actual yield range would be 7.4% to 9.1% (+/-). if called, YTC >15%. I’m OK either way, so I keep buying.
Yep, couldn’t have put it better.
Trinity Capital Inc. Prices Offering of $125.0 Million of 6.75% Notes due 2030 – FYI
https://www.bdcinvestor.com/trin/202506/trinity-capital-inc-prices-offering-of-125-million-of-6-75-notes-due-2030/
Thanks, Z.
Note, it’s a $1,000 issue, not a baby bond.
Denomination: $2,000 and integral multiples of $1,000 in excess thereof
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1786108/000121390025058450/ea0247190-01_fwp.htm
I appreciate your timely alert. I think it could get even more bang for the buck by putting it in Reader Initiated Alerts. I tend to look there for these alerts on new issues.
Bought more TRINZ today …..newly issued 6.65% notes due 2030 should make TRINZ (7.875% due 2029) more valuable plus Moody investment grade designation plus a good earnings report
PHOENIX, May 5, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Trinity Capital Inc. (Nasdaq: TRIN) (“Trinity Capital” or “the Company”), a leading alternative asset manager, is pleased to announce that Moody’s Investors Services, Inc. (“Moody’s”) has assigned to the Company a new investment grade long-term issuer rating of Baa3 with a stable outlook.
Based on price action in many assets, my takeaway is the market expects lower long rates. And that’s my big fat guess to rationalize what I’m seeing. Warning: Forecasting rates is not my talent. My talent is making complicated spreadsheets.
If this turns out to be a good guess in time, what would you do now or have you done already?
R2S, my crystal ball is cloudy but I get the feeling the general mood of the market is expecting long rates to go lower. How low and for how long is unknown.
I didn’t own too many floaters to begin with but I have already cut back on the few we do own. Maybe earlier than I should have. One for example is CUBI-F that I locked in capital gains. It has fallen and might be worth circling around to buy again, but I have already repositioned the money. I already own a lot of fixed to reset and may add to ones we already hold. The theory being that similar to insurance is if longer term rates start rising again I’ll be good or even if they don’t they may reset so that their yield will be similar to stocks issued in the future.
I went through my GTC orders today and cancelled quite a few that were way out of the money. I repositioned the money into new GTC orders I’m hoping will snag a few at 7% yield on cost. Hoping and wishing are not good strategies but I would rather get a good deal than regret I overpaid for something.
If the Big Beautiful Bill gets passed and Powell and company decide in July they are seeing weakness in the economy so decide to cut rates then that shoe we talked about may bounce to the moon from all the excitement.
The perpetual and lower yield long term preferred may get a boost and start rising like Tim has suggested.
I don’t like playing this game. I prefer being a buy& hold investor but I realize you have to go with the cycles.
Tomorrow morning, the durable good orders number will be published. Consensus forecast +8.6% MoM compare to -6.3% previously https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86.
I think the big part of the large swing is the on-and-off tariff uncertainty.
An important cyclical sector. We’ll have to see how this settles out in coming months.
released on the 26th–
Up a lot-
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html
Gary, example of what I was saying about the Elephant and the blind men.
Depending on the sector of the economy you are going to have different things happening.
Our FedEx freight driver said he was done with his route yesterday by 1:00 I have never heard him say that before.
But then I have no idea how this compares to other parts of the country.
So even the durable goods report can probably be broken down into different sectors. Car sales are mostly consumer driven. Things like appliances can be influenced by volume of new homes being built etc.
This is why I am a little hesitant about the economy and how I should be investing because I hear personal stories and read about conflicting signals so I wonder how the economy is really doing.
I can’t quite figure it out. The market I understand. It seems to be sitting there like a nervous cat ready to jump one direction or the other. I can deal with that. It’s the economy I am cautious about.
It seems like we’re getting all different signals. Like the old fable of the elephant and the blind men. The economy is a mix of different sectors. I look at the everyday consumer and they are out shopping in force. The feds seem to be spending heavily on the military ( similar to what I remember as a kid in the 70’s) the public sector spending by the government is way down and local and state governments are scrambling to cut the budgets and plug the holes.
I’m talking to customers and commercial construction has slowed way down and residential is steady but slowing down. I drive by the credit union used car lot and it is full.
Customers are not laying off, but not hiring either. The manager or the supervisor are jumping in doing deliveries, loading trucks and doing outside sales. No one is wanting yet to lay off because they put a lot into training and having experienced people.
LEI) for the US ticked down by 0.1% in May 2025 but CEI) for the US inched up by 0.1% in May 2025 to 115.1 (2016=100), after a 0.2% increase in April. The CEI rose by 1.3% over the six-month period between November 2024 and May 2025, more than twice as fast as its 0.5% growth over the previous six months. No recession till both the LEI’ and CEI’s go negative….This is a very slow train reck…? Certainly very slow growth continues……
Regarding FRMEP (7.5% callable on 8/15/25 trading around $25.25-$25.40), does anyone have a sense as to whether it will be called? It’s a perpetual with no variable rate. I have owned it for three years at $25.75 which is a 7.28% yield. Can’t decide whether to sell now or buy more. Any opinions…….
Whidbey: The wife and I enjoy coffee and a scone quite often at one of the Whidbey Coffee locations.
A article on TOWS suggests this bank has underwater low-yielding bonds in its portfolio and uninsured deposits (250K+, i.e. hot money ) Perhaps the bank is planing to do a” clear the decks” dump, fix the balance sheet then buy new stuff, like I think Valley? did.
Otherwise, my rule of thumb applies. My simple minded approach to possible calls is, where is the redemption money coming from? I look for fresh money, new security issues for clues. If the article is near right, this bank looks tight for cash.
I am not in this stock. Can’t offer any above- par buy or sell strategy. I leave you to the traders for advice. Other opinions welcome. JMO. DYODD
I went shopping: TDS-U, ARGD, SYF-A, PFFA, FGSN, MGRE and RITM-C. Ex-div for MGRE is Friday.
A truckload of cash arriving soon from WTFCP/M and UMBFP, not to mention ATCOL, ATCO-D, ATH-C and MBNKP. Can’t spend it fast enough.
r2s, if you have the time could you explain your thoughts behind buying these ? I suppose for capital gains is one reason and current yield.
On the other hand how would you rate them for risk? Are you considering holding long term or just until you have some capital gains.
B&H. Bought for CY. I’m comfortable with the credit risk. TDS is a mystery. These are perps or long-dated BBs that I hope will appreciate if rates fall, although I don’t know where rates are going. I’m not looking to add floaters right now.
Those were the highest CYs on my buy list. Next up, some low 7%ers.
Market reaction to PCE tomorrow will be interesting. The stock indexes are in no-fear mode and overbought again. 30-year t-bond futures also overbought. DXY broke support and is heading down. What’s it all about, Alfie?
Yeah r2s my thoughts exactly. No fear and overbought. I’m waiting for a shoe to drop.
Shoe might go into orbit.
I finally did it… I fat fingered a trade yesterday. I decided to purchase 1,000 shares of RNF-F for 6.8% yield after seeing it come up recently. I entered a limit order in and was surprised when it filled so quickly. It wasn’t until last night when i looked at my account that i realized my mistake. I intended to enter the limit at $21.15 and instead must have entered in $22.15. It filled at $22.12… my bad. For shame…
I guess I hold it until December and then see if I need the loss. Or, I sell now and that way I can hopefully forget about it. Doh…
We’ve all been there and have done that.
mrinprophet, is that even the correct symbol? 4 or 5 years ago I mis-typed by one letter and ended up with an educational software company in Britain. I got hit with a triple whammy of low volume and a charge to buy and sell.
Charles… thanks for pointing out that’s TWO fat fingers… I meant RNR-F. I need to stay off the keyboard for a while.
mrinprophet,
Who is your broker? When i have done that with Fidelity they have usually negotiated a better price. I expect i was just lucky and the market conditions were in my favor.
libero,
How far away from the last trade was yours when Fidelity was able to “negotiate” a bettter price? More than 15%? Regular or extended hours?
thanks
I don’t remember exactly but i have done it a couple of times and it seems to correct. Usually it’s a dollar, ie, 25.x instead 24.x etc. Fidelity will also warn you or just block the transaction if its way out of range.
What brokerage were you using? On Fidelity you get a warning that your bid is above the ask. Schwab doesn’t.
Correct… it was Schwab. My bad… i own it.
Looks like somebody else did the same thing with MITT-P Yesterday. Its interesting because after the fatfinger trade that was $1 higher than the market, it appears the market price was elevated to a new higher level.
Question regarding WTFCP (6.875%) which has been called. How much time do I have to sell this issue before it becomes locked up? I want to leave a few cents on the table for the flexibility of not having my funds tied up. Thanks.
Good question. I can’t find any guidance, and I’ve got too much tied up in WTFCP and WTFCM for them to be locked up for long. Schwab locked up 100 shares of my ATCO-H yesterday even though the call date is July 7. I sold the rest of my ATCO H and D.
goin2cali,
July 10 is the call date for your ATCO-H (and -D).
July 7 is the expected call date for ATCOL.
Here’s the filing for the -D and -H:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1794846/000119312525142742/d28492d6k.htm
Thanks, mbg. That was my understanding as well, But Schwab locked up 100 shares of my ATCO-H on June 23 because ATCO called them. Schwab told me that the payment date is July 10, and that it is continuously callable until that date, although their own site states that July 7 or 10 (depending on where you look) is the “call” date. By “locked up” I mean they are still in my account but I can’t access them, and the ticker has been replaced with “NO NUMBER”.
Statistically, if they locked up 100 shares, then you should own about 10,000 shares overall. If not, then I would think you should question why that many as only about 1% in round numbers of the H shares will remain outstanding after the call.
Goin2cali, this is not and I repeat not advice. But if you have this in a regular IRA and Schwab is showing no Value you can try transferring to a Roth.
Devious, but I like it. But, it’s already in a Roth.
I was holding 800 shares of ATCOprH and Fidelity set aside 792. Is it normal for a company to recall 99% of the outstanding shares? Seems strange to me. Yesterday, I sold the other 8 shares as I fear with such a skimpy number of shares still outstanding, they might delist. Too bad, my cost basis was $15.85 and I was planning on holding forever. To add insult to injury, they’re in a taxable account and I’ll have to pay capital gains tax. I hate when that happens.
Vinny – Great run with your ATCO-H. Cost basis much better than my own.
Per Atlas’ 6-K (thank you mbg), ATCO-H shares “will be redeemed by an impartial lottery in accordance with the procedures of DTC.”
I was left with 9 shares, similar to your experience. A 1% factor applied to
realize final outstanding shares, as 2wr noted.
Not sure what you mean by being locked up…. Call date = 7/15 but you can lock in the coupon and move on if you wish on 7/1 – “The regular quarterly dividends on the Series D Preferred Stock and the Series E Preferred Stock represented by the Depositary Shares will be paid separately on the Redemption Date to holders of record on July 1, 2025 for such dividend payment in the customary manner.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wintrust-financial-corporation-announces-redemption-200500352.html
ON 7/1 or thereafter, you should see the price drop to about 24.95 or .96, so you can expect to be able to sell at that and leave only 5 cents approx on the table. But you’ll never be “locked up.” You’ll be able to buy and sell right up to 7/14.
Thank you for addressing this one, and including usual original source material reference. Helpful to me and probably others.
I don’t think I’ve seen a full call trigger any kind of sequestration/lockup, only seen it on partial calls.
Torsten Slok of Apollo just published his mid-year outlook.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/mid-year-outlook-at-the-crossroads-of-stagflationwhats-next/
IRX, the 13-week t-bill index, dropped below the trading range that started in Dec. IRX is starting to hint at a rate cut (but only one data point).
From Google AI:
“The current market expectation, according to financial futures and experts, is that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates in September. Specifically, the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks market sentiment, indicates a probability of over 90% for a rate cut at the September meeting. Reuters reports that some officials are even suggesting the possibility of a larger, 50 basis point cut, depending on economic data, while others are leaning towards a more gradual approach with a 25 basis point cut. ”
Before the July 30 FOMC meeting statement, there’s PCE, NFP and CPI. If those are tame, you might expect Fed governors to start sounding more dovish prior to the meeting, and then change the language on July 30 to open the door for a Sep cut. That’s a lot of ducks to get in a row.
R2S, I thought this was a decent synopsis for SCE-J, SCE-K and EIX bond at SA written in April. I might take a flyer on J.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4778391-edison-internationals-sce-preferreds-high-yields-from-a-special-situation
Thanks, Randy. The article looks familiar. Since April 25 EIX has fallen back to the lows. At 3.38% of portfolio, SCE-J is the top holding of PFFA. That gives me a substantial side serving of J.
SCE-J (5.375% cum perp IG preferred) is in the home stretch to its Sep 15 call date, after which it floats at 3mL+3.132%. The price behavior of SCE-J (rising) and SCE-M (falling) suggests to me that the approaching call date for SCE-J is affecting price behavior, but at 22.56 price is nowhere near par.
Will SCE-J be called? SCE-H was called in Nov, preventing it from floating at 3mL+2.99%. SCE-J has a bigger spread. If not called, the floating rate would be about 7.7%, well above the current coupon.
With the fire liability still hanging over EIX, the market doesn’t appear to be willing to bet on SCE-J being called on Sep 15. I bought some here and I’ll be happy with the floating rate should that happen. Perhaps price will continue up.
EIX 5.375 perpetual (1000 structure) similar but with conversion/call 3.15.26 at 5yr tsy +4.70 current trading ~92 cusip 281020AS6 At today’s 5yr tsy that would be ~9.45 current on today’s cost. fwiw
Jerrymac, yes this was a gridbird idea, though he said he got out a long time ago. I also bought and thought about getting out recently, but then I was reminded about the reset getting close so now I’m just going to hold, in fact I may end up adding more at this price.
There was a cash tender on that $1000 par preferred (5.375% cum perp, first reset 3/15/26 to 5yy+4.70%) in 2023.
https://newsroom.edison.com/releases/edison-international-announces-limited-preferred-stock-repurchase-plan
With a CY of 5.84% at 92, this preferred is holding up better than SCE-J and may be a better opportunity, same risks.
good comment.. SCE-J/SJNK pair has seen SCE-J underperform since january… as you point out we are not seeing the pull to par
SCE-M/VCLT PAIR trading near all time low (underperform since 12/23)
Here’s another way to look at SCE-J. What current yield is the market accepting right now for SCE-x preferreds? According to SCE-M, the answer is a CY of 8.3%. So if SCE-J floated with a coupon of 7.7% in Sep, it would have a CY of 8.3% at 23.2, just a bit above the current price of 22.59.
Based on that logic, SCE-J isn’t going much of anywhere until something changes. The rally into the call might be largely over. And there’s downside fire-liability risk.
Similar arguments for/against SCE-K, but floating 6 months after J and 0.66% higher yield than J.
I chose J in hopes that something good would happen ASAP, but K has the better numbers. All speculative until the fire investigation concludes. EIX hanging near the low isn’t hopeful.
As someone holding SCE-J, that’s a simple but rather disturbing analysis. Comparing it to N or L makes its prospects look a little better, but it does make a solid case against a quick jump to par.
On the other hand, is it fair to assume a floating rate and a fixed rate with the same current yield should be priced the same? Seems like it depends on which way you think interest rates are likely to be going. Personally I’d be more inclined to be in the floater.
I don’t like RC (terrible chart) and so will continue to avoid RCB and RCC, but…
RCC (5.75% senior BB, callable now) is due on 2/15/26, 238 days from now. At Friday’s closing price of 24.54, my spreadsheet says the annualized YTM is 10%. The next ex-div is July 15. Does anyone expect RC to default on senior debt?
DYODD
There’s a peculiarity here. Interest payment dates are 7/30/25, 10/30/25 and 1/30/26, but the payoff is 16 days later on 2/15/26. I don’t expect you would be paid for those extra days, but I think my spreadsheet assumes you would be, making the YTM overstated.
If you bought on Monday at 24.54 and received $0.36 x 3 = $1.08 in interest and $0.46 in cap gain, total $1.54, over 237 days
YTM = 1.54/24.54 = 6.3%
annualized YTM = 6.3 x (365/237) = 9.7%
A 9.7% YTM is correct if there is no interest paid for the extra 16 days.
“The notes will bear interest at the rate per annum set forth on the cover page of this prospectus supplement from, and including, February 10, 2021, and the subsequent interest periods will be the periods from, and including, an interest payment date to, but excluding, the next interest payment date OR THE STATED MATURITY DATE…” P S-18
2wr-
If I understand that correctly, the YTM is the lower number. Thanks.
One could avoid the whole issue by selling just prior to the final ex-date at, hopefully, par+interest payment, or selling just after at par…theoretically.
By the way I would use https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/priceyieldcalc/ to calculate a 5.75% due 2/15/26 with payment dates of 1/30, 4/30, 7/30, & 10/30, I’d come up with a YTM of 10.149% for a purchase at 24.54 for settlement 6/24. I would put a phony maturity date of 4/30/26 in to get the calc to use the correct amount of accrued and then use 2/15/26 as the CALL DATE, then look at the calculated YTC to be the actual YTM.
I also think it’s worth people’s time, assuming they have MS Excel, to get acquainted with the XIRR function.
It’s a lot easier to directly input the cash flows, no matter how weird they get, without having to bash your head against the wall of some website.
R2S and 2wr,
I make of the prospectus language to mean they will make a final interest payment for those 16 days.
“… the subsequent interest periods will be the periods from, and including, an interest payment date to, but excluding, the next interest payment date OR THE STATED MATURITY DATE…”
The final interest period will begin on 1/30/2026 (the pay date for the last FULL payment) through 2/14/2026 (the day before THE STATED MATURITY DATE).
mbg-
Here’s a version of the quote with the date-refining words “, and including,” and “, but excluding,” removed.
“… the subsequent interest periods will be the periods from an interest payment date to the next interest payment date OR THE STATED MATURITY DATE…”
In that version it’s clear that the interest period extends to the maturity date. You are correct. Thank you.
You bet, r2s. That’s a nice word revision, to make it more easily understandable, yet (importantly) not changing the meaning in the prospectus
Looking for an annuity in an ETF wrapper? Stumbled onto a family of ETFs that might interest you. These ETF’s give a fixed monthly payout over their term with the express goal of achieving a zero NAV at maturity. This is as opposed to annuities offered by insurance company multi-year guaranteed annuity (MYGA) that return your principal in full at the end of the term. These are more similar to immediate annuities. The ETF monthly payouts include a substantial amount of return of capital (ROC) as you would expect. The ones being offered at present only offer US Treasuries as their underlying assets. So, they are as good as buying individual US Treasuries. The difference is once again, if you buy a UST you will receive periodic interest payouts but have to wait until they mature before you get your principal back. Because the underlying assets are UST’s, the returns are low relative to what III’ers are usually aiming for, but these might fit the bill for an extreme risk-averse investor. You have the choice of either holding fixed rates UST’s or TIPS which is kind of interesting. One major advantage of these compared to insurance company annuities is that you can immediately liquidate them on a moment’s notice without an early withdrawal penalty. Obviously, since their NAV is dropping every month, you would take a capital loss.
The company, LifeXfunds dot com, offers a range of maturities from 10 years up to 40 years. The only caveat I see is that most of the funds do not have enough assets to be viable long term. Only one fund, LDDR, the 10 year maturing in 2035 ,currently has enough assets to survive the full 10 years. It is not clear what will happen to the other funds, which in many cases have less than Grid pocket change, aka $1 Million. Will they keep them open with expense ratios capped for the next 40 years? Unknowable, but clearly, they are counting on them to keep growing in assets.
We do not own any of these funds in any account, nor have any relationship with the fund company.
Thanks for the heads up on that. It’s a clever idea and I hope it works.
Tex, aren’t these subject to rate fluctuations?
Corebridge (AIG) MYGA’s (American Pathway Advisory annuity product) can be liquidated without a surrender charge at any time. It’s subject to a market value adjustment due to changes in rates—either up or down.
https://crbgdoc.jaggedpeak.com/getDocument/?email=defalt%40crbg.com&Source=default&catalogID=AGL14480
No kidding. An non-leveraged ETF that went through a reverse split…
You don’t see that every day..