I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
TPGXL ….. payments are interest, but now I’m reading too late, the interest is from TPG Operating, which is a Limited Partnership. So, I bought only 100 shares in a taxable brokerage account, looks like I should be getting a K1???? Anyone know? Appreciate any inspight!
Create an account here once u know if you should get a k1. Anyone who owns MLPs should know of this website and how useful it is.
https://www.taxpackagesupport.com/
But are you sure it is an mlp?
its VERY useful and often the only site where you can get K-1’s before they are mailed
Fan, According to their IR page FAQ, they send out a 1099. There is no reference to a K-1 that I can see, without contacting IR directly.
Thanks to everyone! Fan
Bloomberg just did an interview with Scott Bessent, Nothing exciting. Bessent was calm and collected. He sees no evidence of foreign dumping of Treasury bonds. (I agree – looks like the usual suspects: hedge funds surprised by margin calls unwinding their over-leveraged positions.) He is not worried about the dollar as a safe haven. He meets weekly with Jay Powell. He’s working on tax reform next. Etc.
Of interest – the location of the interview: Argentina. Supposedly to celebrate an IMF deal. Which coincidentally may squeeze China out as an Argentine lender. Bessent dropped a comment about not wanting to let China do to South America what it did to the African continent, mentioning “rapacious” Chinese taking away “mineral rights.”
Argentina is a key Ag trading partner for China. China resumed Argentine wheat purchases in December 2024. China planned for the 2025 US tariffs by greatly reducing US soy purchases over several years while increasing its Ag buys from Argentina and Brazil. (FWIW, Mexico is a large US wheat importer and Argentina is a producer. If trade wars / retaliatory tariffs expand, Mexico may need a new supplier. I haven’t bought country ETFs, but I have looked at Argentina & Brazil as trade war winners.)
Long Ag in general and CHS. IMHO, CHS remains in the spotlight. It is on a Chinese banned companies list. I’ve lost track of tariffs on Canadian crude, which is used by one of CHS refineries. Higher input costs put CHS at a competitive disadvantage. Proposed US port / docking fees on Chinese ships could increase grain shipping costs for farmers. A government bailout for farmers is expected if needed. Watching. Not panicking yet. JMO. DYODD.
Bessent on Trade Talks, Powell Future, Argentina, Dollar
Warning – YouTube has annoying ads -Skip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuNo6fhuRpk
Not worried about the dollar as a safe haven—-what else is he going to say??
Of course he’s worried. We need foreign governments and companies buying our Treasuries.
The argentine peso is in a period of stability. It was 1250 when I visited BA last year and it’s 1250 today (dolarhoy.com). There’s a piece in Spanish on that site where Milei talks about possible dollarization of the Argentine economy. I don’t see that…economy is too big for that
On another note I covered the shorts in PFF, MUB, HYG last week and went to long puts on MUB going out past the date we are likely to know the budget deal. I’m hedging against change in the muni exemption. I did the same with PFF puts. I used the profits from the shorts to buy the puts
They may not be selling them, but not buying new ones as the old ones mature accomplishes the same thing.
What the heck-
ETRADE’s quote page with div, ex date, etc:
RIV.PR.A
RIVERNORTH OPPORTUNITIES FD IN 6% PFD SER A
$23.03+0.39 (+1.72%)
Bid x Size
$21.63 x 10,000
Ask x Size
$23.40 x 68,600
*************
But- on trade page, it’s correct:
RIV.PR.A RIVERNORTH OPPORTUNITIES FD IN 6% PFD SER A
Last price x size / Exchinfo_outline
$22.69 x 100 N up0.0500up (0.22%)
Bid x size
$22.67 x 100 V
Ask x size
$22.87 x 500 Z
Volume
4.81
**************
Schwab & Fido:
$22.69 / 1 XNYS
Bid/Size 22.67 /1 IEGX
Day Range 22.69 – 23.35
Change Day Change +0.05 ( 0.22% )
Ask/Size 22.87 /5 BATS
Etrade’s quotes can’t agree internally on B/A or high / low for the day.
Fido has last at 22.99 on time and sales when the reg quote says 22.69
AND- in the search function for RIV-A, t- instead of the actual up 5¢ to 22.69, they have 22.69 extended hrs -1.24 (5.18%)- but Marketwatch.com show no
after hrs action- they do tend to show if there is any.
Confusing- if they aren’t showing an after hrs last price, but can show how much it changed.
NYC triple tax exempt (for NY residents) housing bonds AA+ long end offered through brokers 2064 at 5.45% TAX FREE
No, the bond market isn’t broken at all…..
During GFC I recall buying AAA munis at like 6% yields while UST was like at 2%. In a crisis liquidity and safety is everything and yields dont really matter..
yeah, but were they really AAA+? the GFC inflated lots of ratings – that’s what caused it, in fact, no?
If you remove health and education the amount of municipal that failed to pay is ridiculously low. I don’t think the GFC shenanigans really stepped into municipal land that much based on a few books about municipal that I read written before and after the GFC. This specific topic was not even discussed at all. Only warnings about the 2 weakest sectors of muni. Even those 2 sectors have low failed rates but obviously a wee bit higher then other sectors. Seems the ratings were reasonably accurate over the decades.
Person & His work who’s trade policy is implemented by Trump – chairman of economic advisors Stephen Miran . Video made by a couple of Canada professors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsUARktJGes
Bloomberg headlines:
“Lutnick Says Tariff Pause on Phones, Computers Is Temporary”
““NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook,’” Trump said in a social media post Sunday.”
I certainly feel on the hook. Rhetoric unchanged.
I don’t like that Lugnuts guy. What’s he hiding behind that stupid beard?
Nothing coming from the White House is honest. MM still yielding over 4% is ok with this chicken
I am with you KingCash.
Regards re weekend postings . . . Great comments / views.
read an interesting back page comment in Barrons….. “Updated Investing Playbook for the New Geopolitics ”
Snapshot bullets ….current events symptoms of new contest for global leadership ….reshuffle of global order, econ & political.
China, BRICS…..
Past distinctions between developed and emerging markets becoming blurred. …
Trade is growing faster within coalitions than between them ….
I did not come away negative on the U.S. proven historical abilities, just that the old USA vs China is not the new picture.
Author for Barrons was…..Maria Vassalou
Our I I I posters comments are good relaxed food …. w/o the minute to minute S&P 1% moves !!!
Stormy Westie with a gloomy prognostication……..
The US had world-beating returns in its stock and bond markets from 2022 to 2024.
Investors from all over the world poured money into the US, helping to prolong the bonanza.
In 2025, the reverse has been true.
US stock and bond performance trails most foreign capital markets.
Foreign investors are taking their funds back.
The dollar has weakened against the Euro, Swiss Franc, Deutschemark, and Yen.
US long-term bond yields are rising, German falling.
I’ve long held a personal view about emerging market economies.
When they enjoy strong capital inflows, their economies boom.
When the capital inflows slow, their economies are hit hard.
If investors try to repatriate funds – economic serious problems result.
Why will the US be any different?
It is clear foreign investment is leaving the US in ever-increasing amounts.
There is bound to be an impact on our investment, interest rates, and stock market liquidity.
US Credit risk spreads have jumped 140 bps in the last 40 days.
Westie is gloomy..
I still hold on my prefs and my low P/E commons, despite their growing red results. At least the div yields have higher numbers as the security prices drop.
My few buys are gold.
I am leaving maturities and increasing bond calls in Cash.
4+% returns are look pretty favorable for now.
Westie-
Speaking of capital flows, I took a good look at DXY and yen and euro futures today. Both of the latter look to have bottomed and are trending up. DXY made a 3-year low and broke support. Could be headed to 92, although who knows?
Westie be careful with gold, you could be late to the party trying to build a position. I’m not savvy when it comes to individual stocks in international markets, but there are a few bloggers over on SA like Ian Belzak? And the investment Doctor. There’s a few others but I haven’t followed them constantly. Problem with international stocks they normally pay out bi-annually.
Be good I think to find an ETF that does international currencies or inflation trades.
Thanks Charles
Totally agree on gold caution.
Started buying GLD and GDX in 23.
Added through 24.
GDX position up 37% from cost, GLD 32%.
Both substantial size.
Additions just pittances for the reasons you cite.
Am well aware of Buffett’s: “Sell when others are greedy, buy when others are fearful.”
Not ready to start selling just yet, but bet I will when I think the market has fully digested the factors I’m gloomy about.
And…. I like the hedge. When SPY and my Commons drop – almost all the time GDX and GLD rise.
Is Westie related to George Costanza?
Gary
Am I related to George Costanza?
I guess the only way you could tell for sure is to look into the size of our respective wallets.
Gary thinks you could be correct – although his might be cold and wetfrom a swim.
I figure my job as an investor is to read the room, the room being price trends in various asset classes, the narratives being floated in the press, and statements and actions by government officials. I need to be dispassionate in this effort. Markets and people are full of emotions; I don’t want to overlay mine on top of those.
I see a trade war with China. The outcome of wars is unpredictable, and therefore as a policy tool should be used as a last resort. That is not the current situation. Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan were lesson enough for me that it is a mistake to believe politicians know what they’re doing when it comes to war.
Chanos is well-known.
https://x.com/RealJimChanos/status/1911048638576415097
“What’s even worse (and we all know there will be more exemptions) is the message this sends to the US small-mid businesses that have their products manufactured abroad and won’t get that same relief.”
Chanos nailed one of my concerns. My daughter consults for a small business that designs and sells small electronic gizmos. All of the manufacture and assembly is done in China with the help of a local coordinator. It’s all efficient and high quality and will never be done here. This business, along with many others, will be punished for doing what Americans do well: invent and design.
I’m glad to see the smartphone exemption because it means someone got through to Trump. However, playing favorites is just another way to create havoc in the economy. If the (illogical) logic of the exemption is to allow time for industries to move production here, then that should apply evenly. And any industry which will never move here and would be undesirable here should be exempted. I know I’m asking for too much. Small steps…
R2S……. I read a lot on the Internet plus the Wall Street Journal every day. I read story after story of small private companies (say 100 employees or less) that are getting devastated by the tariffs. If this keeps up the number of bankruptcies and closures is going to be very high. The big publicly held companies most can survive due to deep pockets and political access. Small companies are still the driver of our economy along with the individual consumer. Both are getting killed by the shallow understanding of the global economic scene by politicians and much of the general public.
I’ve been reading/viewing similar stories…about Chinese companies. Not in the WSJ of course, but from a host of different trans-border e-sellers, factory owners, and shipping logistics specialists. The US tariffs are putting a real and immediate hurting on an already fragile Chinese export economy that relies on US consumers.
The bad news for the Chinese is that the rest of the world doesn’t want a flood of their cheap products/raw materials either, so it will be up to their domestic market to absorb the excess. No good options for the Communist government it seems.
Dj
And the BDC’s……?
Rock2stocks,
I’ve been thinking about the tariff exemptions, and I’m wondering how we will react if the market sells off instead of what looks like an obvious rally scenario. I’m starting to think that’s what indeed happens. Sell bonds, sell stocks.
The technical indicators of bearishness don’t mean much, because they don’t indicate anyone is positioned for a decline. Virtually all investors are net long equities or debt…always. So, even more than bullish indicators existing while stocks rally for months or years, bearish opinions are only an indicator of a bottom or nearly so if if the majority of sellers have acted. Even Cramer is telling people to HODL (I love the BTC terms).
That’s just a few thoughts. Frankly, I am looking for a decent arbitrage and the RKT/ COOP arb spread went to $38= (11X RKT+$2)=1 COOP during the tariff collapse before dropping back to about $21.50 late last week. That’s a great example of natural selling overwhelming arbs and forcing liquidation of leveraged positions.
lt-
Just as a guess AAPL, semi stocks, and some others up sharply on Monday. SPX and NDX too. Expiry week. What I really want to know is where will the 10-year yield be at the end of the week? Are there going to be more exemptions and concessions to reality? If trade with China remains on the chopping block, then nothing has really changed.
One of my favorites on finTwit Brandon Carl said last week to watch for a call from Tim Cook to Trump. He said Cook is the best there is on supply chains. Looks like that call took place. In another tweet Carl asked what it would take to recreate the entire supply chain for iPhones in the US. It would take years and make iPhones very expensive. It will never happen.
Rocks, Thanks for the translation.
Sorry Rocks, X is a fail for me. I read and listen to enough opinions. I grew up on the 30 second commercials on the radio and TV.
I don’t need more of that nonsense.
Twitter and other social platforms just allowed the meaningless babble to become like standing next to a roaring waterfall. The amount of water rushing by creates a deafening sound that means nothing.
Come on, you have to sign up to read that and it offers you the opportunity to follow Elon Musk?!
OT – but may be of interest to non-social-media-savvy retirees here – Wired, a tech magazine, reported that Social Security was moving its official public notices from the official government website over to X aka Twitter. This made me nervous.
Social Security later issued a “This is false” denial, but — got to love this — Social Security posted its denial on X aka Twitter instead of the official government website. LOL. https://x.com/SocialSecurity/status/1910841666870653128
“Who are you gonna believe? Me or your own eyes?” – Chico Marx, 1933. JMO. DYODD.
Charles-
My feed on Twitter has been curated down to a dozen of so experts that I follow. It’s informative and efficient. I get very little garbage.
Charles,
While I agree with you on Twitter, I’m told by a crypto trading firm programmer that X is the main news source. It’s sort of the FT/WSJ of the crypto world, but these guys can’t seem to accept the idea that legitimate journalists with a reputation to lose are not first reporting their findings on X .
.
AFAIK
Howard Marks. Must read.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again
“The problem is that in the real world, and especially in economics, there are second- and third-order consequences that must be considered.
Not only are repercussions often significant, but they’re also unpredictable.”
IMO, Trump anticipated a different reaction to his initiatives from markets, the Fed, and affected countries. The fallout has been Navarro getting the boot (thank goodness) and Bessent stepping in as primary advisor. Some sanity has emerged: the 90-day delay and backing off on smart phones, etc. Now it’s possible the economy and the RoW won’t be driven off a cliff. More needed.
R2S—good article! Thanks for posting it.
Rocks, Big thanks for sharing this with us. I sincerely mean that.
The clarity of the observations and how it was presented are outstanding.
I like the comparison to Brexit and the self inflicted damage to GDP, standard of living, morale, and alliances. Very appropriate
A very astute article by Marks. However he assumes POTUS wants to act in the national interest, whereas it is obvious POTUS acts in his own interest, loves chaos and profits from it. All may profit that play this game alongside POTUS. Investors in preferred stock? Probably not.
After reading the article on my phone I came away with the emotion that the author is pessimistic about change. I can only imagine he is supremely comfortable in his 10 million dollar home with no thought of day to day expenses allowing him to pen such articles.
I need to read it again but that is my first reaction. That the status quo has been wonderful for him but I have to wonder how much time he spends with fly over country dead as a door nail main st with a dollar general left on it. I am open to ideas that make people uncomfortable just to see what happens. At least we learn something from it.
Fc, I imagine this dude Marks speaks for most people that are/were supremely comfortable. They will be the same people whining about $50 trillion debt in 5 yrs time pining for tax increases while their stashes are all safety tucked away in their tax havens.
Fc just shaking my head. No one is making anyone stay in a town with a dollar general and 3 bars. Everyone has a opportunity to go and better themselves somewhere else. Nothing Trump can do will bring back towns where the coal is gone, the oil and gas is gone or the gold mine is played out.
Your argument that Mark’s doesn’t want the status quo to change could apply to the others who don’t want to change and expect prosperity to come to them.
On Sun NBC’s Meet The Press, Navarro kept denying the exemptions- saying that there were ‘absolutely no exemptions’ to the tariffs now. He quickly went into a long spiel about chips, aluminum, copper, etc- trying to get her off her- he say ‘potato/potahto as an answer. But- he has the old mantra down pat, over & over: -“They ( the entire galaxy) have been taking advantage of the US for years- worth trillions…etc”
And he wouldn’t comment on being sidelined now. As a purported ‘moron’, he even had good things to say about Musk.
What a mess.
Everyone enjoy your weekend.
I need to get out and graft some fruit trees if its not too late already.
I have some low ball GTC bids out there and a few sell orders on some that turned out to be mistakes on my part. Buys that are more volatile then I expected and this past week proved they have more downside to go. If we have a rally next week I hope to let them go and maybe re-enter at a lower point.
The administration has decided to exempt smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives, computer processors, and memory chips from reciprocal tariffs. I may have lost track but I believe the only country still getting these tariffs is China. Good news for Apple. Does the 10% baseline tariff apply? I would think so but you have to decide for yourself.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-from-reciprocal-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas
Also being floated is the idea of exempting some items from the 10% baseline tariffs.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/trump-floats-possible-exceptions-to-10-baseline-tariff
Good news for inflation. Investor confidence in buying our T-BIlls. Time will tell.
What I wrote a friend yesterday:
“Mkt looks like it’s expecting good news over the weekend or very soon. If not, the bear flag kicks in.”
And here it is. Someone knew…big surprise. Unfortunately, the auto tariffs are still on. What’s next?
Unless we have deflation , I don’t see how one can go wrong buying 30 yr tips at 2.70 + over inflation. They were briefly in the 2.90’s today. I’ll keep buying if they keep falling. I don’t have much yet. I think the 10 year tips got to 2.50 ish.
Perhaps I don’t understand tips as well as I think.
> Perhaps I don’t understand tips as well as I think.
Ha, I’ve been tempted to buy them too until I realize I don’t understand them well enough.
Do you have to do OID’s on Tips???
Jack,
As far as I know you are taxed currently on the increase in principal and that’s OID. I’ve only held these a few days and I hold them in my mark-to-market trading account , where the increase in market value occasioned by increasing principal balance from the inflation adjustment would get taxed as ordinary income anyway.
I really don’t get why the government want to make this so difficult
MOVE index of treasury market volatility from 2002 weekly. Like VIX
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pXmQGfrB/
I’m looking at the page for bank preferreds. Aren’t several of the Morgan Stanley preferreds incorrectly listed as floating? I was looking at MS-K. But there were several where MS determined that when LIBOR was eliminated, they would not switch to SOFR. Instead, they would remain fixed.
MS-K was among them. Also series E, F, I and M. Is there a way to report this?
Here is a link to the press release:
https://www.morganstanley.com/press-releases/replacement-rate-for-u-s–law-governed-u-s–dollar-libor-linked-
FWIW- It might be good to start thinking of RMDs and any conversions of losers that could recover after all this turmoil is over ( if conversions are something worth doing). Of course, first you have to do the RMD (taxable), then you can do conversions and pay tax on those too.
Gary, I am no tax expert but my wife wanted to do a large withdrawal for a major purchase. Just in case someone was thinking of moving a larger amount. I was at the tax accountant yesterday and mentioned it to her. She said this might show as income and raise your cost of Medicare insurance as that is based on your income.
Someone here might know and can maybe clarify that.
The monthly medicare payment can get really steep with higher incomes. They charge an IRMAA fee at higher levels. This is what I found,
The 2025 Medicare Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) will affect high-income Medicare beneficiaries. Those with income over $106,000 (for single tax filers) or $212,000 (for joint filers) will pay a monthly surcharge on top of regular Part D premiums. The IRMAA uses a sliding scale with five income brackets, capping at $500,000 for single filers and $750,000 for joint filers.
By the way, capital gains and gains on house sales also can trigger this.
Don,
Nasty nasty surprise in IRMAA is that it is a “cliff” tax. They talk about it as a sliding scale, but if you go one penny over the income limit of a bracket, you pay the whole “penalty” for that bracket. Here are the brackets:
Single____________________________ Married Filing Jointly________Part B Premium
Income $106,000 or less______________ $212,000 or less __________ $185
Above $106,000 up to $133,000 Above $212,000 up to $266,000 $259
Above $133,000 up to $167,000 Above $266,000 up to $334,000 $370
Above $167,000 up to $200,000 Above $334,000 up to $400,000 $480.90
(inserted underscores to try to get table to format better. If anyone has a better way, let us know)
Reading HHS data they put out awhile ago: In the top two Medicare brackets the taxpayer is paying for 80 and 85% of the cost of delivering Medicare.
If the taxpayer also owes NII tax , the TP is likely paying for over 100%.
So much for being on the government dole.
Charles M…… A little surprised you weren’t familiar with IRMAA. I’ve been converting my IRA to a Roth for years and have to carefully estimate how much to convert each each year to avoid paying extra for Medicare. My goal was to convert all of the IRA to a Roth by the time RMDs start, but I’m not going to make it by maybe three years. The RMD calculation is small for the first few years and I will most likely just take the small hit. If SS becomes not taxed that will increase my Roth conversion amount considerably amd I might make it sooner. Just for giggles this year I changed the SS income to one dollar in TurboTax and got quite the reduction in tax owed. Have a hard time believing they would change SS taxation by completely eliminating it. My guess is it Will be tied to income if implemented.
Coming port tariffs on Chinese made ships are not getting enough attention in the financial media. US Trade Representative got huge negative feedback about how crippling these fees(500K to $1.5 mil) would be and said it was revising them. The Jones act proved over a century the U.S. is not competitive enough in shipbuilding but this administration wants to bring shipbuilding back. I don’t know why any Chinese made ships would come to port to pick up U.S. grain with those fees. There are yet more ways the U.S. can shoot its self in the foot. Be careful with your shipping holdings or anything relies on ships delivering goods.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/exclusive-us-considers-adjusting-port-fee-plan-for-chinese-vessels-after-pushback-sources-say/ar-AA1CAaFN?ocid=BingNewsVerp
Docking fees, not tariffs.
WSJ article
https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/trump-administration-revises-port-fee-plan-to-soften-blow-to-u-s-exports-603aa923?mod=livecoverage_web
Not discussed in the news is the real possibility that because of the fees, Chinese ships might not visit the smaller ports like Portland or Tacoma which will drive up the transport cost for those regions. Not clear if the hub ports can handle the traffic. Long Beach during COVID had horrendous backups. This is just to say there will be a lot of knock on effects even if USTR reduces the fees.
h-ster, I had been looking at SEAL-PA but no more. Had held FLNG in the past but bailed on it too. Never got into CLCO for the same reason, too much NG being produced. It’s a buyers market and the can buy elsewhere not just the US. Don’t know if you noticed, but WDS sold 40% ownership in the liquidfication plant they are building in LA to same company that owns the shipping..
Things are just too unsettled to know where to invest on anything related to imports and shipping, including extending that to ship by rail and warehousing. Then secondary shipping like UPS, FEDEX, Old Dominion. Even Amazon will have a slowdown and need less drivers.
Beginning to wonder about the holiday season and all sales related to it 6 months from now. All that product has to be ordered now from overseas manufacturing. How do businesses even plan and figure sales and pricing?
WMT, TGT, COST, AMZN the strong will survive but …?
Charles- LNG in a hurricane swampland is crazy dangerous. So dangerous.
The giants will survive. AMZN survives on it’s cloud business profits. There are too many businesses(esp. small/medium) that cannot absorb these tariffs. The mental pain that small business owners must be going through right now dwarfs what I am feeling right now agonizing over treasuries. I’m sure there’s more knock on effects that are yet unknown that will hemorrhage our economy.
De minimis gets nixed May 1 so there is still time to make some last chance Christmas gifts. (I bought this intricate trout shaped stainless steel flask for my husband who is a fisherman. He said it looked laser welded. This is the most intricate stainless steel item I own. The cost- $5.50. Even with 145% tariff, it will still be a pretty good price.)
I’m posting this link for the chart of federal spending in recent years, not for McClellan’s comments. The chart speaks for itself. You can add your own interpretation and your guess as to what comes next.
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/first_effects_of_doge_spending_cuts/
Rocks I read his article. Goes on to say spending cuts are not good for the economy and the market.
On another note. Heard on CBS radio yesterday with the cut in USAID 3,300 medical workers are not getting paid fighting the current outbreak of Ebola in Africa The US air doctor in charge was fired. The last outbreak in the US was 2014. 2 out of 11 people died. Almost a 20% death rate. A larger outbreak would overwhelm medical services.
Where is the EU and where is China in fighting Ebola? Per Chat GPT “As of April 2025, specific figures on the number of medical workers actively combating the current Ebola outbreak in Africa are not publicly available.” Per Gemini, “Over 2000 health workers were trained during the previous Sudan virus outbreak in Uganda (ended in January 2023)” . It is a world problem. How many medical workers are fighting Ebola in Africa, and how many of these are paid by us?
The outbreak is minor right now and we were just throwing money at it. All I am saying is AI isn’t perfect. We need to double check our facts.
Hopefully we are prepared if the problem grows bigger.
McLellan is a master of finding correlation and then making up causation. This chart is an example of that. The causation he cites has multiple errors.
To begin with, Congress does not print money and increasing federal spending does not increase the amount of money. What increasing federal spending does is take money that would have otherwise gone toward private investment and consumption and instead use it in the government. It doesn’t take an economics PhD to realize that under most circumstances, this does not lead to higher growth.
Landlord, I was thinking about increased government borrowing that leads to spending the money borrowed. Right now the federal government has increased spending on military. A lot of private sector jobs created and a lot of private sector companies are benefiting from that government spending. This in turn leads to the trickle down affect of the private sector spending their dollars benefiting other companies and jobs.
But not everyone wants to be in manufacturing even if there is the opportunity as Scott Bessent suggested we fire the paper pushers and they will fill these jobs.
This is a complicated puzzle that I don’t have any answers for. But I enjoy a civil conversation with you and others on here.
Ten-year treasury yield to 5%? Printing 4.5% today.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7hfFatVd/
Stock indexes acting as if there’s a bull case. I don’t see it without human intervention, as just happened.
Rocks, Just sitting back and watching today. No popcorn, I am saving room for a fish fry the St Michael’s order of the Italian Catholic federation is putting on this afternoon at a local church.
My bet is people are selling, not wanting to hold through the weekend. It’s amazing watching the index’s change from red to green and back so quickly.
The buyers are thinking they are getting a deal but the sellers come right back. My two cents is we end the day down.
Wouldn’t be surprised we see 3,300 on gold today or Monday.
The 1970s. A time where the OPEC monopoly forced prices higher and higher, driving inflation up. The economy went into a recession, and the earnings per share for companies fell, driving the stock market lower. A simultaneous recession with inflation.
The 2020’s. A time where tariff mandates forced prices and inflation higher. The economy headed into a recession, and the earnings per share likely to fall, driving the stock market lower. We are on an express train headed for simultaneous inflation with a recession. Perhaps, the savings grace is no price spiral if we stop here and other countries stop as China just did.
This is not the best of times.
The verbiage for Washington in the 1970s was something to the effect that Americans need to adjust to a new world and we will be better off in the future. The verbiage in 2025 is that there will be a transition cost, but things will be better in the future.
We will all believe what we want to believe. I will argue with nobody’s beliefs. or views.
Steve, In 2021 I waited 6 months to get my F150 due to the parts shortage. Maybe they will go back to making a pickup truck without all the bells and whistles to cut costs and move them out the door. I don’t even use half of what is on the dashboard or steering wheel.
Charles,
I just traded in my 2009 Chevy Silverado 1500 4×4. I loved that truck only had 75,000 miles on it, but I knew what every knob or button on the dash did.
Now with my new truck driving is a distraction due to so many buttons and knobs and options. The turn signals no longer make any clicking sound, so I sometimes drive for miles with them on after a y turn. There might be a volume option for the turn signals, but I can’t find it.
Jaberstein, You need to have your wife riding co-pilot so she can remind you to turn them off. The joke of why do you always see 3 old ladies in a car. One to look ahead and one to look left and right.
Seriously, bit of advice. My truck has less than 13,000 miles on it because I like driving my 2004 Ranger. With all the electronics you have to drive at least 60 or 80 miles every 3 or 4 days or you run the battery down letting it sit.
A lot of the electronics are still on even with the truck turned off and just sitting there and they drain the battery. The electronics can start acting up with low battery power.
I was told to drive it more or put it on a trickle charger or upgrade and get a marine battery.
Charles,
Not sure I would use a marine battery, but at least make sure you have an absorbed glass-mat (AGM) battery. They cost a bit more, but are well worth it. definitely help with electronic “vampire” drain.
I still drive my almost 20 year old F-150. Still doing fine. Ford replaced the engine in it (long block) about 5 years ago. It has been in a couple minor accidents (other people’s fault) in the last 5 years so it has lots of new(-ish) panels/doors and looks pretty good.
I have a solar panel charger/controller one of my friends made me years ago. I put it on my truck when I will be gone for a few weeks to keep the battery up. saves running cords out to the truck.
When I am going to be gone for more than a few weeks, I also have one of my buddies come drive my truck around for a day just to keep the fluids/lubricants moving. I do the same with my 1993 pickup I keep in AZ/NM, and my 1973 I keep in Northern Utah (I still own every pickup I ever bought). Nice to have a truck in place when I fly in and have to go into rough country.
I am not looking forward to buying a new pickup. Too much now runs on touch screens/multi-function controls. I like being able to adjust/engage things by touch without having to take my eyes off the road to at a screen for many seconds to navigate screens.
No joke.
I had a 2006 Colorado that had a CD player. 121K miles.
Made it 18 years in VT weather before the frame had holes that would not pass inspection.
Upgraded to a used 2021 Tacoma. I’ll have to admit, replacing the CD player with the back up camera is nice.
PN, I try to force myself to keep using the mirrors and not rely on all those electronics. They are nice but expensive to repair and don’t work that well in fog or rain. It is nice having this tech in parking lots though when a careless driver zips around behind you.
Oh, that is another reason I like my 2004 is the CD player. Don’t believe the reviews on Amazon on CD players that say they work with the Bluetooth in your vehicle. They don’t.
So trying to make some lists here with credit under pressure.
What are everyone’s favorite QDI qualified securities at the current moment?
I have my tax-deferred accounts pretty much allocated to no-qdi stuff, so looking at my taxable accounts for opportunities. I do own SPNT-B as someone mentioned. I also own some BNJ, BIPI, BEPI/H, MS-E, CODI-B, but looking for more options to consider if we continue to selloff.
Thanks, Z
CTA.PB
MET.PF
ALL.PI
ATH.PD
Most likely never to be called. I use them as sort of annuities without the fees.
Maybe look at the illiquid utilities.
Do the two CHS items below $25. work.
Have been adding to CHSCM… and CHSCN $24.40 ~ $24.60 area .
Ex June 13
Jim I added the CHSCN yesterday and now the water level is up to the gunwales. Hope I don’t get swamped and sink.
Look at the CMS baby bonds.
CMSA, CMSC and CMSD. There is a CMSC preferred too. Be sure you don’t get the ticker mixed and buy the preferred if you want the baby bond. If you choose to buy them at all.
Lots of others to look at out there I am sure.
If you are looking to boost your returns, I picked up a bunch of SCE-M over the last while below $23. QDI, callable 11/28, paying over 8%.
Company is a California Utility and may have been involved in the LA fires (haven’t seen anything definitive yet). However, other Utilities in CA have caused huge fires, burned entire towns, killed hundreds of people and have even been convicted of criminal offenses, yet they have come out fine. PCG went through bankruptcy twice and their preferreds actually went up.
CA is a strange place for utilities. The state gov. goes to extraordinary lengths to protect the utilities because “we can’t let them go under and leave people without power”. Whole CA state gov is firmly in the utilities’ pockets.
Personally I hate my utility (PCG) in Silicon Valley, but I hold a lot of their preferreds (and flip among them). Might as well make some money from them.
Private that was one I was buying last week. Already holding but added more to a different account. Now in a Roth at 22.75
So much for foreign currencies falling- Yen, Pound, Loonie all increasing in value, and the Swiss franc doing the best.
Friday am on Bloomberg interview … Tony Crescenzi ( PIMCO ) , also added comment on foreign holders as big buyers of our Tsys, and with their dollar holdings declining. . . less incliened to increase US Tsy bidding.
Think I got his quick comment correct.
Got my annual reminder from QOnline- this is promising, if they come thru with the yield stuff:
We are currently planning many new enhancements to the website including stock market information, individual security quotes, and important investment calculations based on security pricing including yield to maturity, yeild to call, yield to worst, and other important investment parameters.
Trump needs to make peace with China to avoid a world-wide recession. Cooler heads in both countries need to prevail against their headstrong leaders. Both need a face-saving compromise so each can declare a victory of some sort.
China needs our agricultural products and Trump’s “red” farmer supporters need to be saved from going belly-up. We don’t want China turning elsewhere. The U.S. needs China to buy our Treasuries so the debt can be refinanced at an acceptable level. If our tariffs severely restrict China’s economic growth, they won’t have the money to buy our Treasuries. It even might force China to be net sellers of our Treasuries.
At the end of the day, the entire world’s standard of living will be lowered if a reasonable deal (for both sides) cannot be agreed upon. JM2C
Hi Whidbey,
Not looking to make this more political, but we have a schoolyard bully (Trump) against a tyrant (XI), both of whom are used to getting their own way. Neither feels he can back down – although (IMHO) Xi has the far weaker hand. He is putting on a fierce face, but doesn’t have the resources to last very long in a trade war without disastrous domestic problems.
As far as US needing China to buy treasuries – not so true any more. China owned about 2.5% of US gov.’s debt at end of 2024 (760B), down by about half from its $1.4T holdings about 10 years before. They appear to be slowly reducing holdings because they need the cash (not to make a political statement).
note that the press makes a big deal about China being a “big” holder because they are the second largest foreign gov. holder (behind Japan).
Interesting factoid, but put it in perspective:
foreign govs hold about 22% of US debt (about $7.9T), so China owns about 10% of that($2.5%, or $760B). So, maybe “big” among foreign holders, but not that big overall (kind of like being the tallest midget). However, it looks like the UK is about to overtake China for the number 2 slot.
Private, people forget the growing season in South America and Australia is opposite of ours. It’s already harvest season in those areas and not sure purchases from China is coming back if we give them time to find other sources.
Is anyone else feeling pretty much completely demoralized by the markets right now? It just feels like a casino these days. Refresh Truth Social every so often and maybe you’ll hit a jackpot.
I haven’t even lost money this year and the whole thing feels uninvestable. Have been selling off preferreds here and there, including my beloved BANC-F.
When the markets are in panic mode, the bids and liquidity go away on our BBs and preferreds. It’s always been this way and it’s never easy to watch or accept. As I get older I’m less enthused about holding individual securities because of times like these.
LOL. Proof that “The grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence.” I wish that I had the stability of more preferreds instead of my high-octane classic blend. The last few days have felt like being stuck on the Coney Island Cyclone on the day the brakeman called in sick, 60 degrees down at 60 mph, then over again. JMO, DYODD.
yeah – it’s why it’s a great time to buy if you have dry powder – if not, just ride it out and collect those yields.
O , YES! Fed up!
I wish I had been selling too . I shorted some PFF and MUB, then added Nov puts on each.
I fear the One Big Beautiful Bill will be the Second Undoing of markets .
Currency markets have heard the admin and are selling the dollar. This has to make our markets look a good deal less appealing.
I’m not worried about the Chinese not buying our paper. It’s the Japanese I worry about. Even so, domestic political entities, social security, and other governmental units are the biggest treasury buyers.
You might take a look at long dated Tips, which have the highest premium since the gfc.
Just now at the cabinet meeting, Bissent said they ‘had a successful bond sale’– really?
I don’t profess to understand the intricacies of the bond market auctions but I happened to see Rick Santelli on CNBC this morning and he was commenting that today’s bond auction was a very good one. Just passing that along.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/30-year-treasury-auction-showed-strong-demand-following-a-solid-10-year-sale/ar-AA1CDaTW?ocid=BingNewsSerp
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TLT?qsearchterm=tlt
And I’m amused that NEWTZ is now viewed as a safe harbor hiding spot — a highly leveraged provider of alternative loans.
I couldn’t find the treasury sale results that Tim posted for Wed’s 10yr, but I think 38% of that offer sold- much less than this 30 yr- although they said Wed’s was a ‘strong sale’.
Oh well….
And we have passed up those yields on the way to where ?
My bet is buying every auction from now on, as yields will rise into the auction because primary dealers are required to bid. If you cannot have a failed auction , you can get some damn high yields .
I like ATLCZ and I have been adding. Most recent purchase was at 24.13.
This puppy matures 1/31/2029. It exists because ATLC retired some more expensive debt and created this. They are actually saving money due to its creation. At par it pays 9.25% and below par you can do that math yourself.
ATLC, some what quietly, earns money each quarter. Some people might not agree with the line of business they are in but they seem to handle it quite well. The common does not pay a dividend but I doubt anyone who bought the common 10 years ago is complaining if they just held.
I own their preferred and other baby bond as well. ATLCL looks good as well if a short maturity is something you require. ATLCP, the preferred, I only bought when it really dipped in price. Not looking to add more of that but the yield is quite juicy.
I have also been adding to IIPR-A to create a small position and started a new position in DCOMG but only when it is below par. Just tossing out some ideas.
fc – Adding a little detail to this, fc: On the plus side, here’s what they redeemed with proceeds: “On November 14, 2019, a wholly-owned subsidiary issued 50.5 million Class B preferred units at a purchase price of $1.00 per unit to an unrelated third party. The units carry a 16% preferred return to be paid quarterly, with up to 6 percentage points of the preferred return to be paid through the issuance of additional units or cash, at our election. The units have both call and put rights and are also subject to various covenants including a minimum book value, which if not satisfied, could allow for the securities to be put back to the subsidiary. In March 2020, the subsidiary issued an additional 50.0 million Class B preferred units under the same terms. A holder of the Class B preferred units may, at its election and with notice, require the Company to redeem part or all of such holder’s Class B preferred units for cash at $1.00 per unit, on or after October 14, 2024”
On the negative side, clearly underwriter B. Rily was looking after their client, the issuer, more than their client the note buyer when writing:
“The indenture governing the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes contains limited protection for holders of the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes. The indenture under which the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes were issued offers limited protection to holders of the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes. The terms of the indenture and the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes do not restrict our or any of our subsidiaries’ ability to engage in, or otherwise be a party to, a variety of corporate transactions, circumstances or events that could have an adverse impact on the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes. In particular, the terms of the indenture and the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes do not place any restrictions on our or our subsidiaries’ ability to:
issue debt securities or otherwise incur additional indebtedness or other obligations, including (1) any indebtedness or other obligations that would be equal in right of payment to the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes, (2) any indebtedness or other obligations that would be secured and therefore rank effectively senior in right of payment to the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes to the extent of the value of the assets securing such indebtedness or other obligations, (3) indebtedness of ours that is guaranteed by one or more of our subsidiaries and which therefore would be structurally senior to the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes and (4) securities, indebtedness or obligations issued or incurred by our subsidiaries that would be senior to our equity interests in our subsidiaries and therefore rank structurally senior to the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes with respect to the assets of our subsidiaries;
pay dividends on, or purchase or redeem or make any payments in respect of, capital stock or other securities subordinated in right of payment to the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes;
sell assets (other than certain limited restrictions on our ability to consolidate, merge or sell all or substantially all of our assets);
enter into transactions with affiliates;
create liens (including liens on the shares of our subsidiaries) or enter into sale and leaseback transactions;
make investments; or
create restrictions on the payment of dividends or other amounts to us from our subsidiaries.
In addition, the indenture does not include any protection against certain events, such as a change of control, a leveraged recapitalization or “going private” transaction (which may result in a significant increase of our indebtedness levels), restructuring or similar transactions. Furthermore, the terms of the indenture and the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes do not protect holders of the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes in the event that we experience changes (including significant adverse changes) in our financial condition, results of operations or credit ratings, as they do not require that we or our subsidiaries adhere to any financial tests or ratios or specified levels of net worth, revenues, income, cash flow, or liquidity. Also, an event of default or acceleration under our other indebtedness would not necessarily result in an “event of default” under the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes.
Our ability to recapitalize, incur additional debt and take a number of other actions that are not limited by the terms of the indenture may have important consequences for holders of the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes, including making it more difficult for us to satisfy our obligations with respect to the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes or negatively affecting the trading value of the 2026 Senior Notes and 2029 Senior Notes.”
All from the latest 10k – https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001464343/000143774925007559/atlc20241231_10k.htm
good comment …atlcz/sjnk pair trading near 1.5 sigma rich..although I would normally view this as expensive almost everyone one the shorter maturity term preferreds and baby bonds are trading near 3-4 sigma rich ..it seems as if the nominal yields are overwhelming the spread to the etf which yield 7.4 now
Here’s a model for an SPX correction. For ease of explanation assume price starts at 100 and ends at 0. The price levels are Fibonacci.
100 start
61.8 first major low
78.6 first bounce high
23.6 second major low
61.8 second bounce high
0 final low
Using ES (SPX futures) prices, the start is 6166.50. I’m choosing 4450.25 as the low. Here are the price levels per the model, rounded to whole numbers.
6166.50 start
5509 first major low (actual 5509)
5797 first bounce high (actual 5837)
4855 second major low (actual 4832)
5509 second bounce high (actual 5529)
4450 final low (actual TBD)
The actual prices are close to the model. It’s completely uncertain if there will be a lower low and what that price might be. Everyone and their mother sees the same thing I do and will try to front run the low.
rockstostocks –
When you say “everyone and their mother sees the same thing you do” , you think the S&P is going to go down an additional 16%? It’s confusing because you first say that the low is at a completely uncertain level, then you say everyone and their mother sees it as you do and will be “front-running” the low. ???? In the Financial Services Industry, Front Running only means one thing: The illegal and immoral practice of filling g your own orders ahead of your clients??? So the bottom is uncertain but you and everyone you know do know where the bottom is and will get your orders filled at that point ahead of your clients???
SPNT-B seller in mkt – last trade = 24.85 YTC 2/26/26 = 9.86% Will reset at 5 yr Treas + 7.298
Seems entirely a result of credit spread widening in general, no?
I sure hope so…. FWIW, the 5 year would have to go to 2.70% for this to reset at a rate lower than 10%. And if it’s not called on 2/26/26 it will not be callable again for another 5 years.
I’m concerned about credit markets and no longer want anything that isn’t AAA or FDIC.
I think markets have lost faith in the dollar and the administration
4 more divy’s before 2/26/26 call date…correct?
Almost…. The call date is 2 days before the full 4rth quarter dividend.
I saw this as well and bought in the 24.95 area today.