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Sandbox Page

I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.

That link will get you to this page.

I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.

I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.

I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.

2,911 thoughts on “Sandbox Page”

  1. Hope you do not own any of the Florida “Brightline” muni bonds!!!!!!!!!!

    (BTW, same founder Wes Edens as troubled NFE, owner of GMLPF preferreds down from ~25 to ~ 1.0, so this guy is on a roll!)

    From Bloomberg:

    Brightline Trains Florida, the Fortress Investment Group-backed passenger railroad, plans to defer a July 15 interest payment on its 10% and 12% unrated tax-exempt bonds, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Brightline notified holders of the delay through the Depository Trust Company, said the people who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. The incident is not considered an event of default, according to bond documents. A default only occurs if the railroad MISSES THREE CONSECUTIVE interest payments, the documents state.

    The unpaid portion, as well as subsequent interest payments due, will continue to accrue at the coupon rate in addition to an extra 2% until interest is paid, according to the bond documents.

  2. I just got a message from Fidelity that Wintrust WTFCP will be called on 7-15.
    It will be a full call. I have not seen any mention of this, so I thought I would
    post it.

    1. Announced a couple weeks ago. It’s been expected because of the high float rate, no surprise here.

        1. Same as the vix, the MOVE is tracking the option/future premium on the bond indices. So, if you wanted to hedge a price/rate change, you’d want to buy premium when the IV/MOVE is low, and sell premium when the IV/MOVE is high.
          Either could be used to help jockey you into position, or protect your overall FI portfolio. Bassman, the creator of MOVE, is a interesting fella – he’s a lot different than me, but I like the guy! His partner, Mike Green, has a product, CDX, which I find fascinating (sell the swap/box on the HY index, so the counterparty is the bank (A- rated), instead of the Bond (rated BBB- or BB) while mimicking the hy index exposure plus 50bps) Y. Their corporate ethos is also not bad – it’s like a hybrid of jack bogle (fees are important, don’t screw your customer), and a hedge fund.

  3. Anyone have an opinion on the apparently being raised from the dead TPTA, which matures in just under a year?
    Current bid: 20.49 ask:20.70

    Terra Property Trust, Inc. 6.00% Notes due 2026, redeemable at the issuer’s option on or after 06/30/2023 at $25 per note plus accrued and unpaid interest, and maturing 06/30/2026.

    Thanks
    Steve

  4. YTM on Ramaco Baby (METCL) was getting pretty low, so I swapped out those shares and picked up the other Ramaco Baby (METCZ). Tad less on the quarterly payment and some duration risk (matures Nov 2029) added a couple % YTM. Smallish position though; .27% of portfolio total.

  5. Any ZION news?
    ZIONP up ~ $1.00 on > 3x normal volume (at 1:30 EDT).
    Every recent trade seems to be at/near the ASK.

      1. Greg, thanks for the link. Stanford Chemist’s articles keep getting better over the years he has been writing. The small acorns of wisdom posted by readers is especially helpful. Retired Investor was a data analyst for pension fund managers before he retired and he also writes articles.
        I have thought of goosing my returns by holding the common of BDC’s and CEF’s but I will take a little less return by holding their preferred and BB’s

    1. My only comment on ZIONP is I do not understand why someone would want a long term security tied to short-term rates. It seems counterintuitive without a big margin. A bump of .52% above SOFR +.26 doesn’t account for long-term risk.

      1. Playing Devil’s Advocate, a bump of .52% above SOFR +.26 every 3 months does account for much when it comes to stabilizing price vs a plain vanilla perpetual, and unless the long term risk turns instantaneously turns into short time reality, it will afford the holder a more cushioned exit…

      2. >A bump of .52% above SOFR +.26 doesn’t account for long-term risk.

        That’s what price is for.

        1. 2WR good point, but being a bank it increases the risk and I’m not sure that is enough to compensate for the risk.

  6. “‘Essential isn’t a strong enough word’: Loss of foreign workers begins to bite US economy”
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/08/essential-isnt-a-strong-enough-word-loss-of-foreign-workers-begins-to-bite-us-economy-00443021

    “Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Tuesday suggested Medicaid participants who don’t yet meet the work requirements passed in Republicans’ megabill could supplement labor shortages in the agriculture industry.”

    1. James –

      “did umh-d get called?”

      It is the opposite. UMH continues to use UMH-D as an ATM. Issued another 49K shares during 1Q 2025.

      “For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the Company issued and sold 49,000 shares of its Series D Preferred Stock under the 2023 Preferred ATM Program at a weighted average price of $23.03 per share, generating gross proceeds of $1.1 million and net proceeds of $982,000, after offering expenses.”

      The original size of this preferred was 2M shares back in 2018; now the shares outstanding are 12.872M.

      And in March they just set up a new $100M ATM agreement for UMH-D with brokerage arm of RILY. Can issue another $100M worth of shares (4+M).

      So unless we go back to ZIRP (which is actually possible if current Administration gets their wish in 2026 and beyond), I don’t see this preferred re-rating and getting back to $25 anytime soon.

      1. Papa Doc, After some thought ( just for a second) I decided to pass on this preferred. As the cockroach said in Men in Black, ” I got a lot of hungry mouths to feed”
        As UMH increases the amount of UMH-D it increases the amount of dividends it has to pay. I wouldn’t have an issue with the company if they sold more common because if something happens they can cut the common dividend to conserve cash, but with a preferred they would have to suspend the dividend completely.

  7. PFFA bottomed on April 7 at 19.2. On April 24 it entered a range from 20.3 to 21 where it stayed until the breakout on July 2. PFFA closed at 21.29, yield 9.6%.

    One way to interpret the price action is to treat the range as the halfway point of the rally off the low. That scheme projects a target at 22.09, yield 9.2%, in the middle of the Jan thru Feb trading range, a logical destination. What actually happens remains to be seen and depends on other market factors.

    I bought once near the low and four times in the range, worrying the whole time that the next move was down. Now with the breakout and the possibility of a continuing rally, I’m having to readjust my outlook (with difficulty) for PFFA and preferreds in general.

    I’m 5.7% cash with another 3.9% coming next week. There’s another 4.6% tucked away until Sep. I need 5% for a cash reserve. I’m feeling pressure to get the excess out of SGOV and into play at 7.5% or better. No doubt, mistakes will be made.

  8. There’s been a lot of hand wringing about tariffs and shouting about the FFR. I’m sure if you look at specific industries and companies you’ll see that tariffs are causing pain or lower short rates would be beneficial. But looking at the economy as a whole (probably a bad idea), is there any consistent evidence of damage from tariffs or evidence that Fed Funds is too high? Some industries and companies are thriving. Maybe the FFR is just right.

    Macro that matters:
    – Inflation: Will the lower dollar and higher import prices move the needle up? Jury’s out.
    – Employment: Some evidence of weakness, but will it become serious? I watch employment and trends in construction for clues.
    – Long-end rates: If animal spirits, buoyed by stimulus from deficit spending and Congressional largess, run the stock indexes to new heights, I think the price will be high long-end rates. Now imagine a rate cut thrown on the bonfire.
    – Credit: Spreads remain tight and the treasury market appears to be functioning. I keep a finger in the wind.

    1. R2S—don’t you think it’s a little early to reach/make any conclusions about the effect of tariffs? The way Trump seems to enjoy the attention he gets from constantly changing tariffs, I can see this uncertainty lasting for a long time. Makes it really hard to make any long term investment decisions with so little certainty out there.

      1. whidbey-
        I’m sorry I wasn’t clear. My point about tariffs is that it is too early to draw conclusions. There’s no solid evidence yet about the impact on the economy, one way or the other or no way at all.

        I think all of the turmoil is bad and disturbing in many ways. I suspect harm is being done, but I don’t know how it will manifest.

        1. Rocks, the only solid evidence I see is tariffs effect (on inflation) is muted because short term rates were too high to begin with (or just right depending on how you look at it). The financial press and subsequent hyperventilating by economists and various online hysteria from commenters (to include this site) never took into account that rates were already too high. Lower rates and you will see your tariff induced inflation. How much should rates be lowered? I don’t know. Trump says 3%. I’m thinking half that. Does that move the 10yr lower? My thinking is no, but then again, I try not to predict rates 🙂 Another observation I find interesting and somewhat enlightening is if inflation (caused by tariffs, or so everybody thinks) had arrived immediately, how many of the same people now saying that it takes time been quick to shout “See? See there? See what Trump did? He rose inflation!!!”
          People have lost their minds. Sane people, otherwise smart people. They get completely unglued when obsessed with shenanigans in Washington. Which bring me to even one more final point; perhaps too much focus with politics and kicking the budgetary can down the road has frozen people with fear. I’ve been investing for nearly 40 yrs now, I’ve never seen so much focus on politics and DC as pertains personal finance. I’ve not once cared about the goings on there when deciding what to invest in. Not one decision was made because I was triggered by unhappy thoughts and worry about what some bureaucrats were doing. The idea of demanding this mythical “certainty” in everything we do is laughable. Let us all here promise each other something. Whenever someone feels they are now certain of outcomes, please do us all a favor and let us know. Keep searching for the boogeyman, we all know he’s there……somewhere.

          1. pig-
            The funny part is that when something does change, inflation or retail buying or GDP or whatever, there will be no way to know what caused the change.

          2. It’s easy to spot the difference between real investors and people talking their bias. Most of what has been predicted about tariffs is political posturing by people who don’t put their money where their mouth is. Personally I’m not good at predicting the future I’m better at responding to whatever happens.

  9. Looking at my CTA-PB 4.5% $100 preferred today. Call price is $120. At current price it pays 6.47%. Looks very safe to me. Price range over 52 weeks was 67.09 – 83.10. Thinking of buying more. Anyone see any negatives?

    1. I have had this preferred for a very long time. In 2019 Corteva and Dow Chemical were spun out of a prior mega merger with Dupont. The end result was that CTA-B and CTA-A were put onto the balance sheet of Corteva. So to determine its safety look at Corteva (Ag play) to assess its viability. I do know Corteva has manageable debt (17% of equity). The stock itself has been on a tear as of late.

    2. I own the A and B. Lots of different companies in these two.
      I only have one comment..call them please I double dog dare ya.

  10. Does anyone have the first ex div date for the new Wintrust pfd WTFCN? Prospectus says first div payable to be 10/15/25 so I guess it will have a stub payment? Called the company and no help. Thanks

  11. I saw this news.

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/4463165-public-storages-subsidiary-prices-875m-debt-offering-via-issuance-of-senior-notes

    So they borrowed 875m to pay off 400m of senior notes due in 2025? The article above has this blurb: “with a weighted average interest rate of approximately 4.661%” for the new borrowings.

    Now the article also mentions this:

    “PSOC expects to use the net proceeds to repay its outstanding $400 million in aggregate principal amount of its floating rate senior notes due 2025 and for general corporate purposes, including acquisitions of self-storage facilities and repayment of other debt.”

    So is there a possibility they would kill off PSA-H which is a 5.6% preferred? They would need approx 285m to kill it. We know PSA is a serial killer when it comes to preferred if they can save a wooden nickel… so I wanted other people’s thoughts on this possibility. Would PSA-H be a good buy at 22.95? I already own some so buying some more at a yield of 6.1% is not a horrible purchase for an A3/BBB+ rated preferred.

    1. fc, I can’t say whether or not they call it, all I can say is I have a bunch of it myself and hope they do. And to be quite frank, was a huge part of why it was bought to begin with.

  12. Top 10 MMFs today…(7 day yields)

    1. VMRXX ~ 4.24%
    2. GABXX ~ 4.24%
    3. VMFXX ~ 4.23%
    4. DTGXX ~ 4.23%
    5. VUSXX ~ 4.17%
    6. SWVXX ~ 4.16%
    7. IUSXX ~ 4.12%
    8. SNVXX ~ 4.07%
    9. PRTXX ~ 4.05%
    10. SNOXX ~ 4.03%

    XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

    Dogs of Dow Dividend Yields…

    1. Verizon ~ 6.42%
    2. Chevron ~ 4.79%
    3. Merck ~ 4.19%
    4. J&J ~ 3.39%
    5. Amgen ~ 3.34%
    6. United Health ~ 2.95%
    7. Coca-Cola ~ 2.94%
    8. Proctor & Gamble ~ 2.66%
    9. Home Depot ~ 2.55%
    10. McDonalds ~ 2.52%

    1. Not sure how this article applies to CHS preferred owners. Small farm owners probably account for a very small percentage of CHS business. Am I wrong?

      1. IIRC from some reading a while back, CHS has something like 75,000 producer/owners, so I guess it depends on what you mean by small.

  13. I am not interested, but some may be interested. Moody’s BAA2. Passing it along

    Athene Holding Ltd
    Callable 03/35@ Greater of 100 or Make Whole – Fixed to Float – Make Whole Call Exp 03/2035 – 6.875% FIXED until 06/28/2035 then 5YR CMT + 258.2BP – Conditional Calls

    CUSIP 04686JAM3

  14. I said recently that IRX, the 13-week t-bill index, was hinting at a rate cut when I saw that the yield was trending down below 4.25%. Evaporated. The trend reversed and the yield is back near 4.25%.

    In another sharp reversal, ZB t-bond futures rose from the May 22 low into a small topping pattern. Price peaked on July 1 and has been trending down since (t-bond yield rising).

  15. Just for laffs, I Iooked at my biggest holdings in fixed income, which is about 2/3 CUSIPs and 1/3 preferreds+BBs+etfs. I may laugh, but you are not allowed to laugh, no matter how ridiculous this might look. I did not include the very large amounts in certain preferreds that will be called in July or will likely be called in Sep.
    4.0% ET CUSIPs(2) preferred reset, YOC 7.2%
    2.8% illiquid ute preferreds YOC 6.0%
    2.7% WFC-L, YOC 5.9%
    2.2% PFFA, YOC 9.5%
    1.6% PSA-J,H, YOC 5.5%
    1.4% GS CUSIP preferred reset, YOC 6.1%
    1.4% AL CUSIP preferred reset, YOC 6.0%
    1.0% RITM-A,B,C,D, YOC 9.0%
    0.9% ET-I, YOC 7.3%
    —–
    17.5% of all fixed income
    YOC 6.5% all fixed income

    I started out in fixed income buying CUSIPs and got used to purchases in the thousands of dollars for senior debt, often big banks. When I began buying preferreds, the amounts were much smaller and generally still are. It’s mainly a psychological quirk that allows me to buy an oversized 4% position in ET CUSIP preferreds.

      1. Larry-
        By CUSIP I mean a security that is not exchange-traded and is identified by its CUSIP. For me, these are mostly $100 par bonds traded in $1000 units.

  16. BDC Trinity Capital senior debt offerings: BBs TRINI and TRINZ, and new issue $1000 bond 896442AJ9. How do they compare? Do the differences explain the coupon gap?
    TRINI, TRINZ: 7.875% due 2029, call 2026, quarterly, not rated
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1786108/000121390024026256/ea0202367-02_424b2.htm
    896442AJ9: 6.75% due 2030, call 2030, make whole, semiannual, expected rating Baa3
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1786108/000121390025059680/ea0246664-02_424b2.htm#T992210

  17. Slok: “Outlook for the dollar after Section 899: The US is still exceptional”
    https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/070525_USDollar_v2.pdf
    “1. TIC data, combined with the strength of the US equity market and tight credit spreads in IG and HY, indicate that the dollar decline in the first half of 2025 was not driven by foreign selling of US assets.
    2. Instead, the decline in the dollar was likely driven by hedging activity, as foreign investors, after decades of not hedging their US investments, began hedging some of their dollar exposures.
    3. With Section 899 behind us, and the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer, dollar hedging activity is likely to slow down.”

  18. FWIW– I saw that Del Monte is filing for BK — canned goods losing popularity seen as one reason.

  19. Waiting to see if the new amended BBB will be approved by the House. It is making me check on the muni cefs i own in regards to Healthcare or hospital revenue bonds. NAD, Has been a good cef but 20% invested in healthcare and hospital revenue bonds.

    1. To all lllers, I have been following progress of of Tax bill. the exact particulars are hard to come by, but In my thinking seniors who have had taxable social security should have a three year window for nice Roth conversion with no additonal taxation “possibly the best retirement move you could make”. any thoughts or strategies would be wellcomed. thanks Mike

      1. Haven’t looked at it closely but moving money out of an IRA is probably still a taxable event. If income is low enough there may be a new tax benefit.

  20. Free at last! Free at last@ Thank God Almighty we are Free at Last. . .from the mighty spam filter which blocked this post 5+ times.

    Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 states currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.

    Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!

    BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.

    Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.

    From Bondbuyer.com

    A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.

    Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.

    City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.

    In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.

    BTW, if anyone wants a brief history of muni bankruptcies, speak up. You have come to the right place.

    1. I never understood how AGO withstood all the Puerto Rico default madness. It was too complex for me to figure out, so I just moved on.

  21. Another rare, can’t possibly happen event MIGHT occur. An investment grade (SP AA-) municipal school district is threatening to declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy. Unknowable if this is posturing or will really occur.

    From Bloomberg:
    **************************************************
    A New Jersey school district is threatening to file bankruptcy after years of state funding cuts, escalating a showdown with Governor Phil Murphy’s administration.

    The Toms River Regional School District — located on the Jersey Shore — opted not to pass a budget that would raise taxes at its June 30 board meeting. Instead, school board president Ashley Lamb has authorized district staff to consult with bankruptcy attorneys and begin the process for filing for Chapter 9 protection, she said.

    The move would provide the district “protection from creditors while developing a debt-adjustment plan,” Lamb said at the meeting. “We will not abandon our students or compromise their education while the state refuses to address the crisis they have created.”

    School district officials say its state aid has been cut by $175 million in recent years. A spokesperson for the governor’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

    Such a filing would be an unusual step, given that public-sector bankruptcies are very rare. Since November 2022, just two governments have filed for Chapter 9, a small city in Washington and Chester, Pennsylvania. Plus, the Toms River school district boasts an investment-grade credit rating, with debt graded AA- by S&P Global Ratings. The district has about $135 million of municipal-bond debt outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    1. The classic case of a school district being lushly funded for many years finally getting some of the pie taken away and locals do not want to pay for it.

      https://www.trschools.com/community/outside-the-bubble-a-lot-going-on-at-intermediate-east
      https://www.trschools.com/arena/

      Did you have that when you went to HS? Geezus.. no wonder they are broke. It is very interesting how one can go on facebook and locals explain the real story if you can weed through the misinformation. This keeps explaining why my muni search EXCLUDES education and hospitals. Reality does not seem to matter for quite a few of those operations.

    2. Tex – Would you expect S&P to pretty quickly asterisk their credit rating based on this threat being issued by the School Board Chairman? As this just happened, they can’t be faulted for having Toms River rated AA-, but I would think they’d respond pretty quickly in their overall assessment of the credit, yes?

      1. 2WR, my experience is that the rating agencies downgrade AFTER they have filed BK in some cases. Maybe in this case, they have high confidence that the school district will not file BK, but as you suggested, they should at least put it on notice for possible downgrade.

    3. One important note I should have added. Whenever a municipality does go BK, it is common for local’s that know about it first, put their bonds up for sale. You are looking at your screen and see an IG rated muni with an above market yield and you think GREAT, I’ll take some. Then a day or two later you find out what you bought. And the dealer will NOT bust the trade. The fact that you did NOT know about the BK is “your problem” not the sellers.

      We do NOT own any of these Toms River school bonds in any account. But we do own an issue where this precise scenario played out. Local knew about BK, we bought and regretted it in a few days.

    4. — “small city” ..”unusual step” ..”public-sector bankruptcies are very rare. ” Creative minimization. By using a 2022 cutoff date in its story, Bloomberg gets to omit Detroit and Vallejo.
      — The School district seems to say we won’t cut expenses and we won’t raise taxes. (I wanted a steak for dinner yesterday, but I had to settle for grilled cheese. ) Not unreasonable for the State to tell the school district it can’t spend money on summer school until the school district adopts a legal balanced budget.
      — A lot more of this coming down the road as local governments grapple with the loss of chunks of federal funding. Last year a small rural town stopped paying in its bonds when times got tough during a drought. No thought of raising taxes. The “General Obligation bond” backed by the taxing power is becoming the “Optical Illusion bond ” JMO. DYODD.

  22. Bad title. It’s interesting speculation about what could happen when rate cuts restart after a pause.
    “The wrong kind of Fed rate cuts are coming, says JPMorgan. What that means for stocks, bonds and the dollar.”
    https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025063025/the-wrong-kind-of-fed-rate-cuts-are-coming-says-jpmorgan-what-that-means-for-stocks-bonds-and-the-dollar

    In this vein on a day when the stock indexes were quiet and MAGS was down, I noticed some nice gains in beaten down common stocks today: PFE +3.3%, UNH +4.5%, DOW +5.1%, LYB +5.8%, PEP +2.4%, CAG +2.8%, HSY +5.9%, SJM +4.8%, BLDR +8.8%, for example. Too early to call it a rotation, but there was a lot of it.

    1. so many things at or near 52 week lows. STK, lots of bread and butter stuff.

      I dabble in cag, dow, ADM, STK, trow, mrk, nvo

      1. I keep looking at WEN..free cash flow of ~260 mil has to appeal to PE. SHAK free cash flow ~7.5 mil… Not perfect metrics but positive free cash flow way better than negative!!! FWIW

        1. Picked up PFE at 24.25 that is my benchmark. If it drops close to that again I will buy more.

  23. SPAM filter wins!
    Tried several times posting for individual muni bond buyers. Blocked all of them including the version in Spanish. . . no Big Beautiful Blog Posts today. . .

      1. Petoskeymi–I’m trying to find the reason for Tex’s posts going to spam. Sorry for the hassle.

    1. Tex—I am looking through the spam and have pushed a number of them through—the damn thing really doesn’t like your post for some reason–I am looking for the reason. My apologies.

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