I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
This tweet has a great chart breaking down debt maturities for large-, mid- and small-caps. Large caps (as a group) are 72% fixed with maturities in 2028+.
https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1923505929128943868
Others were likely aware of this but I did not know that as of 7/1, gold is considered a Tier 1 asset for banks under Basel 3. There had previously been a 50% haircut.
I’m waiting for the Tier 1 treatment of Bitcoin to predict the demise of the banking system.
There seems to be a lot of confusion on this topic (gold & Basel), depending on which website you visit, which gold ETF promo you read, which YouTube video you watch or which AI Chat you talk to. Another viewpoint –
Gold and HQLA: Correcting Misleading Online Information
https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/gold-and-hqla-correcting-misleading-online-information
“There have been inaccurate reports online that gold will be reclassified as Tier 1 HQLA (High Quality Liquid Asset) under Basel III as of July 1, 2025. This information is not correct; no official announcement has been made or is expected on gold gaining HQLA status. ….
“Tier 1 refers to capital rules that were written in the original Basel Accord in July 1988 which became known as Basel 1. HQLA is a function within the liquidity rules of LCR and NSFR which were first written into Basel 3 and implemented by Basel on January 1, 2019. People are getting mixed up between capital rules and liquidity rules.
“Gold is already a Tier 1 asset under the Basel Capital Accords meaning that it has a 0% risk weight. This is true for all three Basel Accords. The rule states that gold held in a bank’s own vault is deemed as a Tier 1 asset with a zero-risk weighting. Nothing has changed since the original Basel I Accord was created in 1988. ”
JMO. DYODD.
Thank you very much for this info. I sit corrected.
The post I made was based on this link in an IBKR newsletter dated 5/16/25:
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders-insight/securities/commodities/gold-goes-full-reserve-asset-as-basel-iii-elevates-it-to-tier-1-status/
COIN jumped $6 in a 5-second period as the 5 million share buy imbalance was posted ahead of the stock being added to the S&P 500.
COF/DFS closed their merger, with a big buy imbalance of COF and a huge sell imbalance on DFS into the close. The arb spread finished at just under a FREE $1 per share.
As I’ve said b4, the closest thing to free money is trading mergers in the closing print using MOC orders. The deal had already closed earlier today and the target stock keeps trading to allow funds to sell their positions at the close.
If you think , for example ,that you are only paying a very small fee to hold an index fund, you are not accounting for the slippage in trades like this every time a merger closes.
Lt,
First off, thank you for your contributions to this forum. I am learning a lot from reading your war stories and how you off-set risks in positions you take.
In the DFS/ COF trade example, are you entering a sell MOC order on COF and a second order to buy DFS MOC to capture the spread?
Are there tools that you can suggest to identify late day order imbalances? I previously used TD Ameritrade’s order book to get a quick snapshot.
Larry L,
Yes, I enter an MOC buy against a DFS sell imbalance, and an MOC sell against the COF buy imbalance.
Imbalances are published at various times prior to the close. The times have changed over the years, and I’m going from memory of my last conversation with someone who still trades full-time believe Nasdaq begins publication 1 hour prior to the close. NYSE/ Amex at 3:50 ET, although very large imbalances can be published earlier.
https://www.nyse.com/market-data/real-time/imbalances
Here’s the rub:
IBKR does a poor job of showing all the imbalances in a market screener field. For some reason unknown to me many do not show up. Maybe someone can opine.
I don’t know of any other retail platform that publishes the imbalance feed, but there are many I have not ever trialed.
Many professional trading systems have robust publication, which also shows the number of shares that have been paired off against the imbalance. They update constantly as MOC orders come in.
A true pro trader–and I haven’t been in 15 years, has full access to the imbalance feed, plus subscribes to an “early look” service that reports imbalances at least 1 hour before the close on NYSE and updates regularly.
As you likely know, you can only enter an MOC order that offsets the imbalance after the info is published to the market. However, the true pro trader has a hot key mapped to a floor trader …meaning he can send an order to a floor trader, and that floor trader can actually increase the imbalance after the publication…and generally this can be done right up to the close or 30 secs b4 to ensure the order goes to a trading post in time.
My understanding of NASDAQ handling of closing orders is there is time priority over price priority, unlike NYSE. I could be wrong on this but was told it several times by a trader. What this means is a better priced order may lose out on a fill to a poorer-priced order based on time of entry.
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/productsservices/Trading/ClosingCrossfaq.pdf
The opening cross /auction is also of perhaps greater value than the closing cross when there will be a big move because you can often trade against what is in the book and the opening indicated price is often manipulated by entry of large market orders that are then cancelled once a pre-market price has been achieved by someone who is hoping people trade against the indicated auction price.
I’ve tried years ago to get SEC to take action against manipulation of the opening indicated price and gave up more than 15 years ago
Larry,
I wanted to add that almost all of the big money a pro trader makes is from informational and platform advantages over retail/ institutional trading. It’s not from special abilities or taking big risks. When NYSE had the Specialist system, the NYSE Specialist made a great living having structural advantages of seeing order flow. among others. Nobody would take on an obligation to make a market against all comers who want to buy or sell without a structural advantage of significant size.
Once might argue that understanding the advantages is a skill, but I think not. Those advantages would disappear i,f everyone knew about them
Medallion Financial’s MFIN new Medallion Bank series G preferred MBNKO has priced at 9.0%, at the low end of the indicated 9.0-9.25% range. MBNKO resets in 5 years at 5 Year Treasury rate plus 4.94%. 3 million shares. IMHO, this new issue increases the likelihood that the series F preferred MBKNP will be called. As I previously mentioned, I consider this one speculative, so DYODD. JMO.
Does anyone know if it’s possible to reverse the order of comments to old -> new instead of new -> old under the articles?
Jos,
The only way I know how to read messages from old to new is by getting them into an RSS reader. There are several of them. I use Feedbro. It takes some effort with Feedbro. It does take some work to set it up.
I use the “find” function to search the date…like”05/16″. If I miss a day or two I start at 5/14 or so. It works good jumping me around to recent responses.
The Pink Sheets are getting an upgrade in July. (The Pink Sheets aren’t the Pink Sheets anymore. Officially, they are the Pink Current Market or the Pink Open Market. ) In July, 2025, OTC Markets will replace / upgrade The Pink Sheets with the new memorably named OTCID. The OTCID will be a better neighborhood and require more disclosures.
OTC Markets sums up the impact of the change like this: “Companies that do not meet the requirements for OTCQX, OTCQB or OTCID will be downgraded to Pink Limited or Expert Markets on July 1, 2025.” On the plus side OTC Markets is looking to attract more foreign companies with the OTCID being the new entry level option.
Observation: The five OTC Market tiers work roughly like the nine rings in Dante’s Inferno: the bigger your reporting sins, the farther down you drop, until you hit rock bottom, the Expert Market. (“Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.” – Dante) JMO. DYODD.
3 Things You Need to Know About the Launch of OTCID
https://blog.otcmarkets.com/2025/04/23/3-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-launch-of-otcid/
Eric Basmajian
“The (Cyclical) Economy Leads Earnings”
https://epbresearch.substack.com/p/the-cyclical-economy-leads-earnings
Rates:
Treasuries 1-year 4.15%, 10-year 4.54%, 30-year 4.98%
CDs (one year) 4.1%
Bank bonds (new, IG, at least one year) 6-6.25%
Agencies (new, at least one year) 6.01%
CPI is above 2% primarily due to housing (lagging) and car insurance, according to Eric Basmajian. Will tariffs add? Hotly debated.
Fed policy rate 4.25-4.5% with no cuts expected near term
The mix feels odd.
R2S just asking, because I am holding some fixed to resets that reset off of the 5yr treasuries
Getting tired of the uncertainty to the point of just wanting to park my money in something with a good return and what I consider ave risk.
I have been looking at long term hold on 20+ year corp. Bonds BBB- to BBB+ with a 6.9 to 7.1 return.
But there has been a problem with Fidelity bond search the last few days. The system shows a bond available but when you click on it and go to the next screen to place a order it shows the cusip shaded out. Normally that means it’s not available and if you try placing a order it shows a message not available.
In the last few days placed orders have went through, but about an hour later on open trades it shows open than a second transaction showing cancelled
Just a little frustrated with Fidelity
What’s odd? IMO, CDs should be at least 4.5%, agencies, 6.5%. The current spreads are anomalous compared to recent history.
TLT and the investment grade perpetual preferreds (new rock band?) act awful.
TLT moves around enough to trade. And if you get caught leaning the wrong way you still get the 4.5% or so. Not as profitable as the high yielders but safer.