I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
This farm bureau report may be of interest to CHS preferred holders. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/the-other-paycheck-how-off-farm-income-keeps-farmers-farming
I am not interested, but some may be interested. Moody’s BAA2. Passing it along
Athene Holding Ltd
Callable 03/35@ Greater of 100 or Make Whole – Fixed to Float – Make Whole Call Exp 03/2035 – 6.875% FIXED until 06/28/2035 then 5YR CMT + 258.2BP – Conditional Calls
CUSIP 04686JAM3
I said recently that IRX, the 13-week t-bill index, was hinting at a rate cut when I saw that the yield was trending down below 4.25%. Evaporated. The trend reversed and the yield is back near 4.25%.
In another sharp reversal, ZB t-bond futures rose from the May 22 low into a small topping pattern. Price peaked on July 1 and has been trending down since (t-bond yield rising).
This morning the 13 weeks T-bills was auctioned off at equivalent coupon yield of 4.361% https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250707_1.pdf
The final coupon yield was only announced at 2:30pm ET due to “technical issues”, lol. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/SPL_20250707_2.pdf
Just for laffs, I Iooked at my biggest holdings in fixed income, which is about 2/3 CUSIPs and 1/3 preferreds+BBs+etfs. I may laugh, but you are not allowed to laugh, no matter how ridiculous this might look. I did not include the very large amounts in certain preferreds that will be called in July or will likely be called in Sep.
4.0% ET CUSIPs(2) preferred reset, YOC 7.2%
2.8% illiquid ute preferreds YOC 6.0%
2.7% WFC-L, YOC 5.9%
2.2% PFFA, YOC 9.5%
1.6% PSA-J,H, YOC 5.5%
1.4% GS CUSIP preferred reset, YOC 6.1%
1.4% AL CUSIP preferred reset, YOC 6.0%
1.0% RITM-A,B,C,D, YOC 9.0%
0.9% ET-I, YOC 7.3%
—–
17.5% of all fixed income
YOC 6.5% all fixed income
I started out in fixed income buying CUSIPs and got used to purchases in the thousands of dollars for senior debt, often big banks. When I began buying preferreds, the amounts were much smaller and generally still are. It’s mainly a psychological quirk that allows me to buy an oversized 4% position in ET CUSIP preferreds.
What is a cusip? Every security has one, right?
Larry-
By CUSIP I mean a security that is not exchange-traded and is identified by its CUSIP. For me, these are mostly $100 par bonds traded in $1000 units.
BDC Trinity Capital senior debt offerings: BBs TRINI and TRINZ, and new issue $1000 bond 896442AJ9. How do they compare? Do the differences explain the coupon gap?
TRINI, TRINZ: 7.875% due 2029, call 2026, quarterly, not rated
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1786108/000121390024026256/ea0202367-02_424b2.htm
896442AJ9: 6.75% due 2030, call 2030, make whole, semiannual, expected rating Baa3
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1786108/000121390025059680/ea0246664-02_424b2.htm#T992210
Market supply of prefetted stock is shrinking.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-05/the-securities-that-banks-are-backing-away-from-credit-weekly
Archive of the article for those of us who are too cheap to pay.
https://archive.ph/E3Do8
Thanks fc
fc why does Truist financial need the leveraged loan trader they hired?
Slok: “Outlook for the dollar after Section 899: The US is still exceptional”
https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/070525_USDollar_v2.pdf
“1. TIC data, combined with the strength of the US equity market and tight credit spreads in IG and HY, indicate that the dollar decline in the first half of 2025 was not driven by foreign selling of US assets.
2. Instead, the decline in the dollar was likely driven by hedging activity, as foreign investors, after decades of not hedging their US investments, began hedging some of their dollar exposures.
3. With Section 899 behind us, and the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer, dollar hedging activity is likely to slow down.”
Slok broke this chart out from the dollar outlook set for today’s Daily Spark.
“The 10% Depreciation in the Dollar Will Boost Inflation by 0.3 Percentage Points”
https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-10-depreciation-in-the-dollar-will-boost-inflation-by-0-3-percentage-points/
Relevant to us because it may be a reason to expect long rates to stay high.
FWIW– I saw that Del Monte is filing for BK — canned goods losing popularity seen as one reason.
Waiting to see if the new amended BBB will be approved by the House. It is making me check on the muni cefs i own in regards to Healthcare or hospital revenue bonds. NAD, Has been a good cef but 20% invested in healthcare and hospital revenue bonds.
To all lllers, I have been following progress of of Tax bill. the exact particulars are hard to come by, but In my thinking seniors who have had taxable social security should have a three year window for nice Roth conversion with no additonal taxation “possibly the best retirement move you could make”. any thoughts or strategies would be wellcomed. thanks Mike
Mike, you can find the enacted legislation at https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text .
I think the part you’re most interested in is at section 70103.
Mike r-
Thanks- will have to keep that in mind if it gets implemented.
Haven’t looked at it closely but moving money out of an IRA is probably still a taxable event. If income is low enough there may be a new tax benefit.
Al, one of our fellow IIIer’s I follow just posted this.
https://grantsforseniors.org/one-big-beautiful-bill-and-nursing-homes/
The new bill is going to affect a lot of things related to healthcare. With the rules changed the game is going to change.
There is no author listed on this article, or on the site in general?
Free at last! Free at last@ Thank God Almighty we are Free at Last. . .from the mighty spam filter which blocked this post 5+ times.
Extremely rare event you should understand if you invest in individual Muni bonds. A microscopically small city in Washington State declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy. They have some general obligation bonds outstanding, so conceivably they could suffer losses. 26/50 states currently allow Chapter 9 BK, meaning 24 do not allow it. The elephant waiting in the BK lounge is Chicago, but Illinois law does not currently allow it. Would NOT be surprised if they changed the law, retroactively.
Recall that states/territories could not declare BK, but Congress passed a law that allowed Puerto Rico to declare. It has been an epic and I mean epic disaster. The Puerto Rico Electric utility is still not out of BK after nine years! All thanks to a single district court judge allowing it happen. In the meantime, they have spent roughly $500 million on lawyers/consultants with no end in sight. It is the toast of the town at BK lawyer conventions!
BOTTOM LINE is that even with GO bonds, you have to understand the risk. Uninsured Puerto Rico GO bonds suffered major losses. Just like Detroit and others.
Disclosure: We do NOT hold any of this Washington City (Cle Elum) bonds in any account. We DO hold substantial amounts of insured Puerto Rico Electric bonds in multiple accounts that to date have paid off on time and in full.
From Bondbuyer.com
A small city in Washington state filed for Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy after an adverse ruling from the arbitrator in a development dispute has the city facing insolvency.
Cle Elum, a city of 2,157 roughly 84 miles southeast of Seattle, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday.
City officials said they couldn’t reach an agreement with City Heights Holdings, LLC, over payment of a $25.9 million judgment related to a housing development.
In November, an arbitrator awarded the developer $22.2 million in damages at a 12% interest rate, which has since grown to the current total.
BTW, if anyone wants a brief history of muni bankruptcies, speak up. You have come to the right place.
I never understood how AGO withstood all the Puerto Rico default madness. It was too complex for me to figure out, so I just moved on.
Another rare, can’t possibly happen event MIGHT occur. An investment grade (SP AA-) municipal school district is threatening to declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy. Unknowable if this is posturing or will really occur.
From Bloomberg:
**************************************************
A New Jersey school district is threatening to file bankruptcy after years of state funding cuts, escalating a showdown with Governor Phil Murphy’s administration.
The Toms River Regional School District — located on the Jersey Shore — opted not to pass a budget that would raise taxes at its June 30 board meeting. Instead, school board president Ashley Lamb has authorized district staff to consult with bankruptcy attorneys and begin the process for filing for Chapter 9 protection, she said.
The move would provide the district “protection from creditors while developing a debt-adjustment plan,” Lamb said at the meeting. “We will not abandon our students or compromise their education while the state refuses to address the crisis they have created.”
School district officials say its state aid has been cut by $175 million in recent years. A spokesperson for the governor’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
Such a filing would be an unusual step, given that public-sector bankruptcies are very rare. Since November 2022, just two governments have filed for Chapter 9, a small city in Washington and Chester, Pennsylvania. Plus, the Toms River school district boasts an investment-grade credit rating, with debt graded AA- by S&P Global Ratings. The district has about $135 million of municipal-bond debt outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The classic case of a school district being lushly funded for many years finally getting some of the pie taken away and locals do not want to pay for it.
https://www.trschools.com/community/outside-the-bubble-a-lot-going-on-at-intermediate-east
https://www.trschools.com/arena/
Did you have that when you went to HS? Geezus.. no wonder they are broke. It is very interesting how one can go on facebook and locals explain the real story if you can weed through the misinformation. This keeps explaining why my muni search EXCLUDES education and hospitals. Reality does not seem to matter for quite a few of those operations.
Tex – Would you expect S&P to pretty quickly asterisk their credit rating based on this threat being issued by the School Board Chairman? As this just happened, they can’t be faulted for having Toms River rated AA-, but I would think they’d respond pretty quickly in their overall assessment of the credit, yes?
2WR, my experience is that the rating agencies downgrade AFTER they have filed BK in some cases. Maybe in this case, they have high confidence that the school district will not file BK, but as you suggested, they should at least put it on notice for possible downgrade.
One important note I should have added. Whenever a municipality does go BK, it is common for local’s that know about it first, put their bonds up for sale. You are looking at your screen and see an IG rated muni with an above market yield and you think GREAT, I’ll take some. Then a day or two later you find out what you bought. And the dealer will NOT bust the trade. The fact that you did NOT know about the BK is “your problem” not the sellers.
We do NOT own any of these Toms River school bonds in any account. But we do own an issue where this precise scenario played out. Local knew about BK, we bought and regretted it in a few days.
— “small city” ..”unusual step” ..”public-sector bankruptcies are very rare. ” Creative minimization. By using a 2022 cutoff date in its story, Bloomberg gets to omit Detroit and Vallejo.
— The School district seems to say we won’t cut expenses and we won’t raise taxes. (I wanted a steak for dinner yesterday, but I had to settle for grilled cheese. ) Not unreasonable for the State to tell the school district it can’t spend money on summer school until the school district adopts a legal balanced budget.
— A lot more of this coming down the road as local governments grapple with the loss of chunks of federal funding. Last year a small rural town stopped paying in its bonds when times got tough during a drought. No thought of raising taxes. The “General Obligation bond” backed by the taxing power is becoming the “Optical Illusion bond ” JMO. DYODD.
Bad title. It’s interesting speculation about what could happen when rate cuts restart after a pause.
“The wrong kind of Fed rate cuts are coming, says JPMorgan. What that means for stocks, bonds and the dollar.”
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025063025/the-wrong-kind-of-fed-rate-cuts-are-coming-says-jpmorgan-what-that-means-for-stocks-bonds-and-the-dollar
In this vein on a day when the stock indexes were quiet and MAGS was down, I noticed some nice gains in beaten down common stocks today: PFE +3.3%, UNH +4.5%, DOW +5.1%, LYB +5.8%, PEP +2.4%, CAG +2.8%, HSY +5.9%, SJM +4.8%, BLDR +8.8%, for example. Too early to call it a rotation, but there was a lot of it.
so many things at or near 52 week lows. STK, lots of bread and butter stuff.
I dabble in cag, dow, ADM, STK, trow, mrk, nvo
I keep looking at WEN..free cash flow of ~260 mil has to appeal to PE. SHAK free cash flow ~7.5 mil… Not perfect metrics but positive free cash flow way better than negative!!! FWIW
Picked up PFE at 24.25 that is my benchmark. If it drops close to that again I will buy more.
Rather vague basis when not mentioning tariffs- maybe just implied effects.
SPAM filter wins!
Tried several times posting for individual muni bond buyers. Blocked all of them including the version in Spanish. . . no Big Beautiful Blog Posts today. . .
Hope Tim can help. Would. Love seeing these
Petoskeymi–I’m trying to find the reason for Tex’s posts going to spam. Sorry for the hassle.
I’ve noticed recently that any post that is only a link is rejected.
Tex—I am looking through the spam and have pushed a number of them through—the damn thing really doesn’t like your post for some reason–I am looking for the reason. My apologies.