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2,664 thoughts on “READER INITIATED ALERTS”

  1. (Problems posting on Sandbox where it should be. . . )
    Last week I did a study on how utilities bought in 2008 have performed to date. It was part of my post proposing that using the “Gordon Dividend Growth” model is a reasonable approach to achieve higher total returns compared to preferreds. This prompts the question about how utilities currently look. I did a quick screen based on yesterday’s (9/6/24) close looking at all of the utilities in my database. To meet the initial screen they had to been paying dividends continuously for the last 5 years. And the dividends had to increase by at least 3% per year, although I allowed one “wart” year for this study where they did NOT grow>3%. I excluded ADR’s aka foreign issues that trade in the US. This gives a list of 55 issues. Four main points:

    1) This is NOT a buy list, you must do more due diligence.
    2) Need to understand why some issues are down up to 66% over the last 5 years. Not supposed to happen with utes.
    3) Many issues have sunk in the last 12 months more than the broad market. Not clear why, but gives a warning that they might fall further, aka do NOT buy today.
    4) High probability of one or more incorrect data points in this study. Caveat emptor. (Gotta use the paid service to get clean data, just kidding!)

    Data is formatted to import into a CSV file and sorted from highest to lowed div yield + 5 year div growth rate.

    Format is:

    Ticker, type of ute, S&P member, market cap in Billion $’s, yield + 5 YR div growth rate, current yield, 5 YR div growth rate, comment

    NRG,Electric,500,16.2,68,2.1,65.9,10X div increase in 2020
    NEP,Electric,None,2.3,29.5,15,14.5,MLP, renewables, down ~50% from 12 month high
    SWX,Nat Gas,MC400,5,19.7,3.6,16.1,
    KEN,Electric,None,1.3,15.5,15.5,0,Strange 2022 dividend, off ~66% from 5 year high
    UGI,Nat Gas,MC400,5.3,13.9,6.3,7.6,Div grew <3% one year
    NEE,Electric,500,165,13.6,2.6,11,
    EVRG,Electric,500,13.9,12.4,4.3,8.1,
    CPK,Nat Gas,SC600,2.7,12.3,2.2,10.1,
    AWR,Water,SC600,3,11.6,2.3,9.3,
    AWK,Water,500,28.2,11.4,2.1,9.3,
    ATO,Nat Gas,500,20.4,11.3,2.5,8.8,
    FTS,Electric,None,30.3,11.1,5.3,5.8,
    OGS,Nat Gas,MC400,4,11,3.8,7.2,
    WEC,Electric,500,29.9,10.7,3.6,7.1,
    CWEN.A,Electric,SC600,5.5,10.6,6.5,4.1,
    TXNM,Electric,MC400,3.8,10.6,3.8,6.8,
    WTRG,Water,MC400,10.7,10.4,3.4,7,
    ES,Electric,500,24,10.2,4.2,6,
    XEL,Electric,500,35.4,9.9,3.5,6.4,
    POR,Electric,MC400,5,9.8,4.2,5.6,
    BKH,Electric,MC400,4.2,9.7,4.4,5.3,
    SR,Nat Gas,MC400,3.8,9.7,4.6,5.1,Div grew <3% one year
    AEE,Electric,500,22.3,9.6,3.2,6.4,
    LNT,Electric,500,15.1,9.5,3.3,6.2,
    CMS,Electric,500,20.4,9.4,3,6.4,
    AEP,Electric,500,54.9,9.3,3.4,5.9,
    AES,Electric,500,12,9.3,4.3,5,Down ~ 28% from 12 month high
    RGCO,Nat Gas,None,0.2,9.3,4.1,5.2,Div grew <3% one year
    AVA,Electric,SC600,3.1,9.2,4.9,4.3,
    IDA,Electric,MC400,5.6,9.1,3.2,5.9,
    SRE,Electric,500,52.6,9.1,3,6.1,
    SJW,Water,SC600,1.9,9,2.7,6.3,
    CWT,Water,SC600,3.2,8.9,2.1,6.8,
    MSEX,Water,SC600,1.1,8.8,2.1,6.7,
    NI,Nat Gas,500,15,8.3,3.2,5.1,
    PEG,Electric,500,40.3,7.8,3,4.8,
    AQN,Electric,None,5.5,7.6,6.9,0.7,Down ~ 28% from 12 month high, Div grew <3% one year
    EIX,Electric,500,33.8,7.6,3.6,4,
    ETR,Electric,500,26.2,7.6,3.7,3.9,Div grew <3% one year
    MGEE,Electric,SC600,3.2,6.9,2.1,4.8,
    ARTNA,Water,None,0.4,6.7,3.2,3.5,Down ~ 24% from 12 month high, Div grew <3% one year
    SO,Electric,500,97.9,6.5,3.3,3.2,Div grew <3% one year
    YORW,Water,None,0.6,6.2,2.2,4,
    TA,Electric,None,3.6,5.1,2.7,2.4,
    NJR,Nat Gas,MC400,4.6,5,3.6,1.4,Div grew <3% one year
    BIPC,Nat Gas,None,5.4,4.1,4.1,0,Div grew <3% one year
    TAC,Electric,None,2.7,3.9,2,1.9,
    OTTR,Electric,SC600,3.3,2,2.4,-0.4,Down ~ 23% from 12 month high, Div grew <3% one year
    VST,Electric,500,26.1,1.2,1.2,0,Down ~ 31% from 12 month high

    1. Tex-
      Great post! Again!
      I turned your data into an Excel spreadsheet and looked at this one:
      EVRG S&P 500, CY 4.3%, 5y DGR 8.1%, sum 12.4%
      The CY is still nice. Price has trended up off the Oct 2023 low.

  2. CMSD is selling above CMSC but with 18 cents less accrued dividends. (I’m long CMSC in an oversized position.)

    1. Immense duration. Better senior bonds my more seniority and shorter maturity. 4.7% March 2043 is offered at 93.34 for a ytm of 5.3%.

      1. Without disputing that, my point was that if you hold CMSD, you could sell those shares, buy a very similar product (CMSC), and effectively make an 18 cent per share profit.

  3. Guys, does anyone know what is going on inside BPY?

    BPY related prefs sit still at pretty good valuations with current yields around 10%..while other RE prefs are going bananas… ERG, BNH, BNJ

    1. BNH and BNJ for the longest time were way underpriced. I was pounding the table on those at near 8% yields not too long ago. Those are solid investment grade debentures backed by BN and rated Baa2. BPY perpetuals are rated in the junkier range, not backed by BN, and are marked as such.

      I think what we are seeing here is all and any low hanging better quality fruit with higher yield getting scooped up the last two-three days. There are a bunch of others as well, some reinsurance perpetuals etc. that all have seen big 5% pops just in less than the past week.

      1. just an FYI.
        BNH and BNJ are not equivalent. One is treated as debt, the other is treated as equity.

    1. good comment… eccv/sjnk pair has seen eccv outperform since october 2022…on 1yr horizon it went from 2 sigma rich on 8/5 to near 3 sigma cheap on 8/23 …currently near 1.5 sigma cheap

      1. They’re all about the same. Price movement can make some of them a small amount better than others but not much their variance is small. I gave up trading between them because there wasn’t enough movement.

  4. Noticed recent that LXP-C has caught a lot of bidding. I’ve been in this since late 2022 and added as recently as this June with basis at low $45s (about 7.2% YOC)…now pushing $50. It’s busted so likely no call. Wonder if she tries for 55-60 again? I can’t find any news to cause the sudden run-up.

  5. US 2Yr/10Yr Spread Today…

    At 10:25 EST, the spread went positive after a couple of years of inversion…let’s see if it will finish that way after the close 🙂

    1. I can’t figure out how to start a new thread…..no link at bottom of page.

      anyway. MTB-J. M&T website notes common div ok from board. No mention of MTB J. I called their investor dept phone, twice, leaving message.. No return call. Anybody heard/seen info?

  6. JOLTS Job Openings:

    * (-237K) – Greater than expected job opening losses
    * (7.67M) – Lowest # of job openings since Jan 21
    * JOLT job openings trending down for last 2 years…
    Mar 22 (12.2M), Jul 22 ( 11.5M), Oct 22 (10.5M), Jan 23 (10.4M), Apr 23 (9.9M), Jul 23 (8.8M), Oct 23 (8.69M), Jan 24 (8.75M), Apr 24 (7.92M), Jul 24 ( 7.67M)
    * Employers now back in driver’s seat for # employee hires & wages
    * Suspect Powell & friends will shift their focus to JOBS moreso than INFLATION for the remainder of 2024 & 2025.

  7. Top 10 MMFs Yields…

    1. VMRXX – 5.26%
    2. VMFXX – 5.25%
    3. VUSXX – 5.25%
    4. GABXX – 5.19%
    5. IDSXX – 5.16%
    6. FZDXX – 5.16%
    7. SWVXX – 5.12%
    8. DTGXX – 5.11%
    9. TSCXX – 5.06%
    10. PRTXX – 5.04%

    1. I’m holding ANG/PRB at Schwab – not being borrowed. I would be happy if it was being borrowed from me at 36.5%. I’m no expert on shorting (or even long investing), but seems odd to borrow a reset preferred yielding 6.7%. Let us know if you find out something!

    2. How does that work? I hold ANG/PRB in my Fidelity account and it has never been borrowed. Do you have to allow the borrowing? And were you paid 36.5% of the value for the period of the borrowing? Thank you.

      1. You do have to allow it; was simple to set up, although I can’t recall just how–I clicked on link Fid kept sending me
        Interestingly, my ANG-B hasn’t been borrowed, altho various other stocks have. No idea how they prioritize it.

    3. Most of ANG/PRB that was borrowed has already been returned, so it must have been some short term thing which is too bad because 36.5% was a nice return.

    4. Not a trade I’d be making, but possible that someone would short betting that Brookfield delists. Would likely get some indication of that as A nears reset.

  8. PCG.PRA was down over 5% yesterday. Has anyone seen any news that could explain that price decline?

    1. Nimzo-
      I sold my PCG-A the day before. Could be profit taking. The other PCG preferreds didn’t drop. The common looks fine.

      1. good comment..pcg.pra/pff pair went from 1 sigma rich in late august to near 1.5 sigma cheap on 8.30..currently near 1 sigma cheap

    2. this looks like some portfolio balancing of a big fund like PFF
      the volume was 12 times normal ;4300 vs 51000.
      and many of these Preferred funds that follow an index rebalance at the end of the month..

  9. MHLA Maiden bonds had crazy volume today. Over 70k vs. 5k. Went ex-div today. End of month shenanigans or justified by news?

  10. ARGH !
    BANK OF AMERICA, 5.25%25
    **CALLED**
    @100 EFF: 09/13/2024
    CUSIP 06051V6E1
    Quantity called 20,000.00000
    Call date September 13, 2024

    1. Very nice, and the large bank preferreds are going up and up. Picked up several at $16, $17 and they are making their way to par.

    2. BofA CD, not to be confused with a BofA bond or preferred…. just a newly lowered rate notch on the called CDs gun handle

      1. Yes, CD’s are no longer the great parking place option for cash, it was fun while it lasted though. Utilities are now looking like a fairly safe albeit lower dividend option though. Been adding to my UTG, SCE-N, SR-A & DNP positions with some of the called CD money.

    3. Have a couple more calls to add:
      Bond: Bank of America 6%, 06055JCD9
      Call date 9/1/24

      and

      CD: Bank of America 5.25%, 06051XBH4
      Call date 9/15/24

    4. Yeah, I have a 5.50% JPM CD with March maturity callable in November – Near certainty they call it then…bummer.

  11. ECCV is on sale. I just added another bit at 22.68. Compare to ECCF: both mature 1/31/2029. The Internal Rate of Return for ECCV is 8.13% (assuming 22.68 purchase price) and the IRR for ECCF is 7.95% (assuming 25.04 purchase price). Here’s the kicker: ECCV is senior to ECCF in the debt stack.

    DYODD

      1. I think you have to do some jiggery-pokery to get the bond yield calculator to give you an accurate result. In particular, you need to account for the fact that the ex-div date has already passed for ECCF’s 8/31/24 payment, so you won’t receive it if you buy today.

        One of my strategies has been to watch the ECCV/ECCF pair and buy ECCV when its IRR jumps above that of ECCF. That has worked out pretty well so far.

        I’m not willing to give up any yield just to get a monthly payer, but that’s just my preference.

      2. Better than what, Gary? 7.95% YTM looks right to me {note there is no accrued} but I only get 7.99% YTM on ECCV (taking accrued into account)

          1. Thanks MB I wasn’t aware ECC has an ATM program for the preferred. I am ok when a company has the program for common shares as it saves time and money when trying to raise money. but having it for issuing more term preferred bothers me a little.
            I borrow money and invest it hoping to make more to pay off what I borrowed and a little extra for my efforts and promise that at a set date to return the money yet I keep increasing borrowing and what I have to pay off at that set date also has increased.
            ECC has always been good at calling preferred notes and BB early but still need to keep an eye on these investments. Seeing they have been using Riley as their sales agent makes it all the more interesting when you’re trying to sell securities with an agent who is having troubles themselves.

  12. PPL Capital Junior Sub note maturing 2067, CUSIP: 69352PAC7
    Floating 3 month SOFR + .261261+2.665
    Current yield= 8.261

    Off 3 and change today @ ~ 97.00

    We own it in one account.

  13. US 2yr/10yr Spread — now only (-0.03), we may finally cross into positive territory and undo the inverted yield curve which began way back on 7/3/22.

    1. newbie–I wonder if that means short term rates move down and longer rates stay flat?

      1. Whidbey Islander — maybe all rates across the board float down with the 2yr dropping a bit faster than longer rates with impending Fed cuts coming down the pipe.

          1. Westie 18 — continued decrease in inflation, sluggish economic growth, & greater unemployment may lower rates on long term end of curve, while a faster drop in rates on shorter end of the curve courtesy of imminent
            FED rate cuts. Wish I had a crystal ball to know for sure.
            🙂

            1. Newbie
              All good thoughts…
              But…..
              If there is stagflation, that stops GDP growth, reduces tax receipts and encourages our gov’t (currently running a deficit 5-7% of GDP) to want to “help out” by increasing spending.
              And….
              Falling US interest rates decreases the exchange value of the $, encouraging foreign investors to sell US assets as their relative returns fall.
              And..
              Are there any signs anywhere that the US intends to take any meaningful effort to reduce its deficit spending?

              Won’t the above put pressure on the ability to sell long-term US gov’t debt?
              i.e.
              Causing long rates not to decline, but possibly increase?

              1. What an archaic idea. You mean to tell me supply and demand can actually impact price even when it comes to the Treasury market? Don’t tell any politician anywhere – they’ll laugh you out of the room.. Pshaw……couldn’t be….. lol

  14. Not sure if anyone posted this yet

    Realty Income Announces Full Redemption of its Series A Preferred Stock on 9/30/24

  15. https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19830584-realty-income-announces-full-redemption-of-series-preferred-stock#hasComeFromMpArticle=false

    O / PR to be redeemed

    The shares will be redeemed at $25.00 per share, plus accrued and unpaid dividends to September 30, 2024 in an amount equal to approximately $0.3750 per share, for a total payment of approximately $25.375 per share. The final dividend payment date will be September 30, 2024, with a record date of September 13, 2024.

      1. Timing! I grabbed some of these O perpetuals awhile back at $24 handle and never circled around to fill it out. Based on some of the DD posted in this space, it looked a bit frightening. The common stock now appears to have been a massive opportunity in $48s. All you could eat there with a 7% yield.

        Well if pig can get back into EP-C @ $48 handle, that aggregate YTM still appears to be 6.11%. Not too shabby for a shorter fixed duration.

        1. I think EP-C is closer to 6.3% YTM at $48.10 (current ask) if you strip out the accrued interest.

        1. KTH is another one you might want to look at. I’m seeing an ask of $28.40. I calculate a stripped YTM of around 6.5% at that price.

          1. Dick, that’s a big Grid holding and I got the idea from him (still long). Grid, Grid are you out there?? No judgement and no limits… You are missed and admired ⭐️

  16. I believe PSB has defaulted on their mortgage based on the below tweet which seems to be describing the CMBS loan PSB took out when Blackstone acquired them and levered them up massively.

    Hopefully no one still owns the PSB preferreds:

    $2.18 billion mortgage loan — massive office/industrial portfolio failed to pay off at its maturity this month. Includes an additional $1.96 billion of additional debt for a total debt package of $4.69 billion.

    This SBLL loan is backed by 138 properties defaulted after failing to payoff at maturity today.

    Property Types: Industrial and Office/Flex
    Number of Properties: 138
    Size: 16.4 million square feet
    Property States: CA, FL, VA, TX, MD, WA

    Deal Type: SBLL
    Original Mortgage Balance: $2.73B
    Current Mortgage Loan Balance: $2.18B ($133/SF)
    Additional Total New Debt (non-collateral): $1.96B ($119/SF)
    Total DEBT: $4.69B

    Acquisition Basis: $7.58B
    Payment Status: Performing Matured
    Rate Cap Expiration Date: 8/15/2024

    DSCR: 0.76x
    NOI: Down 15% from Underwritten

    Maturity Date: Aug 2024
    UW Valuation (Jun 2022): $4.2B ($256/SF)
    UW DSCR assuming SOFR was 2.50%: 1.10x
    Source: CRED iQ
    https://x.com/cred_iq/status/1828476391026749465?s=46&t=aoFyMYmhrkRgTu7LU5zKlw

    Description of PSB loan:
    https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/bx-trust-2022-psb-us-cmbs-02-08-2022

    1. Landlord Investor – I was tempted to pick up some of the old PSB preferreds when the company was taken private, until I looked at their financial statements. They filed for a short period of time with the SEC and they pretty much financed the whole transaction with debt. The original company had a great management team and they basically operated debt-free (except for the occasional use of their Line of Credit). Not sure of the current price level of the preferreds, but they may not have much value.

    2. That’s a leveraged buyout gone bad; there will be many more, just this one is massive.
      Crisis = Opportunity

      1. Ab, lead underwriters of this massive 2.73B loan were BOA, CITI, Barclays and MS 2yrs ago.
        Berkshire has been selling their holdings in BOA past 6 months. Anything like this is going to have a trickle down effect.

    3. Thanks for your post. Aren’t these still traded under PSXBP, PSBYP, and PSBZP? The price has yet to tank even with this news. Anyone know why this might be?

        1. Thanks CharlesM. Agreed on fallout from PE leveraged deals. My comment regarding the price relates to why has it yet to further nosedive from the $13 level? The tweet came out around noon yesterday. There have been several trades since.

          1. People unaware, delisted stocks on the pink sheets are hard to buy and sell, who knows.
            Time flies when you’re having fun. Didn’t realize it’s been 2 yrs since BX took PSB private.
            This is a risk you take on these. I hold a few BB’s from take private deals, no preferred.

  17. SWKHL 9.0% senior BB 2027 callable
    last 25.52, ex-div 9/14 for 56 cents

    WHFCL 7.875% senior BB 2028, call 9/15/25
    last 25.46, ex-div 8/31 for 49 cents

      1. Nathan-
        When I bought SWKHL in Dec 2023, I was new to III and didn’t see that discussion…LOL. Since then price has hovered around par and the common hasn’t blown up. Another 2-1/2 years is starting to sound like a long time.

  18. FHLB issuances in real time. 5.55% for 5 yrs fixed callable monthly, I believe. Given rates are at a monthly low, I’m going to take a shot this won’t get called. I’m essentially selling an option to the issuer.

    Note the floaters are coming at SOFR +12 -17 bps . They were +0 bps until recently. 17 bps is high . I’m just guessing it’s the expectation of a drop in SOFR soon.

  19. PSEC-A closed up 6.11% at $ 19.64 on above average volume and is holding up the gains after hours. I tried many sites to find recent news without success. There was an insider (CFO) purchase of the preferred late June and a big purchase of the common by the CEO in May.

  20. PBI-B goes X div tomorrow…. $0.41875 coupon…. YTM taken into account accrued = 9.43% It does look as though the coupon capture crowd already made a move on this one the last 2 days, but you never know…. I’ve mentioned the very small PBI bond 5.25% 1/15/37 outstanding that trades much cheaper than PBI-B. It also has a super wide Bid/Asked spread but there are 15 offered at 62 for a 10.91%YTM and 31 behind it ever so slightly higher.. No listed bid but bid’s been hovering around 59 or less………. CUSIP 72447XAB3

  21. CIMO now trading. All yours, Martin!

    According to my calculations, looks like a good swap to CIMO:
    CIMO ask (25.17) = 9.21% stripped yield.
    CIMN bid (25.10) = 9.03% stripped yield.

    Oh, I think you recently sold CIMN when was over par.

    1. Not a big difference if you remember to account for the redemption in 5 years or possible call CIMO looks only a few cents better. I bought a little but not a lot at that price. Holding on to CIM-B for now.

    2. MBG
      Lower yield on a lower price? And not much to strip out.
      Maybe I need another cup of java….

      1. Gary,

        I know it only started accruing on 8/19 so it’s only a few days of interest to strip out, but for my calculations I determined the stripped and YTC yields as though it started accruing earlier (8/1). That way resulted in having the 1st payment be for an entire 3-month amount (not sure if that’s the case, or if it will be a few days’ less than a full payment). That made each day’s accrual be the correct amount. That 1st payment accrues through ~11/14 (assumes 11/15 pay date).

        I’m not certain of this way as being correct. I’m better at these calculations when it’s for a normal 3-month period. Then it’s just the formulas doing the work, without figuring out if/how to adjust them.

        I think Martin knows his calculations and relies on his yields, though.

        1. Less than 10% of the allotment has been sold so I wouldn’t be surprised if the price is sluggish as the underwriters hurry to bail out. I estimate a 15 to 20 cent advantage for CIMO and it’s been running 5 to 10 cents. A dime isn’t much but baby bonds are less volatile than perpetuals because of the redemption date.

        2. 9.250% per year. Interest will accrue from August 19, 2024 and will be payable quarterly in arrears on February 15, May 15, August 15 and November 15 of each year, beginning on November 15, 2024.

  22. Franklin Resources Inc.’s stock was down 7.87%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, after the multinational holding company said Ken Leech, co-chief investment officer of its Western Asset Management Co. unit, has taken a leave of absence to focus on an investigation into past trade allocations involving Treasury derivatives.

    Franklin Resources
    BEN

    -7.87%
    said Leech has received a Wells notice of potential securities-law violations from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

    A Wells notice indicates that the SEC intends to recommend a civil action against the recipient.

    1. The company might get a slap on the wrist for not properly overseeing him. Would they have losses being hidden they might have to disclose?

    2. — Wonder where the 2 billion in the closed Macro Opportunity “strategy” goes now. Do they tell the clients. Or do they just switch the money into the Fredonia International Small Cap Value Fund and put it in a footnote in the next quarterly letter. Wonder if it will be a taxable event for customers.
      —“Trade Allocation” is really old school. In the old days, they would sit in the brokerage back office and match paper order tickets depending on who needed gains and who needed losses. No need to worry about unused loss carryovers.
      — Western Assets used to have some great CEFs. Its been decades since I’ve even thought of any WA CEFs.

        1. Don’t call me an upstart. I thought my razor was dull until I heard him speak.
          Hail Groucho ✅

      1. regarding this comment
        Western Assets used to have some great CEFs. Its been decades since I’ve even thought of any WA CEFs.
        amen.. i got shafted when they repeatedly cut distribution on a non agency mbs cef they managed (DMO)

        1. Have had good success buying WA (and any CEFs for that matter) at historically relevant discounts. Buy or own during premium periods and you are asking to be mistreated.

    1. I am extremely curious to see how this goes. When it comes to RILY I don’t believe it until it’s in an 8-K…

  23. Can’t say it comes as a big surprise, JP Morgan Chase is calling their 5.55% Nov 29 2024 CD per August 30.

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