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Another outsized AAA muni yield comes to market: Fidelity showing a AAA Arizona single family offering at 5.3 on the long end (2053)
LT, Thanks!!! You are the best at these.
Some news on muni tax exemption from WSJ, hopefully is a good sign, but it is still too early to be sure
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-15-25/card/muni-tax-break-garners-key-support-BrRB6SZNrlWHxCFtL3kz
BYG,
Thanks a lot. I don’t know this ends the debate but I won’t hedge as much as I’d planned.
I have a subscription to wsj and didn’t read it today!
Does the (non-AMT) aspect of this issue enter into its pricing? Also, FWIW, Fido does not show this with any rating from S&P, just the AA1 rating from Moodys’
Non amt, but also callable at any time…but won’t be called, from experience , without a 200+ bps move. Frankly, the shortest call time I’ve had on a housing bond was 3+ years or more because the funds were never actually lent out at high enough rates. Unless the funds are lent , IRC sec 143 requires the call after a certain number of months (42 months, from memory)
Trading WAS halted in CMSC! Someone dumped a HUGE amount into the buzzsaw until it reached $18.79 and was halted! It has recovered now and it is now down only 4c……
Fan59,
Trading was halted for 5 minutes with Halt Code “M” which is a problem since there’s M1 and M2 but I’m not aware of any code M without a 1 or 2.
M1 : corporate action
M2: quote not available
I’m going to say it was M2.
I looked through time and sales and I didn’t see any trades on the tape at the $18.79 price.
Perhaps that was busted by the exchange for being out of line?
There’s no news, is there?
lt –
No news from th parent, CMS…..maybe no trades at $18.79, but surely some outsized selling pressure, keeping an eye on CMSC to see if any whale seller might possibly resume…
I bot SREA at 20.23 (7.11 cy) as the SREA/VCLT pair near 3 year low and VCLT appears to have put in a bottom (close above 73.11 confirms)
mjtroll, I have a full position on SREA and it is a long time hold. But, I do not understand the significant drop in its price. as compared to other utilities. The 52 week price range is $25.24 to $19.52. A quick review of its EPS, cash position, capital spending plans, and EPS growth forecast don’t show any significant issues. I am not aware of any involvement in the Calif wildfires.
Any insight that you can share on the price drop and your confidence in buying SREA will be appreciated.
Larry-
SREA is a long-dated IG junior BB with CY 7.1%. In the current environment, I think markets are setting prices based on these simplest of criteria. What is there to support the price of SREA that distinguishes it from other long-dated IG junior BBs. Nothing? Similar with CY from my spreadsheet:
MGR 7.3%
MGRE 7.4%
WRB-G 6.6%
KKRS 6.9%
BNJ 7.5%
RZB 5.8%
RZC 7.1%
The average is 6.9%.
US Dollar ~ another new 52-week low today…
* 1/9/25 high at 109.96
* 4/14/25 low at 99.79
Newbie, Noticed Canadian Dollar (CAD) has strengthened about 4.5% since the Troubles started. Nice little dividend raise to counter recent Canadian stock price declines. Currency hedge during troubled times was one of the things I considered when initially buying Canadian Banks many yrs ago.
PP ~ agree, we have to work with the evolving financial conditions of each day in 2025…
🙂
PP GBNXF is one I am sitting on holding tight.
Interesting Charles M. Had to look this one up–nice yield at 7.9%. Are you looking for some capital gains as well (I assume)?
Tim not really looking at capital gains for this one. Just wanted to diversity from US and find a decent yield. Maybe an added kicker if the dollar weakens letting the Loonie gain. This one also has holdings in the US and Canadian railroad has it as a holding in their employees retirement accounts.
I have to give credit though where credit is due. I didn’t find it, I learned about it from momma bear Bea.
Charles–great that Bea could contribute for you.
Re: GBNXF
Charles- 1) Is GBNXF subject to a 15% Canadian withholding tax for taxable accounts I assume?
2) VLCC’s are limited to certain destination ports due to their size. Are you concerned about a trade war with China potentially affecting oil exports from the South Gateway Texas Terminal?
Dave this is in an IRA. Just have to wait and see how this all plays out.
Charles (et all), yes I am already a holder of Gibson Energy. So far held up well in the turmoil.
GBNXF is down 9.25% YTD, which means that holders going into 2025 have already lost more than the dividend pays annually. It might be worth a trade here but given the uncertainty around tariffs and Canada’s upcoming election there’s plenty of risk.
CW, as stated, its held up well through this turmoil. Perhaps I have different perspective since I bought in early March and am currently up over 8%. Considering where the oil market and general market has gone since then, that is a win to this point anyway. Probably wouldn’t add to it quite yet though, would have to go much lower.
good comment..it has underperformed its relevant index etf AMLP since august 2020
fwiw…GBNXF/AMLP pair has seen GBNXF outperform since january 2012 but underperform since august 2020 going from 2 sigma rich to to sigma cheap last month from which point it has bounced.. on absolute basis close above 15.87 confirms..recently recommended by Trapping Value on S/A
OceanFirst Financial 7% FTF OCFCP preferred redemption 5/15/2025
https://www.morningstar.com/news/globe-newswire/9421340/oceanfirst-financial-corp-announces-redemption-of-all-outstanding-57370-shares-of-700-fixed-to-floating-rate-non-cumulative-perpetual-preferred-stock-of-oceanfirst-financial-corporation
Someone selling SLMNP at 880. Perhaps someone here. Net price is close to 865.50 given the ex date is Tuesday. That’s a decent risk profile for me… I’d take the capital loss by tendering if we got credit quality seriously deteriorating, only a smallish loss. I might even tender if I found something better to buy!
Lt big chemical company, exporter out of US and built plants in China. Wonder how the Trade Wars are going to affect it. Sounds like the name of a reality TV series!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LyondellBasell
Yeah, that does worry me and the stock has dumped pretty dramatically. If I could buy it at the 820 ish bid, I could average down and tender it for cash.
Here’s one perspective:
You’re getting about 2.60 excess yield per year above a money fund, so if you can offset the capital loss you’d be ahead by holding it one year and tendering it for cash because the dividends are taxed at a preferential rate.
Lt, now I know why you live in Vegas. Hope you enjoy your vacation after that uncomfortable ride.
LT- that was me that sold. Hope some folks here got them. I bot it at $890.. I still like the risk profile.. just used it as a source of liquidity to fund names down 7%+.
I have had bids in for a long while with no fills. I like the downside protection SLMNP offers and the yield is pretty good. My average for it is right around the put price of $848. $865 net is still a pretty good price considering the yield and the downside protection. I will keep accumulating it as long as the parent remains in good financial shape. LYB dividend is over 9% at the moment.
Thanks for the info. We may be the only buyers and sellers!
I looked at the 10-k and they had a 900 mill write down last quarter, so still
FCF and earnings look good. I’m sure tariffs will affect them but , like our admin, i don’t know how.
Nice to know I don;t need to rush out and buy a big screen. Best Buy should be up.
you may be the only buyers and sellers avg 10 day volume 11 90 day 5 (don’t know if that hundreds but it appears that it is not)
On 3/27, I bought a share at $810. I have no idea why such a thing happened, especially when considering my GTC order was for a higher price than that, but I am glad it happened to me. My average cost for just four shares is now $957.50 which is not great, but after the 5/1 dividend, I will be able to sell them back at the tender price and still have positive cashflow from this investment, so I have that going for me.
Don’t tender your shares of SLMNP, as you will find a buyer well above the tender price. I had a bid for $865 and I did not get a fill. I am starting to wonder if Fidelity is posting my bids.
I am not planning to tender them back, but it is nice to have it as an option.
My recent purchase at $810 was in my 401k brokerage account at Fidelity. Whatever that is worth.
ATCOL sold down to 22.45 on 1275 shares over one minute. Quite a sight. Closed at 24.23. The ask never fell.
Unbelievable. The day has finally arrived. After an eternity of trading near $30 a share, the MS-F preferred has fallen just below par. This is a fixed 6.875% coupon and as I previously linked the original MS PR, one of the series not going to float.
Per Quantum:
Notes: April 28, 2023 — Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series F (and related depositary shares) (and related depositary shares) is one of the preferred stock (and related depositary shares) and debt securities issued by Morgan Stanley that will not transition to the Replacement Rate by operation of law or otherwise. After the LIBOR Cessation Date, dividends or interest on these instruments will continue to accrue at the Initial fixed rate.
MS-I and MS-E all trading at lows and likely good buys for the risk averse who does not mind them being called away – though IMHO do not see them being called any time soon. Rates need to fall quite some (when they can issue news ones with coupon below 5.5-6%.
Also consider MS-Q if you want longer to 1st call and MS-K if you prefer appreciation potential.
disclosure: I own most of these and adding
good comment MS-Q/VCLT pair has traded in narrow band since may 2022 ..its currently trading near 2 sigma cheap ..if we go bakc to inception in january 2017 its trading near fair value .. all time low was set in march 2020 (like most individual preferreds).. probably worth a trade although there are many similar lower coupon preferred are trading near 3 year lows
??? MS-F has been just above par all year, and at best was in the 28s 3 years ago… don’t know how you can say it’s been at 30 for eternity…look at the chart…are you confusing it with another MS preferred? Other financial companies with similar credit rating following same below par plunge, nothing screaming bargain here, but interesting either way.
MS-F (and similar MS-E, MS-I etc) It used to be a floater before LIBOR to SOFR conversion when they said it would be fixed. As a floater, I guess it should have priced higher (as it was).
QOL note on the conversion is April 2023, so what it traded before that should not be that relevant.
I paid 21.79 (21.65 stripped) for EBNNF 4.96 FTF 9/1/2027 5YR +4.04 6.75 CY 11.76 CTC assuming 25 terminal value …EBBNF/SJNK pair has seen ebbnf outperform since 5/2023 and is currently trading near 2 sigma cheap
Oh so it was you stealing everything before it got down to my 21.76 bid? 🙂 Could you explain some of your abbreviations?
I think I understand most of them, but I’m not sure of the +4.04. I think it resets to the 5 year treasury plus 3.15%? And is CTC supposed to be YTC?
But probably it’s just the notation that’s confusing. Anyway, at 21.79 I get it as a 12.6% YTC (9/27) assuming reinvestment at 6%.
Nate, Look at this.
https://www.quantumonline.com/ParentCoSearch.cfm?tickersymbol=ENB
Pull each one up and check which ones reset with the 5yr US treasury or the Canadian.
MJ is making an assumption these will reset at a higher rate or they will be called. All 3 have reset in 2022, 2023 and 2024 so the next resets will be 5 yrs from those dates. The one that reset in 2024 of course has the highest yield now and will hold it for another 4 yrs. The one that reset in 2022 has the lowest rate and will not come up for reset for another 2yrs 5 months.
I assume your looking at collecting all 3 ?
Check the rates on this page.
Some trade on the Pink sheets, but some only trade in Canada and pay in Canadian dollars.
Any yield increase can be wiped out by a currency valuation change.
(though if the USD weakens, it goes the other way as well)
https://www.enbridge.com/investment-center/stock-and-dividend-information/preferred-hybrid-shares
Also Justin I think some people have said Fidelity and Schwab don’t get the Canadian tax withholding reversed as allowed by treaty but that could get thrown out the window as well.
If held in an IRA. With Schwab and Fidelity, that has no impact if held in a taxable account.
Thanks! I had been holding EBGEF, but sold it a couple months ago planning to switch to either EBBNF or EBBGF once there was an opportunity. I thought this was that opportunity. Here’s how I’m showing them today:
Ticker Last Coupon CY Reset Rate YTC*
EBBGF $23.30 6.70% 7.60% 6/28 5Y+3.14% 11.00%
EBBNF $21.70 5.86% 6.82% 9/27 5Y+3.15% 12.76%
EBGEF $23.06 6.68% 7.32% 3/29 5Y+2.82% 9.20%
We can mostly ignore the YTC since I don’t think they are likely to actually be called, but my simple theory is that based on the reset rates EBBGF and EBBNF should be trading at about the same price and higher than EBGEF once they all reset. I’m chose EBBNF since it’s currently priced lower and thus has more room to go up to match. Does this logic seem reasonable?
I hadn’t considered trying to hold all three. I try to restrict myself to 2% per issuer, and holding just one issue makes life a little simpler. I guess there is a reasonable argument that splitting between EBBGF and EBBNF might add some useful diversity depending on what happens to the 5YR rate over time. I don’t think there’s a good argument for EBGEF?
YTC*: My YTC (which is actually YTR here) is calculated in a nonstandard way so probably don’t match others. I’m using XIRR and actual dividends, but leveling the playing field by assuming a fixed 6% return on all dividends.
Bare in mind that ENB has a whole raft of preferreds, some in Cdn and these few in USD, and many of those that reset have been outstanding already for more than one cycle of resets without ever being called… For example, when EBBGF first reset on 1/1/18, the 5 year was around 2.50% and yet ENB chose not to call… Although, I’ve not done the research overall, I do know that historically, they have not called many of the preferreds.. As I remember, it has happened, but personally, I own all 3 without expectations they’ll ever be called. And you know my bias for buying anticipated to be called issues across the board.
https://www.enbridge.com/investment-center/faqs/~/media/97BFF197ECAA49AE99FA18A5B65F1953.ashx
I stand corrected 5yr + 3.15 is correct.. good article on S/A..I agree with your YTC 12.6
Expect A 10% Annual Return On This Enbridge Preferred Stock
New 52 week low ~ USD now at 100.10
SPLP-A will still be tradeable and not going dark – right?
Steel Partners Announces Voluntary NYSE Delisting and SEC Deregistration
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Apr. 11, 2025– Steel Partners Holdings L.P. (NYSE: SPLP), a diversified global holding company (“SPLP” or the “Company”) announced today that it has given formal notice to the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) of its intention to voluntarily delist its (a) Common units, no par value (the “Common Units”) and (b) 6.0% Series A Preferred Units (the “Series A Units” and together with the Common Units the “Units”) from the NYSE and to deregister under Section 12(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”). Following the de-listing from the NYSE, SPLP expects to quote the Common Units and Series A Units on the OTCQX platform (the “OTCQX”). SPLP plans on filing a Form 25 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on or about April 21, 2025. The last day of trading in SPLP’s Common Units on the NYSE will be on or about May 1, 2025. When SPLP files a Form 15 on or about May 1, 2025, its filing obligations under the Exchange Act will immediately be suspended or terminated, including the filing of all reports on Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K. On July 30, 2025 the deregistration of the Units is expected to become effective.
Full press release can be found here…
https://ir.steelpartners.com/news-releases/news-release-details/steel-partners-announces-voluntary-nyse-delisting-and-sec
Sold my positions this morning….
after that crazy split stunt, it was only a matter of time…
Any thoughts on how this delisting might effect their willingness/probability to redeem on 2/7/26 at 25?
I got antsy and sold SPLP-A on March 14.
me too based on valuation vs sjnk..got lucky
Why not just hold the preferred until it matures? That is only like 11 months away. Aren’t they just trying to save a few bucks? Going to the OTC “OTCQX” most likely means it is still tradeable I would imagine.
If you trusted them enough to pay the preferred I don’t quite understand why you don’t trust them enough to redeem it in 11 months.
But – they don’t have to redeem in cash – they can give you (now delisted) SPLP shares.
Well that is not optimal and probably explains why I was never interested in it. I did not know that. Thanks.
Yes, they can redeem SPLP-A with common units which will still be tradeable on OTC instead of NYSE – is this your understanding?
It should be tradeable,
Mandatory Redemption
If not earlier redeemed, on the date that is the ninth (9th) anniversary of the original issuance date of the SPLP preferred units, SPLP shall redeem all of the SPLP preferred units at a redemption price equal to $25.00 per SPLP preferred unit plus an amount equal to accumulated and unpaid distributions, if any, on such SPLP preferred unit to, but excluding, the redemption date, in cash or in common units or a combination thereof, at the sole discretion of the SPLP GP Board.
fc didn’t they have the option to call and pay in common shares? I don’t really recall because I wasn’t interested.
I bought some SCE-PM at 22.75 yesterday in the ROTH we are leaving for the grand kids. Trust preferred and cumulative so even if they get suspended over the fires from Jan. they should eventually get paid. Almost 8.25% return.
FYI if you hold or held your shares in a taxable E*TRADE account, check your K-1’s very carefully. When E*Trade accounts moved over due to Morgan Stanley transaction Steel Partners Preferreds came over as a transfer in but the transfer outs were not all accounted for correctly. This should have been a non-event but it wasn’t so there is a good chance your K-1s reflect income allocation for 2x what you held and your ending k-1 share balance may be overstated by shares transferred as well
yesterday I liquidated ESGRO at 19.91 as the esgro/vclt pair was near top of recent .. good article on S/A recommending sale titled Enstar: no cracks showing yet in Sixth Street Take out
Just for the sake of discussion (and please don’t shoot the messenger), consider the 14% YTM (annualized, 8.1% absolute) at 24.35 of senior BB SCCC maturing Sep 15. DYODD
RE– SCCC, SACH common now under a dollar. History of neg articles-got rid of mine months ago. FWIW-Saratoga has some notes that might be safer.
Do you think Sachem will be able to redeem the issue in September? I’m very leary with the common around $1.
David, Would you loan a guy money to let him pay off his debt to someone else and now he owes you? Where are they getting the money to redeem these? Same situation RILY is in. They had to sell assets. What assets does Sachem have.? That is the questions I would be asking.
Charles,
I actually did that for a friend I trusted and had loaned 400k to him unsecured about 8 years ago for 1 year for trading capital. He paid it off.
Now he’s borrowed “only” $75k a year ago but I knew at the time he needed it to keep trading. My how financial lives change and not always for the better!
That loan is being paid at $2k per month but was supposed to be paid off on an accelerated basis over the next 11 months. When that period started I had to ask why I didn’t receive the higher payment, and after being told the $2k was all he could afford, I have wiped out the interest since inception….so if he pays on time for 25 months I’ll be paid in full sans interest.
This is someone I had extreme confidence in for 3 decades . Now I don’t know what to think.
Sorry for the diversion.
Sachem still pays a dividend on its common shares, albeit a smaller one. Suspending the common divvy would be a sign of distress more so than a lower share price (imo), although suspending the dividend would increase the likelihood that SCCC gets redeemed in September.
Of course they have the optics play- reverse split of 5 to 20- might fool some new buyers that miss it.
from the annual report.
Bond coming due 56 million.
Cash available-18 million
so they have to get the money from SOMEWHERE
With the credit markets in complete turmoil, who knows if anyone will actually buy any debt they try to issue between now and September
mgr down 3 percent is now yielding 7.2 percent
might have to take the plunge though the market it selling off again
good comment..mgr/vclt pair near 1 sigma cheap (3yr horizon) was near 3 year low on 4/4
MJ, is the trend your friend? from all the comments on Tim’s site I gather a lot of people who held stocks or bought Friday thru Tues. expected the market to recover and sold on the news Trump was holding tariffs at 10% for 90 days. But as Tim posted nothing has changed. I agree with him its going to be a bumpy ride up and down the next couple months. Great for traders.
Looking at the chart for MRG you see a steady 6 month decline with bumps up and down, but overall down. I don’t expect this to change.
Maybe good for a nibble now, but I am just speculating we will see a chance at that early April low again and maybe even lower.
good comment.. VCLT closed at new yearly low… plenty air down to 3yr low near 67.5
KTBA off ~ 10%
Not sure why- 400 shares- guess somebdy had a better use for the $
5400 total traded
Gary, I’m not sure if you see the spread , but it’s 20 bid, 24 ask. Nothing to see here. I’m 20 bid and everytime a trade goes off there is a hidden order at 20.01. “hidden” is an order attribute Fidelity and Schwab don’t have available.
Couple of questions.
1) What happens to a public company’s preferred stock when it’s purchased by a private company. Can the private company stop paying the preferred dividend? (Example Aspen Insurance by Apollo, Athene by Apollo, Oaktree by Brookfield). Or is the acquiring company obligated to pay the preferred dividend before it can pay a common stock dividend?
2) CFB.PRB is missing? from the spreadsheet.
It’s a gray area some of the clauses are poorly written and open to interpretation., and it depedns on whether some sleazy lawyer thinks the case is worth prosecuting. Most acquisitions by reputable companies have honored the preferreds but there have been several cases of sleazy companies suspending the preferreds just because they didn’t want them and found a loophole to screw you over. Brookfielkd is an example of a successful company who has done so.
I’m leery of any preferred in negotiation for sale or acquistion. May be ok but once bitten twice shy.
let me clarify some of what Martin said.
The preferred stock prospectus governs. If it has clauses in there that protect the preferred stock holders, there is very little chance that the acquirer will suspend the dividends.
If it doesn’t, some acquirers will try and suspend the dividend and/or file bankruptcy on the now subsidiary company.
But it isn’t a decision by a “sleazy” lawyer. it is what is in the prospectus and what the CEO wants to do after the lawyer tells them what will happen if they suspend.
And with preferreds, some of the investors who hold them are big enough where filing suit against the company is warranted, in order to stop them from looting the company.
Long story short, I’ll be Brookfield’s lawyers look at the prospectus documents as part of their acquisition strategy and don’t even attempt to buy companies that have strong protections for their preferred stockholders, because they know they will lose if they try and kill off the subsidiary, and could have real problems in front of a bankruptcy judge who finds a fiduciary breach. (which means those preferred stockholders get paid in full, and the parent is on the hook for it, and can’t escape the liability with a corporate structure)
Good explanation about the law. My comment was more about what preferred stockholders need to be vigilant about. Defaults happen too frequently in these circumstances so I now avid them. I’m not a law student and I trade too many things to do a deep dive on all of them. Avoiding an occasional major loss keeps this a very profitable sector for me overall.
In the Brookfield cae the preferreds were a separate legal entity but the money was comingled with the common, that’s the main reason the funds disappeared, Raided mostly by the previous owner ALIN who was losing money before the sale.. I stand by my opinion that declaring it a separate entity is often a legal loophole to avoid the usual restrictions on defaults. Banks do it all the time but for different reasons and i’m not aware of any partial bank defaults like that.
Martin, brings to mind even the best companies like 3M will create a separate company to dump the doo doo in to avoid a possible loss.
That happens too but it’s different. Preferred stock might not be doodoo when first sold. In those cases it becomes the designated doooo when the common starts failing. Then raiding it makes the remaining pieces sellable and it’s all legal because it was declared a separate entity even though the funds are comingled.
Bought ANG-B (6.625% non-cum, perp preferred) at 24.85, YTC 10% for Sep 1 reset to 5yy+6.297%.
ANG- a Brookfield issue- sold it back then.
As of April 1 perp MBNKP is floating at 3mL+6.46% or about 11% for the June ex-date. Trading below par. Not a reco.
Huge spread on bid/ask; 24.80/26.13. Even at par there’s no sellers.
Hump Day Data ~
* WTI ~ $57.3
* VIX ~ 51
* 5YR T ~ 4.05%
* 10YR T ~ 4.45%
* 20YR T ~ 4.93%
* 30YR T ~ 4.89%
* 2/10 Spread ~ 67
* USD ~ 102.33
* CME ~ 60% chance no rate cut
* 30yr Fixed Mortgage ~ back to 7%
* China ~ readies 84% retaliatory tariffs on US
* EU ~ readies 25% retaliatory tariffs on US
0015 eastern:
10 yr getting rattled, now 4.51%
30 yr just touched 5.0%
75 basis point spread between 2 and 10
pig
Beautiful summary of the reasons behind the 1:30 tariff postponement announcement:
Apr 09, 2025 01:02 PM
• Liquidity conditions are deteriorating, with S&P 500 futures showing wide bid/ask spreads and reduced contract sizes, leading to increased market volatility.
• The Secured Overnight Financing Rate, or SOFR, has risen to 4.4%, trading 15 bps above the Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement rate, indicating tighter collateral conditions.
• Treasury rates have surged, and the dollar is plunging, suggesting capital flight and potential liquidity constraints, possibly due to foreign investors exiting US markets.
• Rising rates, a falling dollar, and tighter liquidity are critical warning signs for the stock market, signaling potential risks ahead.
Explains a lot about the announcement. Thanks for posting Westie-18.
Your previous posts have brought clarity many times before. Please keep up the good work.
Thanks, Dave
On a roll…..
Watch out today, Thursday
Just as Wed was a short covering, VIX panic day
Thurs will be a reality day.
China still in full economic war.
Nothing really changed except a temporary timeout because of a short crunch. Treasuries staying close to previous highs.
I’m expecting a substantial correction to yesterday’s euphoria.
Bought some more SH late yesterday.
“If market moves bother you, you don’t have the right allocation.”
Honesty scorecard…. 4pm April 9
70% Bonds -.02%
7% Prefs +1.6%
7% Sock Drawer Commons +4.9%
6% Hedge -3.7%
Net Portfolio chg +.66%
YTD Unrealized Gain/Loss -.5%
yes! I bought some QQQ puts at the close yesterday as a hedge just because conventional wisdom says that the 12% rise there could retrace by about half today…we’ll see. Still a lot of cash to deploy here if it does.
fwiw,,,liquidated NEWTG at 24.50 (24.38 stripped) as the NEWTG/SJNK pair has gone from 2 sigma cheap on 3/11 to about 3 sigma rich (1year horizon) and near yearly high
mjt-
Wasn’t it about a dollar richer at the end of Feb? Not sure why it was ‘cheap’ 3/11.
Guess I don’t get the system.
Hard not to like NEWTG paying 8.69% at today’s price and buyers historically have payed over $25 so there is some room for capital gain.
Is everyone seeing what I am seeing????
9:04pm 20Treas 4.9% Up 50bps since Friday
Has to be a liquidity squeeze coming from foreign investor actions.
Probably China’s response to DJT’s 104% tariffs
Hang on for upcoming Treasury auctions
I don’t think treasuries are quite the safe haven they were. Can you guarantee they will get paid?
The Mar-A-Lago Accord, written by the current head of the Council of Economic Advisers, includes a proposal is to fix the US debt problem by forcing a replacement of Treasuries with 100 year long-term interest-only debt, i.e., “we’re not paying your principal back.”
When Lumen did a restructuring with extension, it earned a Selective Default rating from S&P. (“We view this (as)… tantamount to a default given that lenders did not receive adequate compensation to offset the maturity extensions. Therefore, we lowered our issuer credit rating on Lumen to ‘SD’ (selective default) from ‘CC’. “)
If I were a foreign government or central bank, I would prefer to hold gold over promises. JMO. DYODD.
Too bad that document is just a theoretical mish-mash.
Westie, The government might have the power to tax but it’s going to be hard to collect from me if I’m broke. Little hint on how much I trust them, I don’t hold any treasuries except an ultra short Treasury money market fund. If they did a 3yr at 5% I might nibble.
Charles
Don’t follow your logic on Treasuries.
Long or short – at maturity they can just print up a bunch of paper to repay you.
No problem. Safe as a church.
Wow- TLT 20yr is off 6.65% in 3 days, WTC oil off 6.6% today @ 56.21
NEWTH looks even better? Higher coupon, closer to x-date.
And NEWTZ looks like a short term ~8% YTM (as best I can figure w Fido calculator and trying to figure out accrued interest…need2WR to help here).
I just bot CNOBP 5.25 FTF 9/01/2026 5yr +4.04.. at 21.55(21.44 stripped) for about a 16% ytc assuming 24.80 terminal value.
also bot
WAL-A at 21.08 ftf 9/30/2026 5yr +3.45 using terminal price of 24.6 ytc 15.32
thank you to the contributor who showed us these ftf
1 pm
20T interest up 20 bps
Value of bond down 2.6%
Both totally unprecedented in one day.
I’ll bet China is responding to Trumps threat by dumping bonds in direct retaliation.
A strong possibility of a “doom loop” where other holders dump their holdings before the price drops further.
Economic war
1:30
22 bps
3.0%
So Westie too much available in the market because you think holders are dumping and not enough buyers so the price keeps going lower and the yield on cost is going up?
My guess is a short term selling overload
Would not expect stock volatility to cause selling of 20 year bonds.
Could only guess foreign dumping, either deliberate message or rotation away frm US long term debt
— John Authers of Bloomberg Opinion speculates that somebody, somewhere may be in trouble, although he says he hasn’t heard any rumors. (As he colorfully puts it: “That dog hasn’t barked yet.” ) He points out that during previous market crashes, over-leveraged hedge funds that got into trouble had to sell good quality liquid assets to meet margin calls.
— There are stories about about PE types holding illiquid assets that have become unsalable. And stories about big banks being hung with commitments to finance big deals but no way to lay off the debt on now-nervous investors. JMO. DYODD.
Banks Postpone Loans as Tariffs Stoke Fears of ‘Hung’ Debt
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-postpone-loans-tariffs-stoke-161704446.html
Yup Bear, I said pretty much the same thing. We will see how construction goes moving forward. Don’t forget, to look what is happening at companies in the business. WY for example. I remember right after the GFC when it suspended it’s dividend and not long after converted to a Reit.
I’m smiling as I think about the PE fund buying BECN. The shareholders of BECN will be voting for their $124.00 a share offer. If they don’t, then look out below.
Bear-
The same old story every market upheaval. Buffett watching to see who’s naked when the tide goes out.
rocks, I wonder how it’s going for banks trying to unload their loans they did to Musk for when he bought Twitter.
The Twitter/X debt was sold in tranches prior to the March 28 Xai acquisition, at near or par value. Most of it was sold in February 2025 with strong demand from private equity. Banks may still be holding ~$1.3B of the original debt, but not for the lack of willing buyers.
Westie-
What is 20T? Bond market wild today.
20 year Treasury
Correct. China also has a HUGE sovereign wealth fund, and I am sure they are dumping it in retaliation.
Deleted. Sorry wrong thread.
2 Kids Fighting Again This Morning…
* Trump, 34% tariffs to you Xi…
* Xi, 34% tariffs back at you Trump…
* Trump, I’m going to add 50% additional tariffs to you soon if you don’t remove your 34% tariff on us this week Xi…
* Xi, I’ll put 50% additional tariffs back on you if you do that Trump…
🙂
Newbie, Maybe we should move this over to the litter box.
How about this.
Trump, Xi you’re going to sell Tik Tok, preferably to a company one of my friends owns.
Xi- it’s not for sale
Trump- I will extend the time so you can think about it.
Xi- How about we start with Tesla and no more foreign owned car companies in China, Tesla has to sell its factories to a Chinese company, preferably one my friends own.
Charles ~ Enjoyed a good laugh…Until I realized that is a possibility 🙂
A pissing contest, but dribbling on their shoes.
VIX hit 60. I bought SVOL. Wheeee!
Bought a little SPNT-B at 24.80. CY 8.06%, YTC 9.9%. Likely to be called Feb 2026 at first reset to 5yy+7.298%.
I couldn’t sleep at 12:30am last night so I looked at stock index futures charts. My conclusion: one more big move lower to a certain level and a countertrend rally will start. That’s what happened. In this scenario there will be another decline to the final low. Not a prediction.
The surprise is t-bond futures reversing sharply lower (yields rising). Stocks and bonds have been trading opposite, so maybe not a surprise.
Exact same thesis I am working towards!
I just noticed that my targets for the index futures countertrends were hit. On the same day as the low. This is crazy! For ES that was a 9.4% rally, for NQ 11.6%.
I would like to remind everyone that there are two factors that impact the market value of our preferreds:
Interest Rates and Risk Spread
Take a look at the attached Fed chart and ask yourself where you think the Risk Spread will end up.
July 2022? April 2020?
How risky do you feel today’s environment is vs those dates?
It has risen 100 bps in the last week.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
Shifting default risk is perhaps the biggest factor for the higher yielders. And the hardest to estimate.
Westie July of 2022 didn’t bother me. COVID was unique and a bit of a shock. Similar to what is happening now.
Most of my preferred stocks are investment grade but still have a few junks like the Citi 7.2 that I posted just now.
The investment grade spread is much less than junk bond, 1.14 vs 4.01
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
As I write this, futures are in free-fall. If they open this far down (4-6%) or more in the morning, I’ll be buying. Regardless of what actually happens with tariffs, we are now getting into silly time in the markets. JMHO.
Post-Tariff Market Drop Yielders…
PFFA ~ 10.06%
DOW ~ 9.93%
PAA ~ 8.77%
PFFR ~ 8.17%
PFXF ~ 8.08%
AMLP ~ 8.08%
ET ~ 8.04%
MPLX ~ 7.78%
BTI ~ 7.5%
RIO ~ 7.35%
MO ~ 7.28%
OHI ~ 7.18%
EPD ~ 6.94%
CBLDX ~ 6.87%
PSK ~ 6.82%
PFF ~ 6.81%
PFFD ~ 6.77%
BP ~ 6.61%
PGF ~ 6.43%
VZ ~ 6.3%
PGX ~ 6.19%
ENB ~ 6.17%
JAAA ~ 6.16%
SCFOX ~ 6.14%
WPC ~ 6.02%
dyodd