Both the S&P500 and the DJIA are up on the day – of course they are as Goldilocks is in the room I guess and investors only know one way – and that is up, up and away. Maybe the continued upward movement is a reaction to the potential settlement between UPS and their workers–which obviously would be a relief to all those addicts of Amazon.
The FOMC meeting is now underway and I can hear Bullard already arguing for a 50 basis point rate hike–‘let’s just hit with two 1/4 point moves at once’ he is arguing.
I see Mike Wilson – the celebrated Morgan Stanley equity analyst has admitted that he was wrong on calling for stocks to go down in 2023 – missed that just a little. Just because he was correct last year in calling for a down market has nothing at all to do with being right for this year – a blind squirrel still finds an occasional nut and certainly these ‘talking heads’ are no better than a bunch of blind squirrels. At the same time we are seeing more warnings about the overvalued markets from JP Morgan – we have so much business news on the boob tube I guess we have to have these clowns blabber to stop from having ‘dead air’.
I am doing nothing at all in the markets. I did see that JP Morgan is offering a 5.50% 1 year CD – callable in 6 months of course – whoops just looked and it is now 5.45%. In theory we should see a CD rate of 5.75% – 5.80% from someone come Thursday. Data suggests that the CD rate increase should be slightly above the Fed Funds rate increase. If we get to that rate I most certainly will by some – how much I don’t know.
Economic news from yesterday and today doesn’t suggest any real distress in the economy–some a little softer than forecast with some hotter than forecast – same story all year long.