Time flys when you are 70 (actually 7 weeks until 70)–seems like we just had the last FOMC meeting–and now we are nearly to the next meeting. The meeting occurs on September 19-20 and as of this moment the CME Fedwatch Tool shows that there is a 93% chance of NO rate hike. There is plenty of data to come in over the next 2 weeks, but it is likely they will not hike knowing what we know today–recent data has not been soft, but on the other hand it has not been strong–almost Goldilocks. Well we will see what consumer prices (CPI) do next week–a very hot number would put a hike back on the table.
Today we have the weekly 1st time unemployment claims number–always closely watched–230,000 new claims are expected. We also have bunches of Fed yakkers and most recently they are all talking with a dovish tone–or at least a neutral tone so I would not expect any market reactions (famous last words).
Equity markets are a little soft this morning with Apple leading the way lower as rumors of China banning iPhones in various parts of China. As usual a few stocks are driving the markets up and down. The 10 year treasury is at 4.27% and just waiting to see if it breaks out above 4.36% or if it drops backs down as it has done every time it approaches 4.3%.
Well let’s get the show on the road–not likely to buy anything today, although I am pondering my bank holdings to see if I should exit.
I think they have to raise. And have though so consistently…though not long ago expectations were over 90% (expecting they’d hold even)