75 basis point rate hike is still on tap for 11/2/2022. PPI gives no relief.
The PPI (producer price index) was just released–generally speaking the various actuals matched forecasts, although the PPI final demand was double forecast (.4% versus .2% forecast).
Equities have fallen off their early gains to now be flat, while the 10 year treasury barely budged and standing at 3.96%, waiting for the all important CPI (consumer price index) tomorrow.
At 1 pm (central) we have the release of the FOMC minutes for last months meeting and while this is very old news markets probably will react. Additionally we will have 3 Fed folks speaking today–it is expected they will all have a hawkish tone.
I plan no activity today–just waiting and watching.
I hate to sound like a broken record but with 4.5% noncallable CDs both 3 and 5 year., 4.125% 5 year US Treasury coupons at par, the best quality IG Corporate Bonds yielding 4.5% -5% and below par and finally callable GSEs with 5.9% + coupons what’s to complain about? In addition, some pretty nice increases in our Social security checks.
Where would we be with out inflation? Still in a a zero percent interest rate environment with negative rates continuing to prevail in Europe.
I have no complaints, I’d be happy to see this go on for another two years. Inflation has almost no impact on my cost of living and for those for whom it is a struggle, they should step up to the challenge instead of counting on mass media to do their whining for them
Interview of Harley Bassman and Joseph Wang discussing the danger in investing in MREITS at this time:
Start at 43 min:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bond-market-is-already-broken-stocks-and-housing/id1592743188?i=1000582155526
Bassman’s latest commentary
https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Convexity-Maven-Crash-Test-Dummies.pdf