Just noticing the futures market has common stocks down about a percent. The day will come, soon, when this market is going to ‘break’ and we are going to see a ‘real’ tumble—not these little 1% moves. There simply are too many items weighing on this economy–in particular energy prices as they feed into the cost of pretty much everything.
The price of natural gas and liquified natural gas are simply going to crush consumers this winter–in particular in Europe. It has been a long time since the energy producers have gotten control of their production such that it is short supply. I believe I just heard that the shale producers have spent 50% less on new production this year compared to last year–finally a wise business move (although as a consumer we all want more supply).
Interest rates this morning are in the 1.54% area. With the ADP employment report due out in an hour and then Friday the ‘official’ jobs report released Friday we could see interest rates move a little in reaction to the reports–but it is likely to be small moves – a couple basis points one way or the other. The real potential fireworks are saved for next week when we will see the Consumer Price Index and Producer Prices released–these are what will matter as we move toward a Fed tapering.
Buckle your seat belts and hold on for the next couple weeks–rough road ahead.
I’m with Charles M….the parallels with the fall of the Roman Empire multiply by the day. An over extended empire, unaffordable military, climate change (yes even then) , epidemic after epidemic, debased currency, barbarians at the gate, a fascination with deviant behavior and all the politics I will refrain from mentioning.
Um, barbarians? Haven’t seen many of those around lately.
Barron’s too has an article (tho short on real specifics of the trade!) on the Trillion dollar coin. Needs a booster article ~
Interesting? Old Chinese proverb from, I think, Confucius, “Woe to those who live in interesting times.”
Actually, I’m looking forward to possibly a March ’20 pullback type scenario, which could produce some very nice bargains. Picked up a CEF and a couple of preferreds back then.
Ron—I can’t imagine anyone looking forward to a 3/20 pullback. You’re assuming it will lead to a very quick recovery like what happened then. I’ve been around long enough to know that a quick recovery doesn’t always happen. Be careful what you wish for. The light at the end of a tunnel might be an oncoming train.
ive been raising cash
currently sitting at about 15% hope to be at 20% soon
Sure is a lot of huge moves up and down to go absolutely nowhere lol….
the trillion dollar coin?https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/10/05/trillion-dollar-coin-faq/ just mint 30 of these the national debt? if I recall “30 pieces of silver ” got things started down the wrong road 3000 years ago
how debasement of money led to the fall off the Roman empire
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-currency-debasement-contributed-to-fall-of-rome-2016-2
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
$1,000,000,000 Coin: The write up with this title by Lyn Alden on SA was a great read for me last night. Must read.
The woman is an honest and factual truth teller, besides talented with mind and pen. Blows Politics out of the water!
Joel, Glad you mentioned it. I went over and read it last night myself. Is one of her best articles. She explained it so clearly and concisely that I almost had nightmares after going to sleep.
See how the rest of this week and next goes.
Unfortunately, In my string up top I MISSED by 1000x! That was only a billion dollar coin.
Trillion: 1,000,000,000,000 !
Grid, READ it, it’s the content in total that counts!
Joel, I agree she is very intelligent. Most stuff I am fairly familiar with as I like that kind of stuff. The theoretical and such is good reading. But bottom line its immaterial for me as an investor in next week, month, few years and such. Any country that can issue its debt in its own currency and print it to pay it off is not in near term trouble.
And Japan makes our debt to GDP look like a balanced budget.
Unfortunately we can abuse the country’s reserve currency status for quite a bit longer before hens come home to roost.
The Trillion dollar coin blather has been around awhile. I remember that being trotted out last crisis a decade ago.
I thought the historical part of the article was good, but when I got to the conclusions, it was just the usual Bitcoin sales pitch.
Here’s the link if anyone is interested: https://www.lynalden.com/sovereign-default/