Actually there is little to no chance that we will replay yesterday, but we do have the producer price index (PPI) being released in 2 hours. After yesterdays near 2% gain in the S&P500 today is looking tamer – the futures are up about 1/3-1/2%.
The producer price index will be released at 7:30 a.m. Last month the core (which is PPI less food and energy) PPI was up 2.8% year over year–with the PPI up 2.2% year over year. So markets will partially drive off of this number–but maybe just as important will be the retail sales number which is forecast at a -.2%. A strong retail sales number will indicate the consumer is strong–and generally folks want to see this number below zero–don’t give the Fed reasons to ponder interest rate increases.
Interest rates fell sharply yesterday–around 17 basis points on the soft CPI data. This morning rates are maintaining near yesterdays closing levels around 4.46% on the 10 year. I see that almost everyone is now on the ‘Fed is finished’ bandwagon – all I can say is the Fed may be done, but I would be much less certain that the marketplace is finished. We need to ferret out buyers for trillions of dollars of new debt to be issued by the treasury–there is no way I am buying 3% 10 year debt–I need to be paid!!
Yesterday pushed my accounts near all time highs–it has been a long time coming–the all time high was in late 2021 before the Fed rate hikes started. With a little luck and some dividend and interest payments new highs should be reached before year end. I am hoping to get to the more average return of 7% or so next year. Certainly lots will change in a year so who really knows–we’ll see.
B Riley (RILY) common, preferred and baby bonds jumped yesterday. I don’t believe there is new news, but I am certain there will be within a week or two. Whether there are illegalities taking place in conjunction with Franchise Group and Brian Kahn is unknown–maybe it is just all the lousy deals Riley has participated in that makes the company a short seller target–I know I have an opinion of them and it isn’t good. My standard comment – everyone is innocent until proven otherwise.
Well now it is an hour from news–so will watch CNBC until the news hits then off goes the TV for the day.