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Inflation Looking Tame For Now

Inflation numbers as measured by the CPI came in right on forecast today –each of the numbers came in so close to forecast you might think the BLS had rigged the numbers–but for today they are THE numbers.

Markets are treating the economic numbers in a goldilocks fashion and I am benefitting from it (and am sure all of you are as well)–up for the 7th day in a row (I think as I am losing track).

The 10 year treasury yield is off 7 basis points at 3.48%—not sure what to think about this–I had a personal theory that the Fed might well sell more balance sheet to feed into the bond demand, but think this was just one more personal prediction that isn’t coming to fruition–yet.

I did nibble more on a CHS issue this morning. I have the CHSCM fixed to floating 6.75% issue as it was just below $25.

Well now that inflation is tame (for the moment) I am off to find something new to worry about–am sure there are plenty of items I can worry about.

3 thoughts on “Inflation Looking Tame For Now”

  1. Credit Sights, the independent firm that officially declared bonds dead last year… Dont Hold Your Breath…… Is going long 5’s and variables.. Very in depth, deep dive as to what and why

  2. Futures contracts for Henry Hub gas have fallen from where they were at the start of the Ukraine war. Looks like they are trending to slightly down for now for the next few months. Major source for the nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers. Be a good benefit to the farmers for supply and cost. The manufacturers cost will be down but they will not lower pricing as much so more profit. Farmers will still benefit.

  3. Expect food prices to go up a bit in the near term. Fields are flooded here in California, where produce is grown year-round, so our local farmers are telling us to expect a gap in crop rotation because they can’t get equipment into the fields to plow and plant. Harvesting of existing crops is continuing by hand, but that is obviously slower and more expensive than by machine. After this gap period, the rain will be a benefit, and it should be a good crop year.

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