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FOMC Meeting Next Week Should be a Good One

Of course we won’t know the actual happenings of the FOMC meeting next week until the future, but at a minimum we will have a Jay Powell news conference next Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. (central) to provide some entertainment of sorts. Of course todays CPI report that was ‘on forecast’ gives the FOMC cover to raise only 25 basis points or maybe none at all. We will see what the producer price index comes in at tomorrow–PPI is forecast at up .3% versus .7% last month.

Interest rates are spring back up with the 10 year now up 12 basis points to 3.64% while the 2 year treasury is up 31 basis points to 4.34%. Guess folks think the bank thing is over–but probably not. Regulators are swarming all over the banks right now most likely and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them seize a few more–you know they are out there.

In the meantime we have banking and insurance issues bouncing nicely higher–folks are likely looking for exits on some of these issues–folks that caught the falling knife yesterday may just be looking for a ‘trade’–a quick profit and there is nothing wrong with that move at all.

Looks like we have ‘cool heads’ in the room as I survey the comments–mostly in the Sandbox Page – that is great to see.

8 thoughts on “FOMC Meeting Next Week Should be a Good One”

  1. Tim,
    I did all my buys yesterday. I wasn’t going to chase anything today in case we get a dip down tomorrow after all the excitement dies down and the flippers sell into the higher market.
    My only buy today was 56 share of UEPEP
    All accounts recovered about 1/2 of what they lost in the last 2 days.

  2. “Teflon Jay” will NEVER take responsibility for any of these bank issues, liquidity complications or macro economic uncertainty. I went to one of my LCS’s (local coin shop) today and the owner told me there was a line out his doorway the last 2 days he opened up. I’ve never seen so many people in his store and he told me he’s out of silver until “about” Thursday, unless someone comes in to sell to him. Said so many people told him they were going to pull the vast majority of their bank funds out and buy precious metals with the cash 💰. I also got a email and text from APMEX (largest precious metal dealer in the US), that said they sold more metal this past weekend then they ever have in the history of the firm!
    None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free, I am Azure

    1. Yet AB the April gold and silver futures were off today. On the other hand Gold stocks were up.

    2. Azure,
      This is looking more like 1980 every day. Don’t think we will see 15% bonds like we did then due to the out of control national debt, but then again, who knows ? Got a few plastic containers with some old silver Pandas I used to buy years ago somewhere around here, probably in one of the ammo cans, too lazy too look for it today, maybe in the morning 🙂

  3. If the Fed wants to maintain their credibility they’re going to have to hold the line and keep raising rates. I’m expecting a 0.25% raise at the next meeting based on the 6% CPI number.

    1. It cuts another way too: if the banking system is healthy, it can stand higher rates. Pausing would make it look like the Fed is worried about bank’s’ strength?

  4. More than one insider at CUBI has upped their share holdings by 5-10% since this happened so they must feel pretty good about it. I guess those could be scheduled buys though which just happened to fall now.

  5. I already sold the number of shares of the CUBI preferreds I bought yesterday. Almost doubled my money (sounds better than it is – I didn’t buy very much)I didn’t actually sell the shares I bought, I sold older shares to reduce my overall basis. Still holding a small position/

    Holding the Merchants bank preferreds I bought yesterday for the moment. I caught the divi because ex-date is today (something about blind pigs comes to mind).

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