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Everyday Starts the Same

Once again the equity indexes are up pre-market as has been true for days–and each day equities sell off once the regular session opens. Certainly there are plenty of reasons to sell-not the least of which is tax loss selling and I suspect there is plenty of that going on. If tax loss selling is a major contributor to the losses we should see an end soon–maybe even get some bounces.

Interest rates (the 10 year treasury) are trading around 3.87% this morning down a basis point or two from yesterdays close.

In minutes we get the weekly initial jobless claims number and while in the past this has been a number totally overlooked by everyone that is not the case anymore–everyone is searching for weakness in economic data and I think that the jobs numbers are some of the most important out there–it is hard to imagine a very soft economy until we see some weaker job numbers. We’ll see what we get in 15 minutes.

Yesterday we got weakness in pending home sales – this is another economic sign I think is important, but thus far the fall is sales has not translated to much lower pricing. Certainly there are pockets of price weakness, but many areas are flat to off a few percentages. Inventories remain tight in many areas–some areas have nothing for sale, thus prices have remained stable. We need to see some more weakness here. The Fed is watching.

10 thoughts on “Everyday Starts the Same”

    1. In the U.S. trade date counts, not settlement, so tax loss selling ends at market close tomorrow.

    2. I know T+2 definitely matters for situations when you buy and want to tender shares for a buy back offering. Things like that. You cannot buy one day before the offer and expect to tender them.

        1. Did not know it matted for some. I was using knowledge I gained on the recent psb debacle. How does one identify the difference? I was told by my broker that psb did matter. One could not buy the day before. Thus the market was smart and not offering a gift.

  1. Oh my, soft price decrease ? What happens to real estate prices if the FED pivots come March-June?

  2. The Fed has a free hand to do whatever they want until the next Presidential elections really get going in earnest. No surprises here for anyone.

  3. I don’t expect the FED to stop until they have driven the economy into a ditch and even then not until the ditch hasn’t gotten still deeper. Cheers.

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