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Day of Reckoning is Here

Well actually ‘day of reckoning’ is probably overstating the long term importance of today. Sure it matters whether the FOMC raises the fed funds rate–but whether it is raised or paused life will go on tomorrow. With the CPI being reported yesterday at or slightly below forecast no doubt the FOMC has cover to pause rate hikes which is what I think they will do–of course they could move rates up by 1/8%–there is no rule movements have to be in increments of 1/4%.

So we will see the producer price index in a few minutes–not likely to surprise or be a factor in today’s interest rate decision. Through the rest of the week the economic news is fairly minor – to me the most important news will be 1st time unemployment claims tomorrow–employment will determine where we are going – over time – with this economy.

No action in my portfolio yesterday – my portfolio just drifted no real gains or losses – with a bunch of CDs, treasuries and money markets portfolios move very modestly.

4 thoughts on “Day of Reckoning is Here”

  1. I guess the mkt isn’t liking a hold on rates for the rest of the yr.
    Imagine if they raised!

  2. It’s not the main indicator Fed follows, but next month the CPI is really going to fall off Y2Y organically as the last big print falls off the screen.

    1. The print that falls off will be 1.2%, so that next month’s CPI will probably be 3.0 or 3.1 with 2.9 or 3.2 as outliers. If so, there will be no economic reason for the Fed to hike in July.

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