Well not much market action today being Good Friday and for the most part markets are closed.
Employment numbers were released for March and I guess I view them as somewhat Goldilocks. 236,000 new jobs were created versus a 238,000 forecast and much slower than the previous month of 326,000. At the same time the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% down 1/10%. Wages were up .3% from a month ago, while up 4.2% year over year. It seems to me whether the Fed raises at the next meeting, which is May 2nd and 3rd, will be determined, in large part based on will be determined by 3 things–of which employment is one, consumer prices (CPI) is the second and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the 3rd.
As of this minute I think it is a coin toss as to whether they raise rates—too much data yet to be seen before a decision is made. Beyond ‘data’ we still have the banking event to deal with – and how much is this going to factor into decisions–and we will never know the answer to this because the Fed will want to show economic confidence–don’t think they are going to say ‘we need to pause because of the weak banking situation’. Well that decision is near a month away yet so lots of data to come before that time so we will have to take it one day at a time.
Well I am going to spend some time this weekend working on my portfolio – lay out what I own and what I want to own. I’ll post the info here – I hope tomorrow.