In the never ending story of contrasting economic signals the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in hotter than expected.
The index came in at 44.9 versus expectations of 40 and last months reading of 37.2. Of course nothing moves in a straight line and the readings in the last year have been kind of ugly–but ‘ugly’ numbers haven’t translated much into weakening jobs numbers.
IMO, it appears that consumers have money to spend, but reports show that 50% of households are running out of stimulus savings and are dipping into long-term savings. When the $ run out and credit debt move higher, and consumers really pullback, companies will layoff, unemployment will move higher, and the recession cycle(s) will begin, and repeat until the fed is happy with inflation and pivots. Cheers!
windyducat–yes you may be right–some underlying data shows trouble ahead, but not seeing much of it yet.