I’ve noticed lately that bombastic headlines are showing up related to the stock market–again. Honestly these types of headlines have been showing up for years–here is a recent one that caught my eye–
I’m always a sucker to click and read those stories–I guess those headlines work. We all remember Joe Granville from back in the 1970’s, 1980’s and 1990’s – famous for being correct once and wrong hundreds of times–BUT his newsletter revenue was $6 million per year—and you can be 100% certain this is all about eyeballs and selling subscriptions, not about helping investors.
I urge folks to read those crazy stories–and maybe even consider the logic–then toss it in the trash and use your own common sense to make investment decisions.
Well nothing new for me today–or even all week–simply reinvesting CD proceeds into more 3 month issues at 5.35%. I actually do see some preferreds I would like to buy–BUT they are mostly issues I already own and a number of them I am overweight in shares so don’t want more now. This includes issues like the RiverNorth Opportunity Fund 6% perpetual (RIV-A) and the XAI Octogon Floating Rate 6.50% term preferred (XFLT-A). Both of these issues provide around 6.5% current yield with decent safety–I like them bunches but I would caution against going crazy on ownership of any particular issue. I keep a little money set aside if I decide to buy something, but likely that won’t happen this week.
How about this as compiled by FactSet S&P Dow Jones Indicies
The market has average 10% over past 100 years…… But it’s only averaged 10% (from +8 to +12) for 6 of those 100 years
1926, 1959, 1968, 1993, 2094, 2016
Joe Granville 1981……Dow 1,000
This is a Granville Early Warning. Sell everything. Market top has been reached. Go short on stocks having sharpest advances since April.
I can’t find it but believe his actual quote was… Even widows and orphans should short the market…… The lesson is…. Trying to make bank off of predictions is sketchy at best
In the not-so-ridiculous category: “Bond King Bill Gross to Bond Funds: Drop Dead”
That’s from Barron’s and is behind a paywall, but here is the source:
https://williamhgross.com/they-just-wanna-sell-you-a-bond-fund/
Don’t forget Wolf Richter at Wolfstreet.com. Some of his recent click-bait and eyeball-searching headlines:
“Buffet Invests in T-Bills Instead of Stocks…”
“The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America…”
“The Reasons The Fed’s Bowman is Willing to Hike Rates….”
Always good for a laugh. But sadly there are citizens who actually donate real money to this clown.
Someone blinked in the rate wars
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4690630-wall-street-breakfast-divergence?mailingid=35304434&messageid=wall_street_breakfast&serial=35304434.1636731&utm_source=seeking_alpha
Then there is always Hussman
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240506/