1/10/2025
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Well all the whining about the economy is slowing rapidly and the Fed needs to back off is all meaningless with the release of hot CPI numbers just now.
The rally in markets instantly turned down–so about a 700 Dow point swing (from 300 up to 400 down). Interest rates (10 year treasury) has turned higher and now is at 3.99% and the 2 year is up 15 basis points at 4.44%.
So now we know for 99% certainty–75 basis points on 11/2.
2 hours before the release of the CPI for September markets are firm with the S&P futures up by about 1/2%. The 10 year treasury yield has dropped a bit to 3.88% which is down 2 basis points from yesterdays close. Of course these numbers mean nothing–CPI is everything.
Probably the best part of the CPI is that NO ONE expects a soft number–everyone is expecting a 8.x% number so any hint of a softening will send equities straight up and yields down. Honestly we are due for a bounce, but I won’t be holding my breath.
I will be missing the fun today as I have to be out of the office all day today and tomorrow during market hours. I will not be buying or selling anything today or tomorrow.
Below are press releases from company’s that have preferred stock or baby bonds outstanding.
FTAI Infrastructure Inc. Announces Timing of Third Quarter Earnings and Conference Call
Green Brick Partners, Inc. Announces Dates For 8-K Filing and Earnings Call
SuRo Capital Corp. Third Quarter 2022 Preliminary Investment Portfolio Update
Brookfield Asset Management to Host Third Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call
UMH PROPERTIES, INC. WILL HOST THIRD QUARTER 2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS WEBCAST AND CONFERENCE CALL
Sotherly Hotels Inc. Schedules Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Two Harbors Investment Corp. Announces Third Quarter 2022 Preliminary Financial Results
NuStar Energy L.P. to Announce Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Results on November 3, 2022
I have done nothing at all today–have not even opened my accounts (I have them all of a google sheet so don’t have to open them)—but I know they are red again–nearing a low for the year.
Equities and treasury yields are barely moving in either direction–getting ready for the big day tomorrow. Any sign of slowing inflation tomorrow can send markets sharply higher–wish I could say I was expecting softness in the CPI, but realistically I don’t see it.
Just now stocks are moving as the FOMC minutes have been released. Since I seldom have CNBC on during the day I won’t hear all the blabbering about what is in it–they will talk a lot and say nothing.
75 basis point rate hike is still on tap for 11/2/2022. PPI gives no relief.
The PPI (producer price index) was just released–generally speaking the various actuals matched forecasts, although the PPI final demand was double forecast (.4% versus .2% forecast).
Equities have fallen off their early gains to now be flat, while the 10 year treasury barely budged and standing at 3.96%, waiting for the all important CPI (consumer price index) tomorrow.
At 1 pm (central) we have the release of the FOMC minutes for last months meeting and while this is very old news markets probably will react. Additionally we will have 3 Fed folks speaking today–it is expected they will all have a hawkish tone.
I plan no activity today–just waiting and watching.