Today I listened to Jay Powell’s entire speech and found it very balanced–personally I didn’t hear too much new news, but I did hear him practically promise (not quite a promise) to slow the interest rate hikes in December.
Of course what I hear and what the computers hear aren’t too similar so up we go in equities and down we go in interest rates.
Oh well it is what it is – I care about next year, not the next hour or day. Besides we have inflation numbers coming out tomorrow morning and then the ‘official’ employment numbers on Friday. The employment numbers from ADP showed a softening of employment, but these numbers seldom, if ever, move markets. Directionally I hope that ADP is right – ADP showed 127,000 new jobs and the forecast for the ‘official’ jobs report on Friday is 200,000–certainly something a bit under forecast would be helpful.
My accounts were higher by a small amount prior to the rally–now are up 1/2%–can’t whine about that I guess.
The question everyone asks ‘have we seen rates peak’ can’t, of course, be answered, but if you are fairly fully invested it doesn’t matter too much – rates somewhat higher or somewhat lower doesn’t change anything I am doing–which isn’t much.