Today I listened to Jay Powell’s entire speech and found it very balanced–personally I didn’t hear too much new news, but I did hear him practically promise (not quite a promise) to slow the interest rate hikes in December.
Of course what I hear and what the computers hear aren’t too similar so up we go in equities and down we go in interest rates.
Oh well it is what it is – I care about next year, not the next hour or day. Besides we have inflation numbers coming out tomorrow morning and then the ‘official’ employment numbers on Friday. The employment numbers from ADP showed a softening of employment, but these numbers seldom, if ever, move markets. Directionally I hope that ADP is right – ADP showed 127,000 new jobs and the forecast for the ‘official’ jobs report on Friday is 200,000–certainly something a bit under forecast would be helpful.
My accounts were higher by a small amount prior to the rally–now are up 1/2%–can’t whine about that I guess.
The question everyone asks ‘have we seen rates peak’ can’t, of course, be answered, but if you are fairly fully invested it doesn’t matter too much – rates somewhat higher or somewhat lower doesn’t change anything I am doing–which isn’t much.
PSA preferreds and NEE-N
Comfortable with these.
I feel very unsettled about the enormous volatility in the equity and fixed income markets. Powell said nothing today that was any different than what he has said in the recent past. Yet the markets exploded higher as they were apparently looking for any reason to do so.
I sold 3000 shares of a preferred issue that was rated BBB- (BHFAO). It went higher after I sold. I made some money, but I just wasn’t comfortable with it being perpetual, even though the coupon was 6.75%.
My logical side said I should have been okay with this investment, but I just wasn’t. I’m about 25% liquid and can get 3.5% in Schwab’s Treasury MM fund. I think I will be able to buy BBB or BBB+ issues at the same rate eventually. Who knows? One puts his money up and takes his chances.
maybe not peak rates but hope we are close, not fully invested but 25%cash with money markets here for now, not all bad. ran my portfolio at close down 3.2% ytd. ,after big day, and bonds & muni mutual funds should go up over-nite.
I’m always 50% cash and this year it’s been good.
MM @3.33%.
CDs over 4.5%- 4.75%