You would think the damage was done to preferreds and baby bonds yesterday–but the real damage is today with the average share price off 1/2%. Yesterday was flattish. The 10 year treasury yield has really popped today and is not backing of from the 3.65-3.69% area where it has been all day—slowww down!
This is why I just nibbled a bit today–likely more pain to come, although no one can predict the movement of interest rates on a day to day or week to week basis, but we need more data to see what the future might hold.
Mortgage rates have hit around 6.5% today–the highest level in 14 years. There is zilch happening in the refinancing marketplace–it has been partially replaced with home equity loans. Sales are slowing substantially and I expect in the midwest when winter hits this will grind to a halt.
The next CPI report will be released on October 13th at 7:30 am (central time) – 3 weeks from today.
The next employment report is October 7th–two weeks from tomorrow.
The next FOMC meeting is on November 1st/2nd–so 5 weeks from now.
Of course we will have lots of other data points as well, but these are some real key pieces of info we need to have weaken somewhat–if not we will see another 75 basis point hike in November—with some weakening I think it would be a 50 basis point hike.