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40 Minutes to Announcement From the Fed – an Hour to the ‘Real Meat’

So it is 40 minutes until the FOMC interest rate announcement–it would be a real shocker if it was anything except ‘no rate hike’. Highly likely the wording of the announcement will be something like ‘while it appears some economic data is softening, employment remains strong and inflation continues to run above our 2% target rate so we stand ready to further hike rates if necessary’.

Then at 1:30 p.m. Powell will take the stand and all questioners at the presser will try to get him to commit to some sort of timeframe for rate cuts–only someone very foolish would make that kind of a commitment.

The 10 year treasury is off 4 basis points at 4.16%–while equities are about as flat on the day as is possible. Certainly both of these will have knee jerk reactions when the announcement is made–courtesy of the algos taking control of markets. In a couple hours we will know how ‘real investors’ react.

So I am watching my charts closely (not for any reason except to see the likely overreaction to the announcement). Buckle up!! Back to some level of normalcy tomorrow.

11 thoughts on “40 Minutes to Announcement From the Fed – an Hour to the ‘Real Meat’”

  1. New all time equity highs for me now on traditional, Roth and taxable accounts (collectively up near 11% on the year). My trading account finally got back to even on the year as I used it to hedge against a huge downturn which I thought possible and it turned very red by late summer – I changed that horse to more neutral in September and it has worked well getting me back to even on it. Retirement in T-minus 30 days and counting…

  2. Too much power for a few. It’s really not necessary, but we think it is, so we allow and retain a vestigal and primative organ.
    “I care not for Laws, give me control of Money” The Rothschild Motto.

    1. FYI, there is no evidence that is a real quote. It’s an anti-semitic slander. Please don’t repeat it.

      1. Info taken from online sources. Wikipedia conspiracy page stuff. Their notes.

        The earliest attribution for this quote is found here. Bottom of page 764 and bottom of page 771. Actual hardcopy.



        Basically stuff brought up during a Joint Hearings in a subcommittee in the house of reps.

        So we basically have an author T. C. Daniels stating a Rothschild said that. There is no primary source for a Rothschild ever saying that circa 1790. This was then repeating in news publications and books.

        This quote was used in The Magazine of Wall Street and Business Analyst (November 10, 1934 p.67) and in Money Creators (1935) by Gertrude M. Coogan.

        It might perhaps be a play on an English proverb, Let me make the songs of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.

        Variant: I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets.
        The man who controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply.

        Attributed to Nathan Mayer Rothschild (1777-1836) mostly with the year 1815.

        In summary… it does have that ring of a made up or modified saying/quote slapped against somebody important to give it weight. All the signs of propaganda used against Jews for centuries. With now being an especially sensitive time with the war.

        David got me curious so I dug in a bit. History is full of this stuff.

  3. Well, most of my preferred and BB issues are up some today, won’t know about CD and Bond market prices until later today of course, but the biggest gain for today was one of my (3) CEF’s, that was the (mostly utility) fund UTG, up about .96 a share or 3.57%. I have read that utility companies borrow a lot of money, so the prospect of lower interest rates should help the share prices of utility issues. UTG is finally back to what I paid for it 1 year ago, but I’ve been collecting 8.5% dividend, which is the most important thing to me. I don’t really like CEF’s or ETF’s for that matter, too many moving parts for me, but I did as much research as I could understand and bought UTG, GGN and FRA. All have been up and down, but all are in the green (at the moment) anyway. I also hold CMSC, was expecting a bit more of a move, but not complaining.

  4. What a day to be OOF

    BTW I was reading a report from ‘experts’ saying its time to basically bail on next to all pfds…take the losses….and move into short term low priced fixed to float. In other words throw in the towel. Meaning no chance for price appreciation….AND….not chance for any fixed to floats to reward. The only sure thing seemed to be…that there was going to be a crisis in faith and credits are facing a devastating move in quality.

    I felt like I needed to be in the salt mines below Detroit when reading

    1. I see SPX closed at 4707 a key resistance point for chart readers. I thought it must have smashed that when I heard the closing reports!!

  5. Well…the hardworking members of the Fed have finally and correctly concluded they can lay down their shovels and picks and come in from the broiling sun and treat themselves to a glass of lemonade. If shelter wasn’t six months behind in the figures you would already see a sprinkling of 2s for the various rates of inflation. Oh well, unlike with eternally “transitory” better somewhat late than a lot.

  6. TLT continues it’s march north.
    If you add – meaning multiply x 1.035) the 3.5% yoy inflation rate from yesterday to what it was a yr ago ( ~6.5%), we still have inflation of 6.73% —
    not exactly dropping to 2% or so Powell wants.

    But, the market is very happy, and I am getting back some of the last couple days of losses. I think I hear violins on the aft deck….

    1. Bea–yes the statement was much more dovish than I would have anticipated–we’ll see if Jay Powell throws cold water on the reaction or not.

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