Last week with the New Years holiday the S&P500 didn’t move much from the previous Friday–closing down by about 1/2%. The weekly range was only about 2%.
The 10 year treasury continued to drift lower falling 5 basis points on the week to close at 4.57%. Economic news was pretty light so no real movement based on new information. This week we have the December employment numbers and as always it will be important–the forecast is for just 155,000 new jobs being created with an unemployment rate of 4.2% so we should get a decent read on the economy.
The average $25 share preferred and baby bond got a very nice lift last week with the falling interest rates. The average share gained 39 cents with investment grade issues gaining 47 cents, banks gaining 39, CEF preferreds up just 9 with mREIT preferreds up 7 cents. Hopefully everyone got a boost in their portfolios.
The Fed balance sheet fell by a giant sized $33 billion last week. After a couple weeks with only small drop in balances it was expected that we would see a pretty large drop.
Just a reminder that markets will be closed on Thursday because of the death of President Carter.
Speaking of charts- FIDO has two diff SPY values- Active trader pro daily dashboard is $1000 lower than the actual numbers found elsewhere on the site– $5003 vs $6003- asleep at the wheel.
Seems to be correct now.
Like this site for preferreds. But feel short term equity predictions not worth much. Longer term equity indexing still fairly reliable and best path for total portfolio growth. E.g. 5, 10, 15 year total performance of VFINX (S&P 500 index fund), 14.57%, 13.07% and 13.80% respectively. Most of which not taxable as unrealized cap gains. Just my 2 cents. But again appreciate site’s listing of preferreds.
Tacitus–really not anything on this site predicting common equity movements–that is a game that I learned many years ago is not worth trying to predict. I do like to look out 3-6 months to try to see what may lie ahead—which may affect commons shares–but once again no one can truly predict these things–although if half the folks say up and half say down 50% will be correct.
Tim, as a general rule for myself I look for the market value of the common if it’s 500 m or less I get shy at 300m. I also see how far below $10.00 the common share price is then I compare that to what people at the casino are paying for the preferred or the BB. I also like seeing the common paying a dividend and one that hasn’t been cut.
No common dividend, price on common say below 7.00 or 5.00 I’ll pass on the preferred
Charles—I don’t have hard and firm numbers like you do—BUT I like to see a solid common share price and a nice dividend. This doesn’t apply to the CLO common shares as they all trade low–different rules for me on those.
Tim, not exactly hard and fast rules but out of BW, PDCC and SPMA which preferred or BB do you think I would buy? Any or all of them.
Futures up big this morning yet again. I think we’re getting very close to a meaningful correction.
yazzer
Meaningful correction …..
Intuition ?
Technical ?
Other ?
yazzer
The 10 yr bond vs 3 mo bill chart in the below SA article is as good a confirmation of your prediction as can be found
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4747696
Warming up my trigger finger getting ready to sell.