Well the day for a interest rate hike is here–seems like it was just yesterday that we had the last hike in the Fed Funds rate.
I am guessing a 75 basis point hike is in the cards–a 100 point hike is possible, but while I think the Fed wants asset prices lower I would be a bit surprised at a 100 basis point hike–but no one knows for sure.
Jay Powell’s press conference will be more telling–I think he will acknowledge economic conditions are softening a little, but will send a message that the Fed is data dependent, but at this time data is inadequate from which to ponder the next rate move.
After the shellacking that we have taken in the last month I am hoping for a bit of a relief rally (in bonds) of sorts once the interest rate decision is announced. Obviously no one knows what will happen to rates and with the added burden of quantitative tightening ramping up any forecast by anyone is a total wild ass guess.