I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
Today, 4 accounts down an average 1.1%
bought
EICC 24.12
EIIA 24.65
MSDL 19.00
RJF-PB 24.95
BUI 21.75 this was a whole 10 shares bought to track the stock, good thing I didn’t have a large order in
And of course the KRP -12.60
BCSF -15.25
Quite a lot of nervousness in the supposedly NAV stable / MMF equivalent AAA rated CLO ETFs during the last few days. Likewise in the BBB-rated CLO ETFs. JMO. DYODD.
Sounds like Mr. Powell is backing off his “inflation from tariffs could be transitory” to “it may be more persistent” as the economy “digests significantly larger than expected” tariffs. Boy, is he between a rock and a hard place. Does the Fed cut rates as Mr. Trump is demanding, hold them steady while the dust settles, or raise them to attempt to calm inflation some? I brought up the spector some time ago of possible Stagflation. Is it coming?
Recessions are deflationary. Time to talk cuts.
I’m not thinking about is this the bottom. I’m thinking about the stock market has become a serious problem for the economy.
On SA, Bill Gross advises not to buy the dip- does not see this as a short term problem. Something to ponder… maybe nibbles, but not today for sure.
Wow…. What carnage again today. It has finally began to hit me as I see about a 1% decline overall from my high this year, with half of it today alone. Guess it could be a lot worse. Normally the jobs report would be a big topic of discussion, but not today! It was actually not a bad report, but it has been buried by the reaction to the tariffs and start of the global trade war. I’m sitting tight as usual and waiting for this to pass. Not selling anything…… And might eventually buy a little.
Significant correlation development to report here. Index futures all plummeting right now. And commodities as well; natural gas/gas, silver, crude, copper all tanking anywhere from 3-6% in the red. Even gold contracts bidding down 20 points.
But do you want to know what’s up > $1,000?
BTC
I saw that.
My prediction is the market goes LIMIT DOWN 7.5 % . Then we will see if the circuit breaker does anything. I doubt it.
This is an environment where M&A arbitrage trading is usually disastrous.
Even if you have a good deal…meaning one that won’t break the merger agreement, random stock movements force out leveraged players. Almost everyone trading M&A deals for a living is highly leveraged.
lt,
I saw this and thought I’d send it to you.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4772937-municipal-bond-tax-exemption?mailingid=39296530&messageid=dividend_ideas&serial=39296530.54998&source=email_dividend_ideas
Mr. Market apparently missed permabull Ed Yardeni’s “buy the dip” memo late yesterday. This morning’s futures chart looks like the sound of the high school class comedian scratching his fingernails on a blackboard.
(From AI, in case you forgot – “The sound of fingernails scratching on a blackboard.. elicits a distinct, unpleasant emotional response…Possible Explanations: …Evolutionary Connection: Some theories suggest that the sound might be similar to warning calls of primates…” JMO. DYODD.
Extreme fear
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Friday 6:45am NY … Pre-Mkt very ugly …. Some MACRO Good should come.
Individual items for a bounce are MICRO…. but down the road.
Pre-Mkt examples ….
AAPL @ $194.50
BAC @ $35.30
F @ $9.30
JPM @ $215.00
C @ $60.00
XOM @ $108.00
WMT @ $84.75
“At the bottom of the ocean, next to every shipwreck, there is found at least one chart”–
haha. Just playin with you rocks2stocks!
LOL. My ES target was 5300. Overnight low 5210. Moving parts. My crude futures tgt was 60.5. Overnight low 60.8. What’s next? Don’t ask me.
Rocks, ready to catch a falling knife? Today could be good or bad. I think going into the weekend could give things time to settle down and Monday be a recovery.
This correction has brought down the market P/E to only a slightly insanely high level.
And with Tariff’s, the “E” part of P/E can be absolutely hammered….
With the internet bubble, the P/E started coming down because the companies without any “E” were going bankrupt left and right and being removed from the equation.
With the exception of SPAC’s, which seem to be growing like weeds, most companies have a “E” already, and are not a divide by 0 problem…
Charles,
A trading firm owner used to take people to dinner who would always question him about market direction. The CEO would slowly, almost imperceptibly push the butter knife toward the edge of the table while talking to the person.
When the knife fell and hit the person on the foot, he or she would question why the CEO had pushed the knife off the table, to which he would reply , “Because I thought it would go UP!”
This was his way of responding to people who thought buying dips was a good strategy.
Lt, thanks for the reminder of what happened to me in the 2020 to 2022 tech bubble. Couple bad buys I will probably regret and one good one on UMBFP at 24.80 today
Lt, that is what I like about you. You admit you made a mistake even though you know better and actually tell people about your losses. I know some people who only brag about their wins.
I thought it was a good time to get back into KRP at 12.60 today. what do I know
Weekend? Probably two days of whipping the crowd into a fear frenzy- so Mon could be worse & for sometime.
VIX rocketing
I know that some people here held ENLC when it was bought out by OKE and got stock in trade. OKE is not a MLP so no K-1 I think a few held on and at one point OKE went over $100.00 a share and was at some ridiculous P/E for a pipeline co. and a low dividend. Then OKE agreed to build an export pipeline with MXLP to the Golf of America. I think our export market of oil and gas is going to take a hit as there is a lot of other choices for customers to buy from. OKE is down big time the last couple of days.
SPX _ looking at $4950, then 4345
But, could do anything at this point. Guess I should be looking at 3x short ETFs on Nasdaq
Wasn’t much movement in my issues, a few pennies up or down, but I did buy some DX-C and a bit more MS-F. Was hoping for some bargains, not to be, maybe tomorrow ?
Wed pm / Thursday am Preferred’s comments re safety …. held nicely
I have a holding list of 20 (+ -) ….. From Apr 3 close as of today %-age prx chg … Ranged from ….
CHSCM ….. up .14% to $24.80
KTH …… unchgd at $29.35
CHSCN ….. unchgd at $25.01
…. NLYpG …. Down .99% at $24.90
… KMPB …. Down 1.23% at $22.43
… FpD ….. Down 1.42% at $22.19
…. BMLpH Down 3.18% at $21.32
Many, if not all, of the names have come from you III’s posters…. that worst of the lot ( BMLpH ) was my gem ! Hat’s off ….. and yes those preferreds held up fine.
Jim – Great reminder on the NLY preferred. Been waiting on that one for months to dip below par. Cheers!
You, or one of your ProPoster’s, had put that “G” relooked by me. I have had on my Preferd Watch for months & was about ready to delete ( constantly over $25 ). How long have I held … prior to yesterdays Buy … $23.70 !!!!
Despite the chaos out there, still adding …. & keep posting the thoughts.
My 2 cents after the lies regarding other nations’ tariff percentages:
1)We are in for a World of hurt.
2) LQD was DOWN today. High yield cannot weather the tariff fiasco very long.
The President didn’t want to talk to countries right away, and I’m not sure they want to talk to him as they will let our markets’ decline continue to work on the citizenry and perhaps turn them against the policies. I’m not sure anyone knows what these policies are.
3) Credit quality will weaken dramatically within weeks as earnings come down
4)I cannot say in the 51 years I’ve watched markets or the 27 years I have traded, that I’ve seen an administration more at odds with investors in an effort to supposedly help the country.
5) Get me to CD’s.
6) Someone is insane . Unfortunately, it’s not me!
circuit breaker page: may come in handy
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=CircuitBreaker
Musing on AMZN- down ~ 9% today, but how it could rocket if Friend Bezo$ gets to buy Tik Tok?
Not a buyer, but has promise. I don’t see how a group of buyers could work.
I hesitate to think what mislabelled , crazy stuff nobody has ever thought of before but which is posited as “normal” is coming in the Big Beautiful Bill.
Tariffs threaten the earnings and margins of some businesses. The usual response is layoffs. Yesterday, the brick dropped in the pond. Now the ripples spread. I’m not going to guess or predict or speculate where this is going because there are too many moving parts.
In the interview I posted yesterday, Brad Setser said tariffs will affect Q2 GDP, possibly in a big way. He was unwilling to speculate beyond that except to say a recession is possible.
Notable today: Crude futures had a nice rally going; today -7%. DXY (dollar index) big drop. Not normal. Financial markets don’t like being jerked around.
For all the hullaballoo in the market today I expected to do a bit of shopping in the fixed income realm. While I see some small sales I am not seeing K-Mart blue light special deals. I am kind of sitting here doing nothing.
I just bought some more PFLD. That’s my wild and crazy idea for the day. LOL.
Hard to believe, but market players are hiding out in STRF and STRK today.
I fat fingered a horrible sale in STRF after hours at 91.75 and was hoping to get my money back.
It was pointed out to me by someone in favor of the tariffs that cutting the trade and budget deficits is terrible for BTC.
Lt, get out of the gutter. You should be trading COST down 5.00 at open then up 7.00 a few minutes ago. Different groups trading different sectors of the market.
R2S – I’ll take a closer look at those 8s at market open. NGL looks very interesting. I currently have a decent position on the Argo 2042 notes.
Any predictions today on price action for PFFA and frankly a bunch of other individual preferreds to see if that last upper tranche of high credit quality 6%-6.45% (JPM-C, MER-K) issues fall below par.
I have that PSA-H you mentioned. Will add more for every 25-50 cent drop from here. PFF still holding the $30 handle here in pre market.
lt – are you running any convert/arb trades this week or do you only look at those end quarter windows?
Theta, those are great ideas, along with some others. But I use them as cash vehicles. I see them as pretty stable. Just look at the past years for them. I am now rotating out of them and buying 6%+ preferreds that are investment grade that have dropped $2 + and their past charts swing in the wind for cap gains. I have a laundry list like NEE-N, SREA, MGRE, SOJF, CMSC, and a few dozen others. I have 10 years to retirement and these are great for my personal investment. Depending on how the market has reacted to rates or if there is some scare, I switch back n forth between the 2 types, with many years with cap gains, and has worked well for my strategy over many years.
Mr. Conservative – Thanks for the heads up on that NEE issue. I have a good size position in MGRE now. I bought CMSC nearly a $1 higher, so I should add to that one today. I’ll check out SOJF.
To your point, I’m looking at higher coupon/quality this morning such as CHS Inc. For instance appears the 7.10% issue is now trading under par for the first time in a long time.
i meant SOJC and not SOJF. SOJC is what I am rotating into (dip) and SOJC is new and will probably have a more flattish trading range, which I will use in the future to park cash (will have to wait on that one to see what it is like in probably a year).
It has been great and profitable when fear hits the market and rotate back into these that dip maybe once a year or so. Noone likes red in their web page of investments and they just sell. Many investors say they are buy and hold. But several down weeks and they capitulate one by one and cave into selling. That is when it is the most profitable and it seems like this happens every year. We have data in seconds and investors trade off emotion and dont have a defined list of trading rules. Or … they are aware of the rules, but say, “this time is different, get out and fight another day.”
The stock market goes down on an escalator, but rides up in an elevator. Hence investors usually sell low and buy high, or at least could have made more money staying in and then spend years making up the lost $.
mgr/vclt trading near 3 low .. tried buying mgre ar 23.70 but missed it
PSA preferreds are cumulative perpetuals. PSA has a history of calling the highest coupon preferred when treasury yields have fallen to an advantageous level. PSA-H at 5.6% would be next.
These preferreds trade like bonds, making the same highs and lows as ZN 10-year treasury futures. There is also a stock-like component that can crash the price in a downturn.
PSA-H closed at 22.90, creating the potential for a 9.2% cap gain to par. The CY is 6.1%. If I knew that yields were going to fall to the Sep low (without a GDP hiccup), I’d buy PSA-H now. However, I don’t know what’s going to happen, and the price indicates that traders aren’t exactly jumping on the trade. I’m just going to watch some more.
NMAX being destroyed on day 3. Whatever it is.
NEWSMAX. Recent IPO.
The latest from Eric Basmajian.
“Residential Construction: The Backbone of the Cyclical Economy”
https://epbresearch.substack.com/p/residential-construction-the-backbone
What I wrote to a friend this morning about the reaction I expected:
“Here’s my scenario: indexes, DXY and yields down.”
That’s what happened.
Will the stock index dip be bought once again tomorrow? ZB t-bond futures tried three times and failed in the last month to push up above the 200-day moving average and stay there. This afternoon’s fourth try looks like a possible breakout. A trend up for ZB is a trend down for the 30-year yield.
Economic and China expert Brad Setser talks about the expected tariff hit to GDP in this interview from 3 days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFg8Uo2gKUc
“Treasury Secretary Bessent says market woes are more about tech stock sell-off than Trump’s tariffs”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-market-woes-are-more-about-tech-stock-sell-off-than-trumps-tariffs.html
I guess he doesn’t have his life’s savings in a 401k.
From the intraday high to current price this evening, ES (SPX futures) has fallen over 3%. I can’t fathom what long traders are thinking when they get caught up in these moves. High surf! Rip tides! Rocky bottom! This is classic rip-your-face-off big correction behavior.
Of NOTE;
S&P circuit breaker at 7% down, 13% and 20%
https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/stock-market-circuit-breakers
I see we’re off 6% as I type. Bet we don’t reach 7
Low on SP future looks to be down a little over 4%.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.html
Roll another one.
exactly