I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
RE: WCC-A
Unliks many of the holders on III, I own the preferred as a result of a wise decision my father made many years ago to buy shares of a company purchased by or merged into WCC. I hold 97 shares of preferred, having cashed out of the common in some type of split off a few years back…not even sure what did happen …but finding the basis was a heck of a problem.
Best as I can tell my basis is about 1/20th of the value of the holdings I ended with (was gonna say “ended up” with but Madam Grammarly wouldn’t like that).
In any case I failed to cash a dividend check, Computershare notified me of this, and in going to the site to add my banking info I noticed a number of stocks available for direct purchase , which included some that are purported to offer a discount option.
Is anyone familiar with any of the DRIP or DI discounts?
Any opinions on XOMA preferreds, XOMAO and XOMAP? They both are yielding 8%+ and XOMAO closed at par 8.375% yield. The chart for the company XOMA, monthly, is one long downtrend since 1987. Appears they’ve consolidated a few times. It is an intriguing business model, biotech royalties, and could legitimately take 40 years to build a book of cashflowing assets. Or could be a lifestyle company for a founder who has milked it all that time. Co. prezo clicks on some level, and they have found a way to keep the lights on all those years presumably. Haven’t looked at their financials yet. It’s surely a morass with so much sunk cost into intellectual property masquerading with dubious resale value. A business though perhaps not impacted by tariffs nor economic recessions … Seems like its all about cashflows and streams with them … what am I missing? Why did the preferreds crater at the end of 2023 just from health of parent co?
The preferreds are not for me.
Persistent negative earnings, Long-term micro-cap status indicating stalled growth, Inconsistent financial metrics (volatile revenue and net income patterns), Limited institutional analyst coverage, suggesting insufficient market validation, and business model is playing sort of a middleman and hoping or gambling for a payoff.
The dividend payments and yield in my opinion doesn’t justify the investment risk. Why invest in anything with negative earnings?
Everyone should have some spice, but this has too many jalapenos for me.
I would not sleep at night, and would be performing regular checkups for acid reflux. If the market and business environment turns, you would need to be the first out the door. Works ok if you are checking your investments every hour.
Nate, If you mean by consolidated they have done two reverse stock splits. One in 2010 and one in 2016. It doesn’t appear from the stock price that retail investors are expecting it to happen again soon. If your’re going to invest in a company holding bio tech you should look at SWKHL
Mr. Conservative, you make good arguments. I am a sucker for a story and they’ve survived 3+ decades on negative earnings. The reverse split (consolidations) do suggest equity has been the fallback funding mechanism. Charts on the preferreds don’t go back very far, but downdrafts in 2022 and 2023 are concerning.
Charles, thanks for suggesting SWKHL. Just sniffing around the choices right now.
I’m content with preferred XOMAO. Also they still pay a nice dividend on their stock XOMA. They are small but do have enough cash for now. They do lose money but a chance of positive income in 2026. Currently safe enough for me. I’ve been collecting the 8% dividend for over two years.
Nathan, XOMA up 7% today with earnings of $0.06 per share. I hold XOMAO paying 8% and am comfortable with it for now. Some analysts are predicting better earnings in 2026.
Biotech is a wild sector their research yields some successes and lots of failures. XOMA spreads it around may be diverse enough to do well. But still not my kind of gambling. I hold a small amount of their preferreds looking to swap between them on price movement but haven’t found much opportunity to do so.
I know you’ve played disparities between LANDO and LANDP in the past…. The one happening now seems to be longer lived than normal, don’t you think? pretty wide too…….. I did manage to do a day trade on P for 36 cents as an experiment, but that’s about all… LANDM has been more my speed for a hold…
A Tale of Two Channels
Here are monthly log charts from 1974-present of the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index (DJT)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/krqxOzPs/
and the Nasdaq Transportation Index (TRAN)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9PhshLEk/
Dates on the DJT lows line up with major recessions that many of you will remember. Transportation may be a better read on the economy than SPX. The two channels on each chart raise interesting questions.
I looked at these charts after reading anecdotes from trucking CEOs regarding the existential threats to their businesses from the new tariffs.
Sure looks like broke bottom of the channel and in the process of a retest before heading lower.
Going back 30 years there are many channels to choose from. That monthly MACD is a tell.
DJT
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5slYqXtD/
TRAN
https://www.tradingview.com/x/A5YSr0un/
Might be my bias showing. I started shorting some truckers and importers this past week and monitoring the port news closely. The slowdown in China-originating shipments to the West Coast has begun and will accelerate and the media is slathering over it. I do not think any of this is good for the U.S. or global economy in the short-term (1-12 months). About Friday, government statistics suffer from constant backward revisions and did not match ADP or survey. Don v Jay back on the front burner this week. Still volatile out there and President chiding Chair of the FOMC could be incendiary.
Nathan-
The fast line on DJT monthly MACD is threatening to go negative, a condition that accompanied the last two recessions.
rock2,
I can’t handle interpreting all these lines. I’m forwarding to Madam Gray for a tarot reading. Amazingly, she has a set of cards with market reference indicators and can therefore predict with relative certainty what the charts are telling us, but only if you take all of your money and bury it in a sack in the back yard with a dead black cat.
Please comply and advise you have made the burial so I can pay for the reading.
Your friend,
losingtrader
LOL, LT. I have a friend who buried his crypto hard wallet in his backyard. Does that count?
I don’t have a forward-looking interpretation of the transportation index charts other than something to watch.
Given that AGNCP is now past its float date (15 apr 2025), and given that the next declared coupon should be north of 9% (4.697% spread + 3MSOFR + 0.26161% tenor adjustment), anyone care to speculate on the chances they’ll call it?
AGNC has several issues now past call and floating in addition to AGNCP.
AGNCN is 5.111% + 3MSOFR + 0.26161%
AGNCO is 4.993% + 3MSOFR + 0.26161%
AGNCM is 4.332% + 3MSOFR + 0.26161%
So chances of call dependent on AGNCN and AGNCO called first. That said, AGNC did file to sell $1.5B in common, so is it possible they look to use those proceeds to redeem some/all of their really rich spread issues?
No mention of preferreds…. that doesn’t mean it can’t happen but –
“We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering to finance the acquisition of agency securities, non-agency securities (including credit risk transfer securities), other assets related to the housing, mortgage or real estate markets that are not guaranteed by a GSE or U.S. Government agency, hedging instruments and for other general corporate purposes, such as repayment of indebtedness, working capital and for liquidity needs. Pending this utilization, we may temporarily invest the net proceeds from this offering in readily marketable, short-term, investment-grade, interest-bearing investments, including money market accounts, which are consistent with our intention to maintain our qualification as a REIT. These temporary investments are expected to provide a lower net return than we hope to achieve from our targeted investments in agency securities, non-agency securities, and other mortgage-related assets.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1423689/000142368925000050/atmprosupp-april2025.htm#ic5bd22f97566431f93e85100b30688c5_19
2WR – So with AGNC, I was thinking they’d be all-in on picking up MBS at these high rates, but then I saw how much they’re paying on their preferreds—it’s expensive capital. It might make more sense for them to retire that debt instead of chasing mortgage assets that don’t earn enough to cover it.
Maybe they’re playing the long game. If they think rates are headed lower, locking in high-yield assets now could pay off later—plus, refinancing and then redeeming those expensive preferreds would get a lot cheaper. So maybe they’re not being short-sighted—maybe they’re just a step ahead.
I agree AGNCP unlikely to be called any time soon. Two others ahead of it. Many floaters don’t seem to be in a hurry to call. Waiting to see if rates drop much? They can’t refinance at a good rate now only way to call is if they have enough spare cash to close it out and nothing better to do with it. If that’s what AGNC does with the expansion then common stockholders suffer dilution.
Muni interest exemption: trading at 24 pct at Polymarket for any change at all to the muni interest exemption before 12/31/25.. I don’t know the size of the offer available but it has traded at 50.+ in the past few months.
I wish I could bet on this as a US person. As it resolves to “ yes” even if only new issues or PAB’s become taxable.
I don’t see anything comparable at IB FORECAST trader.
I thought I had posted this yesterday , but the link isn’t showing
after seeing the WSJ article about muni this week, methinks it was bigly oversold because bigly likes the bonds.
bought duration and weakness (CEFs) and am starting to flip the positions and enjoy all the volatility regardless of outcome. I like to stagger in and out the long end of the muni curve and clip and flip over and over.
5s at or near par on the long end is hard to pass up… but my memory is clouded by 2s in 2021, and an absence of any yield at all.
for those interested I really like Bassman’s recent letter. 5s at duration if the terminal rate is 3 seems about right, but what do I know. https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Convexity-Maven-Chekhovs-Gun.pdf
Interesting, but he’s at least 4 years off on the date of the LTCM implosion, as it was 1998, so I have to wonder about many of his facts.
All the named “lines” with cool-sounding names isn’t impressing me , either.
I gave up halfway through. Sorry if you are insulted by my failure.
I name my lines after designer dog breeds. If the puggle line crosses the cavachon line, all hell breaks loose.
Well then,
That explains it. What should I do when my 3 dogs are cloned copies of my previous dog, and I’ve spent $40,000 ordering a new clone of the original dog (at least one , as Viagen Pets implants multiple embryos ) ?
Last time I did this, 8 years ago, it was $50,000 ,
but I have not noticed any substantial change in the CPI for the 20% reduction in price. I do not recall “dog cloning” being in the last consumer survey.
Musk probably cut it, thinking it would raise CPI
not all categories inflate and deflate equally. fcoj, expensive. lean hogs, cheap.
a replacement for man’s best friend at the cost of a mid level hyundai – the market has spoken.
jb,
Sadly , I also own a non- mid-level Hyundai Equus (2014). No longer sold in the US, but the “black car” of Korea. The back seats have controls for executives to use , including one which folds down the front passenger seat.
The dogs stand on that button regularly .
Plastic car, seemingly made to fail. The black color costs $10,000 more than white in S Korea.
the equus is a cool car. old james bond 7 series is too hard to maintain. all the far east black cars are sweet and if you were able to keep it on the road for 12 years, that’s a win. may your dogs not crush your spine.
Dow and Lyondell (SLMNP):
-Neither company is covering it’s dividend with income, even adding back non-cash expenses like depreciation. (I did a 2 minute look at financials so DYODD). There are also significant restructuring charges in the quarterly reports and I didn’t bother to consider whether they were non-cash.
I’m going to bet they both cut the dividend on common in the next few months as cash is way down.
SLMNP is listed on the 6-k as $2 mill per quarter and Lyondell paid $433 mill in common dividends in the quarter, so I don’t think SLMNP dividend, which is, I believe cumulative, is at risk.
Both companies pumped up inventories in the last quarter ahead of tariffs, but still had lower sales and higher cost of sales than the previous quarter.
I can see why some posters here would sell SLMNP above the put price.
To the extent the trend continues, we shall see the affects of tariffs to which the President seems committed.
I still consider SLMNP as having a short-term credit rating of F-2 ,matching the company’s short-term credit rating. That’s one person’s opinion, and I hold the F-2 rating opinion only because a holder can put the preferred. I’m rating it like a debt security
egads, I meant “effects” though I could argue “affects ” could be used also if I’m cornered. However, I won’t tatoo either word on my knuckles.
Three down days and crude is 58. Copper futures -5.5%.
OTOH, MSFT and META up big after hours on earnings.
$2.00 gas. 4.0% 10 year Treasury
“The train to Grinder Switch is running right on time.”
JMO. DYODD
Where did those figures come from? Prediction?
Someone stop me from misconstruing this, but I’m beginning to believe Navarro is nuts:
Peter Navarro: ‘This Was The Best Negative Print… For GDP I Have Ever Seen In My Life’
People from San Diego were glad to see Navarro go.
May be wrong, yet I believe that same phrase also attributed to other economists today . . .
Never been a fan of Navarro, but I do like Scott Bessent .
Not a fan of Navarro or goofy Bessent….neither can articulate a comprehensive economic plan without contradicting themselves..Confusion affects markets..
Well, at least they haven’t declared that inflation is “transitory”.
Goofy, you mean the Disney character Goofy or Yellen issuing debt with short term maturities costing us billions goofy.? Please elaborate. I’ll take goofy but competent any day over that gargoyle Yellen.
And that’s with no offense meant to gargoyles.
Hey guys, does this really have anything to do with planning or working on investments?
Just want to do a gentle reminder without people jumping on someone for straying off the path into politics.
AGREE! Oh… but, they got more likes…yikes.
Spin Doctoring 101 – say it so loud and in a positive tone and the uneducated and ill informed accept as being something good. One might think it was scripted.
I did not see anyone talking about it, but I imagine the reason they are saying it was good is that it being negative was due solely to increased imports that were moved forward the beat the tariffs. Imports apparently go as a negative in GDP calculations. Everything other item on the report was positive, except for government, which was down .25 IIRC.
Navarro explained his reasoning in detail yesterday morning on a financial site.
WSBCP – Just this vague comment made in today’s conference call: “But no, I think that really covers the majority of the balance sheet restructuring. I mean, we certainly do have later in the year, our preferred stock does become callable. And so, we’ll be evaluating that along with some of the sub debt that we acquired from Premier. We’re essentially refinancing that to take advantage of some savings there. But nothing significant outside of that….” First call date = 11/15/25
That would be a “YES, unless we want to look dumb”.
2wr–if only I could get some a dime lower–maybe a gtc at 25.10?
You’re preaching to the choir, Tim…. I had my stink bids in today hoping perhaps for an end of month share dump….. never happened…………..
I bought some at 25.16 in the past week. Figured it was worth it with the dividend coming up in a couple of weeks.
I have a bunch more I got at a much, much lower price years ago.
Been collecting them since 10/22- sorry when they go.
Core PCE ##’s per April 30 data ….
March Core PCE = 2.60%
Feb Core PCE = 3.00% … Revised from 2.80%
Jan Core PCE = 2.70%
Dec Core PCE = 2.90%
Wed Apr 30 Jobs ##’s ……
08:15 ECONX April ADP Employment Change 62K vs. 128K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 147K from 155K
Goods-producing: 26,000
Service-providing: 34,000
Pay for job-stayers rose 4.5 percent in April from a year earlier, a slight deceleration from March. Year-over-year pay gains for job-changers accelerated, rising from 6.7 percent in March to 6.9 percent in April.
Jim–that with the soft GDP numbers and indications of higher prices says stagflation to me.
what going on with bhf?
Private-equity firms are circling life insurer Brighthouse Financial in what could be a $9 billion takeover. Sixth Street and Carlyle submitted a joint bid for the company, one of the largest US specialty insurers, people familiar with the matter said. And offers are on the table from TPG, Apollo, Nippon-owned Resolution Life, Jackson Financial, and Aquarian Holdings, which has backing from RedBird Capital.
Life insurance is now, improbably, the bleeding edge of finance. Customers’ premiums are a juicy source of cash for private investment firms — easier and cheaper to gather than traditional funds, and not owed back to their policyholders for decades. TPG is among the few big buyout shops without its own insurance arm, while Carlyle’s is smaller than those of KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo. The bidders either declined to comment or didn’t return requests. Brighthouse, which the Financial Times reported in January was looking for a buyer, declined to comment.
Brighthouse had $125 billion of investments as of Dec. 31, more than two-thirds of it in the kind of highly rated bonds and loans that Wall Street giants are hungry for. It has a market value of $3.2 billion, but nearly $5 billion of debt that any buyer would have to take on.
I own some BHFAN, which went up about 4% today. By reading the IPO Prospectus, it appears that any merger would result in the surviving entity being responsible for the preferred in question. Are the bidders for BHF that much better credit risks to make the preferred a lesser risk???
Jack–the worry here is that they are bought by private equity and they delist and deregister the preferred then you end up in a situation like AmTrust where the preferreds are trading on the OTC and are stuck in the 13-14/share forever because there is no data available–AmTrust Financial went private and no longer file financials with the SEC.
I understand they worry, I don’t understand why greater uncertainty raises the preferred by 4%.
Very simple. Maybe somebody knows who the buyer is. Some acquirers will dark the preferreds to the expert market. Others will not. Sixth Street tanked ESGRO during the Enstar take-over. Apollo still has insurance preferreds of its subs out there. JMO. DYODD.
I have a different take on BHF vs Amtrust (I own BHFAN). First of all, the Amtrust folks have abused shareholders and preferred owners alike and cannot be, um, trusted. BHF has had operating challenges since it was spun off by MET. There was an SA article from a month or two ago which was negative on the BHF preferreds basically because of balance sheet issues (coverage ratio) and the fact that the parent had to provide $100MM to the operating company to shore up capital ratios. From the article:
“Turning to the Balance Sheet shows that long-term debt, which ranks higher than the preferred stocks at liquidation, accounts for 56% of the Common Equity available. The Trust Preferred data must refer to different assets as the value of the four preferred stocks covered in this article have a combined Par value of $1.625b, making the coverage ratio after LTD an abysmal 1.3X!”
While I agree that delisting might be a concern (going dark even worse), having a larger, better capitalized company take over BHF would be credit positive for the preferreds. My guess is that’s why they went up today.
Lastly, I’ve mentioned this numerous times here, I own the old Delphi Financial preferred which was delisted probably 10+ years ago. I still own it, they have not missed a payment (so far), and it trades around $24. So I don’t think just because something gets delisted that it’s an automatic cellar dweller situation. JMHO.
I’m not understanding the SA article if it says long-term debt is 56 percent of capital.
Debt doesn’t represent any percent of “capital” if one is referring to balance sheet capital as the statement apparently does.
The accounting entry when debt is issued is “ debit an asset,”cash “ and credit a liability , “debt.”
Capital is unaffected .
At issuance , the credit side of the entry for preferred and common stock is to an “ equity” ie capital account.
But, then, everyone knows this.
Am I misunderstanding the cited article, which may mean debt as an offset of capital is 56 percent?
Also, when I looked at the Trust Preferred it was not at all similar to the bank trust preferreds, almost all of which were retired . The bank trust preferreds —at least all the ones I’ve seen, were backed by junior subordinated deferrable interest debentures. The BHF trust preferreds , from memory, are simply a trust holding a preferred stock .
This may seem like a distinction without a difference but it became crucial in several bank takeovers during the GFC when debt was backed by the acquirer but not straight preferred stock.
Sorry I’m off on a tangent but I’m trying to understand .
When I read the SA article it almost felt to me the guy was intentionally trying to fit his opinion into a negative scenario. He does admit, in the comments, that his comparisons to other preferreds was inaccurate. I’ve always thought BHF was hard to understand with all their hedging, as each quarter’s earnings swing wildly based upon how the market has done. Anyway, I think the BHF preferreds are not golden but not trash either. If a buyout does occur, one can only speculate as to what will happen with the preferreds.
TIm, I actually like some of these as an annuity. Grid and I just discussed the ESGRP. Sixth Street acquires, but ESG has insurance, so limited options but possible the preferreds could get delisted like AFFT. They may keep them on the exchange. Takeover is why they already are dragged down. TO me they would have to do buyout at $25 (even if they try lower). This started as a comparision to his purchase of: QUANTUMONLINE.COM SECURITY DESCRIPTION: NSTAR Electric Co., formerly Boston Edison Co., 4.25% Series Cumulative Preferred Stock, $100 par value, redeemable anytime at the company’s option at $103.625 plus accrued dividends, and not mandatorily redeemable.
Distributions are paid quarterly 2/1, 5/1, 8/1 & 11/1. Dividends paid by this preferred security are eligible for the preferential income tax rate of 15% to a maximum of 20%
FWIW
re “Grid and I just discussed…” Tell him hi
It all depends on who buys them. Hope for someone who is publicly traded like JXN. I own some and will just let it play out. All I care about is that they pay over time.
BHF preferred series is not too far off from dark side expert market pricing as it stands for something like BHFAM. Definitely prefer the series with the lower price at this point. The illiquidity might be a benefit if peoples cries for a 4200-4600 print happen.
In this interview Eric Basmajian discusses with great clarity his business cycle model. Eric is one of a kind. I count on his insights. You’ll know after a few minutes listening to Eric if it’s worth your time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pTHfd6tJPA
Where are your kids tonight? For III’ers, our kids are preferreds, babys, and terms. Tonight, we are looking at all babys and terms that mature before 1/1/29, with a twist. If an issuer had more than one issue that matures in that time frame, only the first to mature is listed. The rationale was that the first to mature “should” have a lower probability of defaulting. If you are building a portfolio of these, you might not want to overly concentrate on a single issuer, ie, only choose one issue.
One of the challenges III’ers face is not having easily available, highly precise yields to maturity because of the variability of ex-dividend dates. I have attempted to make this list high precision by properly accounting for ex-dividend dates. While 100% accuracy was the goal, likely there are errors. The YTM listed is the IRR assuming last Friday’s (4/25/25) close price. The issues are sorted by mature date.
Many of these issues have been discussed on III. Three takeaways IMO:
1) Some issues have low IRR’s and should be sold.
2) Many issues have way above market IRR’s indicating the market thinks default is HIGHLY probable. If you own them, you have a hard choice deciding if the market is right or you are right to hold them to maturity.
3) Many issues are in the sweet spot of yields with slightly higher default probabilities, but not obscenely so.
BLACK BOX WARNING: You absolutely, positively must double check these numbers BEFORE taking any buy/sell decisions.
In a CSV format so that 2WR can import them into a spreadsheet in separate columns.
Ticker, baby or term, mature date, IRR, notes
SCCC,Baby,9/30/25,13.4%,Immediately callable
LANDM,Term,1/31/26,6.4%,Immediately callable
NEWTZ,Baby,2/1/26,7.3%,Immediately callable
SPLP-A,Term,2/10/26,12%,Delisting, Immediately callable +MIGHT return common stock, NOT cash
RCC,Baby,2/15/26,8.7%,Immediately callable
BWSN,Baby,2/28/26,55%,Immediately callable
HTFB,Baby,3/30/26,6.3%,Immediately callable
TFSA,Baby,3/31/26,12.5%,Immediately callable
XFLT-A,Term,3/31/26,6.3%,Immediately callable
RILYK,Baby,3/31/26,79.1%,Callable 1/31/26
HROWL,Baby,4/30/26,8.1%,Callable 2/1/26
OCCIO,Term,4/30/26,7.9%,Immediately callable
OXSQZ,Baby,4/30/26,8.1%,Immediately callable
GAINN,Baby,5/1/26,7.3%,Immediately callable
FCRX,Baby,5/25/26,6.6%,Immediately callable
GECCO,Baby,6/30/26,4.6%,Immediately callable
TPTA,Baby,6/30/26,42.4%,Immediately callable
SNCRL,Baby,6/30/26,8%,Immediately callable
METCL,Baby,7/30/26,8%,Immediately callable
CHRB,Baby,8/31/26,30.7%,Expert market & immediately callable
EICA,Term,10/30/26,7.9%,Immediately callable
GREEL,Baby,10/31/26,166.6%,Immediately callable
ARBKL,Baby,11/30/26,170.3%,Immediately callable
ATLCL,Baby,11/30/26,8.6%,Immediately callable
FOSLL,Baby,11/30/26,59.7%,Immediately callable
SSSSL,Baby,12/30/26,6.5%,Immediately callable
HNNAZ,Baby,12/31/26,6.2%,Immediately callable
KTN,Trust,1/1/27,0.6%,Callable 1/1/27
OXLCZ,Baby,1/31/27,8.4%,Immediately callable
SWKHL,Baby,1/31/27,8.8%,Callable 9/30/25
SAT,Baby,4/30/27,7.7%,Immediately callable
GEGGL,Baby,6/30/27,11.3%,Immediately callable
RWAYL,Baby,7/28/27,8.3%,Immediately callable
ATCOL,Baby,10/30/27,8%,Immediately callable
LTSL,Baby,11/30/27,16.8%,Expert market & immediately callable
EP-C,Term,3/31/28,6%,Immediately callable
CRLKP,Trust,4/1/28,12.2%,Expert market & immediately callable
KTH,Trust,4/6/28,6.1%,Callable 4/6/28
ECCX,Baby,4/30/28,7.9%,Immediately callable
TVC,Baby,6/1/28,4.1%,Callable 6/1/28
CSWCZ,Baby,8/1/28,7.5%,Callable 8/1/25
GLADZ,Baby,9/1/28,7.7%,Callable 9/1/25
WHFCL,Baby,9/15/28,8.1%,Callable 9/15/25
CNFRZ,Baby,9/30/28,16.4%,Callable 9/30/25
Tex! I’ve missed you. This report looks like a real doozy. So glad you’re back.
Thanks for your post Tex the 2nd!!
Good reminder- I have quite a few of them-
good to see your posts- thx.
Gary, Don’t hold me to this, I am just going off my memory of ones I hold, HTFB, EICA, ATLCL, LTSL, EP-PC, CSWCZ, WHFCL
THANK YOU Tex, good to hear from you.
Depending on the risk as I see it, I hold in different accounts. Against Tex’s advice I hold several of the EIC and LTS issues.
Hmm… only 5 of these- seem to be in the sweet spots, but plenty of their siblings.
Thanks for the list! It reminded me to check for the slightly longer maturities from some of these issuers. I find more attractive buys in some of these, eg., GAINZ, ATLCZ.
SWKHL looks good to me. Probably buy in my IRA.
I think HROWL&M have no chance of default and paying great rate but short termer’s. I have some others, and gotta check some you’ve made me want to look at. Thanks Tex.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been adding positions and dollar-cost averaging into select investments. While timing the absolute bottom is impossible, I’ve chosen positions I’m willing to hold , barring fundamental changes in their business models. As Jim Collins highlighted in “Good to Great,” successful companies must adapt or risk obsolescence.
With the VIX recently reaching levels comparable to the pandemic – a strong indicator of extreme market fear – I began shifting around the portfolio a bit.
Given my 10-year horizon to retirement and current income streams from dividends and interest covering my needs, I’m sharing my recent additions below to continue generating income as well as capital gains. As always, do your own due diligence (DYOD).
bnj, rlj-a, dtg/dtb, afgb/afge, wrb-e/h, acgln/o, umh-d, psa -h/k, srea, mgr/mgre, dlr-l, fgsn, gl-d, cto-a, aizn, wfc-l, cof-i/j, nsa-b, cta-a/b, cmsc/cmsd, rnr-g, tpgxl, sojc/e, lxp-c, kkrs, nee-n, dlr-l, aizn, eqh -c, jepi, boh-b, eno, syf-b,
I’m not smart enough to know what effect our national debt and trade imbalance will have on future interest rates.
The US sent about 240 billion in interest payments to foreign countries in 2024.
Also our trade imbalance is an even bigger reason for money leaving the US.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-and-mexico-ran-the-biggest-trade-deficits-with-the-u-s-in-2024-what-about-canada-5f70f0fd
Trade imbalances with countries such as Mexico is due to the size difference and development of the country. You can’t expect a country with 1/3 the population to import the same as they export to a richer and more developed country such as the US. As much as it has been stated they are taking advantage of us, it is in reality that we have actually taken just as much from them. Don’t see any way this can change with our countries economy and lifestyle.
Muni holders: I happened to catch this interview on the effects of tariffs on the muni market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-04-24/tariffs-may-raise-building-cost-and-muni-buyers-demands-video
LT, Hard to know how long and at what rate these tariffs will remain. I am more concerned with the loss of tax exemption for the Private Activity Bonds. There is certainly lots of abuse for these bonds (my opinion). However throwing the baby out is possible. Presently, with so many unknowns I favor bond funds. I don’t have time to analyze every issue. I did buy individual ST munis to hold cash. I am getting same yield as MM with tax exempt on top. I always appreciate your posts on this subject.
WSJ has a front page article today about Trump owning quite a lot of munis in his own investment portfolio..for whatever that is worth
byg, thanks for pointing to that or I might have missed it!
539 holdings. That’s 450 more than me!
Torsten Slok (link with charts good on Friday)
https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark
“April 25, 2025
Trade Between China and the US Collapsing
Daily data for container traffic from China to the US is collapsing, see charts below.
The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods.
In addition, we will soon begin to see higher inflation because there are a significant number of product categories where China is the main provider of certain goods into the US market.
In May, we will begin to see significant layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail—particularly in small businesses such as your independent toy store, your independent hardware store, and your independent men’s clothing store. With 9 million people working in trucking-related jobs and 16 million people working in the retail sector, the downside risks to the economy are significant.”
Saw a report on my iphone news- China quietly cutting some US made chips tariff to Zero – also tariff not needed on Qualcomm & Nvidia since they are made in Taiwan. I’m sure we’ll hear about it in today’s reports.
Re: the collapse of China-US trade. Containerized shipping rates (Shanghai index) have dropped ~40% YTD. Ocean container bookings from China are down 25%; globally down 18% (FreightWaves). However, it looks like investors are not yet worried about the shipping companies themselves. Some representative ETFs, all very small.
BOAT SonicShares™ Global Shipping ETF down 6.7% YTD
SEA U.S. Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF down 6.1% YTD
BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF down 2.7% YTD
Ocean shippers are volatile. Just a year ago, BOAT was being touted for its 19% YTD jump, twice the S&P 500’s. YTD And the Shanghai Index had jumped 31% back then. A big drop in these ETFs to reflect market reality might turn them into contrarian plays. JMO. DYODD.
Devastating.
Apologies if this has already been posted. I found it to be an interesting view of what could happen with rates and why it is different now versus the last few decades of failing rates. It’s going to get me to reevaluate my holdings for sure.
Jeffrey Gundlach and Jim Bianco Talk Tariff Turbulence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdT3WmpWPoc
08:31 FXI Chinese Embassy says US and China are not having talks regarding trade or tariffs and U.S. should stop creating confusion –
….. Still a very mixed signal market to make sound decisions.
Thanks Mig. Agree or disagree with that Doubleline Capital YouTube video it was worth watching for a better understanding of good and bad effects of tariffs and possible effect on investments.
That was a great video, but i fear it’s like watching a youtube of a BTC maximalist because it merely reflects what I thought already.
Would you pay this guy X % to essentially gamble on rates with your money when you can do it yourself?
A first-class (long) essay covering the history of US tariffs and current issues and risks.
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/a-tale-of-two-tariffs
“For example, speaking with a top 100 (by trade volume) company in Shanghai yielded the following insight, “By now, we’d be ramping up to begin dealing with orders for the holiday season. We have gotten absolutely none of them.” A dual realization should hit anyone reading that who is unfamiliar with the way importing goods works. First, that ordering for an event begins 8 months prior. Second, that it’s a pretty big shift we’re watching unfold.”
rocks,
thanks for posting that. A very clear and comprehensive history.
Great post, R2S. Anyone that reads it should also read the comments for a take down of the US-China business system and some concerns about Europe.
I love reading about history. Never have read a history of economics this detailed. Thank you Rocks.
In history class we were given an overview in school, understandable as history goes on and the terabytes of information keep growing. I complain they are dumbing down education in school and not teaching history. I was wrong. There are only so many hours in the day in class so schools have to pare down what they can present.
Unfortunately, the old sayings history repeats itself and those who don’t learn are doomed to repeat it.
Without even knowing about this detailed history it confirms what I had been thinking about would happen to American agriculture.
If you wonder what my post has to do with investing it is this.
American farmers produce more food than we can use domestically. The growth of farming and profits has come from exporting and the government buying surpluses and giving it away. If the American farmer is shut out of the export market what is going to happen? what is going to happen to all the businesses that supply or sell products in some way to agriculture. What is going to happen to banks in the farm belt of America that loan to these businesses?
There has been a lot of talk of the boogeyman hiding out in commercial real estate and what can happen to our investments in companies related to that.
What about a second hidden boogeyman in agricultural related investments?
I postulated that the consumer would benefit with lower prices when farmers are forced to dump their surplus products on the domestic market at the expense of farmers losing money and maybe going out of business.
I suggest people read the essay and think about if they are overweight in holdings like CHS, AGM , ADM , MOS, DE, etc
Thanks again Rocks for scouring the internet and sharing what you find. Keep it up.
Additional follow up.
https://www.aba.com/news-research/analysis-guides/top-100-agricultural-banks-by-dollar-volume
Something else that occurred to me regarding goin2cali’s comment. I read the comments at the bottom of the essay and there was a few by a very educated lady that pointed out from my understanding that this structural change is needed. But I am in agreement with other readers that commented that this change is not going to happen overnight and how do businesses plan and invest with a 30 yr time horizon?
My takeaway is long term preferred and bonds investments could be highly risky or at the very least very volatile price wise. In this vision of the future how many of today’s businesses will survive to pay off these investments 30 to 40 yrs from now? I wonder about notes from asset managers like AMG or insurers like PRU or banks like MS ?
Too many to list here. For someone interested in long term investments do your research.
Just a thought.
When it comes to (very) long term investment, I think Uncle Warren knows it very well. If there are undervalued companies whether in insurance, banks, utilities, agriculture, energy, etc, he is likely deploy his $330B+ cash when the opportunity arises. What I’m saying is that keep some dry powder. I do have around 20% of my total net worth in cash, mostly in Tbills and money markets funds earning pathetic low 4% yield. No one can time the market but it just feel good to know you have some dry powders. Wonder how many here in III site keep % of total asset in cash.
RTS…. whew, I got all the way through this! What a detailed thought out piece. Never dreamed in my golden years of retirement I would be both a spectator and participant to such a massive change in the global system. For that matter we all are whether we want to be or not. Thanks for posting.
For the next 60 days, any post I initiate will only be about what I am buying or selling, or new issues that I come across.
I encourage others to do the same.
Thanks SteveA
Civility matters to me. If it matters to you then no personal attacks. If a post makes you angry, count to ten, take a walk. You don’t need to say anything. Or do as pig did, write a calm, reasoned response. Thank you, pig.
Pig I wanted to say Thank you. It was very civil the way you handled it. I agree with rocks, getting tired of the personal attacks.
I’ll go back to my corner and be quiet as this has nothing to do with investing..
Rocks,
Civility matters to me too.
Maybe Tim should make a “venting steam” page for personal attacks, and point it at the “write-only” partition on one of his disk drives….
Perhaps, Wall Street will finally learn a lesson. “Buy the rumor, and Sell the fact” nonsense.
The Street is being played like a fiddle by this administration. They are not even talking with China.
This mantra of buying rumors not facts has been going on for decades and decades.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Better link
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/china-says-no-talks-with-the-us-on-trade-calls-for-canceling-unilateral-tariffs.html
Steve, With all due respect, you (and anybody else for that matter) don’t have a clue what is going on (or not) behind the scenes. We are hearing exactly what the Chinese & US want you to hear. Chinese leadership cannot be seen as working with the Americans on anything that might hurt the Chinese economy and its people. It’s best, I think, to not get wrapped up in it emotionally and carry on. A CNBC article is not going to clear up any ambiguity about it, sorry.
Agree with you, Pig.
What we see from China is exactly what they want us to see.
None of the stuff they release to the “west” is even visible inside China. Great Firewall blocks it. So, it is all propaganda targeted at western readers to support their political positions.
Chinese domestic news is fascinating to follow. it is very often 180 degrees opposite of what they say to the outside world.
So, can’t believe China, and can’t believe Trump – so go to the fallback Ouija board? (or does CNBC fill that role?)
Private, With respect to your last question there. Yes, they have Cramer. lol
Folks, it was Bessent and Trump comments within the last few days that caused market optimism. I had a link from CNBC referring to that. CNBC is a business website.
China is saying no talks unless unilateral tariffs are removed. I had links also from CNBC websites.
This is rumored news impacting markets. I do not believe markets should react to it but they do. You can all deny that markets buy the rumor and sell the news. That is what they do.
If you choose to listen to only what the adminstration says, that is your choice.
Steve A – We all know the Chinese are known for their honesty and fair dealings so I have no reason to doubt anything they say. Thanks again for another helpful post!
I just got done buying more AILIH for $64.80. AILLP has an ask of $64.55 and AILLN has an ask of $79.
I also scooped up a decent amount of AILIH for $64.80 today. No fill on $64
Hey Steve A – Thanks for posting your opinions about the Trump administration again. I’ve been looking all over the internet for people’s opinions about Trump but haven’t been able to find any so I’m so glad to be able to find your comments here on this preferred stock investing website.
Isn’t it incredible that a majority of voters still picked Trump over the option that the Democrat party selected to be at the top of their ticket?
With that said, maybe I should get back to managing my investments now…
Dick – SteveA’s post was perfectly legit for the Sandbox page.
On a separate topic, for all who have been jumping on others because their posts aren’t strictly about investing, keep in mind that it is possible to search for your past posts, and almost all of you are guilty of sharing personal experiences and non-investment thoughts. The Covid period is packed with completely off-topic lengthy rants, including by you. I’ve enjoyed reading about Grid’s golf outings, and I’ve mourned the personal losses of others. When I don’t have time, or are simply not interested, I quickly scroll past and move on.
Years ago, ( back on April 17, 2025am !! ), one of our posters wrapped up a nice SPY graph with … ” patience is warranted “.
I keep trying to find some interesting common stk items and, for me, keep pulling back.
On Thursday April 17 did a close recap for a adult grandson of six major name items he has ( AAPL, some Banks, DE, ect ) …. Best of the lot from Jan 17, 2025 to Apr 17…. MCD !!! up 9.5%
Pardon the last paragraph…..
So your first move is to take the CCP at face value? Wowzers. Wondering if you believe that the plague they released on the world was actually something that originated in a wet market and happened by pure accident? Your TDS is as real as the preferred dividend suspension on RILYP.
SNCRL is called:
Item 8.01.
Other Events.
On April 11, 2025, Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a conditional notice of full redemption (the “Notice”) to the holders of its
outstanding 8.375% Senior Notes due 2026 (the “Notes”) pursuant to which, subject to the Condition (as defined below), the Company will redeem all of the
outstanding aggregate principal amount of the Notes (the “Redemption”) on May 11, 2025 (“Redemption Date”), payable on May 12, 2025 (the “Payment
Date”), at a redemption price equal to $25.25 per $25.00 principal amount of such Notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest thereon, if any, to, but excluding,
the Redemption Date (the “Redemption Price”). The obligation of the Company to redeem the Notes is subject to the consummation by the Company of a
debt financing transaction (the “Debt Financing Transaction”) with an aggregate principal amount of at least $200 million (the “Condition”). In the Company’s
discretion, the Redemption Date and related Payment Date may be delayed until such time as the Condition shall be satisfied or waived, or the Redemption
may not occur and the Notice may be rescinded in the event that the Condition shall not have been satisfied or waived by the Redemption Date and related
Payment Date or by the Redemption Date and related Payment Date as so delayed. This Current Report does not constitute a notice of redemption with
respect to the Notes.
101% for early redemption of SNCRL…sounds good to me!
What is a little strange is that if they waited until 30 June 2025 they could have called at $25 and saved two bits a share.
They would have paid additional for dividend. Looks like a savings of 4-5 cents/share. I guess every penny counts – and could be they may need to get this retired for some other financing (just a guess).
Unexpected. I bought some on April 1 at 24.45. The yield will be 5.4% but annualized 49%…LOL.
Am I missing something that this isn’t a call yet, and is subject to financing?
Thank you, lt! Conditional call. Just like buying a house. No financing, contract canceled.
Before I do a deep research dive on large bank perpetual preferreds, I am curious to know if anyone else has taken a look at redemption history of low coupon issues from institutions such as JPM, GS, BAC, MET, ALL, etcetera. With many of these highly rates issues now yielding above 6% I’d like to buy some with the least likelihood of being redeemed. A significant yield to call would be, of course, nice but I’d rather have 6%+ yield on cost if the 10 year ends up in the 3s in a year or two.
Does anyone have feedback? If I have to dig in, I’ll share the results assuming there is interest here.
I never fear a call on something I buy below par. Take the profit and buy whatever is best at the time. I can’t time the market and I don’t worry about making the perfect trade at the perfect time.
Those you mentioned don’t seem to be in a hurry to call things, especially floaters.
Absolutely. Seems like a great project.
If you are trying to avoid calls, check out BAC.L and WFC.L. Both are banking convertibles paying over 6% and are essentially non-convertible … meaning no call.
Ironically I had bought each of these in about 2022/2023 when they were fairly close to par (a bit above) and traded out of them but probably should not have. There were lots of opportunities at the time. If the 10Y gets to 5% maybe these will drop enough to yield 7% and will be interesting again.
Yield Hunter,
I have only two banks in my IRA, don’t like them much, as they are not cumulative and being perpetual doesn’t help.
HBANL 6.875% ( 3 years to first call or 5 yr. treasury + 2.704%)
Not a large bank, but a well run one.
As a former owner of Lehman Bros. S&P “A” rated bonds, I have little confidence in anyone’s ratings.
Also I own MS-F 6.88% callable each dividend date, next one is 7/15. It is selling close to $25 so even if it is called, you won’t lose.
GMLPF……. I own some snd it’s long been on the problem child list. Has been bouncing around $10 for a long time, but crashed to $4! Has regained back to around $6 today. I looked for any news and couldn’t find any. Anybody know what caused this?
I had some bits of this before. Was it taken private by a hedge fund? Any word on ending of informal reporting or cutting the dividend? It looks like there was a Feb 2025 dividend still. There looks to have been about 10 trades or more today. It might be worth establishing a relationship with someone at the company via email. Just an idea…
Yield Hunter…….. GMLP, the company who issued GMLPF, was purchased by New Fortress Energy in 2021 and has stripped virtually all of the assets of GMLP. NFE has continued to pay the dividend including issuing an irrevocable letter of support 2023 stating they would continue to support the dividend. However, NFE became financially overextended considerably culminating in a major raise of capital in late 2024 and restructuring their debt. Nothing was addressed on GMLPF at that time other than NFE has continued to pay the dividend. NFE is doing better since the restructuring and appears to be out of the woods for the time being. I looked on the NFE website and could find no news release that would have prompted this crash. I hold GMLPF and if it survives 2025 I will reach the break even point considering dividends if it becomes worthless. I would prefer that it be worth something at that time obviously so I would walk away in the black some. Best outcome is for NFE to honor this thing and redeem it or make a reasonable tender offer for it. I will file it in the “lesson learned” file then……..
@dj: Some more color to NFE status from SA
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4769446-new-fortress-energy-going-concern-risk
Behind the paywall……..
It seems like you are fairly up to speed and my comment didn’t add much value. That 10K filed on EDGAR is hairy to say the least.
The big dip looks like it occurred on 4/21 at about 14:10. I went down the rabbit hole and I’m only finding the 700M debt issuance by Excelerate Energy to acquire NFE Jamaica asset(s). 25,000 shares traded that day give or take. I’m curious too. Maybe the SA article linked by costasco scared the market
Yield Hunter…. Thanks for checking when the crash actually happens. I knew they were trying to sell the Jamaica facility, but honestly hadn’t checked the In FE website or read about it. I think the sell of it was part of the capital raise / restructuring plan from late last fall. For GMLPF if NFE trashes GMLP and along with GMLPF that may reflect badly on NFE on issuing debt in the future or raising capital. Wes Edens, the CEO of NFE is a pretty savvy financial person and knows this. Maybe he comes up with a honorable solution that doesn’t trash NFE’s reputation in the debt market and we all come out ok in the future. At least that’s my hope!
Out of all the accounts we hold the main one was down .08% on the day. No low ball GTC orders hit so no one was throwing out any babies with the bath water, at least for the ones I am looking for.
One way to make this site more investor friendly is to use the dedicated pages for specific ideas (not chatter) and the Sandbox for general chatter. For example:
– Reader initiated alerts: Share a fresh buy or something of immediate value.
– Common stock chat: Use for common stocks and options, not the Sandbox.
– $1000 bond discussion: Comments on CUSIPs show up randomly on different pages. This is where they belong except maybe if the CUSIP is a preferred.
Well I am now understanding folks that mentioned getting booted behind the paywall at SA. I am using SA less and less as the folks reviewing are getting worse and worse, so I find it hard to “pay”. But I still liked to find new ideas etc. Now, I will look elsewhere. Can I ask for referrals from this crowd? I have fastgraphs, QOL, and III and then my brokerage info. I could go to the Panick report or one or two other older time SA folks (maybe Leo within iREIT but not for REITs!). Any recommendations from this crowd I’d like to check out. Thanks in advance.
Concerning the SA articles, what would two or three improvements be that you believe would make the articles better?
I pay for Morningstar. They are professionals and stick to their knitting.
I can log in through my local library and access Morningstar for free, which is great.
But Morningstar does not cover many of the smaller cap issuers I am interested in. That is where SA used to be a valuable resource.
Thanks so much Westin 18. Would you elaborate more on the risk credit spread rising… in the 4th paragraph? Thanks
Pete
Securities’ prices are impacted by changes in interest rates and changes in the Risk Spread.
The Risk Spread is the spread between “riskless” securities (Treasuries) and the increased yield required for the perceived riskiness’ of that security.
The URL below outlines the change in the Risk Spread of High Yield securities over Treasuries over time.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
As you can see, during times of economic stress/fear, the Risk Spread has been as high as 800 bps.
Earlier this year the Risk Spread reached a historic low of 240bps.
Jumped to 441 bps during tariff shock, now 416.
Thanks so much for taking your time to reply. I understand the why better now. People will naturally flee to safety or simply avoid actual or perceived risk or a combination of both.