I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
Ramaco Resources – METC, METCL, METCZ – Kind of a contrarian company to be bringing up in this market, but I noticed METCZ closed at 23.38 today, down 1.76%. At 23.38, I think the YTM is 10.70% for this 2029 maturity senior note. Too cheap??? Volume wasn’t overly high but there was an obvious seller toward the close…… I’ve been a long time holder of METCL which closed unchanged on the day and has YTM of 8.30% for its shorter maturity 7/30/26. So is METCZ too cheap or METCL too high???
2WR I own both METCL and METCZ. I’m hoping the yield on METCZ is a bit too high
but it is 3 1/3 or so years longer out than METCL too.
Met coal has gotten to be a tougher business over the last year. One (admittedly minor) player, Corsa Coal, went bankrupt just a few months ago.
I can understand investors being more reluctant to be exposed to Ramaco’s debt for four years. It’s probably fine, but…
I believe Ramaco exports a significant amount of Met Coal to China. That could be a real problem that would drag down equity pricing, particularly on the common or longer term debt. METCL has about 14 months left before it matures and may not be so affected. I have owned a full position in METCL since issuance and it has been a great holding. Hope I still feel that way 14 months from now……
I wonder….. China has said it may restrict exports to the US of rare earths. Could Met Coal be used as leverage against that?
Or does China have plenty and they just choose to import ours to preserve their supply?
Oh, and in reply to Pig Pile below – I hope you stay around as well. I have appreciated your perspective and I have gotten actionable ideas from you. And I do not think you misread the room, but I feel the room dynamic has changed somewhat. While there is still plenty of investing focus, it seems to now have a bit (a lot) more of a social blog feel.
I too would appreciate a few less stories and a bit more commentary on market conditions, actionable information, breaking news items that have a direct effect on preferreds, BB’s , etc.
Mark,
I doubt the US has enough coal leverage to force China’s hand on rare earths (lots of other levers – time will tell what works).
I am not an expert in this area, but I have some (ancient) experience with miners and i invest a little in the industry.
China imports a lot of met coal. Their steel industry depends on it. For a lot of years, China has used steel production as a way to bolster the economy (heavily subsidizing steel exports and shipbuilding).
-first question (to me) is on the demand side. How much will the Chinese steel industry suffer from tariffs, port fees, (etc.) that will lower their need for met coal? We haven’t done any analysis on it (no client interest), but it is an issue to think about. On a similar note – even with the “push” on coal by the trump administration, I wonder how much other countries will try to look elsewhere for met coal in response to the tariffs on steel.
-In recent years, China imported a lot from the US and from Australia. China was in a political tiff with Australia where China “punished” Australia by reducing mineral imports but that (mostly) got settled earlier this year, so I suspect China is buying more from them. Personally, that has me buying a little of the Australian producers like RIO and BHP on the dips (disclosure – I have personal history with those companies, but there are half a dozen others). IIRC, there are a couple of Canadian miners and one in South Africa (can’t recall the name) that may also be players.
-Russia is a significant met coal producer. I would think their steel production would be down (from sanctions), so I would expect some coal to be “leaking” into China despite sanctions. Again, we haven’t investigated/researched, but I suspect it is happening if there is Chinese demand. If true, that would also reduce demand for US coal.
Disclosure – I am still long a little bit of METCL and METCZ. I sold most of my shares a couple of months ago when (when their prices spiked up) because of DJT’s threats against China, but I still hold a bit that is under water. I also own some Australian mining companies.
There is also talk of METC’s supposed development of rare earth mining in WY, potentially building “the first new REE mine opened in the United States since 1952.” https://www.mining.com/ramaco-resources-wyoming-rare-earth-project-gets-6-1m-grant/ I’ve read lots of back and forth opinions on this idea – that it’s nothing more than a pipe dream vs METC being considered to be sitting on an unbelievably valuable asset…. who knows – Could this possibly be capable of being considered a wedge in China’s lock in rare earth elements? I have my doubts as does Mr. Market apparently
Ramaco isn’t the only one trying to do rare earths in the US.
Several years ago, I did some digging (pardon the pun) into MP Materials (symbol MP), which runs the Mountain Pass mine California. The mine’s prior owner was Molycorp, which went BK about 10 years ago. (disclosure: I owned some Molycorp debt for a while but managed to get out with my shirt intact). MP restarted production and says they produce 15% of global shipments of rare earths. they have have been shipping the ore to China (Shenghe, IIRC).
I saw a blurb recently that they are going to stop shipping raw materials to Shenghe (tariffs make it uneconomical) and are trying to shift to selling elsewhere/selling processed materials (can’t remember where I saw that).
From memory Ramaco had a poor past quarter. Also, executive order to quicken mining for coal companies did not include this company. No opinion on the quality or safety of the note.
I refreshed my memory of Ramaco and I will share the highlights as I see them. They do export Met Coal to South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, India, and China, but I could not find a breakdown by country. Ramaco also exports to a good number of European Countries. In 2024 they exported over 2/3’s of their total production of about 4 million tons, which makes them a major exporter. However, that 4 million tons of annual production earns them the rank of a minor player in the Met Coal business. It appears they are very dependent on the export market for Met Coal and could be slammed by a global trade war. If needed they do have the capacity to almost double their production from their existing mines. They have a lot of competition for Met Coal both in the US and worldwide, with Australia being a major player. To Ramaco’s credit they manage to produce Met Coal at a very competitive price and it appears to be of high quality too, giving them an advantage in the marketplace. They did have a slow fourth quarter 2024, primarily due to the decline in price of Met Coal. An unknown in Ramaco’s future is their claim of a major find of rare earth elements in the Brook Mine coal mine in Wyoming they purchased several years ago. Trace amounts of rare earth elements can be found in coal mines. The problem is the cost of extracting them. Ramaco has been working with several third parties on determining how much rare earth elements they have and the cost of extracting them. This may be a bust or a big addition to Ramaco’s bottom line. That’s the big unknown. So far Ramaco has been funding the rare earth investigation mostly on their own. That’s the extent of my knowledge on Ramaco. I have 14 months before my full position in METCL matures (or I sell it!) Maybe the picture will be clearer then and I will feel comfortable rolling over to METCZ. If you are going to invest in METCL or METCZ you better do some deep diligence. A good place to start is the company website. There is a lot of information on the rare earth investigation. METCL has been a wonderful holding for me, but there are a lot of things to consider here before committing to an investment.
Tuesday 7:40pm NY….. Hat’s Off & Thanks to the recent posters on the Met Coal topic / Cos.
Have not paid any attn to the industry or companies. Good warnings by all.
Yet super educatn comments to get a quick, well schooled, picture.
Due to the above, I will be looking harder into industry.
Thanks
Very strong balance sheet…
Honest question. Would love to have an honest answer. Is this site still an income site? Was it ever or did I simply misread the room before joining in the discussion here? I’d like to know if this is worth my time anymore (it doesn’t seem to be) or if anyone knows another site I can go besides SA.
Pig, there is SVI Silicon Valley Investors.
I get ideas from your posts so you will be missed.
We do posting on what we think is happening in the market in general and on specific areas.
I have found like Tim if I post on specific stocks before I take a position then the goal gets moved on me.
Goin2Cali talke about BDC’s and specific stocks and I looked into the common on several only to learn it’s too early as they are still dropping.
Tim posted about GGN-PB and I didn’t follow but made the choice to buy GGN
Westie18 has posted on the common of several good companies with the thoughts of future growth in a recovery. He named specific companies with low debt and low P.E Again it seems the drop in the market today is showing it’s still too early to go in.
In general, I enjoy ideas of where people think the market may be headed and if anyone mentions specific stocks I file them in the back of my mind to check back on them after the interest has died down.
We have had discussions on fixed rate, floaters, and fixed rate reset. Honestly it’s anyone’s guess where they will be at 2 to 5 yrs from now.
No problem with those discussions and thoughts you mention. How many pounds of bullshit do I need to sift through to get there?
All one has to do it scan recent posts and this place is becoming unfocused chatting about almost any financial topic or opinion. A reader alert is lost from the front page in an hour during biz hours. I click something on the sandbox and it is just repeated stuff from a financial news site, social media, or SA. People just need to stay on topic and not discuss some trade they did which is not related to the topics we normally discuss here.
Pig, it’s a good income site and plenty of income posts if you skip what you aren’t interested in. Economic changes are happening fast and furious so it makes sense to discuss their impact. Some posts get lost in political posturing but there’s plenty worth reading. Still the best site out there if it matches your investment style
Pig-
What investments would you like to discuss? I made a post about PFFA with a list of pros and cons. No one replied.
R2S …. re the Monday mid-day postings as to finance ideas …. I found your Thursday Apr 17, 10:38 post re the recent AND prior chart of the SPX rally and selloff chart very useful. Your comment made on that April 17 post re ….
” Patience is warranted ” seemed right on. Thurs post with SPX at 5297 …..
Monday Apr 21 close at 5158.
Beyond the ###’s , your posted long term ( Monthly ? ) chart pic seems very helpful.
Thanks for the macro focus.
R2S – I saw your post about PFFA, I own a small amount, I’m underwater on it, and I don’t see it recovering any time soon. My only comments about PFFA are to myself, about myself, and not fit for public consumption. This is III, after all, not Fark.com.
PS – I read all your posts, and I click on the links. Please keep posting.
PFFA is an interesting etf that was unknown to me. Lots of heavily discounted preferred stocks from below IG companies. But, companies that are likely to survive. If a few fail or stop paying pref dividends, it should not be a huge impact on the dividend. An interesting risk / reward play. I took a small position.
Virtus ETFs should remain unknown. Hatfield does poorly over time. 0.80 mgmt fee and total fees of 2.48. Uses leverage and knowing that ETF will use it poorly. AMZA is a great example of how well they have done with MLPs which is a disaster. The people who just bought the common stock of MLPs back when AMZA started are doing fine unlike anyone who bought that ETF.
Would not buy PFFA….
fc-
I love my AMZA, bought in 2020, YOC 22%. I know your dislike for Virtus, but I can’t fault the behavior of AMZA or PFFA. I’m underwater PFFA and don’t care. I like the monthly yield. PFFA is an interest rate vehicle. Rates go up and down. If rates went up and never came down, I’d be miffed. 70s redux?
good comment.. although infrequent I do occasionally get some issue specific comments which I would not have been aware of… preferred stock channel does have a feed which does highlight when an issue trades at a certain yield level
I hope you hang around, you have made some valuable contributions. I don’t post much but read a lot, disappointed at the change in tone with some of the discussions. Can we all just take a breath and get back to working on investment ideas? I think it’s only natural that the longer people spend on the site, the more personal information comes into it, that is, regions of the country in which they live or personal experiences with different investments. We have lost some valuable contributors over the years due to some of the petty disagreements. We can just keep our thoughts and ideas within the rails and hopefully this site will continue to be the wonderful location for sharing information and ideas that it has always been. Thank you Tim for all that you do.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/columnists/mike-kelly/2020/01/24/donald-trump-still-owes-money-to-contractors-who-built-taj-mahal-atlantic-city/4547037002/
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https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/13/politics/trump-small-business-owners/index.html
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https://apnews.com/article/10bbe40a86774bac9ad1fbd3a936c808
Charles M – What the hell is this post?
Going full political with stuff we all know. Please get back on the financial / stocks track.
I ask that of everyone here before III implodes.
That’s history Gary
Read into it whatever you want.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/jan_2022/covid_19_democratic_voters_support_harsh_measures_against_unvaccinated
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https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-executive-branch-18fb12993f05be13bf760946a6fb89be
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https://gazette.com/opinion/perspective-democrats-knew-school-closures-were-disastrous/article_d5758bf6-309e-11ee-9566-771dfa06100b.html
While I might agree- there is no point in posting it.
Did you hear about that Holocaust thing? Or Kennedy being shot… ad nauseam.
Please, enough! It’s damaging what Tim has worked so hard for, and what many of us contribute $ support.
I hear Lindbergh landed. No?
Custer’s presidential hopes ended with the massacre I hear.
I was waiting for someone to be the first to say that. My dues are paid up to Nov.
A practical suggestion for those who don’t mind my posts.
While putting on my shoes to go out into the garden like Westie 18 I noticed the tip of one shoe was starting to loosen. Mentally I have been complaining about the quality of outdoor sneakers the last couple years as I noticed the Chinese manufacturers use a one piece sole to wrap up and over the front of the shoe to make the toe protector. This is usually the stress point where the sole starts to peel away. I keep a tube of shoe goop handy to try to extend the life of the shoe.
Big sporting goods companies like Big 5 and Dick’s have to plan 6 months ahead to have stock here in the states for holidays like their Memorial Day and 4th of July sales. They learned during Covid that disruptions to just in time delivery can happen so I assume they already have stock in warehouses.
Footware is essential and none of it is made in the US.
Stores were closed for Easter. I suggest moving up your buying of anything you were waiting to buy on sale during the upcoming Memorial sales that kickoff the summer holidays. Either that or buy a couple tubes of shoe goop.
“Footware is essential and none of it is made in the US.”
Charles, do you ever verify much of anything you post here? This statement is completely false.
A simple 9 second internet search reveals dozens of pages with info about Made in the USA footwear, although I’m still struggling to understand why you ever made the post to begin with. Shoe goop? Wowzers.
I’m curious to find out if shoe goop aggrivates Dick’s urinary issues down in hot Texas.
Good grief.
https://www.allamericanmade.com/shoes-made-in-usa/
I physically shop at the stores and I go by what I can afford Franklin. The styles I like for instance is one reason. A lot of hiking shoes low top and high top don’t have the tongue sewn up the sides to keep out dirt and stickers.
You just Googled to prove a point. I have never owned a pair of New Balance and I don’t wear sandals and last time I bought Redwing I paid several hundred dollars and it was over 50.00 to get the sole repaired. The jobs I had in building required me to walk on asphalt and concrete and the expensive pair of Wolverine soles didn’t last any longer than the shoes I bought at Walmart.
Sorry Franklin I worked hard for my money and didn’t do a lot of shopping at Macy’s or Nordstrom.
As for “Dick” he shows up when he wants to have fun and bully people.
This is the sandbox where Tim asked people to post stuff that isn’t on topic or financial. When was the last time you read anything Financial from Dick?
I gave him a chance to contribute something on the stock TRIN considering he is from Tx and instead all he wants to do is avoid engaging and instead entertaining you .
How about giving me some recommendations on the stock of these US footwear markers if you want to stick to the financials.
Stop deflecting, Charles, as though you’re going to now start researching investments in US footwear makers simply because your shoe fell apart. That’s akin to buying GS stock solely because you like chowing down on Cheerios. It further discredits your completely false postings. Move along.
Charles – I gotta say, your shoe goop saga’s got me squirming worse than my hemorrhoids on a hot Texas day. You’re out here whining about sneaker soles peeling like it’s a global conspiracy, and then you drop that “no footwear’s made in the USA” bomb? Come on, man, that’s lazier than my bladder control. Franklin nailed it—a nine-second Google search pulls up brands like Red Wing, Thorogood, and even some New Balance kicks still made stateside. You didn’t even try, just leaned into your goop obsession like it’s the answer to world peace.
I’m no Macy’s shopper either—my wallet’s as tight as my Depends when I’m out checking preferred stock yields. But you’re acting like US-made shoes are all $500 unicorn boots. I tried goop once, by the way, on some old loafers. Ended up with sticky fingers and a shoe that looked like it got attacked by a glue gun. Meanwhile, my hemorrhoids were screaming because I was crouched over too long trying to “fix” it. Now I just buy better shoes and call it a day.
Speaking of my woes, since you dragged me into this, let’s dive in. My urinary incontinence is a nightmare—last week, I was at the diner, mid-conversation about CMS-C’s capital gain potential, when my bladder decided to sell all positions. I leaked right through my diaper, left a wet spot on the booth, and had to fake a coughing fit to distract my buddy Carl. I waddled to the bathroom, pants clinging like a bad trade, and found my hemorrhoids had joined the party, howling like a busted yield curve. I’m there, dabbing with toilet paper, cursing my life, with a tube of Preparation H in my pocket that smells like a chemical spill. That’s my reality, Charles, and it’s still more productive than your sandbox rants.
That’s more than you’ve contributed lately. You’re not posting insights—you’re just moaning about Walmart shoes and goop. This ain’t your gardening blog!
Dick you gotta stop. I just laughed so hard I snotted all over myself
“Footware is essential and none of it is made in the US.”
Charles, do you ever verify much of anything you post here? This statement is completely false.
A simple 9 second internet search reveals dozens of pages with info about Made in the USA footwear, although I’m still struggling to understand why you ever made the post to begin with. Shoe goop? Wowzers.
I’m curious to find out if shoe goop aggrivates Dick’s urinary issues down in hot Texas.
Good grief.
https://www.allamericanmade.com/shoes-made-in-usa/
Spoof?
Charles—Franklin and Dick have lambasted you? Where’s Pete? The MAGA trio usually band together. Pete must be away from his computer.
Thanks for the kind words Whidbey. Let’s be civil and leave Pete out. He offered to start a civil discussion this week. I look forward to it.
Just got a personal education in fixed rate duration/credit spread risk.
On 3/25, I (and, I believe others on this site) bought a Jeffries 6.0% BAA2 bond maturing 2044 callable 10/25 for 97.10.
Nice, safe, investment.
It is currently priced at 88.85 for an unrealized loss of 8.5% in 25 days.
Ouch
Westie,
88.85 sounds wrong. I looked through my Jeffries bonds and the prices reported by Schwab. I don’t have yours, but nothing about the prices of mine suggests anything that low.
https://www.finra.org/finra-data/fixed-income/bond?symbol=LUK5913300&bondType=CORP
rocks
FIDO valuation
Yeah
As I pondered later, it is probably the bid on FIDO’s weak bond site for a small buy
Still, the point remains – there is duration and risk spread risk.
87.826 x 89.836
$5 million up
“whaddaya wanna do?”
I bought more August MUB 101 puts this morning. I HOPE they go to zero because
I’m assuming any muni bond exemption changes, or at least the likelihood of such will be on the table by August expiration.
If I lose 100% on the 42 puts I have, that will be offset by profit shortying MUB earlier.
I’ve done the same with PFF
I bought about 40 puts on hyg and was able to turn them over on the rip to fund the next setup, kinda like how you shorted mub…boy the spreads are terrible on pff and mub and hyg. we aren’t at 2023 low yet and there comes a point where I’d want to go longer on hy and Muni…I guess in the case of mub an actual policy change would be about 100-150bps (?), though Ive noted many R’s are speaking against such action in the Congress. I remain long on some level of duration under the opposite rational stated above: recent memory for people my age is no yield, and I’m equal parts concerned about less yield than more being available, and view with equanimity that some positions are down when plenty of gains were realized on the way up from Oct 23 to Oct 24.
good comment.. jef/spy pair has gone from 3 sigma rich in january to over 2 sigma cheap today ..on absolute basis stock has dropped nearly in 1/2
Less than two weeks ago I put some cash into two MYGA’s paying 4.75% and 5.15% for 5 years. Not for everyone, but works for me. NY Life and Midland National. Helps with the sleep factor, the account values go up every day.
Number of II posts the last few days from top 40 posters:
Charles M 39
Rocks2stocks 34
lt 17
Gary 15
Dick Whitman 13
SteveA 10
mjtroll 10
af 7
Westie 16 6
BearNJ 6
Maine 6
NewToThis2015 6
pig pile 6
Martin G 5
Yield Hunter 5
costasco 4
tizod 4
rk160 4
Newbie 3
Justin 3
Jim 3
Franklin 3
John F Olsen 3
FC 3
Jim H 2
h-ster 2
mbg 2
jb 2
Greg Gilbert 2
Don Cary 2
Bill S 2
Mike D 2
PetoskeyMI 1
Mark in CO 1
ESW3 1
DJ 1
Pete 1
KingCash 1
FL_Guy 1
2whiteroses 1
Add one more– not sure what this implies.
Wasn’t aware there was a way to count them.
Is there an award for 1st place or last place?
The last place trophy goes to the person in first place. Or vice versa, I can’t recall.
Torsten Slok today:
It normally takes 18 months on average for the US to negotiate a trade deal, see chart below.
Why does it take so long? Because trade negotiations involve going through what is imported into each country line by line and then negotiating the tariff for each product category (t-shirts, pencils, cars, pharmaceuticals, lawnmowers, services, etc.). The negotiations also involve discussions about non-tariff barriers, tax differences, rules of origin discussions, IP rights, labor standards, environmental standards, anti-dumping, dispute resolution, digital trade and e-commerce, government procurement, and sometimes security and defense considerations.
We reiterate our view that if current policies do not change, then the probability of a US recession in 2025 is 90%.
Rocks,
I really liked reading that and have bookmarked it. I wonder how it makes sense to own any perpetual preferred stock at 6-7% or IG bond when the 20 yr treasury is at 5% and term premiums are widening.
My friend who is the BTC maximalist and gold bug is looking damn good right now, although he’s likely going to be correct for the wrong reasons…sort of like the neighbor kid who bought NVDA for it’s gaming chips.
> I wonder how it makes sense to own any perpetual preferred stock at 6-7% or IG bond when the 20 yr treasury is at 5% and term premiums are widening.
I’m not sure that it does. I no longer own any perpetuals, and even vastly cut down my fixed-to-floaters.
I’m not sure that being in the money markets–which is where all my proceeds currently sit–is the best place to be either, but I’m not sure what is. Maybe gold or Swiss francs.
Random thought while working in the garden………
You already know my underwriting background.
I got paid to underwrite (predict).
Hero if I’m right, syonara if I am wrong.
If I had to bet my xxxx on the course of interest rates 2025-2026, I would bet:
Short term interest rates will drop whether for economic (recession) or political reasons. IMHO, fed funds in the 2’s by the end of 2026.
I would conversely bet that longer term interest rates will rise because of the Risk Credit Spread rising in both the public and private sectors.
Guessing + 200 bps in private sector – higher in junk.
In the US gov’t sector, my concerns are: foreign funds flight, my expectation that the Big Beautiful tax cut Bill will pass, and finally that the President will continue to jawbone interest rates, replacing fed governors as soon as he can with loyalists. IMHO His determination/ability to gain control of the fed is the greatest threat to long US gov’t rates. I offer no prediction as to long rates’ rise – My only conviction is that they are unlikely to fall.
I offer the thoughts above because of my reading of the continuing fixed/floating discussion. Which one to choose?
IMHO
Both fixed/floating have serious potential issues.
Floating’s issue is reduced yield.
Fixed issue is the potential of capital loss.
I see no easy solution
Another explanatory experience….
I was the Executor for my father in the late 1970’s.
He lived on the 4% tax free return of a portfolio of municipal bonds.
When interest rates rose into the teens, his 4% return became woefully inadequate. But we could not sell any of his bonds – they were worth 50% on the dollar.
We had to make some very painful adjustments.
Hard to forget.
Less than two weeks ago I put some cash into two MYGA’s paying 4.75% and 5.15% for 5 years. Not for everyone, but works for me. NY Life and Midland National. Helps with the sleep factor, the account values go up every day.
There’s the term preferreds that must be redeemed that could be held in the interim with this thesis.
That sounds like a tough situation to have had to deal with and I regularly think about this kind of scenario with the perpetual allocations.
Yield Hunter,
I find myself moving more of my “base” income bucket into preferreds that have a definite redemption date and into bonds/baby bonds with fairly short remaining terms. Trying to protect capital while earning a resaonable return.
Still flipping some shares in my “riskier” bucket. all this volatility makes for great opportunities, but it is starting to take more time/attention that I can afford every day.
Hi Private, I have learned a lot from your posts. I believe you have a fair amount of personal experience in China and have commented on some of the economic and political problems they are having. In light of this how far do you think they can or would push the tariff negotiations?
Hi Pete,
Short answer is I don’t know.
At the risk of being accused of rambling too much, here is what I think:
I talk to a lot of folks in China almost daily and to folks elsewhere in Asia at least weekly and most of my contacts are as baffled as we are.
Xi will keep up a strong face about tariffs for now, but I don’t think China has the wherewithal to “hang in the fight” long enough to force the US to back down. Xi has to get the US to back down or he risks looking weak. Unfortunately, with two bullies on the playground that doesn’t seem likely.
Xi is trying to get other countries not to give in to/negotiate with the US on tariffs in solidarity with China (with some threats to try to back that position up). At the same time, China is really starting to hurt some of the other economies in Asia (where our best visibility is – we are less focused in the EU right now) by dumping a LOT of goods into those economies at ridiculous prices.
I think of it this way – all that stuff the Chinese were planning to sell the the US and can’t because of tariffs? they are dumping it in Vietnam, Thailand, etc. at prices that are killing the local suppliers.
So, if you were Vietnam (etc), would you side with Xi (and try to fight US tariffs) or put up your own tariffs/trade barriers to protect your domestic market from Chinese dumping, and try to make a deal with the US?
From the Chinese domestic press we are seeing a lot of ‘breast beating’ but nothing seems very practical as a way to finesse their way out of this mess. I think the big question is “what does trump really want from China”? – and I am not sure anyone knows that.
Thanks so much. Yeah, it’s going to be interesting to see how it all works out. I think they still have a lot of power in the world and it’s a little scary to think of that power in the hands of a desperate CCP. I guess we’ll know what the end game is when both sides declare victory and life goes on, but I do like the idea of bringing manufacturing and especially pharmaceuticals back to this country.
Thanks so much Westin 18. Would you elaborate more on the risk credit spread rising… in the 4th paragraph? Thanks
Bloomberg ~ Top C-Suite Stock Sellers Before Tariff Market Rout
1. Zuckerberg ~ Meta ~ $733,483, 827
2. Catz ~ Oracle ~ $705,455,414
3. Arora ~ Palo Alto Networks ~ $432,371,610
4. de Groen ~ Nutanix ~ $409,805,000
5. Davis ~ Axis Capital ~ $399,999,882
6. Cohen ~ Palantir ~ $337,239,916
7. Dimon ~ JPM ~ $233,776,513
8. Lefkowski ~ Tempus AI ~ $231,462,927
9. Sarandos ~ Netflix ~ $194,880,917
10. Boersma ~ Dutch Brothers ~ $189,611,197
Michael Howell:
“BTC can act like a real asset given its fixed supply. My main question over BTC is that its ‘value’ is its network. This requires expensive energy to exist. Gold does not.”
Me:
Yes! BTC’s value is its network. The fixed supply just puts BTC on the same playing field as other assets. A fixed supply is not a unique property.
Rock,
I am not sure posting so many links and blurbs to other stuff is really that great an idea. We all know how to get to other sites to read news, blogs, social media, etc. Yea this is the sandbox page but at what point does all of this become overwhelming?
This site appears to only have true value when it is lasered focus on a very defined scope. I can’t be the only one who has no desire to attempt to keep up with this and wade through so much stuff. This place will simply not scale to how it is getting used. Just my opinion. We have so much random stuff now days I am losing interest to even try to find relevant topics.
I really wish we had the ability to follow specific posters. For now, I manually track a few standout voices using my ISS reader and search for their names, but it’s a bit of an old-school process. Otherwise, I mainly look at the Reader alerts and highlight the unread ones, which, let’s be honest, is about as active as a buy-and-hold investor during a bull run. Hardly any fresh ideas, mostly just commentary on the wind, which seems to be blowing in every direction.
Despite the market’s best attempts at shaking things around, I’m still 100% invested. The past three weeks have been a steady game of legging down and rotating out of preferreds that moved the least into ones that have dropped a solid $3-4. It’s been quite the shuffle—like rearranging deck chairs on a ship that’s doing circles—but now I’ve got a sprawling collection of almost 200 preferreds and BBs spread across the board.
Fc-
I’m a macro guy and right now I can’t think of anything more important to my investments than macro directions and trends. I read a lot and post only the choicest, most relevant items here. I try to be clear and succinct so that my content is easy to read or SKIP at a glance.
Rocks,
You get around to reading a lot more different sites than I do. Macro I understand. Continue to post or not, up to you. I like reading some of it.
If you were expecting DOGE to have an impact, the numbers aren’t good, according to this NY Times chart.
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1913006079241314799
I think I saw an Elon comment suggesting that it wasn’t going as he had hoped/planned.
Eric Basmajian. Inescapable math. Isn’t reduced consumption on the administration’s check list?
“You can’t run big budget deficits, small trade deficits, and also maintain high consumption and high private investment.
We choose to run big trade deficits.
If you close the trade deficit without addressing the budget deficit, you must reduce consumption or private investment.”
Economist Lacy Hunt’s Hoisington Review for Q1 2025. Some here dislike Hunt. It would be helpful if those people focused on the content and not on Hunt. We’ve heard it before. Hunt’s analysis is always interesting and worth considering.
https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2025Q1NP.pdf
Hunt runs bond funds and IIRC the conclusion of his reviews is generally favorable for bonds. Here’s this quarter’s:
“Such an uncertain environment of tepid or negative economic growth will be conducive to a downward trajectory of long-term Treasury rates.”
In the interview I posted yesterday, Julian Brigden came to the opposite conclusion: long yields will trend up. Economist vs. market analyst. Whoever is right makes a big difference to investment decisions. Both could be right depending on the timeframe. Brigden was looking beyond a downturn, as I remember. Both see recession risk. Hunt is critical of the Fed for not cutting rates now, based on his favored data and historical precedent. Serious stuff.
Excerpt from John Mauldin’s weekly newsletter.
“My friend Mark Mills will be presenting at the SIC on energy, but he is also an expert on all sorts of government activity. In a recent paper at the Manhattan Institute he noted that “…complying with federal regulations now costs $29,100 for large companies and $50,100 for small firms—per employee, per year. Tomorrow’s large firms start as small ones, and over 90 percent of manufacturers are small firms that account for 40 percent of manufacturing employment.”
Since 2017, there have been 550 major rules costing over $100 million imposed on manufacturing businesses. The total cost of regulations is $80 billion a year. Mark argues with real data that regulations are far more destructive to jobs than technology. Technology in fact creates jobs.
Now think about how much regulation costs Chinese or other foreign manufacturers. And we wonder why US manufacturers have trouble competing! Some regulations are obviously needed, but bureaucrats are incentivized to increase regulations, as it increases their budgets and importance. Or creates opportunities when they go into the private sector. The exact opposite of what is needed. We will see what Trump can do.”
Regulation is one factor. Higher labor costs and expenses is a bigger factor. And we don’t even have the infrastucture in place. Competitive pricing is mostly just a sales pitch to justify other agendas.
Those compliance cost figures per employee are very suspect. Take a big company , Walmart for example, and you’d get “compliance costs” of $46 billion. That number is just absurd unless you allocate 100% of many expenses to “compliance costs” when the reality is only a small portion of a particular job or expense could be properly allocable to compliance.
I seriously doubt the figures someone pulled put of thin air to make a point.
Show me the line item on the income statement.
lt-
I’m glad you pointed that out. The numbers seemed too large to me. Do they include FICA and Medicare?
Those arguing for reduced regulation might be prone to exaggeration. Everything’s political.
Interesting, unverified. Significance? Chart at link.
“Tax cuts account for 38% of the national debt today, while recession responses and spending increases each caused 29%.”
https://x.com/steverattner/status/1910652766390804886
Today’s Daily Spark from Torsten Slok is a must read. Use the link on Saturday.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark
Here’s the text without the charts:
The US economy has been the envy of the world for decades—the biggest economy in the world with strong economic performance and open access for the rest of the world to consumers, investments, and capital markets.
The US is also the freest trading market in the world (2nd freest considering just financial friction/1st considering financial and non-financial barriers), and the administration is not wrong to want to adjust the terms of trade to position the US fairly and to insist on a level playing field for US consumers.
However, tariffs have been implemented in a way that has not been effective, and there is now a 90% chance of what can be called a Voluntary Trade Reset Recession (“VTRR”), see the first chart below.
The administration inherited an economy with strong growth, 4% unemployment, positive hiring, and a substantial tailwind from investments. US and international investors are building infrastructure, next-generation factories, and data centers. The Inflation Reduction Act increased capex, and the US was poised for a substantial increase due to energy supply additions, increased defense production, and deregulation.
But implementing extremely high tariffs overnight hurts many businesses; particularly small businesses because the tariff must be paid by the business when the imported goods arrive in the US. Small businesses that have for decades relied on a stable US system will have to adjust immediately and do not have the working capital to pay tariffs. Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy.
To make exceptions for large businesses that have the flexibility and resources to handle unforeseen expenses but not small businesses does not make sense. The challenges for small- and medium-sized enterprises are now a macro problem for the US economy, where small businesses account for more than 80% of US employment and capex, see the second and third chart below.
One way to quantify the coming negative impact on GDP is to compare the current tariff increase with the tariff increase observed during the trade war in 2018. During the 2018 trade war with China, the US average tariff rate increased from 2% to 3%, and studies show (here and here) that the impact on GDP was between 0.25% and 0.7%. Using the smallest of these estimates for the current tariff increase from 3% to 18% shows that the negative impact on GDP in 2025 could be almost 4 percentage points, not including additional non-linear effects because of the current increase in uncertainty for consumer spending decisions and business planning.
What can be done to avoid a recession? It is not too late to modify the course. For Mexico and Canada, there is a unique opportunity for the US to move first and get an agreement where labor, capital, and natural resources can be efficiently used in the North American economy. For any country that reduces tariffs to zero, the 10% tariff could stay in place, giving 180 days to negotiate non-tariff barriers, at which time, if agreed, the 10% is removed. For China, one approach could be to keep tariffs in place on autos, solar, and other strategic product groups. For all other products from China, tariffs can be gradually phased in over a period of, say, 18 or 24 months.
The bottom line: If the current level of tariffs continues, a sharp slowdown in the US economy is coming.
What happens to CEF preferreds where the CEF is diversified stocks if the market falls 50% in a year, then begins to fall more the next year?
Will the funds be redeeming some, or would they merely have higher credit risks?
I’m curious because I have not owned mine for very long and I’m just thinking through scenarios. What did happen in 07-08?
Lt no idea maybe someone else can provide some color.
I am only answering because our risk reward mentality changes over time and situation. I got burned in the Dot.com bubble so I hid in a Bond mutual fund in 2008 and didn’t come out of my bomb shelter until 2012. I didn’t lose any money, actually made money but not as much as if I had gotten back into the market sooner.
If they are required to stay under 200% coverage then they must do something to maintain that level. Partial redemption is one way to do it. There are other ways such as buying or selling off assets, issuing new commonstock or whatever, and probably some other techniques. Credit rating may go down but they are still required to follow the rules.
Martin, don’t you mean above 200% not under?
Here is a link from the Investment Company Institute to start your research. “Closed-End Funds and Their Use of Leverage – Frequently Asked Questions” https://www.ici.org/faqs/faqs_closed_end
Under the topic: “What are the regulatory limits on a fund’s use of leverage?” you will find …”for each $1.00 of preferred stock issued, the (closed end) fund must have $2.00 of assets at issuance and dividend declaration dates (commonly referred to as 50 percent leverage). ” As I read that, CEFs are required to meet leverage requirements at only two points in time, not continuously.
CEF Debt and preferreds are called “’40 Act leverage.” New to me, Fidelity says there is an ummm loophole called “Non-’40 Act leverage.” Worth a read. JMO. DYODD.
Leverage https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/closed-end-funds/leverage
Interview of Julian Brigden again. Excellent. Answered many of my questions and confirmed some of my views.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq6_7Xue4eg&t=1434s
For the first 1/3 of the video, YouTube kept interrupting with long commercials, no skip. I learned to click on the “The Monetary Matters Network” at the lower left, then click on the interview icon. That brought back the interview at roughly the same spot.
This was good. Here’s a summary:
Core Points
Understanding the Dollar and Its Influence: The video begins by emphasizing the importance of the US dollar in the global economy. A decline in the dollar can lead to profound economic implications, highlighting that financial markets are increasingly interconnected.
Julian Brigden’s Track Record: Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, is recognized for making accurate predictions about market trends relating to the US dollar, credit spreads, and stock prices. He suggested that the dollar’s decline would coincide with widening credit spreads and a falling stock market.
The Reflexive Cycle: Brigden explains the concept of a “reflexive cycle,” where rising equity prices in the US lead to increased consumption and spending. This cycle is driven by three economic effects: the wealth effect from rising stock prices, corporate behavior tied to stock performance, and the US’ tendency to import more, which deepens the current account deficit.
Policy Interventions: Policy changes under the Trump administration aim to lower the dollar value without weakening the underlying economy. Historical precedents demonstrate that attempts to devalue the dollar have been made before, leading to significant impacts on trade balances and foreign investments.
Market Predictions and Risk Assumptions: Brigden discusses market predictions, indicating that a weaker dollar is likely, and he anticipates further declines. He expresses concern for US domestic investors who have significantly invested in equities despite external warnings.
Investor Behavior: Bridging from the previous point, Brigden analyzes that US domestic investors are heavily invested in equities, which carries the risk of significant losses should the market continue to decline. Foreign investors, conversely, may engage in profit-taking, likely leading to further market declines.
Immediate Economic Outlook: The conversation shifts to imminent threats to economic stability such as rising inflation and potential recessionary pressures. Various indicators suggest that economic conditions may continue to worsen, challenging the US economy’s resilience.
Tariffs and Economic Consequences: The discussion turns to tariffs, explaining how current administration practices may lead to stagflation. The revenue generated from tariffs could hinder growth and investment while adversely affecting consumer spending.
Implications for Bonds and Stocks: Brigden converses about the bond market’s past behavior during market fluctuations. During periods of stock market downturns, bond prices typically rise; however, this time may be different as investors adjust to tariff-induced market uncertainty.
Long-term Structural Changes: Over a more extended period, Brigden posits systemic shifts are inevitable as the US transitions from a highly financialized economy to one that emphasizes more domestic production and consumption.
Key Conclusions
Dollar Dynamics are Key: The dollar’s strength or weakness directly affects the stability of global markets, necessitating attention to its fluctuations in financial analysis. As the dollar declines, it could lead not only to capital flight from US assets but also impacts the purchasing power of US consumers.
Economic Transition Indicator: The current administration’s policies indicate a shift towards re-industrialization and away from a consumption-led growth model. This transition could have necessary long-term benefits but short-term pain, especially for equity markets.
Investor Sentiment: There exists a notable disconnect between domestic investor sentiment and market realities. Overexposure to equities may leave these investors vulnerable to sharp corrections as external factors shift, particularly with riskier positions.
Urgency in Market Response: There is an urgency for investors to reassess and possibly recalibrate their portfolios in anticipation of upcoming market volatility. Heightened market conditions suggest that a thorough analysis of asset classes is more crucial than ever.
Uncertain Economic Growth: Despite projections of increased employment and consumption, the potential for economic stagnation or recession could counteract any advantages from tariff revenues. It is imperative to closely monitor foundational economic indicators to avoid being caught off guard.
Tariffs as a Double-Edged Sword: While tariffs serve as a tool for adjusting trade balances, the risk of creating a stagflationary environment where inflation rises, and economic growth stalls cannot be ignored. Thus, a careful evaluation of their long-term efficacy is required.
International Capital Flows: The recalibration of capital flows between the US and foreign markets indicates that as investors withdraw from US equities, the associated shifts could result in a more bearish outlook for the US market, necessitating heightened vigilance.
Long-term Bearish Sentiment on Treasuries: Long-term forecasts suggest bond yields will rise. This trend will persist unless there is a coordinated response from global central banks. As such, institutional investors need to adjust their strategies with this outlook in mind.
Gold as a Safe Haven: With growing financial uncertainties, gold is posited as a favorable investment. It presents an avenue for wealth preservation through times of economic instability, even as current market movements may reflect shorter-term volatility.
Need for Strategic Planning: Investors should adopt a long-term strategic planning mindset focused on macroeconomic indicators and potential shifts. It is essential to stay informed and adaptable as these evolving economic conditions will impact performance across asset classes.
Important Details
Research Service Discount: Monetary Matters listeners have the opportunity to access Julian Brigden’s research service, Macro Capture, with a 10% discount by using the code MM10 for annually and MM10Q for quarterly memberships.
Tariff Rates: Specific tariff rates were highlighted, with China facing over 125% tariffs and reciprocal tariffs for other countries starting at 10%. These rates signal an immediate tactical approach by the US to reshape trade relations.
Reflexive Cycle Explained: Brigden elucidates how financial dynamics create a cycle where asset purchasing influences economic fundamentals, thus establishing a relationship between rising stock prices, consumption patterns, and dollar strength.
Investor Behavior in the Face of Fluctuation: There has been a notable trend of US domestic investors ‘buying the dip’ in equities. This pattern could be detrimental if the anticipated market corrections do occur, potentially exacerbating losses further.
Impact of Foreign Investment on US Markets: Foreign investors have historically benefitted from US equities through currency gains. A potential decline in the dollar may lead to considerable changes in foreign investment behavior, leading to significant shifts in the markets.
Long-term Structural Adjustments: The current administration is seen as pursuing a radical rebalancing of the economy, targeting improvements in domestic industry. The implications of these changes may be substantial, calling for a thorough consideration of policy effects.
Budgets and Revenue: The administration has pinned a significant revenue expectation from tariffs, estimating a potential $2 trillion over ten years, suggesting that this revenue could play a pivotal role in managing budget deficits.
Market Correlation with Economic Indicators: There is considerable emphasis on monitoring labor market performance and economic metrics in light of potential recessionary signals, especially for the labor market which historically shows lagged responses to downturns.
Behavior of Central Bank Policies: The discussions surrounding the Federal Reserve center on its approach to interest rates in light of inflation and recession risks. The importance of maintaining stability in interest rates and overall market confidence is highlighted.
Monitoring International Markets: Brigden encourages vigilance around foreign markets, indicating that strategies should adjust in anticipation of broader global economic trends as capital flows and investment behaviors shift.
Jim-
Thanks! Really well done.
Jim, Thanks for posting. The one of many hidden dangers is this is a long term change in the economy. To achieve this is going to require large capital expenditures that may not appeal to businesses with the unknowns of a stable economy and demand.
The effort to devalue the dollar at the same time going to higher cost domestic production means it will cost consumers and businesses more of their dollars to buy something produced here. This will cause less demand unless people have more income to spend which again is inflationary.
The main advantage overseas markets have is the cheaper labor.
This brings up the dreaded specter of falling wages which may only happen if people are forced to work for less money because jobs are scarcer. This would be one way to have less inflation if we had a bad crash in the economy.
This is one way the drop in equities could happen that Brigden is talking about.
Should there be concern for California/NJ/PA/NYs Munis due to Rep Nancy Mace(R, SC) trying to push a “No Tax Breaks for Sanctuary Cities Act” (H.R. 1879)? The tries to take away tax exempt status for any state which has sanctuary jurisdictions.
https://www.reddit.com/r/bonds/comments/1k1uo53/hr_1879_a_potential_financial_tsunami_for/
I own enough underwater munis already.
She is not even on the House Financial Services Committee. The committee chair, French Hill, is said to favor the muni exemptions. How can she be of concern? Bills come from the committee. What is important are the committees and their members. It is difficult to overcome a chairperson on these committees. Maxine Waters is the ranking member, she also supports muni exemptions. One also needs to understand the Senate committees and the conference process. Especially if one is interested in munis.
Normally I would not take this seriously. But these are wild and abnormal times. French Hill was chosen to support the pro crypto agenda and beholden. This act punishes the blue states. If the president wants to strong arm support, he can.
No.
Here is the link to the Bill.
It was referred over a month ago to Ways and Means. Financial services has nothing to do with it.
Steube is one of the co-sponsors and is on the Ways and Means Committee. If it had any chance of passing, it would have had mark-up hearings by now.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1879/text
Committee hearings can be viewed here:
https://democrats-waysandmeans.house.gov/legislation/hearings/all
You would think that tax legislation would be top of the list of stuff to have hearings on, but crickets…
Could it become law at some point?
Possibly, but HIGHLY unlikely. Tax legislation that can pass W&M is subject to a markup usually pretty quickly after introduction.
I haven’t read this article yet; perhaps it’s good.
“This is called ‘capital flight'”
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-called-capital-flight
What I find interesting is the fourth chart comparing the dollar index to the 10-year treasury yield. It would be better if the chart covered more than two years. Weaker economies with more uncertainty pay higher yields on their currencies compared to stronger economies. It looks like the market gave the dollar a downgrade. What’s your take?
So, what happens if trump is able to fire Powell and install someone sympathetic to his wishes?
Do we see rates go back to ZIRP, or a significant lowering of rates in a very short period of time? This might actually help if we can refinance the US debt at lower rates. But what about the unintended consequences to markets and the economy? Obviously, we can’t foresee all those until the pieces are put into motion.
Do we watch as inflation roars back with cheap money?
Do we watch the debt soar into a parabolic curve? As a side note, if we weren’t already $36T in the hole, then servicing our debt wouldn’t be such an issue. It’s not just the refinancing of the old debt that is a problem. It’s how much more is trump going to add to it? Last time, he added $8T……. If we are going to lower rates, then we should also focus on lowering the debt.
What if any of this causes us to lose another notch on our US government credit rating?
It’s probably too late for many of us to do major changes. As I’ve discovered in my own circumstance, it’s a years long process to reposition a portfolio. While I’ve been working on it for a few years now, I still have a long ways to go before I can sit back and relax and not worry about daily fluctuations, or which political party is in power.
Mark-
The FOMC votes on rate changes. The chair has a lot of influence but is only one vote.
Mark
What would happen if Powell got fired and replaced with a loyalist?
Think Credit Risk Spread.
If uncertainty rises, the risk spread rises.
If Powell is fired and replaced with a loyalist
IMHO
Long-term rates will rise
Substantially
The new US port fees / shipping rates (taxes, docking fees, whatever) are out. The fees are effective in October, They are complicated. (40+ pages of complicated.) You can find them on line. This is how see it:
— Rates are less than the large per-stop, flat fees originally proposed. (~1.5 to 2.5 million per stop). There are carve outs that should benefit US grain exporters like CHS.
— Rates are calculated per ton or or per container. Ships that are both Chinese owned and Chinese built are targeted with the highest rates. Non-Chinese owned but Chinese-built ships are taxed at a lower rate, 32% of the Chinese rate. The rates will increase each year for the next 3 years.
— Even ships taxed at the lower rate could pay big dollars. (News item – “a ship loaded with 15,000 containers would be charged $1.8m”.)
— Of interest, there is a $150 fee on each car, wherever built, carried on an affected ship. This is on top of tariffs.
— Fees are expected on LNG carriers, effective in 3 years. TBA.
JMO. DYODD.
BearNJ – here are a couple of TradeWinds News articles on point:
+++++
‘Nowhere near as punitive’: Major shipowners digest new US port fees
Bulker, tanker and boxships unlikely to face significant disruption from US trade measures targeting Chinese shipyards
18 April 2025 9:01 GMT UPDATED 18 April 2025 11:35 GMT
By Harry Papachristou in Athens
US port fees on Chinese-built vessels appear less severe than initially feared — at least for large segments of the shipping industry, which are likely to absorb the costs, two senior shipping figures told TradeWinds in a first reaction.
“The measures are nowhere near as punitive as the initial indications,” said John Coustas, principal of US-listed container ship player Danaos.
“For container ships, they seem manageable — we do not, therefore, expect the presence of such levies to disrupt the container business,” he added.
Coustas’ comments come a few hours after the US administration unveiled its long-awaited measures against Chinese-built ships, which form part of Washington’s ongoing trade war with Beijing amid efforts to boost US shipbuilding.
Several shipping players had expressed concerns about the looming port fees.
They said the charges were an even bigger headache to them than tariffs, which directly impact cargo owners rather than shipowners.
As part of a series of measures announced by US trade representative Jamieson Greer, the US will begin imposing fees in approximately six months on every Chinese-built vessel approaching its ports, based on per net tonne or container count, whichever is higher.
The fees will start at $18 per net tonne and rise to $33 in 2028. The alternative is a fee of $120 per container, increasing to $250 in 2028.
Major Greek bulker owner Panos Laskaridis said at first glance, the measures looked more benign than US authorities first suggested.
“They’re milder than initially feared as far as Chinese-built ships are concerned that are not with Chinese owners,” the principal of Lavinia Corp told TradeWinds.
Assuming a large kamsarmax, capesize or newcastlemax carrying coal, Laskaridis estimated the port fee to about 5% or 6% of the cargo cost, at current prices.
“That’s not a disaster… cargo price fluctuations of that magnitude are not unusual,” he said.
A manager at a third, major US-listed company beat the same drum.
“The US administration seems to have heeded — at least to some degree — the concerns expressed by the industry,” the executive said.
This is reflected in the numerous expemptions set out in the text of the decision.
Vessels “arriving empty or in ballast” and “smaller vessels”, for example, are exempt.
“Small” is defined as “vessels with a capacity of equal to or less than: 4,000 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, 55,000 deadweight tons, or an individual bulk capacity of 80,000 deadweight tons”.
Voyages shorter than 2,000 nautical miles (3,700 km) are exempt, along with vessels owned by US companies engaged in certain specialised export trades, as well as those participating in subsidy programmes administered by the US Maritime Administration.
Another key element noted by the third, unnamed executive is a passage in the decision, according to which “the US trade representative has determined not to impose any fee based on fleet composition at this time”.
This means there is no risk of Japanese-built or South Korean-built vessels paying a price as well, if their owner or operator owns or manages Chinese-built vessels.
…
(Article continues …)
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/regulation/-nowhere-near-as-punitive-major-shipowners-digest-new-us-port-fees/2-1-1808887
‘A step in the wrong direction’: Liner group questions legality of US port fees
World Shipping Council says port fees may overstep authority of US trade representative
18 April 2025 16:13 GMT UPDATED 18 April 2025 16:13 GMT
By Eric Priante Martin in Miami
The World Shipping Council has questioned the legality of port fees announced by US President Donald Trump’s top trade ambassador and warned of the disproportionate impact on larger vessels that feed the US economy.
The group also complained that surprise fees on car carriers built outside China represent an “arbitrary” action.
…
Among its concerns, the group said the “fees appear to extend beyond the authority” that US trade law gives Greer’s office.
The Office of the US Trade Representative said on Thursday that the action Section 301 of the Trade Act authorises Greer to impose a number of fees and restrictions.
Applying fees to vessels already on the water does not help shipbuilding but risks harming American exporters at a time of economic strain, and they disrupt long-term investment planning, the World Shipping Council said.
…
(Article continues…)
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containers/-a-step-in-the-wrong-direction-liner-group-questions-legality-of-us-port-fees/2-1-1808925
BearNJ….. Sure glad I don’t work for the us Customs department collecting tariffs or the Port Authority collecting port fees…….. My life is complicated enough without the daily headaches of trying to figure what to charge / collect!
Three day weekend – time for reflection….
My investment banking career was in underwriting and syndication of leveraged loans. In our relatively small circle, I was renowned for my conservative (negative?) approach. Whereas my competitors were breezily optimistic (“Sure, we can do that!”), I generally was doubtful until the necessary building blocks for success had been identified. Some clients were turned off by my approach, others were impressed.
With the above in perspective, following is my personal investment outlook and current portfolio holdings. As in everything posted on this page, the intent is to assist my fellow investors with their own decisions.
Economic outlook 2025 & 2026:
Recession – Risk spread increasing by 200+ bps + – Upward pressure on long term US Treasury rates – Increased volatility in all markets leading to liquidity issues – Fed coming to the rescue…late – SPY capitulation in the 4,000 to 4,500 range.
As a result of the above outlook, my portfolio is as follows:
Bonds: 66% of portfolio, yield 5.2% unrealized gain/loss: +.05%,
Duration no longer than 2030, majority Treasury’s,
Largest non T holdings: XFLTPRA, EICB, ATCOL, CGBDL, NEWTZ
Prefs: 11% of portfolio, yield 7.2%, unrealized loss -.07%
Largest: ALLPRD, ETPRI, PCGPRC, SPNTPR, CHSCN
Sock Drawer: 18% of port, yield 5.8%, unrealized loss – 03%
Largest: ELV, ET, ENB, GIS, ARCC
My view is that the greatest opportunity for gain going forward will be in low P/E, high div common stocks in the core businesses- “Value stocks”
On downward volatility, I marginally add to Sock holdings.
Averaging down – low/no confidence I will capture capitulation “bottom”
Hedge: 6% of port, yield .08%, unrealized gain 9.7%
Largest: SH, GLD, GD, GGNPRE
Continued employment in my career choice required success. What I enjoyed most about my job was that everyone around me had their own opinion as to whether a deal was “good” or not. They were not the ones at risk – I was. If the deal syndicated and we received our large underwriting fee, I was a hero. If it did not ……… well……. “that’s one…….”
I retired when I wanted to, not before. At the end, I was 10-15 years older than my peers.
That is not to say that the above views are correct nor that you should look to them for your investment decisions. The marketplace is the sum of different opinions and outlooks. No one can predict the future with any degree of certainty.
Measure you own outlook against the above and measure your own results against it.
Westie I respect your lifetime of experiences and add your thoughts to my mix.
Overall you are conservative on what you want for yields and don’t want to be locked into a fixed investment for longer than 5 to 6 years. Not quite as conservative as Tim’s 1 to 2 yrs
For having a stormy outlook you still are optimistic about the future of common stocks and the potential for a rebound. ( the key is low debt and low P/E )
There is a lot of verbal discussion on this site.
Not as much follow up.
How about those of you with confidence in your convictions, tell us:
– What is your economic outlook?
– Investment strategy?
– Portfolio allocation?
– Yield?
– Duration?
– Capital gain/loss to date? (helpful if you add time period)
Won’t we all gain by seeing different views and allocations?
Great idea Westie:
– economic outlook: I have no clue. Have never known what the economy is going to do.
– Investment strategy: Income, then cap gains if possible. Buy and Sell in all market conditions.
– Portfolio allocation:
Stock (Equity CEF, ETFs, and Common) – 28%
Preferred Stock – 27%
IG Corporate/Agency Bonds – 25%
Baby Bonds/Term Preferred – 10%
US Treasuries/TIPS – 10%
– Yield: 6.2%
– Duration: 6.25
+1.8% YTD Return
Tariff/Treasury Tantrum drawdown reached -2.55% Return at Low.
– What is your economic outlook?
Same as Mr Pig… no clue. my belief is the markets tend to overreact, then self-correct.. a “triumph of the optimists” w a tactical bent. Keep equity / risk at low levels when valuations/spreads are expensive.. try to park that $ in “good enough” investments in the meantime.. then re-deploy as valuations become more attractive. This has included the illiquid utes, munis, prefs/credit that are likely to be called and have attractive enough YTC. When risk gets more attractive.. allocate more to junkier credit, all types but esp REITs and mREIT widgets. The focus is mostly due to my experience and comfort, not a belief that REITs are superior. I will also go boglehead and buy VT and chill at times, or at least try.
– Investment strategy?
See above. I’m also a massive pref flipper.. constantly looking for illogical dumps. This is probably 30% of my value add. It’s become more difficult lately w the Fidelity trading limits on low volume names.
Related to the above, I am a firm believer in relative value.. looking across the cap stack.. common, pref, bonds. Right now, I have a medium position in HPP notes w ~14% YTM.. more attractive than HPP-C when considering risk/reward.
And lastly.. for better or worse.. I will short stocks, or sell options, when I believe risk gets very skewed.. ie super frothy. This hurt last year and helped this year. This is mostly shorting hype names (eg quantum computing names) or expensive, like WMT or EAT earlier this yr. I don’t have much now… took my profits.. I do have a few $125 GME call options sold for $1.3, couldn’t resist..
– Portfolio allocation?
30% muni, increased lately as I can’t resist 5% yields for AA w 8+ yrs call protection
15% safe IG FI
15% safe prefs, think cobank, illiquid utes
25% mREIT common , this position has grown recently.. I esp like beaten down credit mREITs where I think the market is too punishing
30% risky prefs/bonds.. this used to be higher..
15% common stocks/ equity beta
I will also use moderate levels margin of tactically. IBKR charges ~5.5% currently and I get to write it off against income. I am never comfortable w margin, so I always plan to eliminate it. My risk is that the market has a sustained bear market.
And I still have a slug of MSEX sitting in broadridge, but I currently have a short on that.
– Yield? Gonna guess around 8%
– Duration? Gonna guess around 7.. have some super long duration issues, and others w zero rate duration but high spread duration.
– Capital gain/loss to date? (helpful if you add time period) positive, thank goodness!
Maine I have not sat down and done a compilation yet, but I think it’s a good exercise Westie has proposed.
One thing I found interesting on your post is the mix of risk and safety you do.
I actually had the same idea regarding bonds of Reit’s and started looking but with Fidelity’s 50k minimum I figured I was wasting my time except for information gathering.
I have an interest in Reit’s and thought that their bonds would have less risk than their preferred’s so I started looking.
One thing for those who might be considering investing in a company’s preferred for the risk reward is see if they have outstanding bonds. See how well the bonds are holding up.
I have an interest in KIM and REXR preferred and their bonds have been holding up well, not a lot of trades and still under 5% yield which means investors have confidence in these companies. Next risk reward up is the preferred then the common.
Westie you seem to have touched on several sectors of the market to hold commons in. I see healthcare and insurance, energy, food/ consumer staples and ARCC which I guess is private equity and investment. The one thing I think that is missing is a military defense stock.
I don’t have any prognostic predictions short term. But it’s obvious that domestic on shoring of ship building, steel plants and related business has increased the possibility of a major war within the next 4 years at least that is my feelings.
Westie-
Regarding economic outlook and SPX low…
My crude guess: Tariffs as they stand will cause damage. I agree with John Mauldin that the window to back off is short, maybe two months, otherwise recession risk is elevated even higher.
Outcome 1, backing off on tariffs: The SPX tests the current low. Target guess 4614. And that’s it, a deep correction, not a crash. Much of the damage reversed to an extent, some not. Licking wounds. No recession. Treasury yields somewhat lower. Growth slower, inflation contained.
Outcome 2, recession: A wide range of possibilities with unpredictable elements. SPX possibly to lower channel line. Much wider spreads. Rate cuts.
If #1, buy good deals as they show up. Modest cash reserve.
If #2, sit on hands. Large cash reserve.
I haven’t gotten around to creating a spreadsheet summary page that breaks down my portfolio by asset type. Of the invested portion: It’s roughly 2/3 IG senior CUSIPs with YOC 6% and 1/3 $25 stocks with YOC 7.1%. I didn’t plan it that way; it evolved. My SGOV reserve has dwindled to 4% but grows with dividends received. The much bigger “cash equivalent” is in WTFCP/M until July 15, although I would sell early if I needed to.
Rocks
Like your strategy
BUT
On Monday, which do you use if opportunities arise : Outcome #1 or #2
Westie-
There could be a #3 or #4, stagflation or whatever.
Right now I’m trying really hard not to buy anything, even 2027 maturities with YTM close to 10% or near-term YTM of 7%. If the market needs to go #2, it could take a big dump. I want to wait.
I’m looking really hard at PFFA, CY 10.1%. I’d be much better off if I’d just bought PFFA at the Oct 2023 low instead of the motley collection of preferreds and BBs I own now.
Pros: high levered yield, no individual stock risk, no risk of dividend stopping, stable dividend, liquid, trades near NAV, appears to be well-managed and is not a tracker, possibility of MtM gain, time efficient for investor
Cons: risk of a dividend cut, risk of MtM loss, risks overlooked by or unknown to me.
The price of PFFA will go up and down. As a B&H investor looking for cash flow, I don’t mind the volatility. PFFA goes down, I buy more. Folks who trade for cap gains won’t like this at all.
When I read a post on III, I try to remember what the person’s trading style is because it affects their reasoning. Someone says “Buy AAPL” and you buy it only to be at a loss a year later. Then you find out the person with the buy reco sold a week later at a profit. I always appreciate when some states their reason for a buy or sell.
Not much cash reserves here. All I did was switch a few 9%ers to 6%ers with less volatility and risk. I look forward to trading any kind of market whatever happens.
Westie-
Just to clarify for readers-
I think 3 of those listed might have been typos:
ALL-D (called 6 yrs ago) – maybe ALL-B?
SPNTPR – maybe pr-B?
GGNPR ( no such) ‘B’ is the only one.
Enjoyed your take-thanks.
Good catches, Gary
Shouldabin:
ALLPRB
SPNTR
GGNPRB
Worse, my most successful single top five holding is GDX, not GD, in Hedge.
Up 52%
what a great post, thanks much
I have shifted my investment thesis. Under the last administration (2020-2024), I was concerned about the swings in the T-Bill market. In my opinion, the world’s safe haven, the US treasury, should not have swings of 15% to 20% in short periods of time. Things are the same in 2025 (perhaps even worse with tariffs) and look to be the new norm.
On this board, the issue seems to be that we are spending too much or we are cutting taxes too much. That is an opinion for which much debate takes place.
Here is a fact that we should all agree upon. The deficit is way too large and growing every single year. We cannot afford to service our debt, particularly if interest rates stay where they are. Some are advocating that the Fed cut rates. Sorry, that does not impact the long end of the curve, where the bigger problems seem to be developing. The long end is where the preferred investors can get hurt the most. Even if Fed rate cuts lowered the longer-term interest rates, it does not solve the problem as long as the deficit keeps getting larger. At best, it delays the problem.
I have seen enough. It is a 5-year pattern; the long end of the curve is too concerning to ignore. Tim, has a solution and has many term preferreds. As an investor who is focused on investment-grade rated issues (from Moody’s and SP) that doesn’t work for me. My solution is floating rate or fixed rate reset issues. Sure, on the fixed rate reset issues, I have to wait 5 years for a reset, but it happens at some point. Presently, right now, I am at 70% “inflation hedged” which includes lots of money market funds (SGOV). The minimum coupon, I would consider is 6.5% – 7% (the 10 year TBILL + 2%).
Yes, there are more political posts on this site. Bur some who complain, offer little investment insight and seem to be here waiting for a political post to rail against. Are they any less political? Do they want to talk less about politics than those advocating for a political view? Just something to consider.
I would sure rather hear about people’s investment thesis and how they are positioning in the market, as well as opportunities they are finding.
Thanks Steve A, I think very well worded and thought provoking. I have many of the same thoughts. Do you ever consider IG corporate bonds or are you strictly in preferreds and baby bonds.
To fit my investing thesis, it needs to be a fixed-rate reset. I am finding almost all of this market to be in preferred or junior subordinated issues. But, yes I would invest in corporates if they offer such terms. I own 13 IG $100 issues that only trade on the bond market.
Steve,
The strategy seems fine , except I ask “What happens if rates soar?”
Would many of the issuers would not be able to refi the preferred or even continue paying much higher rates?
I also would look at the index being used. I definitely do not want a margin that’s tied to a short-term rate. The term premium between short -term paper and even the five- year treasury constant could be very large since (from memory) 51% of the debt is financed for 1 year or less. The fed has historically controlled the short term rate, but not necessarily the long -term rate. Granted, the Fed COULD use unlimited QE to control the long end, but I question whether the 24 primary dealers would want to continue having to bid for their proportionate share of notes and bonds if the QE controlled rate was below the rate they could earn elsewhere in private credit.
The dealers obviously did bid when QE was a thing previously, but there was at least low inflation justifying fed purchases. If they do it merely at behest on pols I’m not sure what would happen. They have to be able to sell the debt to customers.
If rates soar. SGOV should do okay. Floating rates will do fine. Fixed rate resets will drop significantly in value until they close to the reset date. Then, they should go back closer to PAR (so 4 years of “paper losses” may well occur).
Steve, I have a lot of fixed rate resets kinda like insurance. Like the SPNT-PB, UMBFP. I understand Tim’s point of view going with short term resets and with a high possibility they will get called then you redeploy the money at that time. I also have a few resets out to 20 & 30 but not that many.
Then I have a mix of lower yielding preferred like CNTHO that on cost basis are yielding about 6.2% or barely at your minimum of T bill + 2
I had bought some of these lower yields around when the Fed started cutting rates and it was thought there would be capital gains plus a decent income. That plan changed a little when Fidelity who used to let you buy and sell with no limitations changed their policy. I’m used to being able to liquidate a position if I want to move my money and their restrictions caused me to sell out of some of my positions. What had been a normal percentage of my accounts turned into looking like I was overweight so I have sold out of several illiquids.
This is reminding me of the Carter and Reagan era. I didn’t have much extra cash then but seeing stocks like utilities paying double digits I bought a few. Was a time when situations were different for different people. I was young and had a job and I owed nothing and didn’t spend much so I was better off than people who owed money, had a home and were losing their jobs.
Then I joined the merry-go-round, I saved up enough to buy a new truck and my first house. I had to sell those stocks to buy the house.
Since then I wished I could have kept those stocks.
This time around it’s different, but it still seems similar. I would say it can’t hurt to have a % of higher paying bonds and stocks in the portfolio that are long term and just ride out the up and down swings. For my age that might be only 10 or 20 yrs. Not sure something like MGR fits since it’s not a utility but it might.
Steve-
When the Fed cut rates 50bp in Sep 2024, the 10-year treasury yield reversed to an uptrend, a surprise to many.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/T4tN99L8/
Predicting how long yields will respond to rate cuts has become difficult.
The Mad King has caused so much chaos and fear I no longer even care to invest in anything. I just keep adding cash into MM from dividends.
but this not worth it . Mental health matters.
Call me a
With three days off from the market, I am going to posit a thought that some will see as political, but I’m stating this thought more to get feedback about the logic.
A number of smart people say that the recent decline in markets, which they acknowledge follows presidential action, is acceptable because we will end up better in the long run.
My thought: If you believe the above statement, isn’t it a necessary supposition that President Trump is smarter/wiser/more correct (you choose which), than the combined judgments of investors?
lt-
What is the “combined judgments of investors” as you read it?
By “Combined judgment of investors” I mean the prices expressed by the market.
LT – I think any casual market observer should know that markets are not infallible. There are countless historical examples of markets misjudging policy, mispricing assets, or simply overreacting.
In the early 2000s, do you believe that the prices of tech stocks expressed by the market demonstrated the wisdom of the combined judgments of investors? How about oil prices going negative in April 2020?
I think the market thought that MBS and CDOs were safe in 2006 based on market pricing. What’s the market cap of fartcoin again?
Your logic here is deeply flawed.
Thank you for the comment
lt, I don’t know if we end up better but we may end up less bad than if he did nothing. I’m somewhat pessimistic about our longterm economic future either way. Keeps me from getting too manic in my investing.
There’s a lot we don’t know about what’s really going on behind the scenes. . So I just soldier on. Try to downplay theories and bias focus more on playing the numbers and patterns, that’s what works for me.
Added to pummeled F-D (Ford long dated Baby). Lately baby stands for ‘thrown out with the bathwater’. 7.68% for BBB- issue seems a little off kilter. Everybody hates Ford. I don’t.
Loved my old 1986 Ford Bronco II. 250k miles in 22 years. Looked for Ford replacements in 2009 when I traded it in on Cash for Clunkers (pending maintenance costs would have been very expensive), but couldn’t find a Ford replacement that I liked.
good comment.. F-D/VCLT pair trading near since inception low in august 2022 set december 2022..good article on S/A titled FORD BONDS OFFER AN ATTRACTIVE PAIR TRADE OPPORTUNITY by Arbitrage Trader ..although it references F-B they are virtually the same
Not sure if it’s hate of Ford or just a dislike of 6.5% coupon long dated maturity with BBB- rating in today’s rate environment and economic turmoil. ARGD is similar coupon/rating with long dated maturity, $20.14 (8%) today vs F-D at $20.96 (7.7%). And BPYPP 6.5% coupon perpetual is $14.10 (11.7%). Kudos to F for not taking the BK route back in 2008.
Want to see a hated issue? BWNB, 6.5% coupon that matures end of 2026. Trading at $16.47 (almost 10%). Obvious concerns if that makes it across the finish line.
good comment.. excellent article on BPY on S/A by Trapping Value titled
BPY Preferreds:A Backdoor Play on Brookfield Real Estate?
BWNB’s YTM = 34%+ Now that’s obvious concern…….
2062 is a long time for something that can dramatically change. Its not a long dated utility bond.
legend, certainly understand that.
Further researching tonight, kinda looks fairly priced if one considers its comparison to the 30Yr. Its not exact but its close enough to indicate market is looking for 30Yr + 290 basis points for this BBB- issue. That’s inline I think with maybe one might expect. Not as good a deal as I imagined, research I should have done yesterday, lol, but I’m still ok with it.
FL Guy, I took a look at BWNB, yikes, no thanks
Pig, It’s a fast moving market so it’s easy to make assumptions which become dated quickly! I’ve made that mistake many times lately. 345370BS8 might be a decent comp for F-D. It last traded at 7.9%; it’s non-callable so seems slightly more attractive.
https://www.finra.org/finra-data/fixed-income/bond?symbol=F.GQ&bondType=CA
I love having access to the 1,000 issues on IBKR for this type of market. I got 10 of the T 2095 non-call 7% issue (079867ap2) for 1.01 on 4/11. I liked other names better but just thought it would be “cool” to have an ~7% AT&T annuity. I have also been dumpster diving w the Ally/Gm instl prefs.. including the Ally FtR at prices ranging from 88 to 94. It pays 4.7% through May 15, 2026; thereafter resetting every 5 years at the 5-year treasury rate + 3.868%
https://www.ally.com/about/investor/capital-securities/
Maine, Thanks for those suggestions, already been put on my watchlist. Definitely can see a scenario where my IRA’s get split up with some portion at IBKR. Schwab is very frustrating from the bond side.
I am thinking of doing the same thing
SteveA you mentioned you have 13 bonds of 1000.00 value that have reset feature. I think Maine has mentioned he is also into resets. I have thought about IBKR and have a silly question. How safe are they? I am not happy with Fidelity’s bond offerings and if I am interested in something else they set a 50k barrier.
There has been discussion here and other sites about the ballooning of world debt. The mention of China and India and Canada and the EU all lowering their benchmark rates then with China selling 50 yrs Treasuries. Nothing we can do anything about so why should I worry? Reminds me of the story I read that millinials or was it Gen Z that are stressing out over all the news coming in on the media they listen.
But this cycle of lowering rates and increasing debt should reach critical mass at some point I would think?
I have a very different view of foreign countries selling US T-bills. I do not think they will. Why take a loss? However, our T-BIll rates will still be hurt. Why? The foreign countries will be hurt by the tarriffs. They will need to worry about and stimulate their own economies. It only makes sense that they will not be buying as many T-Bills. Less demand means higher rates. Plus, given the political environment in the US, why would foreigners not diversify future purchases in countries like Canada, Germany, or Japan? Less bond purchases via diversification means higher rates also. So, my thesis is foriegners do not have to sell to cause our bond prices to rise. Our actions, will result in less demand for T-Bills. Increasing supply due to our deficits with less demand. Bad News.
Yes, I am concerned about IBKR also. That is why I have no moved to them yet.
Steve, re comments on future non-US demand for Tsys …. and the stagflation topic … would Current Floaters ( or nearby , 6 mos ~ 18 mos ahead ) work well in a short maty curve being a defensive reset area.
Have a reasonable amount of Current Floaters resetting every three mos. and a few old time TruPs with current resets. Thanks to all the ” off-day” posters.
I would current floaters should work well, if rates go up. Of course, if rates go down, they would not work so well. So, if your thesis is a recession, that may not work as well. Part of the reason I like the fixed rate reset. But of course, at reset time, they could not be attractive, if rates are down.
Of course, this is not investing advice. Just my view of the world.
Transferring into IBKR is super easy. I have done two partial transfers from my fidelity account, not full account transfers. This can all be done on the IBKR website.. just specify which securities or cash you want transferred, provide an account statement.. and they show up the next day!
How safe is IBKR?
I had this same question before I transferred. This is how I think about it now.
All the normal insurance found elsewhere, SIPC etc
Public company, $67B market cap
One of the fastest growing brokerages… esp as retail discovers it .
I assume it’s the top brokerage for small/medium institutional investment managers. It’s very popular for DIY retail types, esp those w account nuances… electronic access to fixed income, broad access to international markets, margin users
I wish I invested in their stock when I opened my account in 2016!!
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/about/presentations-and-events.php
Thanks for the link Maine
Recently, I posted a monthly log chart of SPX with parallel channel lines drawn that define the trend and capture almost all of the price movement from the 2009 low. Here’s an update.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/matPZzi8/
The recent price low touched the midline in a much shorter time than I expected. Based on that touch, you could conclude that the correction is over. Looking at the historical examples, I see that the first midline touch in 2011 was similarly quick, but followed by two more touches in the next two months. In fact, two or more touches is true for all of the corrections.
My takeaway: Continued patience is warranted.
Thanks Rocks
R2S, Thanks for the SPX chart comment, great backdrop for all this chaos we are dealing with. Your recent posting was only one of the many fine ideas you put on our site.
Suggestion. How about we ask posters to voluntarily limit their posts to one per day for the next 30 days unless it is a true reader-initiated alert?
We can make a collective judgment if we like it better.
Steve, maybe right but I see 2 posts by you.. I like reading about peoples experiences in life just because, like Yield Hunter’s mention his observation about he noticed that if you are in a situation that the government want what you’d have they will take it. In a way it has influenced who he is. BTY, the town where I live now wanted me to “give” them part of my property for a road widening. We do have laws and I negotiated with them right up to the scheduled start then was threatened with eminent domain. In a lot of ways it was worth it, in others it was not. It took the joy out of living here.
I don’t know what to believe when I read the news, except when a lot of sources are saying the same thing I tend to think it has to be true. A man who doesn’t believe in the rule of law and that it doesn’t apply to him except when he wants it to was put in charge. When a person like that threatens a college that has been around 388 years longer even than this place has been a country it starts to scare me
dream on.. these online blogs have taken place of neighborhood coffee shops
To begin, thanks to both Gridbird and 2whiteroses who have educated me.
It’s not the political content or the frequency of posting that diminishes this website, rather it’s the narcissistic and self-absorbed nature of so many comments.
DYODD.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/16/foreign-investors-massively-bought-us-treasury-securities-in-february-china-japan-canada-euro-area-uk-financial-centers-taiwan-india-even-brazil/
Well, that was then.
SteveA,
Are people actually donating money to this guy, who then abuses them in the comments?
Maybe he was having a bad day in the responses I read, but it seemed completely unwarranted.