I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
Here are the total returns for 5 etfs that I track since May 28:
PFFA 13.3%
SPY 13.0%
QQQ 12.2%
IBIT 11.9%
TLT 2.0%
plus my 19 big caps at $5 each
slices 15.2%
I win!
I’m thinking Wesbanco WSBCP 6.75% coupon, FRR of 5yr +6.557% on 11/15/25 will get called, but hope I’m wrong.
Opinions appreciated. Holding some- if nothing else, seems good to park $.
.I bot wsbcp at 24.91 as the wsbcp/sjnk pair has outperformed over the last year and is trading near 2 sigma cheap (was 2 sigma rich in august)..am expecting it to be called
DJT down after hours now makes my premonition mentioned earlier today of a $10 down day accurate.
I immediately contacted my CPA to inquire if I could deduct opportunity losses!
Actually I texted him and he texted back: “LT, you can deduct anything you want…..but that does not make it deductible!”
I love that we have the same sense of humor .
Wanna bet Trump starts selling soon?
I’m assuming this move down is shorting ahead of a secondary, which will be used to cover the short. If this is the case, Rule 105M is applicable. That rule prohibits covering a short with secondary offering stock if the short occurred less than 5 days before the offering. I’ll look for a secondary about a week to 10 days from now. It would make sense, and little about this stock does. ( as a note I believe there’s a shorter alternative period available under 105m but counsel always told me to make it 5 days)
I’m not a buyer of the secondary.
I’ll take the other side of that – no DJT selling and no offering in the next two weeks. They could raise over $100M just by calling the outstanding warrants, which have a short call feature and the stock is well over that $18 knock-out price.
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/114036124045260/1?cik=1849635&hl=138700:138736&hl_id=ejwp_ji-zg
Plus they raised $300M just recently via ATM sales of the stock during just Q3.
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/114036124045260/1?cik=1849635&hl=340585:340673&hl_id=e1cpyol–x
DJT might have a worthless business, but they have over $600M in net cash, no material liabilities, and at 4% interest that almost covers their money losing screwing around with their social media business. It’s a meme stock cash shell ala GME, and when they raise another $1-2B in stock sales, they’ll even be profitable off the interest like Gamestop is.
Plus Trump can sell tax deferred once he’s in office, which is a much better deal than taking a 50% tax hit now. He said he wasn’t selling, and given the math on waiting til he is officially President, I believe him.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/1043
Xerty,
Thank you so much.
I verbally speculate on things quite a bit here, and my opinion was not something on which I’d take action, merely one possibility given price action.
After reading your link I am in agreement with you.
Every SPAC I’ve traded forced conversion of the warrants when it was able to do so…except DJT. ( could have missed a few. ). Do you know how many warrants are left?
“It’s a meme stock cash shell ala GME, and when they raise another $1-2B in stock sales, they’ll even be profitable off the interest like Gamestop is.”
That quote is very true.
I last actively traded SPACs in 2021 when there was ridiculous retail interest
Thanks again!!
10-year treasury yield chart 1947-today
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JxcSyxBu/
Laughably, when I brought up the chart, I’d hoped to see where the yield “normally” sits. There is no normal. You might say there’s a very long inflation/disinflation cycle that guides the yield.
FOMC decision as expected, 25bps cut. IRX (13-week t-bill yield index) correctly predicted three cuts. The yield today is about 1/3 of the way toward another cut, so no expectation yet of a cut at the Dec 18 meeting.
Nov-Dec post-election is historically a strong period for the stock market. My analogy: hot air balloon ride, and there’s no shortage of hot air.
*Requesting help figuring out first dividend payment amount. *
EIIA – Recently issued preferred.
From Prospectus
“Dividend Periods. The first Dividend Period…will commence on the Date of Original Issue and will end on, but exclude, November 29, 2024…With respect to the first Dividend Period, dividends of the Series A Term Preferred Shares offered pursuant to this prospectus will be paid on November 29, 2024 to holders of record of such Series A Term Preferred Shares as their names appear on our registration books at the close of business on November 12, 2024.”
They just declared regular distributions of $0.169271 for Jan/Feb/March that follow the pattern of record /pay dates of ~12/Last Bus Day.
I’m trying to figure out what the “Date of original issue” is so I can estimate the amount of the first dividend to see if it’ll be more or less than the standard monthly. Any thoughts on how to figure this out? I bought first shares on 10/11/24, which makes me think it’ll be a normal div.
mrinprophet,
Original Issue Date = 10/17/2024.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1896036/000110465924107137/tm2425868d1_fwp.htm
From what I’ve seen, I think the 1st dividend period on new issues begins accruing on the Original Issue Date (OID) and the OID is the settle date for the shares bought on the IPO date.
In this case, the IPO date (“Trade Date”) was Oct 9 and the settle date (original issue date) was Oct 17 (t + 5).
Looks like the 1st div will be a little more than a regular monthly amount:
“The initial dividend period for the Series A Term Preferred Shares will be the period from October 17, 2024, to, but excluding, November 29, 2024.”
re DJT:
for the first time in a long time there’s a lot of stock available to short, so shorts are doing what shorts do.
IB is charging 48% to locate this, while Fidelity is at 13%.
I threw in my hat to short some shares at 31. Does it matter I had a premonition last night that the stock would be down $10 today?
I’m about to take the $1 profit so it’s bound to go lower.
The borrow fee is too high to short. Also, bear in mind that your broker can force you to cover if shares become unavailable to borrow. That’s most likely to happen during a short squeeze.
My preferred way of playing it was more conservative by shorting OTM calls. Back when DJT was at $50+ before the election, I was able to short Dec $80 calls for an avg price of $9.50. I looked at adding to that yesterday but despite the initial big bump in DJT, those calls were trading too low to make it worthwhile.
I did the same with the 115 call.
But, there were 700,000 shares available this morning and I don’t have to pay anything at IB or Fidelity unless I am short overnight. Schwab is a scam, charging you locate fees for entering the order!
anyway, I covered (I have to pay some bills and shorting call options is how the used car salesman at Hyundai told me he paid for his kids’ college education. Those are 2 different thoughts)
BTW the guy was doing covered writes , and told me he’d never been exercised in all the years he’d done that, and that writing calls on stock you own is free money. Like virtually everyone with whom I’ve discussed the “covered write” strategy, he did not understand that the combined position of long stock/ short call is equivalent to the outright sale of a naked put…which he said he’d never do and didn’t understand why I kept saying that’s what he was doing already. Tangentially, even FINRA seems confused on the subject, asserting in their CE module that covered writes are conservative but selling naked puts is aggressive. My letters to them went unanswered.
and djt is down more ofc
Of course they are economically equivalent, but then there’s risk management. If the puts are 100% cash secured, there is no difference in risk, but it can be hard to stick to that. The covered call strategy removes the temptation.
Discussion question: Why are covered call ETFs so much more popular than short put ETFs?
Thanks , David . I had to look up what you meant by “cash -secured.”
David, it’s easier to get approved for covered calls than for other option trades. Just saying!
That’s one dedicated car salesman !
Playing options… keep your day job.
Tex-
Thanks for your excellent list of 5-year reset stocks. Here are some additions and corrections.
Add these:
SPNT-B
WCC-A
Correct reset dates:
JXN-A 3/30/28
WSBCP 11/15/25
APOS 12/15/28
RZC 10/15/27
good list..I bot wsbcp at 24.91 as the wsbcp/sjnk pair has outperformed over the last year and is trading near 2 sigma cheap (was 2 sigma rich in august)
MJ, I bought Oct 18th so collected the divy waiting to see if they put in a call on Nov. 15th.
its not callable until next year (ordinary) at that date
I also paid 25.04 for argo.pra ..given 8.30 ex date i estimate stripped price to be near 24.71
ACCUMULATED begins on last Payment Date of 9/15 , NOT the ex-date. Stripped = 24.792 approx. Accum = .248 approx.
we have had this discussion before.. agreed
Calculating the Stripped Price
To calculate the stripped price of preferred stock, we need to consider the following:
Market Price of the Preferred Stock: This is the current market value of the stock, including both the stock itself and the accrued dividends.
Accrued Dividends: This is the portion of the next dividend payment that has accrued since the last dividend payment date.
The stripped price is calculated by subtracting the accrued dividends from the market price:
We have had the discussion before…. So how come you came up with a stripped price that would include the .073 approx additional that would include accumulated from 8/30 instead of starting on 9/15 when we agree, “Accrued Dividends: This is the portion of the next dividend payment that has accrued since the last dividend payment date?” Ex-div date is NOT the last dividend payment date. The last dividend payment date is the last dividend payment date.
Here’s my take on tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
No cut – unlikely as it would be a surprise…not Powell’s style.
One and wait – most likely…allows some breathing room before another move.
One and more – seems unlikely given today’s action in treasury yields.
Well-known, veteran technician Tom McClellan https://www.mcoscillator.com/ has been griping for years that the Fed would be better off setting the FFR to the 2-year treasury yield, thus avoiding being late to raise and to lower. Looking at the two rates plotted together makes the case credible.
Now, in today’s weird world of rates, if the Fed cuts 25bps tomorrow from 4.75-5% to 4.5-4.75%, the FFR will be close to meeting the rising 2-year yield at 4.27%. Will McClellan be happier? Maybe the front end will flatten out at 4.5%. https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
Can you remember the last time the fed made an unexpected rate move…one that was not already in the market? I cannot.
“Can you remember the last time the fed made an unexpected rate move…one that was not already in the market?”
The closest was the 50 bps rate cut. Market had that as low probability just days before the meeting and only 50/50 right before the meeting.
What? You don’t remember the emergency FOMC meetings in 2001 or 2002?
McClellan keeps beating that drum on the two year but there’s a basic error in his analysis. The 2 year is a forward looking rate while Fed Funds is an overnight rate. A forward looking rate is always going to lead the Fed Funds rate but that doesn’t mean it’s predictive.
Like Fed Funds Futures, the 2 year isn’t predicting what the Fed should do, it’s reacting to what it thinks the Fed will do. The 2 year rate matches exactly what you would expect based on Fed Fund Futures. Saying the Fed should set FFR based on the 2 year is like saying the Fed should set FFR based on Fed Fund Futures.
Conveniently, McClellan just tweeted the FFR + 2-year yield chart.
https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/1854389465160237320
on 29 oct whidbey islander wrote, “I just bought The Southern Company 4% issue (Baa3) at $98.324, which is callable on 1/15/26 for a 5.45% YTM. It then floats at the 5 year T plus 3.73%.”
Does anyone know the CUSIP of this issue? (I paged through the FWP’s from Southern back through 2021, couldn’t find a match.)
842587DF1
i checked schwab and fidelity and bonds are are not available
One veteran tweeter said that long-end yields are rising simply because the growth scare is over and yields are adjusting accordingly. True? Dunno.
This fits with the notion that the 10-year yield normally reflects nominal GDP. Today’s market action might lead you to believe that NGDP will be closer to 5+% rather than the current 4.43%.
I’m willing to wait to see where this goes before spending my 11% cash hoard, although it’s really burning a hole in my pocket with 6+% IG readily available.
I own the preferreds of eight banks, big and small. The common stocks of all had the same epiphany. The preferreds, nah.
Rock, you noticed the same thing I did. I’m okay with that as long as they are up!
I am about 17% cash and a lot of low ball gtc orders against it. After today it’s going to be a long time before they fill.
I bot DX.PRC 6.90 FTF 4/15/2025 3MONTH LIBOR +5.46 25.06 (24.90 Stripped given 10/1 ex date) … good article on S/A Dynex Capital Series C: Strong Risk/Reward For This Preferred Stock
Shifting sands… gold down, silver down, bitcoin stuff up-up, DJT media up.
At least my portfolio is standing still today.
Am about 44% cash equivalents for now. Waiting for major policy shifts.
Hoping Ukraine survives as it is.
Doesn’t Capitalism should have a Positive yield curve ? 3.5% fed Funds 5% ten year treasury and 6% Mortgage . I think any business that can not pay 6-8% interest on their debt , basically a “Zambi” that holds economy back and should be out of business opening the door for better . Homeowner who can not pay 6% mortgage should rent
Depends where you live and income ( surprise). A fairly large metro area near me has ave home prices of ~ 550K and a median of a little over 600k.
Add-in ins and taxes and the pmt is pretty hefty. A young couple there- each making ~100k said they can’t afford to buy. Maybe they just can’t come-up with a huge downpayment.
There might be some areas in the US with 200k homes, but not in many I would guess– ( if you wished to live there or wanted to move).
And- Newbie reported in the alerts section that mortg rates jumped to 7.13 to 7.25 % for 30 yrs- ouch.
If a young couple making 200K cannot afford to buy a 650K house after a few years they are doing so many things wrong I cannot begin to list them all. In summary they are just bad with money.
Fc, my nephew and his girlfriend ( married now) lived with his parents for 2 years and only one car while the other used BART. I guarantee you they were not buying a Starbucks latte every day. They bought a 60 yr old home in San Carlos. Yes they did have some help with the down payment. But it depends on how much you really want something.
“But it depends on how much you really want something.”
So true. I long for that Starbucks in-store unique coffee taste. Everyone knows what I mean.
However, I will just have to settle for the Nespresso pods. It’s what savers do, right?
fc-
I suspect many of those couples are paying off student loan debt.
I thought about that after I posted but all they would have to do is delay however many months/years and hit them hard with that wonderful 200K combined salary. It is why I said after a few years because they would probably need some time to get organized, pay things off, and then save a bit for the down payment. With no kids and some sacrifices spending wise they could do really well really fast even in a HCOL state (assuming a SFH is 650K and not 1.5M). We are talking like 3K per week after taxes.
I guess it just depends on how bad you want to do something. All I know is that they will have an easier time compared to most younger kids making less.
I basically thought the same- that’s why I mentioned the downpayment- might take awhile to sock it away. Or they were looking at those over a million- many are well over that. Oh- and there’s always student debt hanging around for many.
With less buyers prices would come down 20-30% and home will become more affordable . Ownership involves much more than making mortgage payments . Maintenance for an example
You can buy a very nice home for 250K where I live in Indiana, with very reasonable taxes and below average cost of living. And on the humorous side, with global warming, even the weather is not so bad.
I was surprised at the size of the home Mike Pence had for under $ 2 mill in Indiana. I have a younger friend..early 30’s who moved to Indy from NY.
He told me he’s considered worldly in Indiana because he has a passport.
True?
It really does depend on location. Here in Silicon Valley older “starter homes” (1000 sq ft, originally built as federally subsidized housing in the 1960s) are about $1.5M in south San Jose ( southern edge of the valley) and close to $2M as you look north (Sunnyvale, etc.).
I have been helping a young couple (friends of one of my kids) try to figure out how to buy a house (they want a yard for their kids). Between mortgage rates, property tax ($16-22K year), and insurance, they are struggling to get there – and they have an income over $300K/year – especially for the down payment. They are considering buying a “fixer upper” in pretty bad shape, but the wife is very unhappy to think of spending that much money on something that needs so much work.
my crystal ball tells me they will get there, and that my sons and I will end up in tool belts…
Anyone having SGOV divs arrive today at Fidelity (maybe others?), check the amounts paid. Really strange- they overpaid in my ROTH and underpaid in the IRA. The div is 0.415164 /sh
Gaack ! –another call to them.
Correct amount paid today at Schwab for me.
I got the correct amount paid at Fidelity.
This is NOT a political post (disclaimer)….Now that Trump has won I’m curious how many of you see the best and worst investment opportunities while he’s in office. What is the play? Banks? Energy? And what section of preferreds do you think will do well which will suffer? I seek your opinions and knowledge (and guesses!).
I am a net seller of all preferred stocks. Not in a panic way, but I am accelerating net sales of preferred stock. I see interest rates going up, and I see spreads between Treasuries and preferred stocks widening. I see federal budget deficits soaring. I see a return to a nineteenth century regimen of tariffs to be a disaster if implemented. A failure or partial failure to implement tariffs could lead a world of chaos and uncertainty. Finally, I see the black box of private equity/finance as a disaster waiting to happen.
This is also NOT a political post. This is what I am doing with my money.
Dono, you just picked one of many mines in a minefield waiting to get stepped on. But I agree. P.E. is a ticking time bomb. I think with their tentacles around insurance and retirement holdings that government pensions have given them money to invest in they’re hoping that if it all blows up the government will come to the rescue.
I see the opposite. Trump will want a better economy so he will put pressure on to cut interest rates and preferreds will go higher lol just a country opinion. Good subject for conversation though if we can leave any politely bias out.
Libero, to keep politics out of it I compare it to when I was a teenager and we had discussions about who made the better Muscle car Ford or Chevy. But then it really came down to how much I was willing to pay. That hasn’t changed since then. Not much any president can do about rates unless they can lower the trillions of dollars in debt the US has built up. The bond traders want to be paid for the risk of holding these bonds. That is what determines the rates.
There are people in Congress who talk about cutting government spending to reduce the debt but there is also talk about cutting taxes. I have never seen that work that I can remember in my life. The last time 8 yrs ago taxes were cut the deficit grew.
In the early 70’s the space race ended then the Nam war ended. When that happened government spending went down and without the money going into the economy unemployment went up.
I don’t think we have that long to wait to see what happens in the next year.
Tariffs are probably a 100% certainty. He already put them in during his prior administration and can do that without Congress.
Any other tax law changes would need to be from Congress, and with a divided Congress, I doubt much of anything tax-wise gets put in before 2027. (though they may deal with the expiring tax cuts from the 2018 bill first)
It could change. Odds, as of today, is that it will be one-party rule for both branches of Congress.
Senate takes 60 vote.
Yes, 60 votes for the Senate but there are exceptions. The number of votes for the filibuster is dependent on senate rules. It can be lowered before the Senate session is started. Not going to happen? It happened with federal judges (by a Democrat controlled Senate) and with the Supreme Court (by a Republican controlled senate).
Hopefully, the Senate filibuster rules are not changed. We should know early in Jan. In the last Republican presidency, the President wanted the filibuster rules changed. McConnell was adamant that he would not change them. McConnell is serving out his term but he will not be in Senate leadership, so this makes it worth keeping an eye on.
SteveA, Nice try at equating. The Republican move on Supreme Court was in response to one of the most historic political blunders by Harry Reid and his ownership of relaxing filibuster rules for federal judges. Also, the Senate filibuster rules have frustrated many a POTUS with their party controlling the Senate, not just Trump. There is no more chance now than before on relaxing those rules. Lust for power shows no favor to any political party.
I did not try any nice moves. I left it at facts.
Time will tell whether the filibuster rules are changed or not. I would not have been surprised with a Hariss win that the demicrars would have changed the filibuster rules either. It has been discussed by both parties as you pointed out. my point is 60 is not a given. It is a rule the majority can change from time to time.
Preferreds may indeed be topped out only direction is down. But I’m not giving up the high dividends and the trading opps just yet, they make up for the risk. As long as nobody defaults I’m making money. I did sell some of the more volatile issues and bought those that don’t move as much. but definitely still in the game.
These spreads are way too tight. Perhaps short HYG
doncash: What, no ammo ? LOL ! Just kidding. I don’t have a clue myself, just going to keep collecting the dividends and interest for now and see where it goes. I have increased my position in some refinery company bonds (PBF). I don’t think fossil fuels are going away anytime soon.
Tariffs will have similar effect as any other sales tax increase. May be a hardship on imported goods only but tax increases do NOT cause spiraling Inflation, they’re just redistribution of the same dollars. Spiraling inflation is caused by increasing the money supply. Government can’t stop overspending their means so they spread nonsense about other causes of Inflation.
Yes, tariffs will have an effect like a sales tax. But, unless, we have something that has never occurred before, they will impact our export costs also. Countries will increase their tariffs on our exports which likely reduces demand for them.
Will decreased production force companies to raise prices domestically so that the supplier can stay in business? We will see. This is the new domestic situation that we need to plan for.
The election is over and the results are coming in –
Winners
Financials – up 4.4%
Energy +3.06%
Industrials +2.9%
Losers
Real estate -1.7 %
Consumer staples -0.9%
Utilities -0.94%
Results based on a review of SPDR Select Sectors at ~10 am. A Bloomberg Business Radio reporter made a good call this morning – he called the win for financials pre-market.
Personally I am wondering how preferreds will perform. Up on rate cuts as CD rates decline.? Or down on higher long rates? Right now, my very unselective random preferred tick list looks weak. Following up on earlier posts, I think preferreds linked to declining short rates like SOFR are less desirable than preferreds linked to long Treasuries. JMO. DYODD.
JMO. DYODD.
Bear-
“I think preferreds linked to declining short rates like SOFR are less desirable than preferreds linked to long Treasuries.” Sounds logical based on recent trends in rates. Now, about “logical” and “recent”…
I wonder how asset prices will react if the 10 year trends above 4.5%.
Franklin, I haven’t thought about it yet. But I can say is pig pile mentioned on this forum that it seems it’s more about trading instead of buy and hold an just collect the money. Personally I have had the same complaint the last 4 years as I steadily bought preferreds on dips in the market. I was hoping to hold, but between getting something called and bad news affecting what I hold I have had to constantly adjust my holdings which means I have to trade. No way around it unless I go all in on CD’s and treasuries.
Too early in the game to guess where the overall market is going and which sectors are going to fall. A lot depends on what the new administration does. I for one am watching what affects tariffs will do if they are instituted.
It’s a very high risk area, but I think the preferred stocks of FNMA and FMCC are worth exploring. They went up about 75% today when the election was announced under the assumption that the Trump administration will attempt to release them from their federal conservatorship, but they are still only trading at 25% of face value. If (and it’s a big if) the stated plan to re-privatize them continues, and if a bunch of questionable assumptions turn out to be true, they should more than triple in value over the next couple years. This is definitely a DYODD situation, and there are lots of risks, but it’s definitely a play dependent on Trump’s win with a possibly high return. Here’s an archive of an SA article that explains the opportunity better: https://archive.is/o69l0
Re : SMCI
I’m covering my short here at 24 or below as company saying no timetable for producing annual results.
This was obviously going to be said as I don’t think they even have an auditor but this may be the last day for this trade just because all institutional should have recognized it’s coming out of the 500.
$12.50 profit per share nicely more than offsets the loss on the election
Old timer’s advice……..
Do not Sell on days of disruption
Well, I certainly woke up to a whole new world of invest this morning! Interestingly market futures are roaring upwards. We’ll see what the days ahead hold. There will certainly be winners and losers, but too early to see who falls where to me yet.. one thing certain. It will be interesting times with all of the stated plans of the new president!!!
912810rd2 the 19 year treasury has the high yield at 4.78 pct.
My recollection of the last Trump tax bill was the talk of getting rid of tax exempt bonds.
I think this gets put on the table again and the only question is what happens to existing tax frees.
I’d hate to lose the tax exemption on half my income but I won’t be buying any tax free bonds until the situation is clear
Wednesday morning…..
Well my Uncertainty anxiety is confirmed.
We’ll see where the markets go from here.
Buckle your seat belts.
SGOV or BIL will be the best play as short rates and cash will be the best rolling way to preserve capital and perhaps stay in front of the dislocation US and world markets will experience. Maybe this way you get 1-2% over inflation which will ramp up probably initially, but then a possibility of deflation as spending stops in govt and people pull back. You cant have inflation if people aren’t buying things. Even that way cash and short term rates will keep you ‘ahead.’ Of course gold does well in uncertainty and deflation. Just my initial thoughts. The Avi Gilburt scenario of Great-Er depression is a likely scenario w trade wars and uncertainty probably a slow steady grind lower as he predicts… But chaos breeds opportunity so stay alert!! Cash lets you take advantage of dislocation, the cornerstone of my portfolio for years! glta.. so many good folks here, my best wishes of course.. Bea
I had really hoped the cat lady would of won. Take care Bea.
Yes – we need to adjust to a new reality. Good advice Bea
Steve I had considered gold but hard to say which side of the trade to stand on. As the dollar is worth less it takes more to buy a once of gold on the other hand if we hit a deflationary economy there will be less interest in gold and the value will go down. I’ve followed for years and no interest in holding a lot of gold as it earns no interest. Best I have learned is follow the gold miners and the ones with the lowest production costs and in the safest parts of the world. Another way to do this is buy an ETF. or a gold RoyalCo that pays out a dividend.
I will hold cash. CLIP paid 4.8% last month. Even if the fed cuts rates 0.25% tomorrow that will be 4.55%. Good enough to see what the market does. I sold a bunch of lower coupon issues last week. To me, the bond market is pricing in more inflation due to much bigger deficits. One party control is never something that Wall Street has favored.
Have you looked at CLIP? Similar to SGOV and BIL. If you have, any opinion? Thanks
Re : my bet on Harris.
As it turns out it’s not only a loss but also not a hedge .
9 hours before the market opens and I saw the 10 year hit 4.46 before dropping .
Depends on what you were hedging. Regional bank index is up 8%. That could have been down 8% under a different election scenario.
Landlord, I played both sides of the fence. Yes, all the banks are up but the preferred not as much. But I’m not complaining.
Some guy in France bet $40 million on Trump.
I can’t imagine gambling on anything with that much money, let alone an election in a foreign country.
I guess you don’t have $40 million to start with unless you have good instincts, but my goodness…
Scott, the people who bet on election outcomes need to seek help for addiction.
Is there a list that I can filter for securities that reset on the 5-Year Treasury specifically, as opposed to SOFR, etc.?
— It’s possibly more work than you want, but Tim maintains a fixed to floating preferred list on this site. The ticker symbol links are live. You can click on each stock ticker for details. As long as your search universe is time-limited, you will have a short list to deal with. There are less than two dozen resets before 2026.
— This is the sort of question that screams for AI. Once prospectuses filed with the SEC start getting dumped into AI, it should be easy to do a such a search. I had no luck doing an AI chat. I got generalities but no specific issues. A general Google search yielded a fairly large number of click throughs, more work than it was worth. Just my two cents.
Another list to look at for your research – S&P U.S. Floating Rate Preferred Stock Index. Your task if you choose to accept it, is to find the index “components” list on the S&P site. The Fact Sheet says there are only 10.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/fixed-income/sp-us-floating-rate-preferred-stock-index/
There is also the S&P U.S. Variable Rate Preferred Stock Index. It has 58 components, 10 of which are disclosed in the fact sheet.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/fixed-income/sp-us-variable-rate-preferred-stock-index/#overview
JMO. DYODD.
I look each one up myself. not depending on a two bit site to accurately report them. 5 Year T is lower than Libor/Sofr now but that’s not always the case especially when rates are low. So I share a slight preference for T indexed issues. But I can’t predict the future so I have some of everything.
RITM -D is my top T choice instead of their sofr indexed funds though I trade between sometimes on price movement. Playing the field sometimes works better than holding what you think is best.
My database shows these as resets based on the US Treasury 5 year. Data is in a CSV format.
Ticker, Pref or Baby, %margin above UST5, Reset Date
You absolutely, positively MUST double check these numbers before taking any position.
AGNCL,Pref,4.39%,10/15/27
ANG-A,Pref,4.322%,12/1/24
ANG-B,Pref,6.297%,9/1/25
ARGO-A,Pref,6.712%,9/15/25
ATH-C,Pref,5.97%,9/30/25
ATH-E,Pref,3.962%,12/30/27
BANC-F,Pref,4.82%,9/1/27
CNOBP,Pref,4.42%,9/1/26
EBBGF,Pref,3.14%,6/1/28
EBBNF,Pref,3.15%,9/1/27
EBGEF,Pref,2.82%,3/1/29
EFC-B,Pref,4.99%,1/30/27
EFC-C,Pref,5.13%,4/30/28
FTAIM,Pref,5.162%,6/15/28
FTAIN,Pref,7.378%,6/15/26
HBANL,Pref,2.704%,4/15/28
HTLFP,Pref,6.675%,7/25/25
JXN-A,Pref,3.728%,3/29/28
KEY-L,Pref,3.132%,12/15/27
MBINM,Pref,4.34%,10/1/27
MSBIP,Pref,4.713%,9/30/27
RF-F,Pref,2.771%,9/15/29
RITM-D,Pref,6.223%,11/15/26
RWT-A,Pref,6.278%,4/15/28
SNV-E,Pref,4.127%,7/1/29
SYF-B,Pref,4.044%,5/15/29
VLYPN,Pref,4.182%,9/30/29
VOYA-B,Pref,3.21%,9/15/29
WSBCP,Pref,6.557%,11/25/25
WTFCP,Pref,6.507%,7/15/25
APOS,Baby,3.226%,9/15/28
ASBA,Baby,2.812%,3/1/28
ATHS,Baby,2.986%,3/30/29
KMPB,Baby,4.14%,3/15/27
RZC,Baby,3.456%,10/17/27
Great list, thanks Tex!
Thanks for posting that research, Tex. Is that database your own spreadsheet?
JP–Tex the 2nd has always been very generous with data. We have a similar list on the site with all the preferred issues.
https://innovativeincomeinvestor.com/floating-rate-and-fixed-to-floating-rate-preferred-stocks/
Missing from Tex’s list
SPNT-B
Missing from Tim’s list
ASBA
ANG-A
ANG-B
EBBGF
EBGEF
Mislabeled on Tim’s list
APOS (missing FFR label)
RZC (missing FFR label)
VOYA-B (labeled FF)
ANG-A is the new symbol for AEL-A, and likewise ANG-B replaced AEL-B. AEL-A and -B are shown as redeemed on Tim’s list, but could be reactivated with the new symbols.
Thanks rocks
r2stocks-
I don’t see a problem with those last three– they are FFR – all on his list.
Gary-
I see that Tim added FRR to APOS and WCC-A but not RZC. The label on VOYA-B has been corrected. Thanks for noticing and thanks to Tim.
Thanks Tex! I was missing a couple of these on my local list that I’ll add, but I also had a couple listed that you didn’t mention:
SPNT-B,Pref,7.298%,2/26/2026
WCC-A,Pref,10.325%,6/22/2025
Since these aren’t on Tex’s list, it’s doubly possible that I’ve messed something up, so do confirm. And if anyone happens to know anything about these, do tell me!
Nathan-
Good catch on WCC-A. Here’s my list again including WCC-A
Missing from Tex’s list
SPNT-B
WCC-A
Missing from Tim’s list
ASBA
ANG-A
ANG-B
EBBGF
EBGEF
Mislabeled on Tim’s list
APOS (missing FFR label)
RZC (missing FFR label)
WCC-A (missing FFR label)
VOYA-B (labeled FF)
Thanks again – tweaking data.
I hold a part of my securities at Fidelity which has been okay until recently. Within the last month, they instituted new restrictions on trading amounts so when I want to try to sell 500 or 1000 shares of preferred, I get an error message even if the stock has traded 5,000-7,000 shares already. I guess they want me to sell in pieces of 100 shares.
Can someone recommend a good substitute securities firm (executes orders over an app) that is preferred friendly? Preferably large enough to have an office in Dallas?
Hang in there Potter. There are folks here, including myself, who are engaging with Fidelity to get this corrected. I don’t have any details yet, but as soon as I do I’ll post here.
Rocky Mountain Hiker, thank you for contacting Fido. I spoke with them and they told me it was some SEC regulation. I found that regulation and found nothing about the size restriction they recently put on some of my orders.
Potter – just an fyi. They told me the restriction was related to the average trade size, not the average daily volume (like the 5-7K shs you cited for the stock you were looking to sell). I was swapping between RCB and RCC. After being allowed to trade 100 shares in my first order, they kept restricting my subsequent orders to fewer and fewer shares. I checked RCC’s trades during the last few days – most were for fewer than 100 shares, so it jived with what they said (though not the SEC reg they cited).
Potter, I agree with Rocky that I would NOT dump Fidelity quite yet. I assure you that every brokerages has it’s quirks. Like spouses, there is NOT a perfect one, present company excluded. So changing from Fido or any other brokerage, changes one set of issues for another set.
If III’ers want to make a difference, I strongly suggest everyone go to the Reddit Fidelity page and write up their protest. It is VERY public and Fido hates negative publicity, particularly when the whole world can see it. I think it might be more effective than calling in if there are say 50 complaints.
It also would not hurt to go down to the Northwest Highway or Plano office and speak to the branch manager in person. Can’t hurt.
Link:
https://www.reddit.com/r/fidelityinvestments/?rdt=35671
Once again, we have affiliation with Fidelity, but do manage some accounts there.
I spoke with my team today on this issue.
Thanks to this wonderful site, I told him that my order volume did not violate any quantity regulations.
He admitted it is an Fidelity imposed limit.
I asked for an exemption and he response was something to the effect that this is not the first time he had been asked to “open the window” for the larger trade.
We need to keep up the pressure on them to GO BIG OR GO HOME.
Thanks for the link Tex, I’ve posted a comment on this topic.
If a company values their treasure shares at cost on the balance sheet, and during the quarter treasury shares increased, and total dollar value decreased, how could that happen? My only thought was that during the quarter they sold some shares and bought them back lower but there must be another answer.
Dufus,
From memory (which dates to 1982 accounting degree from U Texas) there are alternative methods of valuing treasury stock. The method and valuation would be disclosed in the Notes to the Financial statements.
I believe “cost” and “Par” are the alternative methods but let me know if the Notes answer your questions
They just state “cost” for both on balance sheet for STRT for the quarter, just don’t know that I’ve ever run into that before
Dufua,
I briefly scanned the fs out of curiosity and it looks like they are issuing shares to employees out of T/S . I’d check the valuation of those shares.
Beyond that, I don’t have an answer
We have an Employee Stock Purchase Plan to provide substantially all U.S. full-time associates an opportunity to purchase shares of STRATTEC
common stock through payroll deductions. A participant may contribute a maximum of $5,200 per calendar year to the plan. On the last day of each month or if such date is not a trading day on the most recent previous trading day, participant account balances are used to purchase shares of our common stock at the average of the highest and lowest reported sales prices of a share of STRATTEC common stock on the NASDAQ Global Market on such date. A total of 100,000 shares may be issued under the plan. Shares issued from treasury stock under the plan totaled 2,998 at an average price of $24.08 during 2024 and 3,342 at an average price of $22.24 during 2023. A total of 42,804 shares remain available for purchase under the plan as of June 30, 2024.
I’ve limited myself to 20,000 Harris contracts , not 100k, which is good because I’m already losing 6 cents per.
Relying on the Dixville Notch vote turned out to be a poor idea.
What could I have been thinking?
When did you buy? I got Harris at an avg price of 40.50 at IBKR. It’s already up to 45.
Good hedge because I think there will be a negative market reaction if she wins. Although, hard to risk much with a binary payout.
Mostly yesterday morning. Cheapest was .35 last week
Was this at IBKR? Price is up to 45 cents now, so you’re up 10 cents, not down 6.
Here’s my election prediction: T won’t run in ’28.
Here’s my election strategy. Whoever wins sit back and wait for the retail investor overreaction, Then play the opposite side.
martin–good advice I think.
I tried that in 2016 and the stocks I shorted just kept running. I guess the problem was it was unexpected.
Election Triva …. Over past 12 Presidential Elections ( 1976 ~ 2020 ) ….
Each Party has won SIX times.
Widest win = 1984 Reagan 97.6% of votes ….
Narrow win = 2000 George Bush 50.5% vs Gore
Above %-ages are of Electoral Votes …. 538 Electoral
Jim,
Reagan maybe got 96.4 pct of electors, not votes.
I think the Dem (Mondale?)won his own state?
He won in his home state of Minnesota.
He pretty much just said this a little bit ago, FYI to those interested.
Bought more ET-I on today’s ex-date at 11.69, CY 7.2%, replacing some 4.5% in money market.
Hey R2S,
just be careful not to own it in a retirement account. IIRC, its divi is UBTI (you should double check me if you own/want to own)
Thanks, Private. By chance, I own it in my margin account. My position size is probably an order of magnitude smaller than yours, so I really don’t worry about UBTI.
Re Fidelity & Direct Market Access
Their response:
“We hear you on this frustration and are working on this now. We will see if there is an alternative solution and get back to you within this week. “
FWIW… I had a Fidelity representative today tell me that you call to have a market order window opened ask for the “active trader team”.
he said that internally they’ve decided that this would be a more efficient way to process these orders because they’ve seen an uptick in their personel resource usage trying to deal with with these market window orders.
FWIW…
thanx to folks along w me who are pounding FIDO on this access to infrequently traded issues, if they are getting a lot more ‘personnel’ expense and phone calls it might actually change. unreal. But then again we went years to get floaters ok until the income desk got sick of the calls I guess. always something. I guess I am more concerned about the thinly traded common stocks I invest in from time to time.